Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Lecture 1 Introduction
Instructor: Dr. Jie Zhang
Course Email: civilriskcourse@[Link]
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Course information
• Instructor
Dr. Jie Zhang
Email: cezhangjie@[Link]
Office: 816 Geotechnical Building
• Course email
civilriskcourse@[Link] (Password: risk123456)
All lecture notes will be sent to the course email.
• Teaching Assistant
Mr. Jinzheng Hu, tjcce_hujz@[Link]
• Grading Policy
10% Attendance + 30% homework + 60% Final Examination
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Class rule
• Full attendance
• No late for the class
• No early leave
• Timely submission of homework
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Example: design of a tunnel
Ground Earthquake
water
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Uncertainties
Ground condition
Soil property
Water level
Surcharge load
Earthquake loading
Model uncertainty
Deterioration of the reinforced concrete
Design error
Construction defect
….
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Two types of uncertainties
Aleatory (inherent) uncertainty, e.g.,
Variability of the weights of students
Variability of daily temperature in a month
Variability of the shear strength of the soil in a site
Can be better characterized, but cannot be reduced
Epistemic uncertainty (knowledge-based uncertainty), e.g.,
Model uncertainty
Uncertainty associated with the mean of the weight of the students in
Tongji University
Can be reduced by more research or more data
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Objectives
• How to model uncertainties
• How to assess their effects in civil engineering
design
• How to perform design considering uncertainties
• How to make decision considering uncertainties
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Related research
• Reliability analysis
• Probabilistic methods
• Reliability-based design
• Risk assessment and management
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Academic activities
• ICASP
– International Conference on Application of Probability and Statistics in
Civil Engineering
– ICASP 2015 is going to be held at Vancouver, Canada
• ICOSSAR
– ICOSSAR 2017 was held at Austria
• APSSRA
– Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and Its Applications
– APSSRA 2016 was held at Tongji University, China
• ISGSR:
– International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk
– ISGSR 2017 was held at Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Outline of this course
• Probability models
– Models for uncertain phenomenon
• Reliability Methods
– Evaluate the response of civil engineering
system in an uncertain environment
• Reliability-based design
• Bayesian updating
– Uncertainty reduction
• Risk and Decision Making
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Reference books
Probability Concepts in Engineering: Probability Concepts in Engineering
Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Planning and Design, Vol. 2: Decision,
Environmental Engineering (v. 1) Risk, and Reliability
by Alfredo H-S. Ang and Wilson H. Tang by Alfredo Hua-Sing Ang Wilson H. Tang
Lecture 1 Probability Analysis for Civil Engineering
Homework
• List five famous researchers your country and in
the world in this filed.
• Describe the research interest of each
researcher with one sentence