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Growth Factor Methods in Trip Distribution

This document summarizes four methods for estimating trip distribution growth factors to project future transportation flows: uniform, average, Fratar, and Detroit methods. The uniform method applies a single uniform growth factor to all current flows. The average method calculates average growth factors for each zone based on trip generation and applies the average of the origin and destination zone factors. The document provides notation, assumptions, and formulas for calculating growth factors and projecting future flows using these two methods.

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Rajesh Khadka
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211 views3 pages

Growth Factor Methods in Trip Distribution

This document summarizes four methods for estimating trip distribution growth factors to project future transportation flows: uniform, average, Fratar, and Detroit methods. The uniform method applies a single uniform growth factor to all current flows. The average method calculates average growth factors for each zone based on trip generation and applies the average of the origin and destination zone factors. The document provides notation, assumptions, and formulas for calculating growth factors and projecting future flows using these two methods.

Uploaded by

Rajesh Khadka
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Bruton, M. J. 1970. Chapter 4: Trip Distribution.

Introduction to
Transportation Planning. Hutchinson Technical Education: London. pp. 97-
129.

Part I: Growth Factor Methods


General Notation and Formula

Tij2010 = T stands for flows


subscript three possibilities
ij = flow from i to j
i = total outflows or inflows i
= (blank) totals trips
superscript three possibilities
2010 = year of flow
k = iteration
0 = current data

Tij2010 = Tij2002 * E

Tij2002 = Trips from i to j in 2002

Tij2010 = Future Trips i to j in 2010

E = Growth (Adjustment) Factor

 This method can be used to generate trips in both directions (i>j and j>i) usually assume inflows
equal outflows in 24hrs.
 Growth can be simple of complex
o can be based on single factor (population)
o or combination of factors
 land use
 immigration
 class shifts
 commuting ease

4 Types of Trip Distribution Growth Factors

1. Uniform Factor
2. Average " "
3. Fratar
4. Detroit

Uniform Method: Future Flow = Present x Growth Factor


Givens

Tij2002 = Today's flows (other ways of writing


this include (Tij2002 = tij = Tij0)

TiG = Trip Generation Output for Future (Trip


Ends)

Assumption

Tij2010 = Tji2010 Projected Inflows equal


Projected Outflows (24hr. model)

Formulas

E = TiG / Tij2002 = TG / T2002

TG = Total Trips at Future Date

T2002 = Total Trips Today

Tij2010 = Tij2002 * E

Tij2010 = Flow from i to j in future (year 2010)

Step 1: Determine the Uniform Growth Factor

Step 2: Apply factor to all current flows

Average Method: Future Flow = Present x Growth Factor

Givens

Tij2002 = Today's flows (other ways of writing this include ( tij = Tij0) or flows before iterations

TiG = Trip Generation Output for Future (Trip Ends)

= Tolerances lower (1) and upper (2)

Assumption

Tij2010 = Tji2010 Projected Inflows equal


Projected Outflows (24hr. model)

Formulas
Eik-1 = TiG / Tik-1 = = TiG / Tijk-1

TiG = Total Trip Generation at i in Future Date

Tik-1 = Total Trips for iteration k at i

Tijk = Tijk-1 * [(Eik-1 =Ejk-1 )/2]

Tijk = Flow from i to j for iteration k (represents future)

Step 1: Run Trip Generation Model

Step 2: Determine first estimate of "Average Growth Factors"

k=1 Ei1-1 = TiG / Ti1-1 = TiG / Ti2002

Step 3: Apply first set of ave. growth factors to all current flows

k = 1 Tijk = Tijk-1 * [(Eik-1 + Ejk-1 )/2]

Tij1 = Tij0 * [(Ei0 + Ej0 )/2]

Step 4: Check for closure

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