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KSE Top Sectors 2009-2010 Analysis

The top three sectors of the KSE during 2009-2010 were construction and materials with a turnover of 14.6 billion, oil & gas with a turnover of 13 billion, and banks with a turnover of 9.3 billion. Construction materials faced threats from increases in fuel prices and interest rates, while opportunities existed in expanding exports. Oil & gas opportunities included Afghanistan's market and deregulation allowing new investments, while banks saw opportunities in consumer banking and lending to the manufacturing sector.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views5 pages

KSE Top Sectors 2009-2010 Analysis

The top three sectors of the KSE during 2009-2010 were construction and materials with a turnover of 14.6 billion, oil & gas with a turnover of 13 billion, and banks with a turnover of 9.3 billion. Construction materials faced threats from increases in fuel prices and interest rates, while opportunities existed in expanding exports. Oil & gas opportunities included Afghanistan's market and deregulation allowing new investments, while banks saw opportunities in consumer banking and lending to the manufacturing sector.

Uploaded by

Ali Sandhu
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

TOP THREE SECTORS OF KSE DURING 2009-2010?

The top three sectors during 2009-2010 are construction and material , oill & gas and banks.

The turnover:

Cinstruction and material 14,602,598.

Oil & gas 13,001,184

Banks 9,326,588.

Threats to construction and material :

Historical Profile of Cement Industry

The cement industry in Pakistan has grown gradually with the passage of time. Atthe time of
independence there were only four units with total production capacityof nearly half a million
tons per annum. By 1972 the number of cement plantsincreased to 14 and the production
capacity also increased to 2.5 million tons. Bothpublic and private sectors took initiative to
establish new plants. As was the case forother industries, the cement industry was also
nationalized in 1972 and the StateCement Corporation of Pakistan (SCCP) was established
and given the responsibilityto manage the production of cement in the country.  With a
change in policy of state control over industrialunits, the state owned cement plants were also
put-up for privatization along withother industries. The private sector was allowed to invest
in the cementmanufacturing. Consequently, the role of SCCP as market leader vanished
graduallyand currently it owns only four plants, of which two have been closed down
onefficiency and profitability grounds. In view of the higher demand during the periodof de-
regulation and liberalization, a number of new units were set up and manyothers invested
heavily to increase their existing production capacity. As a result,the production capacity has
reached 17.7 million tons per annum during 2003.

Sector overview

There are 29 cement production units in the country. Up to May 2007, the totalinstalled
cement production capacity is 36.841 million tones. By the end of June2011, the installed
cement production capacity will touch to the level of 49.579million [Link] to political
instability and lack of allocation of funds for publicsector development program, cement
industry of Pakistan was in the recessionphase had registered an average growth rate of
2.96% for the period from 1990 to2002. For the period from 2003 to 2009 cement industry of
Pakistan had registeredan average growth rate of 20%.The boost in cement sector is because
of therising construction activity in the country, reconstruction activity in Afghanistan
andincreasing development expenditure by the governmen

Threats:

Unanticipated increase in interest rates or less than expected demand growth might create
severe cresis for the sector couple of years forward.

Main component of the cost is [Link],s cement industry has converted thier plants to
coal considering it to be the cheapest fuel, but its price in international markets as gone up by
300 percent in the last one year ,which directly relate increasing the cost of production.

Instead of apprciating the marketing skill of cement enterprenuers to explore new markets for
cement,the industry is being pressurized constantly without realizing that any reduction in
cement exports from pakistan will not only deprive the cuntry of foreign exchange , but will
also result in losses in past .

Opportunities:

Deregulation after accession of pakistan to WTO is expected to open the window of


competition from cheaper markets .there may be no tariffs after this deregulation on import of
cement allowing its entry into Pakistan from cheaper market at lower rate. Cement from
cheaper markets may also block Pakistan,s export of cement to its neighbouring countries.
New avenues for export of cement are opening up for indigenous industry as Sri lanka has
shown interest to import 30,000 tons cement from pakistan every month. If the industry is
able to avail the opportunity offered, it may secure a significant share of sri lanka market by
supplying 360,000 tons of cement annually.

Oil and gas:

Pakistan produces approximately 54,000b/d of crude oil and gas liquids (from reserves
estimated at
289mn barrels), but consumes some 353,000b/d of oil. While there is no prospect of Pakistan
reaching self-sufficiency in oil, the government is encouraging the development of domestic
production and has been targeting 100,000b/d by 2010. In our view, this is highly optimistic,
although planned privatisation of virtually all state oil companies could stimulate investment,
activity and drilling success. Refining capacity to the end of 2005 was just over 300,000b/d,
barely enough to cope with domestic fuels demand even if running at full capacity. At normal
utilisation rates, the country is increasingly dependent on refined product imports.

Opportunities

[Link]'s Market is the biggest opportunity for OMCs in Pakistan.

[Link]-regularities of Oil industry in Pakistan add the opportunity to fill the deficiency in few
sectors of

petrochemicals markets.

[Link] Opportunities of Black Oil Products is also adding the opportunities by exporting
Black Oil products,

which is facing downfall due to the introduction Gas Oil.

The lapsing in December 2004 of the WTO’s Multifibre Agreement, which regulates

the global textile trade, will provide Pakistan with an opportunity to boost exports.

The local textile industry is competitive enough to prosper in a free-trade

environment.

Threats

Pakistan’s military-backed government lacks legitimacy and may abandon economic

reforms for fear of alienating public opinion.


Surging world oil prices pose a threat to Pakistan’s balance of payments. Pakistan
imports more than 50mn barrels of oil a year to satisfy local demand for fuel products
and record-high prices have led to a widening of the trade deficit

Risk of Diversification in technology is also a key threat for PSO as due to new technology
used in

industrial sector are causing decline in particular POL products.

Banks:

Financial Sector in Pakistan possesses a wide spectrum of financial institutions -Commercial


banks, specialized banks, national savings schemes, insurancecompanies, development
finance institutions, investment banks, stock exchanges,corporate brokerage houses, leasing
companies, discount houses, micro-financeinstitutions and Islamic [Link] offer a whole
range of products and servicesboth on the assets and liabilities side. Financial deepening has
intensified during thelast several years but the commercial banks are by far the predominant
playersaccounting for 90 percent of the total financial assets of the system.

The Banking sector is an integral part of the country’s financial services industry. Thesector
witnessed a phenomenal growth in 2001-03 where deposits rose by almost100%. There are
39 scheduled banks (including 11 foreign banks) operating [Link] is
relatively high, especially after the challenging capitaladequacy benchmarks set by the State
Bank of Pakistan to nourish a stable [Link] foreign investment and
winning profitable customers are the onlyoptions left to banks for survival.

Opportunities for banks, especially in consumer and retail banking, are greaterthan ever
[Link] the financial year of 2009-2010, the banking sector experiencedgrowth rates of 21%
and 36% in its deposit and advances portfolio respectively, whichin turn, has increased the
banks’ stability as compared to the preceding year.

A significant shift of focus from industrial lending to consumer products has allowedthe
banks to enjoy enormous spreads. However, the manufacturing sector is stillenjoying the
highest share in credit facilities extended by the banking industr.
Threats:

Money laundering and white-collar crimes are on the rampant. Aggressive andcomprehensive
mechanism should be set-up to save the domestic bankingindustry of the country.

Common questions

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To address competitive challenges, Pakistan's banking sector could leverage foreign investment by enhancing its capital adequacy benchmarks and focusing on attracting profitable customers. By fostering a more robust financial environment, foreign investors may find the sector appealing, facilitating technology transfers and improved management practices. Emphasizing consumer and retail banking, which presents significant growth potential, could further enhance competitiveness. Additionally, expanding digital banking services and financial inclusion strategies could make the sector more attractive for foreign investors while boosting local economic participation and stability .

Export opportunities with countries like Sri Lanka positively influence Pakistan's cement industry by expanding market reach and increasing foreign exchange earnings. Sri Lanka's interest to import 30,000 tons of cement monthly represents a chance to secure a consistent market for Pakistan's cement producers, potentially exporting 360,000 tons annually . To capitalize on these opportunities, Pakistan's cement industry should enhance capacity, optimize supply chain logistics, and ensure compliance with export standards. Moreover, proactive marketing strategies to secure more international clients would further solidify its export standing, thereby enhancing economic benefits .

Diversification strategies are crucial for Pakistan's oil and gas industry, particularly due to threats such as surging oil prices impacting the balance of payments and the risk of technological changes. By diversifying its energy portfolio, including investing in renewable energies and enhancing local production capabilities, Pakistan can reduce import dependency and improve energy security. Deregulation presents an opportunity to expand petrochemical markets and black oil product exports, which can fortify economic resilience. This strategic shift can mitigate risks associated with global oil price volatility and align with technological advancements in the sector .

Oil and gas play a critical role in Pakistan's economy, with the country producing around 54,000 barrels per day while consuming 353,000 barrels. Though self-sufficiency in oil remains unlikely, the government targets to increase domestic production to 100,000 barrels per day by 2010 . Opportunities include exporting black oil products due to the deregulation of the oil industry and Afghanistan's market for oil marketing companies (OMCs). Key threats include surging world oil prices affecting the balance of payments, as Pakistan imports over 50 million barrels yearly, causing a trade deficit, and diversification in technology leading to a decline in specific petrochemical products .

The banking sector in Pakistan has experienced notable growth in recent years, particularly between 2001-2003 with deposits rising almost 100% . The financial year 2009-2010 saw growth rates of 21% and 36% in deposits and advances portfolios, respectively, providing greater stability to banks . A significant focus shift from industrial lending to consumer products also benefited the sector . However, threats such as rampant money laundering and white-collar crimes pose significant risks. An aggressive and comprehensive mechanism is necessary to safeguard the domestic banking industry .

The growth of the cement industry in Pakistan from 2003 to 2009 was primarily due to rising construction activity in the country, reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan, and increasing government development expenditure . Potential threats to this growth include an unanticipated increase in interest rates or less demand than expected, which can cause a severe crisis for the sector. Additionally, the main cost component being fuel is problematic, as Pakistan's cement plants have converted to coal, which has seen a 300% price hike in international markets, increasing production costs significantly .

The stabilization or growth of Pakistan's banking sector can lead to a more robust economy by enhancing credit availability, thereby fostering business expansion and consumer spending. The sector's growth, with deposit and advances portfolios rising significantly during 2009-2010, enhances financial stability and supports economic resilience . A thriving banking sector can attract foreign investment, spur infrastructure development, and provide financial products essential for economic diversification. This growth can lead to higher employment rates and boost overall economic health by facilitating financial inclusion and entrepreneurship .

Pakistan's accession to the WTO is expected to open competition from markets with cheaper cement, as deregulation may eliminate tariffs on cement imports. This would enable cheaper cement from other markets to enter Pakistan, potentially blocking Pakistan's cement export to neighboring countries. However, opportunities for cement exports are emerging, such as Sri Lanka's interest in importing 30,000 tons from Pakistan monthly. This opportunity could allow Pakistan to secure exports of 360,000 tons annually to Sri Lanka if capitalized on .

The challenges faced by the construction and material sector, primarily driven by the cement industry, have significant implications for Pakistan's economy. With fuel being a major cost component and coal prices having increased by 300%, the sector faces higher production costs, which could lead to decreased competitiveness and profitability . A reduction in cement exports would deprive Pakistan of foreign exchange, while political instability and funding deficiencies for public development projects could stunt growth, affecting overall economic development and infrastructure expansion . These issues highlight the need for strategic planning to mitigate potential economic impact.

To mitigate the risks associated with increasing coal prices, Pakistan could explore several alternatives. Diversifying the fuel mix by integrating alternative energy sources such as wind or solar power could reduce dependency on coal. Encouraging investment in research and development for cleaner, more efficient technologies might also help reduce fuel costs. Additionally, negotiating long-term contracts at fixed prices with coal suppliers could provide cost stability. Lastly, policy incentives to enhance energy efficiency and alternative fuels could offset some of the economic strain caused by high coal prices .

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