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Probability Basics and Excluded Middle

This document discusses basic probability definitions and notation. It defines probability as the degree of belief in the truth or falsity of a statement ranging from 0 to 1. Notation for probability is introduced, including P(x) for the probability of statement x and ~x for the negation of x. The law of excluded middle states the probability of a statement and its negation must sum to 1. A probability distribution is defined as a collection of exclusive and exhaustive statements. The principle of indifference states that when there is no basis to choose some outcomes as more likely than others, the probability of an event is the number of outcomes in the event divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

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Ignacio Labaqui
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5 views2 pages

Probability Basics and Excluded Middle

This document discusses basic probability definitions and notation. It defines probability as the degree of belief in the truth or falsity of a statement ranging from 0 to 1. Notation for probability is introduced, including P(x) for the probability of statement x and ~x for the negation of x. The law of excluded middle states the probability of a statement and its negation must sum to 1. A probability distribution is defined as a collection of exclusive and exhaustive statements. The principle of indifference states that when there is no basis to choose some outcomes as more likely than others, the probability of an event is the number of outcomes in the event divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

Uploaded by

Ignacio Labaqui
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Data Science Math Skills

Paul Bendich and Daniel Egger


Duke University

Basic Probability Definitions:


Probability Definitions and Notation
Video companion

1 Introduction
Definition
probability—the degree of belief in the truth or falsity of a statement

Range of uncertainty from 0 to 1


Certain statement is true: probability 1
Certain statement is false: probability 0

Example Statement x: “It is raining.”

2 Notation
P (x) probability of x
∼x negation of statement x

Law of excluded middle

P (x) + P (∼ x) = 1

Probability of a statement and the probability of the negation of a statement must sum to
1.

If P (x) = 1, then P (∼ x) = 0, and vice versa.

In general, all outcomes of a probability distribution must sum to 1.

Definitions
probability distribution—collection of statements that are exclusive and exhaustive
exclusive—given complete information, no more than one of the statements can be true

1
Data Science Math Skills
Paul Bendich and Daniel Egger
Duke University

exhaustive—given complete information, at least one of the statements must be true

A distribution X consisting of n statements would be denoted

X = {x1 , x2 , x3 , ..., xn }.

The probability of each statement must sum to 1, which is denoted.

P (x1 ) + P (x2 ) + P (x3 ) + ... + P (xn ) = 1.

3 Principle of indifference
For the i-th outcome xi in a distribution with n possible outcomes,
1
P (xi ) = .
n
Example: Drawing an ace of spades from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. The probability
1
of drawing the ace of spades is 52 .

General statement
When there is no basis to choose some outcomes as more likely than others,
number of outcomes as defined in event
P (event) = .
total number of possible outcomes in universe
Example: Event is drawing a queen, which has four outcomes in the event. The total number
4 1
of outcomes is 52, so the probability of drawing a queen is 52 = 13 .

Example: Event is rolling an even number on a six-sided die, which has three outcomes in
the event. The total number of outcomes is 6, so the probability of rolling an even is 36 = 12 .

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