00 Dynamic Systems Guide
00 Dynamic Systems Guide
Markus Epp
1 Recap
Variable names and notions
• A variable that is given at the beginning of a period and that can be affected
indirectly, if at all, is called a stock- or state variable. Examples: capital/assets,
technology, ...
Growth Denitions
Let x (t) be the value of variable x at time t. With slight abuse of notation, we will also
use x (t) ≡ xt .
∗ This guide is supposed to serve as a tool for solving the questions in the tutorials and exams to Ad-
vanced Macroeconomics I. Note that the content is not directly/in itself matter of the exam. Though,
concepts may be required to answer exam questions. Some formulas will be provided in the exam,
if needed (equations indicated by a ). For questions regarding copyright and distribution feel free
to contact Markus Epp via [Link]@[Link].
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
∆xt ( x − xt )/h
gx (t) = = t+h . (1)
xt xt
The polar cases h = 1 and h → 0 yield the respective definitions for growth rates
in discrete and in continuous time.
∂xt
ẋt
• A growth rate in continuous time is thus defined by gx (t) = xt = xt where
∂t
ẋt is
∂xt x (t+h)− x (t)
the derivative of xt with respect to time, i.e. ẋt ≡ ∂t = lim h .
h →0
• Given a functional form of xt , the growth rate can be calculated by taking the
derivative of the log of a variable with respect to time:
Dierential equations
• An equation that relates a variable to its derivatives is called a differential equa-
tion (DE). The initial value problem includes such a DE:
f ( x ( t ), t ) = a ( t ) x ( t ) + b ( t ). (4)
• For first-order linear differential equations there always exists a unique - possibly
unstable - solution.
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
• A general solution to (3) is an equation x (t) = g̃( A, t), where g̃(·) is known and A
is an arbitrary starting value.
• A steady state is a point in time where a variable x does not change any more
without interventions, e.g. in (3): ẋ (t) = f ( x (t), t) = 0. Steady state values of
variables are often indicated by dropping time indices and stars and: x ∗ .
• A steady state is stable if deviations from the steady state (in the neighborhood
e) imply that x (t) converges back to x ∗ :
∂ ẋ (t)
<0 (5, )
∂x (t) x(t)= x∗
Dierence equations
• An equation that relates a variable y to its past (and future) values is called a
difference equation, e.g.:
y t = f ( y t +1 , y t −1 ) (6)
• For linear (systems of) first-order difference equations there always exists a unique
solution (possibly unstable).
• For zero constant(s) b, the (system of) difference equation(s) is called homoge-
neous.
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
Z∞
max e− ϕt f [ x (t), u(t)]dt (8)
x,u
0
x (t) represents a (vector of-) state variable(s) with shorthand xt or just x. Accordingly,
u(t) represents the (vector of-) choice variable(s) with shorthand ut or just u. In this
formulation, x and u are paths of x (t) and u(t), respectively1 .
The solution to this problem can be found by employing optimal control theory. This
amounts to setting up an auxiliary function, the Hamiltonian-function. There are two
mathematically consistent approaches to reformulate the problem: the present value
(PV) approach and the current value (CV) approach.
The idea of these two approaches is as follows: searching solution paths for u(t) and
x (t) so that the integral in (8) is maximized is computationally tedious. Instead, we
solve the problem by looking at smaller subproblems - exploiting Bellman’s principle
of optimality2 - and combining these partial solutions thereafter. In particular, we look
at the value added by u(t) and x (t) at any point in time to the target function f (·). More-
over, we relate this value added to its “externalities”, i.e. its effect on the constraint(s)
g(·). The latter is done by introducing a co-state variable3 . The principle of optimality
implies that if the solution is optimal in any point in time (taking into account all possi-
ble effects of one point in time to another) it is also optimal on the entire time horizon.
The approaches (PV) and (CV) are explained in more detail in the following.
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
2.1 PV-approach
Hamiltonian function:
H PV [ x (t), u(t), λ(t)] = e− ϕt f [ x (t), u(t)] + λ(t) g[ x (t), u(t)]
The solution to problem (8) s.t. to (9) and (10) is then characterized by:
∂HtPV ∂ f ( xt , ut ) ∂g( xt , ut )
=0 ⇔ e− ϕt + λt =0 (11)
∂ut ∂ut ∂ut
∂HtPV ∂ f ( xt , ut ) ∂g( xt , ut )
= −λ̇t ⇔ e− ϕt + λt = −λ̇t (12)
∂xt ∂xt ∂xt
∂HtPV
= ẋt ⇔ g( xt , ut ) = ẋt , (13)
∂λt
the transversality condition
lim λ( T ) x ( T ) = 0 (14)
T →∞
as well as the initial condition
x (0) = x0 . (15)
Usually, the strategy to determine the solution is to take the derivative of (11) with
respect to time t and to insert the result, say (11’), together with its primitive (11) into
(12). Whether there is a closed form solution (analytical solution you can obtain using
pen and paper) will in general depend on the structure of f (·) and g(·).
2.2 CV-approach
Hamiltonian function:
HCV [ x (t), u(t), µ(t)] = f [ x (t), u(t)] + µ(t) g[ x (t), u(t)]
Note that HCV (t) = e ϕ H PV (t). The solution to problem (8) s.t. to (9) and (10) is then
characterized by:
∂HtPV ∂ f ( xt , ut ) ∂g( xt , ut )
=0 ⇔ + µt =0 (16)
∂ut ∂ut ∂ut
∂HtPV ∂ f ( xt , ut ) ∂g( xt , ut )
= ϕµt − µ̇t ⇔ + µt = ϕµt − µ̇t (17)
∂xt ∂xt ∂xt
∂HtPV
= ẋt ⇔ g( xt , ut ) = ẋt (18)
∂µt
and the transversality condition
lim e− ϕT µ( T ) x ( T ) = 0 (19)
T →∞
as well as the initial condition
x (0) = x0 (20)
The same strategy as in the PV-approach can in principle be employed to obtain a
solution.
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
Remarks
PV-approach vs. CV-approach
In the PV-approach, the value added at period t is discounted back to its present-value,
i.e. the value at t = 0. Hence, all per-period choices are linked over the very first
period. In contrast, the CV-approach is set up in relative time and links all periods
implicitly by relating the first order conditions to each other. It is easily seen, that the
approaches are consistent since µ(t) = e ϕt λ(t) implies that (11)-(14) and (16)-(19) are
equivalent.
∂HtPV 1
=0 ⇔ e−ρt √ − λt = 0 (25)
∂ct 2 ct
∂HtPV
= −λ̇t ⇔ 0 = −λ̇t (26)
∂k t
∂HtPV
= k̇ t ⇔ −ct = k̇ t (27)
∂λt
Taking the derivative of (25) with respect to t yields
ρe−ρt e−ρt
λ̇t = − 1
− 3 ċt
2ct2 4ct2
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
Hence, the time path of consumption can be stated as follows (reassure yourself):
ct = c0 e−2ρt
with the constant c0 = c(0) yet to be determined4 . The time path of consumption is
depicted in Figure 1. It is left to the reader to verify that the transversality condition
holds for these paths.
Consumption path
0.15 = 0.02, k 0 = 1
= 0.08, k 0 = 1
0.1
c(t)
0.05
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
t
4 To determine c we exploit knowledge of k0 . To do so, we derive the time path of cake k t by integrating
0
k̇ t = −c0 e − 2ρt . Then we evaluate k t at t = 0 and reformulate for c0 to obtain c0 = 2ρk0 .
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
s.t. x t +1 ≤ g [ x t , u t ] , ∀ t (29)
x0 = x (0) > 0 . (30)
3.1 Lagrangean
Setting up the Lagrangean as follows:
∞
Lt = ∑ βt ( f [xt , ut ] + λt [ g(xt , ut ) − xt+1 ]) (31)
t =0
∂ f ( xt , ut ) ∂g( xt , ut ) −1
λt = − (35)
∂ut ∂ut
∂ f ( x t +1 , u t +1 ) ∂g( xt+1 , ut+1 )
λt = β + λ t +1 (36)
∂xt+1 ∂xt+1
x t +1 = g ( x t , u t ) (37)
5 Here a path is defined as: x ≡ { xt }∞
t =0 , t ∈ N
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
x t +1 = g ( x t , u t ). (39)
(38) is called an Euler-equation. Note that (39) pins down the path for ut when the path
of xt is given. The system (38)-(39) does not in general exhibit closed form solutions
unless f (·) and g(·) have some specific forms. Hence, finding x can be difficult and is
sometimes conducted using numerical methods.
and Γ( xt ) is the set of feasible choices of xt+1 so that xt+1 ≤ g( xt , h( xt+1 , xt )).
The solution is characterized by the first-order condition to the right-hand side of (40)
and an Envelope condition (somestimes called Benveniste-Scheinkman formula):
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
p
derives utility from consumption according to u(c(t)) = c(t) and discounts future
utility at factor β ∈ (0, 1). The agent then faces the following problem:
∞ q
max ∑ β c(t)
t
(45)
k,c t=0
k t = [ β(1 − δ + A)]2t k0
ct = [ β(1 − δ + A)]2t c0
where c0 can be determined from the t = 0 resource constraint8 . Figure 2 depicts the
paths of consumption and capital under different assumptions on A.
7 Intuitively, capital needs to grow/shrink at the same rate, as to maintain that ct neither surpasses
capital in size (making the optimal choice of ct eventually unfeasible) nor that capital is accumulated
too fast (higher consumption at any point in time feasible). Thus we guess first that k t+1 = χk t .
Inserting this guess into the budget constraint and reformulating yields: ct = (1 − δ + A − χ)k t .
c k
Relating the resource constraint at t and t + 1 yields tc+t 1 = tk+t 1 = [ β(1 − δ + A)]2 which verifies the
guess.
8 Inserting k1 = [ β(1 − δ + A)]2 k0 into c0 = (1 − δ + A)k0 − k1 yields a formula for c0 .
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
1 β (1 − δ + A )
p = p (51)
2 (1 − δ + A ) k t − k t +1 2 (1 − δ + A ) k t +1 − k t +2
or, equivalently:
1 β (1 − δ + A )
√ = √
ct c t +1
which is (48) from above.
0.6
ct
0.4
0.2
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
t
= 0.5, = 0.05, A = 2
25
20
15
ct
10
ct
5
k
t
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
t
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
4 Analytical Methods
Growth Accounting
Suppose we are interested in the growth rate of a variable xt but only observe yt and
zt . If xt , yt and zt are related (in a specific fashion), we can figure out the growth rate
of xt . Suppose:
xtα
zt = β
(52)
yt
In general, we would need to take the derivative of (52) w.r.t. time and divide the result
by (52) again (applying product/chain rules), which is tedious:
xα
∂ tβ ∂ x α y− β
yt t t −β − β −1
żt = = = αxtα−1 ẋt yt − βyt ẏt xtα
∂t ∂t
−β −β
żt xtα ẋt yt yt ẏt xtα (48) zt ẋt zt ẏt
⇔ gz = = α −β = α −β
zt zt xt zt yt zt xt zt yt
1
⇔ gz = αgx − βgy ⇒ gx = ( gz + βgy ))
α
For multiplicative associations as in relationship (52), exploiting (46) is attractive. Tak-
ing logs and then the derivative with respect to time is much faster:
xα
∂ log tβ
∂ log(zt ) yt
=
∂t ∂t
∂ (α log xt − β log yt )
⇔ gz =
∂t
∂ log xt ∂ log yt
⇔ gz = α −β = αgx − βgy ⇒ ...
∂t ∂t
Example: A Cobb-Douglas production function states that output is produced accord-
ing to:
β
Yt = At K α Lt , (53)
g A = gY − αgK − βg L
α and β are factor income shares (or production factor elasticities) which can be esti-
mated from Yt , Kt and Lt and wages wt as well as rate of return on capital rt :
rt Kt wt Lt
α= , β= .
Yt Yt
Under the assumption of constant returns to scale, the Euler-Theorem implies β = 1 − α.
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
Inserting (60) and the derivative of (60) into (59) verifies the guess. The constant c and
therefore the particular solution can be determined using x0 = 1:
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
for the characteristic roots λi , i = 1, ..., n. The solution is then of the form
n
xt = ∑ c j λtn− j (63, )
j =1
where the constants c j can be traced back by using known values of xt . Specifically, this
implies that for a difference equation of order n with k ≤ n distinct characteristic roots
within the unit circle (|λi | < 1 is true for k distinct roots), a unique solution requires
that at least k values of xt have to be known. In other words, xt needs to be known at k
different points in time.
Note: the absolute values of the distinct roots λi can be ordered such that |λ1 | < |λ2 | <
... < |λk |. Let D ∈ N be the number of distinct roots within the unit circle (i.e. |λi | < 1,
∀i ≤ D) and K ∈ N the number of known values of xt , i.e. the number of initial
conditions. The following holds:
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
(1) Subtract yt−1 from yt , i.e. exploit that (7) holds for all t:
n n
y t − y t −1 = b − b + ∑ a j y t − j − ∑ a j y t − j −1
j =1 j =1
n
∑ aj
y t − y t −1 = y t − j − y t − j −1
j =1
Defining a dummy xt− j ≡ yt− j − yt− j−1 , the latter is again a homogeneous differ-
ence equation:
n
xt = ∑ a j xt− j . (64)
j =1
(2) Often it is known that the system (7) exhibits a unique steady state: from some
point in time t it holds for all past iterates that yt− j = y∗ , where j ∈ {0, 1, 2, ..., n}
so that also for future iterates yt+ j = y∗ , j ∈ {0, 1, 2, ..., n}. The steady state value
can be computed from
b
y∗ = . (66)
1 − ∑nj=1 a j
Defining a variable xt− j ≡ yt− j − y∗ , the difference equation can be rewritten in
deviations from the steady state10 :
n
xt = ∑ a j xt− j (67)
j =1
10 This follows from subtracting y∗ on both sides and applying a zero trick:
n n n
yt − y∗ = ∑ a j yt− j + b − ∑ a j y∗ + ∑ a j y∗ − y∗
j =1 j =1 j =1
n n
⇔ yt − y∗ = ∑ aj yt− j − y∗ − y∗ + y∗ ∑ aj + b
j =1 j =1
!
n n
⇔ xt = ∑ a j xt− j − y∗ 1− ∑ aj +b
j =1 j =1
!
n n
b
⇔ xt = ∑ a j xt− j − n 1− ∑ aj +b
j =1
1 − ∑ j =1 a j j =1
n
⇔ xt = ∑ a j xt− j
j =1
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Dynamic Optimization Advanced Macroeconomics
Log-linearization
No text yet, to follow opportunely.
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