Sylhet Engineering College
Tilagor, Sylhet
Assignment No: 02
Assignment Topics: Power Generation in Bangladesh.
Submitted To: Janibul Alam Soeb
Lecturer of EEE
Sylhet Engineering College
Submitted By: Ali Mohammad Hamza
Department: EEE
Registration No: 2015 338 534
1 Electricity 1
1 Electricity
The utility electricity sector in Bangladesh has one national grid with an
installed capacity of 16,048 MW as of July 2018. Bangladesh’s energy
sector is booming. Recently Bangladesh started construction of the
2.4-gigawatt (GW) Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant expected to go into
operation in 2023. According to the Bangladesh Power Development Board
in July 2018, 90 percent people have access to the electricity But still the
per capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is considered low.
Electricity is the major source of power for most of the country’s economic
activities. Bangladesh’s total installed electricity generation capacity
(including captive power) was 15,351 megawatts (MW) as of January
2017. As 2015, 92% urban population and 67% rural population have the
access to the electricity for their source of light. An average of 77.9% of
the population have the access to electricity in Bangladesh. Bangladesh will
need an estimated 34,000 MW of power by 2030 to sustain its economic
growth of over 7 percent.
Problems in Bangladesh’s electric power sector include high system losses,
delays in completion of new plants, low plant efficiency, erratic power
supply, electricity theft, blackouts, and shortages of funds for power plant
maintenance. Overall, the country’s generation plants have been unable to
meet system demand over the past decade.
On 2 November 2014, electricity was restored after a day-long
nationwide blackout. A transmission line from India had failed, which ”led
to a cascade of failures throughout the national power grid,” and criticism
of ”old grid infrastructure and poor management.” However, in a recent
root-cause analysis report the investing team has clarified that fault was
actually due to a lack in electricity management and poor transmission and
distribution health infrastructure that caused the blackout.
2 Sources of energy 2
2 Sources of energy
As of 2011, 79 natural gas wells were present in the 23 operational gas
fields which produce over 2000 millions of cubic feet of gas per day
(MMCFD). It is well short of over 2500 MMCFD that is demanded, a
number which is growing by around 7% each year. In fact, more than
three-quarters of the nations commercial energy demand is being met by
natural gas. This influential sector caters for around 40% of the power
plant feed-stock, 17% of industries, 15% captive power, 11% for domestic
and household usage, another 11% for fertilizers, 5% in Compressed
natural gas (CNG) activities and 1% for commercial and agricultural uses.
CNG is substituting more that USD 0.8 billion worth of foreign exchange
annually and is also used in most vehicles on the road. In addition to CNG,
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is also demanded at around 0.1 million
tons. The nation furthermore demands 3.5 million tons of oil imports in
addition to almost 2 million tons of diesel to feed oil-based power plants
being planned and built all around the country. The additional petroleum
and coal imports are causing a disruption in the GDP by as much as 2%
annually. The new purchases are affecting improvement initiatives in other
sectors causing reduced export earnings and curtailing employment
opportunities. This massive failure in the energy sector is mostly attributed
to prolonged negligence, inappropriate implementation, inefficiency and
lack of planning. To make matters worse, natural gas reserves are expected
to expire by 2020. The only coal mine of the country is in the development
stage, the reserve of which is also expected to dry up anywhere from 75 to
80 years after the start of their operations.
Efforts to develop an open-pit coal mine in Phulbari, Dinajpur District,
have met with large, violent protests in 2006 because of feared
environmental effects, and six people were killed and hundreds injured. At
the time, the government closed the project, for which it was working with
Asia Energy (now Global Coal Resources). It was encouraged in December
2009 to re-open it by the United States ambassador in private
communication. In October 2010 protesters make a week-long march from
Phulbari to Dhaka against the mine; a coalition of other groups protested
at a Global Coal Resources meeting in London.
3 Renewable energy 3
3 Renewable energy
Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacity through rural households and
1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni. Bangladesh has planned to
produce 5% of total power generation by 2015 & 10% by 2020 from
renewable energy sources like wind, waste & solar energy. The country’s
prospect of geothermal energy extraction has also been discussed by
researchers. Studies carried out by geologists suggested geothermal
resources in northwest and southeast region.
3.1 Solar power
The long term average sunshine data indicates that the period of bright
sunshine hours in the coastal regions of Bangladesh varies from 3 to 11
hours daily. The insolation in Bangladesh varies from 3.8 kWh/m2 /day to
6.4 kWh/m2 /day at an average of 5 kWh/m2 /day. These indicate that
there are good prospects for solar thermal and photovoltaic application in
the country.
With an estimated 40% of the population in Bangladesh having no access
to electricity, the government introduced a scheme known as solar home
systems (SHS) to provide electricity to households with no grid access. The
program reached 3 million households as of late 2014 and, with more than
50,000 systems being added per month since 2009, the World Bank has
called it ”the fastest growing solar home system program in the world.”
The Bangladeshi government is working towards universal electricity access
by 2021 with the SHS program projected to cover 6 million households by
2017.
3.2 Wind Power
The long term wind flow, especially in the islands and the southern coastal
belt of Bangladesh indicate that the average wind speed remains between 3
and 4.5 m/s for the months of March to September and 1.7 to 2.3 for
remaining period of the year. There is a good opportunity in island and
coastal areas for the application of wind mills for pumping and
electrification. But during the summer and monsoon seasons (March to
October) there can be very low pressure areas and storm wind speeds 200
to 300 km/h can be expected. Wind turbines have to be strong enough to
withstand these high wind speeds.
3 Renewable energy 4
3.3 Tidal Power
The tides at Chittagong Division are predominantly semidiurnal with a
large variation in range corresponding to the seasons, the maximum
occurring during the south-west monsoon. In 1984, an attempt was made
by mechanical engineering department of KUET to assess the feasibility of
tidal energy in the coastal regions of Bangladesh, especially at Cox’s Bazar
and at the islands of Maheshkhali and Kutubdia. The average tidal range
was found within 4-5 meter and the amplitude of the spring tide exceeds
even 6 meter. From different calculations, it is anticipated that there are a
number of suitable sites at Cox’s Bazar, Maheshkhali, Kutubdia and other
places where permanent basins with pumping arrangements might be
constructed which would be a double operation scheme.
3.4 Wave Energy
Bangladesh has favorable conditions for wave energy especially during the
period beginning from late March to early October. Waves generated in
Bay of Bengal and a result of the southwestern wind is significant.
Maximum wave height of over 2 meter with an absolute maximum of 2.4
meter were recorded. The wave periods varied from 3 to 4 seconds for
waves of about 0.5 meter and about 6 seconds for waves of about 2 meter.
3.5 Geothermal energy
Geothermal potential of Bangladesh is yet to be determined. Different
studies carried out by geologists have suggested possible geothermal
resources in the northwest and southeast region. Among the studied areas
of northwest region, Singra-Kuchma-Bogra area, Barapukuria coal basin
area, and the Madhyapara hard rock mine area with temperature gradient
above 30C/km and bottom hole temperature in excess of 100C meet the
requirements of binary cycle power plants. But to reach a foregone
conclusion on exploiting the resource in a viable, feasible and economically
profitable way, extensive research is required. In 2011, Anglo MGH Energy,
a Dhaka-based private company announced the construction of 200 MW
geothermal plant, first ever of such kind, in Thakurgaon district. But for
some unknown reasons, this project never commenced, and no development
in this field has been announced afterwards.
4 Future and Thought 5
4 Future and Thought
Policy makers are reluctant to name it as price hike. To them, it is price
adjustment. Whatever name or label we prefer; the economic burden for
people at large is the same. While people in Bangladesh is bearing the
wrath of rent seeking approach of Bangladesh government, people in India
are enjoying lowest ever electricity tariff from solar and wind. Solar and
wind electricity is now being produced at lower than TK 3.5 per unit there
and the government of India have already set a target to install 100 GW
capacity of solar and 60 GW capacity of wind power plant by 2022.
The current political party in power introduced furnace and diesel oil based
rental and quick rental power plant to tackle emergency situation in power
sector during their first term. Now, they are about one year away from
completing their consecutive second term, but we are still living in the
energy emergency situation. Meanwhile, costly means of power generation
are becomes costlier, what was once introduced as temporary solution is
now permanent. More importantly, to ensure that there is no public debate
on governments policy and activities in the energy sector, it has also quickly
enacted a bill Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply
(Special Provisions) Act 2010. The Act not only prohibits any public
scrutiny of energy sector initiatives and activities, but it also exempts the
directors and officials of power companies from all possible damages and
expense (Section 9,10). Inevitably, power generation in Bangladesh
becomes so lucrative business venture that even countrys popular furniture
making house like Otobi as Quantum Power Systems Ltd started to sell
electricity, though not successfully (The Daily Star, July 1, 2016).
Expensive liquid fuel based power plant capacity share is encouraged in
Bangladesh. It now stands at 30 per cent which was 8.6 per cent in
2008-09. The liquid fuel based power costs up to Tk 15 to 20 per unit
whereas natural gas based power plant is producing same electricity at less
than three taka. When asked about the rationality behind continued
reliance on an expensive method, the government is commonly found
saying, it is because of the scarcity of natural gas. However, the hidden,
unspoken reason is that the government is prioritising corporate/private
sector energy generation. The fact that all four public gas fired power
plants has been out of gas supply, while seven private plants are enjoying
the same at Chittagong since October this year speaks to this point.
Moreover, from the jointly conducted survey by United States Geological
Survey and PetroBangla in 2001, we came to know about 32 TCF
4 Future and Thought 6
undiscovered gas reserve potential is there including both in on shore and
off shore area. Sadly, that reserve is still unexplored! In the meantime,
various contracts have been signed with multi-national corporations,
projects have been awarded to companies, public money has been wasted
but no actual work has been done. The Bangladesh Petroleum Exploration
and Production Company BAPEX is a proved state-run organisation with
its efficiency and cost effectiveness but when it comes to commission gas
exploration contracts foreign companies always get priority. If BAPEX is
lacking in expertise in any area, it is the duty of the government to invest
on building that expertise for BAPEX instead of using that as an excuse to
commission work to foreign companies.
There is a general lack of willingness to run public power plant efficiently.
We are already bearing the brunt of this, prioritising the private sector
government has forced us to pay more for expensive private generation
system. For instance, in 2015, the total generated electricity was 45.8
TWh coming from different power plants. Even if average standard
condition would have been ensured then total generation in that year could
have been possible to get from natural gas based power plant alone. But
lack of efficiency forced government to buy costly power from other source.
The mismanagement and inefficiency of the power sector is something that
is not often talked about. However, it is because of the mismanagement
and poor efficiency during 2015 that 0.5 TCF gas was burned and
produced only 31.8 TWh of electricity from natural gas based plant.
The share of coal in power generation is still insignificant in Bangladesh,
but its future target is horrendous. When rest of the world is in
competition to declare their fossil-fuel divestment, coal phase out plans,
Bangladesh is looking for the fastest ever coal plant expansion project in
the history. According to Power Sector Master Plan 2016, coal fleet
capacity will reach up to 19 GW in total by 2041 which is now only 0.5
GW. This plan defies the global trend. France, UK, Canada, and Germany
have already declared its plan to phase out coal by 2023, 2025, 2030 and
2050 respectively. China has cancelled 104 coal fired power plant of 120
GW capacities all together which were at various stage of construction in
2017. Chinese government have allocated USD 275 billion budget to invest
in 5 years to curb air pollution which is more than double of their defense
expenditure. And, to maintain the growing electricity demand, they have
decided to invest USD 361 by 2020 in renewable energy sector which in
return will not only give electricity but also will create 13 million new jobs.
4 Future and Thought 7
In India, billions of dollars of investment have already become stranded due
to low capacity factor of their coal-fired power plants. Implementation of
strict regulation in some cases also contributed to this situation. This year
TATA power has proposed to sell 51 per cent equity of its 4 GW Mundra
projects ailing asset for a nominal fee of 1 rupee only! It is worth
highlighting that within five years of its inauguration, company
accumulated the loss of about 1 billion dollars. Surprisingly, policy makers
in Bangladesh are reluctant to learn any lesson from such incidents
happening so close to our border. A contrasting scenario is emerging in our
energy sector. The coal expansion projects has begun here to the extent
that it did not even hesitate to initiate Rampal 1320 MW power plant
project adjacent to Sundarbans. It is being constructed under the
supervision of National Thermal Power Corporation, an Indian public
sector energy company that is notoriously famous for poor performance.
On November 1, its recently commissioned Rae Berali 500 MW capacity
unit had an accident that left 37 Indian citizens dead and more than one
hundred injured (India Today, November 5). This latest fire brought
NTPCs controversial legacy in plain sight. Yet, Bangladesh government
still adamant to implement the power plant in Rampal in partnership with
India and trying to sell it as one to be implemented with most advanced
technology, and that it is environment friendly.
Bangladeshs plan with nuclear power is also going against the global trend.
It has set quite an unprecedented target in nuclear power expansion.
According to PSMP2016, nuclear power plant capacity is going to be
increased up to 7.2 GW by 2041 when many countries with nuclear plant
are setting target for nuclear phase-out in near future. Today, nuclear
technology is considered a great burden for the state in terms of its
excessive upfront cost. Considering insurance liability, decommissioning
cost, and the continuous upgrade of safety measures, nuclear technology is
perceived to be the most expensive means to produce electricity. For
instance, the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant with 1.6 GW capacity is
located at Flamanville, Manche, France was supposed to be inaugurated in
2012 and initial budget was 3.3 billion euro. However, after the Fukushima
accident the project implementer were bound to revisit the design. Now, its
revised budget is 10.5 billion euro and expected to be commissioned in
2018. Such cost overrun is very common in nuclear project implementation
and such investment creates huge pressure on states exchequer. In case of
nuclear power, technology cannot guarantee the safety and it has been
proved in Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. Instead of
revisiting its plan, the government has passed an indemnity bill to get legal
4 Future and Thought 8
shield for any unintended tragic occurrences.
Around the world, the use of renewable energy has become the prime choice
for ensuring affordable, reliable, and clean energy services. Germany has set
the target to generate at least 80 per cent of its required power from
renewable energy by 2050 and Denmark has a target to get 50 per cent of
its power from renewables by 2020. For India, the non-fossil fuel based
capacity development target is 57 per cent of the total electricity
generation capacity by 2027. Sadly, for Bangladesh renewable energy and
imported power has presented as substitute for each other in PSMP2016.
In the whole energy mix, only 15 per cent of electricity generation target
has been fixed for renewable energy or imported power capacity addition.
The renewable energy based generation is shown as 7 TWh in the same
document which is going to be only 3 per cent if compared with the total
demand by 2041. The PSMP2016 estimated 3.6 GW renewable energy
based power generation potential all together. Although, a recent research
predicted that, only from wind, there are 20 GW capacity potentials in
Bangladesh (Saifullah et al, 2016). Globally, the cost of renewable energy
generation is rapidly decreasing. The PSMP2016 also mentions that the
cost of power generation from renewable sources will decrease in near
future. Mysteriously, the PSMP2016 has no reflection of this global trend.
For renewable energy development, initial investment is not an issue
anymore. The downward spiral trend of its per unit cost made the payback
period shorter than any other means of power generation. To solve problem
of land and space constraint, various techniques are already available, for
example floating solar, solar sharing, mini grid, micro grid, off shore
installation and more. Fossil fuel based power generation is not possible on
river banks, shallow wetlands, road lanes, empty rooftops space of buildings
but solar panel is very well fitted for these areas. While conventional power
generation is encouraging lavish consumption, renewable energy is fostering
innovation and conservation.
Globally and locally, scholars across different disciplines are working on
developing better framework, method and model of renewable energy
economy. A group of scientists from Stanford University have been working
on clean energy for some time now. In last September, they have published
a research paper with all of their findings (Table 1). Their finding shows,
by 2050, 100 per cent renewable energy based solution for Bangladesh is
not only possible, but also this source will be more economical than any
other option. According to this research, per unit electricity cost will be Tk
4 Future and Thought 9
9 at nominal rate and it will save two thousand taka per person per year by
2050. Therefore, those including the government who are opposing
renewable energy are not opposing it from technically solid ground, real
reasons behind their opposition is hidden in their profiteering interest. With
right and well intentioned investment renewable energy, it could solve our
energy crisis. Only mindset and profit-mongering lawmakers are the barrier.
In todays economy, not only the availability but also the quality and cost of
electricity are important. No one wants to buy and use electricity at the
price of gold of course. Unfortunately, Bangladesh is heading towards that
direction. According to PSMP2016, average electricity tariff will be Tk
8.52, 11.02 and 12.79 per unit in nominal price by 2021, 2031 and 2041
respectively. But renewable energy dependent self-reliant energy mix can
produce electricity at a very lower rate than this and at the same time will
protect our life, livelihood, ecology and environment. What Bangladesh
needs now is a people oriented energy sector, not a sector that manipulates
the question of energy generation as means of making a handful of people
rich and deplete the nations of its biodiversity and natural resources. To
get rid of the turmoil in power sector, we need to be aware and challenge
the status quo for a better future.