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Sample Size Calculation for Polling

A pollster wants to predict a candidate's vote share in the US presidential election with a margin of error of +/- 3% and 95% confidence level. To calculate the needed sample size, the formula is: margin of error = |NORM.INV(0.05/2,0,1)| * √(p*(1-p)/n). Using a conservative estimate of p=0.5, the required sample size is approximately 1068 voters.

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5 views15 pages

Sample Size Calculation for Polling

A pollster wants to predict a candidate's vote share in the US presidential election with a margin of error of +/- 3% and 95% confidence level. To calculate the needed sample size, the formula is: margin of error = |NORM.INV(0.05/2,0,1)| * √(p*(1-p)/n). Using a conservative estimate of p=0.5, the required sample size is approximately 1068 voters.

Uploaded by

Prottoy
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

How big a Sample to take?


Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

 A pollster wanting to make a prediction about a particular


candidate’s vote share in the US presidential election.
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

 A pollster wanting to make a prediction about a particular


candidate’s vote share in the US presidential election.

How many voters should the pollster survey?


Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

 A pollster wanting to make a prediction about a particular


candidate’s vote share in the US presidential election.

How many voters should the pollster survey?

The pollster in the prediction wants to have a margin of error +/- 3% with a
confidence level of 95%
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Margin of error = 0.03


Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Margin of error = 0.03 =


Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Margin of error = 0.03 =

0.03 = |[Link](0.05/2, 0, 1)| x

0.03 = 1.96 x
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Margin of error = 0.03 =

0.03 = |[Link](0.05/2, 0, 1)| x

0.03 = 1.96 x

n = x
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Margin of error = 0.03 =

0.03 = |[Link](0.05/2, 0, 1)| x

0.03 = 1.96 x

What value do we
use for ?
n = x
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Use a conservative estimate of


Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Use a conservative estimate of

n = x
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Use a conservative estimate of

n = x
Sample Size Calculation for the Population Proportion

Use a conservative estimate of

n = x

n = x

n = 1067.11 ≈ 1068
Sample Size Calculation

 Many industries use rule-of-thumb strategies/heuristics

 We provided here some basis for choosing an appropriate sample


size

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