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Probability and Statistics Problem Set

This document contains 11 probability and statistics problems. Problem 1 asks to model a weighted die and find the probability of rolling less than 4. Problem 2 shows that the probability of an event A equals the sum of probabilities of A intersecting partitions of the sample space, and uses this to derive a formula relating probabilities of events A, B, and C. Problem 3 proves inequalities relating probabilities of intersecting events A and B. The remaining problems involve additional concepts like conditional probability, binomial distribution, and Bayes' theorem.

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Mansi Khandelwal na17b004
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16 views2 pages

Probability and Statistics Problem Set

This document contains 11 probability and statistics problems. Problem 1 asks to model a weighted die and find the probability of rolling less than 4. Problem 2 shows that the probability of an event A equals the sum of probabilities of A intersecting partitions of the sample space, and uses this to derive a formula relating probabilities of events A, B, and C. Problem 3 proves inequalities relating probabilities of intersecting events A and B. The remaining problems involve additional concepts like conditional probability, binomial distribution, and Bayes' theorem.

Uploaded by

Mansi Khandelwal na17b004
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

MA2040: Probability, Statistics and Stochastic Processes

Problem Set-I
Sivaram Ambikasaran
January 28, 2019

1. A six-sided die is made in a way that each even face is twice as likely as each odd face. All even faces
are equally likely, as are all odd faces. Construct a probabilistic model for a single roll of this die and
find the probability that the outcome is less than 4.
2. Let S1 , S2 , . . . , Sn be a partition of the sample space Ω.
(a) Show that for any event A,
n
X
P(A) = P (A ∩ Si )
i=1

(b) Use the previous part to show that, for events A, B and C,

P (A) = P (A ∩ B) + P (A ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B c ∩ C c ) − P (A ∩ B ∩ C)

3. (a) Prove that for any two events A and B, we have

P (A ∩ B) ≥ P(A) + P(B) − 1

(b) Using the above, establish the following generalization:

P (A1 ∩ A2 ∩ · · · ∩ An ) ≥ P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) + · · · + P (An ) − (n − 1)

4. Let Ω = {(x1 , x2 , x3 ) : x1 + x2 + x3 = 2019} and x1 , x2 , x3 are positive integers. Assuming all the
elements in Ω are equally likely to be drawn, what is the probability of having x1 , x2 and x3 (all three)
to be odd?
5. Two fair 6-sided dice are rolled.
(a) Given that the roll results in a sum of 4 or less, find the conditional probability that both dice
show the same number.
(b) Given that the two dice land on different numbers, find the conditional probability that at least
one die roll is a 6.
6. A batch of 100 items is inspected by testing 4 randomly selected items. If one of the four is defective,
the batch is rejected. What is the probability that the batch is accepted, if it contains exactly five
defectives?
7. Consider a coin that comes up heads with probability p and tails with probability 1 − p. Let qn be the
probability of obtaining even number of heads in n independent tosses. Derive a recursion that relates
qn to qn−1 and establish the formula
n
1 + (1 − 2p)
qn =
2

1
8. Two playes X and Y alternately roll a pair of unbiased dice. X wins if on a throw he gets a sum of 6
before Y gets a sum of 7; Y wins if he obtains a sum of 7 before X obtains a sum of 6; If X begins the
game, prove that his probability of winning is 30/61.
9. In a deck of cards, let A be the event of drawing a spade and B be the event of drawing a king. Assuming
that all cards are equally likely to be drawn, obtain P(A|B), P(B|A). Are A and B independent?
10. Let pX denote the probability that India will play a team X in the World Cup Final 2019, given that
India will qualify for the World Cup Final 2019. Let qX be the probability of Kohli scoring a century
against team X.

Teams pX qX
Afghanistan 0.02 0.50
Australia 0.10 0.30
Bangladesh 0.03 0.40
England 0.30 0.10
New Zealand 0.15 0.25
Pakistan 0.10 0.15
South Africa 0.20 0.20
SriLanka 0.05 0.25
West Indies 0.05 0.20

(a) From the information given above, find the probability that Kohli will score a century in the
World Cup Final 2019.
(b) Given that Kohli scores a century in the World Cup Final 2019, which team is
i. Most likely to have played the Final along with India
ii. Least likely to have played the Final along with India

11. A test for certain rare virus correctly predicts that the person has a virus 99% of the time and correctly
identifies that the person doesn’t carry a virus 98% of the time. It is known 1% of the population
carries the virus. What is the probability of a person actually having the disease, if he has tested
positive to the test?

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