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Even with strict containment measures, COVID 19

could claim 22,000 lives, federal officials project
PM says physical distancing, quarantines are 'new normal' until vaccine is developed

Kathleen Harris · CBC News · Posted: Apr 09, 2020 8:52 AM ET | Last Updated: 42 minutes ago

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau updates Canadians on the latest measures the federal government is taking to
slow the spread of COVID-19. 0:00

comments

Federal health officials are saying there could be nearly 32,000 cases of COVID-19 and between
500 and 700 deaths in Canada by April 16 — and anywhere from 11,000 to 22,000 deaths over
the course of the pandemic, even with relatively strong control measures in place.

That projection emerged Thursday morning as officials released modelling on how the COVID-19
crisis could unfold in the country, and suggested that containment measures, such as physical
distancing and quarantines, could be in place for months to come.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau conceded that it won't be easy to continue those measures
because the first wave of the virus could last until the summer, with other outbreaks erupting
after that.

Trudeau said he could not predict how long those measures will be required, but said some
experts estimate it will take six to eight months to develop a vaccine, while others suggest it
could take a year to 18 months.

He pleaded with Canadians to step up to meet what he called the "challenge of the generation"
and said Canada is at a "fork in the road" between the best and worst outcomes.

"This will be the new normal until a vaccine is developed," he said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says it will take months of Canadians' "continued, determined effort" to follow
pandemic measures such as physical distancing to overcome COVID-19. 1:55

Longer-term projections look at scenarios involving strong controls (one to 10 per cent of the

population infected, called the "green zone" scenario), weaker controls (25 to 50 per cent of the
population infected, the "blue zone") and no controls at all (70-80 per cent infected, the "red
zone").

If about 2.5 to five per cent of the population became infected, that would mean between
934,000 and 1.9 million cases. That would also mean up to 22,000 deaths and between 23,000
and 46,000 ICU admissions.

LIVE BLOG RECAP COVID-19 April 9 update: Trudeau addresses Canadians | Special
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If no containment measures had been taken (which was not the case in Canada), officials said
there would have been about 300,000 deaths. 

Officials said the caseload in Canada is doubling every three to five days, which is considered a
relatively positive trajectory compared to other countries. Chief Public Health Officer Theresa
Tam said that is in large part because of lessons learned from other countries about how strong
control measures can limit the spread of the virus.

Tam said she is hopeful that Canada can stay in the green zone and keep infections and deaths
relatively low. 

'Prevent every death that we can'

She warned that measures that can create "hardships" are critical to keeping ICU admissions and
deaths as low as possible.

"We can't prevent every death, but we must prevent every death that we can," she said.

Tam said it's too early to know how close Canada is nationally to seeing a "peak" in transmission.
But she cautioned that even as we start to see a decline in transmissions, Canadians will have to
stay the course with preventative measures to keep the pandemic from re-igniting.

LIVE BLOG RECAP COVID-19 update: Health Canada releases COVID-19 modelling

ANALYSIS What national COVID-19 modelling can tell us — and what it can't

"What we do together now will buy us more time to further understand the virus and to develop
treatments and vaccines," she said.
"We are the authors of our fate. Together we can plank the epidemic curve."

Tam said that if 2.5 per cent of the population were infected, it would inflict strains on the
health care system.

Canada's chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models are "imperfect" but that they can help
understand the state and trajectory of the pandemic and the effect of public health measures to combat the
spread of COVID-19. 1:03

Tam said officials will monitor the evolution of the outbreak and its trajectory, and "recalibrate"
guidance for Canadians based on how the curve is bending.

"It is a pretty dynamic process," she said.

Officials are working to improve testing and lab capacity to detect and trace cases.

The analysis of how many people could become infected, get sick or die from the virus comes
just before the long holiday weekend.

Tam said the models are "imperfect" but they can help people understand the state of the
pandemic and where it might go, along with the effect of public health measures on the
transmission of the virus.

Several provinces have already released projections. Ontario estimates the number of deaths in
the province could hit 3,000 to 15,000 over the course of the pandemic, which could last up to
two years. 

Repeated advice

Trudeau has told Canadians repeatedly that how fast and far the virus spreads will depend
largely on how closely they follow public health advice, including physical distancing, hand-
washing and staying home whenever possible.

His remarks come as Statistics Canada reported Thursday that Canada's economy lost more
than one million jobs in March, pushing the jobless rate up to 7.8 per cent.

"Obviously, this is difficult news. This is news that reflects, particularly in the job numbers, a
reality that millions of Canadians have been feeling over the past weeks, that the real impact, not
just on our economy, but on the lives of Canadians, of workers, of families, of communities, is
significant and real," he said. 

"But what we're also seeing in numbers from different parts of the country is that there is a light
at the end of this tunnel, that if we keep doing the things that we're doing, as we've been doing,
as we've seen in other countries, we are able to minimize the level of the impact of this wave of
COVID19."

Asked when measures such as border closures might be eased, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia
Freeland said it would be "foolhardy in the extreme" to offer a guess at this point, given the
uncertainties surrounding the pandemic.

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