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Understanding Probability Concepts

The document discusses key concepts in probability theory including classical and relative frequency definitions of probability, experiments and sample spaces, unions and intersections of events, mutually exclusive and independent events, addition and multiplication laws, permutations and combinations, and the central limit theorem. The central limit theorem states that the mean of a sufficiently large number of random variables will be approximately normally distributed regardless of the underlying distribution of individual observations.

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luis anchayhua prado
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5 views9 pages

Understanding Probability Concepts

The document discusses key concepts in probability theory including classical and relative frequency definitions of probability, experiments and sample spaces, unions and intersections of events, mutually exclusive and independent events, addition and multiplication laws, permutations and combinations, and the central limit theorem. The central limit theorem states that the mean of a sufficiently large number of random variables will be approximately normally distributed regardless of the underlying distribution of individual observations.

Uploaded by

luis anchayhua prado
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

2015-05-17

Probability

Probability

Classic Method

Number of outcomes in which the event occurs


Total Number of possible outcomes of an experiment

1
2015-05-17

Probability

Relative Frequency of Occurrence P(E) = n / N

Number of times an event occurred


Total number of opportunities for an event to occur

Subjective Probability

Probability

Experiment

Event

Elementary Events

Sample Space

2
2015-05-17

Probability

Unions and Intersections

Probability

Mutually Exclusive Events

Independent Events

Complementary Events

3
2015-05-17

Probability
Marginal, Union and Joint Probability

Marginal

Union

Joint

Probability
Addition Laws

4
2015-05-17

Probability
Multiplication Laws

Probability
Multiplication Laws

5
2015-05-17

Factorial

Permutation / Combination

Order of selection matters Order of selection does not matter

6
2015-05-17

Permutation / Combination

Order of selection matters Order of selection does not matter

Central Limit Theorem


The arithmetic mean of a sufficiently
large number of iterates of independent
random variables, each with a well-
defined expected value and well-defined
variance, will be approximately normally
distributed, regardless of the underlying
distribution.

Distribution of
Sample Means Distribution of
Individual Observations

7
2015-05-17

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem:

For almost all populations,


the sampling distribution of
the mean can be
approximated closely by a
normal distribution,
provided the sample size is
sufficiently large.

Central Limit Theorem

8
2015-05-17

Central Limit Theorem

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