UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, JAMAICA

SCHOOL OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS

BASIC PROBABILITY

Experiment

Using the terminology of probability, we define an experiment to be any process, which

generates well-defined outcomes. By this we mean that on any single repetition of the
experiment one and only one of the possible experimental outcomes will occur. Several
examples of experiments and their associated outcomes are as follows.

Experiment Experimental Outcomes

Toss a coin Head, Tail

Select a part for inspection Defective, non defective
Conduct a sales call Purchase, no purchase
Roll a die 1, 2 , 3 , 4, 5 , 6
Play a football game Win, lose, tie

The first step in analyzing a particular experiment is to carefully define the experimental
outcomes. When we have defined all possible experimental outcomes, we have identified
the sample space of the experiment. That is, the sample space is defined as the set of all
possible experimental outcomes. Any one particular experimental outcome is referred to
as a sample point and is an element of the sample space
Eg: Let us consider the experiment of tossing a coin.
Sample Space S = Head, Tail
The sample points are Head and Tail

Event

An event is a set of one or more outcomes of a random experiment.

Examples
(i) Throwing of a die and getting 1or 2 or 3. . . . . or 6 is an event
(ii) Tossing of a coin and getting head or tail is an event.
(iii) Drawing two cards from a pack of well-shuffled cards and getting a king and a
queen are events.

Probability

Probability is a ratio measuring the likelihood or chance that an event will happen.
It could refer to the chance of picking a black card from a deck of cards, the chance that
an individual prefers one product to another, or the chance that a new consumer product
on the market will be successful. In each of these examples, the probability is a
proportion or fraction whose values range between 0 and 1, inclusively. We note that an
event has no chance of occurring has a probability of 0, while an event that is sure to
occur has a probability of 1.
Number of favorable outcomes
Probability of an event =
Total number of possible outcomes

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Example # 1

A survey of a class of 34 students in a business school showed the following selection of

majors.

Accounting 10
Finance 5
Info. Systems 3
Management 6
Marketing 10

Suppose you select a student and observe his or her major.

What is the probability he or she is a management major?

Solution:

Total number of students = 34

Number of management students = 6
6 3
P(management student) = =
34 14

Complement Law

Let A denote the event ‘ A does not occur’

P (A) + P ( A) = 1

P ( A) = 1 – P (A)

Example # 2

The probability that Mary attends lectures is 0.85. What is the probability that Mary does
not attend lectures?

Solution:

Let A be the event Mary attends lectures.

P(A) = 0.85
Applying the Complement law
P ( A) = 1 – P (A)

P( A ) = 1- 0.85 = 0.15

Addition law

If A and B are any two events of the same experiment such that P(A)  0 and P(B)  0
then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
It is important to realize that P (A or B) means P(A occurs or B occurs or both A and B
occur)

P ( A �B) = P( A) + P( B)- P( A �B)

Example # 3

A Marketing study determined that 40% of customers want automatic door locks and
50% want power windows. In addition, 30% want both. What is the probability that a
customer wants either automatic door locks or power windows?

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Solution:

Let A be the event the customer want automatic door lock

and B be the event the customer want power window.

P (A) = 0.40 P(B) = 0.50 P(A  B) = 0.30

Applying the Addition Law

The probability that a customer wants either automatic door lock or power windows

P (A  B) = P( A) + P ( B )- P( A  B )

P ( A  B ) = 0.40 + 0.50 – 0.30 = 0.6

Mutually exclusive events

If an event A can occur or an event B can occur but not both A and B can occur, then the
two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive.
In this case, A and B do not overlap, so P (A  B ) = 0.

A B S

The addition law for mutually exclusive events:

When A and B are mutually exclusive,

P (A or B) = P (A  B ) = P (A) + P (B)

For example, if a card is drawn a random from an ordinary pack, then

P (king or queen) = P (king) + P (queen)
The events are mutually exclusive because it is not possible to have a ‘king of queens’

Example # 4

If A is the event that a manager will be in her office on a given afternoon and B is the
event that she will be in home, P (A) = 0.25 and P (B) = 0.6, find the probability that she
will be either in her office or in home?

Solution:

The probability that she will be either in her office or in home, P ( A  B ) .

The events A and B are mutually exclusive events
P ( A  B ) = P(A) + P(B)
= 0.25 + 0.6

= 0.85

Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events, where P (A)  0and P (B)  0,then the probability of A, given
that B has already occurred is written P (A / B). We read this as ‘the probability of A,
given B’,

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 P( A  B)
P (A / B) =
P( B)

This is often written

P (A  B) = P( A / B) P( B )
Note: If an A and B are mutually exclusive events then, since
P (A  B ) = 0 and P (B)  0, it follows that P (A / B) = 0

Example # 5

In a sample of 100 statistics students, 22% use Excel, 35%use Minitab, and 10% use both
Excel and Minitab.
(a) Calculate the conditional probability that a statistics student chosen at random uses
Excel given that he also uses Minitab
(b) Calculate the conditional probability that a statistics student chosen at random uses
Minitab given that he uses Excel

Solution:

Let A be the event the student use Excel

and B be the event the student use Minitab.

P(A) = 0.22 , P(B) = 0.35, PA  B ) = 0.10

P ( A �B ) 0.1 2
(a) P ( A / B ) = = =
P( B) 0.35 7

P ( A �B) 0.10 10 5
(b) P ( B / A) = = = =
P ( A) 0.22 22 11

Independent events

If either of the events A and B can occur without being affected by the other, then the two
events are independent.

If A and B are independent,

P (A / B) = P (A) and P (B / A) = P (B)
Now, since P (A  B) = P ( A / B) P ( B)

P (A  B ) = P ( A)  P( B)

This is the multiplication law for independent events and sometimes known as ‘the and
rule’
Since P (A and B) = P (A)  P (B)
For example, if a die is thrown and a coin is tossed,
P (tail and multiple of 3) = P (tail)  P (multiple of 3)

Example # 6

Timothy has interviewed with General Electric and estimates that there is a 20% chance
that he will be offered the job. He has also interviewed with IBM and estimates that there
is 15% chance that he will be offered that job. Let’s assume that the job offers are
independent of one another.

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(a) Calculate the probability that he will be offered both jobs
(b) Calculate the probability that Timothy receives no job offer
(c) Calculate the probability that he receives an offer only from GE
(d) Calculate the probability that he receives an offer only from IBM

Solution:

Let A be the event that Timothy is offered the job by General Electric
and B be the event that Timothy is offered the job by IBM

P(A) = 0.20, P(B) = 0.15, P ( A ) = 0.80 P ( B ) = 0.85

The events A and B are independent events.

(a) The probability that he will be offered both jobs, P ( A  B ) = P(A)  P(B)
= (0.20)(0.15)
= 0.030
(b) If the events A and B are independent, then the events A and B are independent.
The probability that Timothy receives no job offer, P( A  B ) = P( A ) P( B ) =
= ( 0.80)(0.85)
= 0.68
(c) If the events A and B are independent, then the events A and B are independent.
The probability that he receives an offer only from GE, P ( A  B ) = P ( A) P ( B )
= (0.20)(0.85)
= 0.17

(d) If the events A and B are independent, then the events A and B are independent.
The probability that he receives an offer only from IBM, P ( A  B ) = P ( A ) P ( B )
= (0.80)(0.15)
= 0.12

Example # 7

The Crime-Department Unit classifies crimes by age (in years) of the criminal and
whether the crime is violent or nonviolent. As shown below, a total of 150 crimes were
reported by the officer last month.

Age (in years)

Type of crime under 20 20 to 40 Over 40 Total

Violent 27 41 14 82

Nonviolent 12 34 22 68

Total 39 75 36 150

(i) What is the probability of selecting a case to analyze and findings it involved
a violent crime?

(ii) What is the probability of selecting a case to analyze and finding the crime
was committed by someone less than 40 years old?

(iii) What is the probability of selecting a case that involved a violent crime or an
offender less than 20 years old?

(iv) Given that a violent crime is selected for analysis, what is the probability the
crime was committed by a person under 20 years old?

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Solution:

82
(i) = 0.5467
150

39 75 114
(ii) + = = 0.76
150 150 150

82 39 27 94
(iii) + - = = 0.6267
150 150 150 150

27
(iv) = 0.3293
82