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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Overview

The document discusses understanding the input and output variability of a system model. It explains how sensitivity analysis can be used to determine how uncertainty in input assumptions, like component failure rates, affects outputs of a model like mean time between failure or system availability over time. Charts are shown analyzing the sensitivity of MTBF to a derate factor of components and analyzing the uncertainty in availability over time under different confidence levels.

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Madhuram Megha
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6 views2 pages

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Overview

The document discusses understanding the input and output variability of a system model. It explains how sensitivity analysis can be used to determine how uncertainty in input assumptions, like component failure rates, affects outputs of a model like mean time between failure or system availability over time. Charts are shown analyzing the sensitivity of MTBF to a derate factor of components and analyzing the uncertainty in availability over time under different confidence levels.

Uploaded by

Madhuram Megha
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Understanding the Input and Output Variability of a System Model

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Sensitivity to an Input Assumption


500
450
400
350
System MTBF

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Derate Factor

Uncertainty in Availability
1

0.8
Availability

0.6
5%
0.4
50%
0.2
95%
0
0 200 400 600 800

Time

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned
subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525. SAND 2011-7800 P

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