Nama: Naufal Ghani Ibrahim
NRP : 02411640000112
Manajemen Proyek
Kelas B
Tugas 03
Buku “Project Management: The Managerial Process” Edisi 5
Chapter 7, Halaman: 246-247
Exercise (Apendix 7.1)
Soal:
1. Given the project information below, what is the probability of completing the
National Holiday Toy project in 93 time units?
Jawaban:
Most likely
Optm. (a)
Pess. (b)
Activity Act Variance
(m)
Desc. Predecessor Critical
ID Time:
Design
1 None 6 12 24 13 9 Yes
Package
Design
2 1 16 19 28 20 4 Yes
Product
Build
3 1 4 7 10 7 1 No
Package
Secure
4 2 21 30 39 30 9 Yes
Patent
Build
5 2 17 29 47 30 25 Yes
Product
6 Paint 3,4,5 4 7 10 7 1 Yes
Test
7 6 13 16 19 16 1 Yes
Market
AON:
Nama: Naufal Ghani Ibrahim
NRP : 02411640000112
Manajemen Proyek
Kelas B
0 1 13 13 2 33 33 4 63
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 13 13 13 20 33 33 30 63
33 5 63
0 0
33 30 63
13 3 20 63 6 70 70 7 86
43 43 0 0 0 0
56 7 63 63 7 70 70 16 86
Dalam kasus ini, ditemukan 2 critical path: 1,2,4,6,7 dan 1,2,5,6,7. Karena jalur terpanjang
(longest path) bernilai sama untuk kedua jalur (86), maka perhitungan kemungkinan/peluang
dapat menggunakan salah satu jalur (dipilih jalur 1,2,4,6,7)
= = =1
√∑ √ √
2. The Global Tea and Organic Juice companies have merged. The following
information has been collected for the “Consolidation Project.”
Nama: Naufal Ghani Ibrahim
NRP : 02411640000112
Manajemen Proyek
Kelas B
Pertanyaan
1. Compute the expected time for each activity.
2. Compute the variance for each activity.
3. Compute the expected project duration.
4. What is the probability of completing the project by day 112? Within
116 days?
5. What is the probability of completing “Negotiate with Unions” by
day 90?
Jawaban:
2.2. Compute the variance for each activity
Activiti Predece Acc
Descripton a m b Variance Critical
es ssor Time
1 Codify Accounts - 16 19 28 20 4 Yes
File articles of
2 - 30 30 30 30 0 No
unification
Unify Price and Credit
3 - 60 72 90 73 25 No
Policy
Unify personnel
4 - 18 27 30 26 4 No
policies
5 Unify data processing 1 17 29 47 30 25 Yes
6 Train accounting staff 1 4 7 10 7 1 No
Pilot run data
7 5 12 15 18 15 1 Yes
processing
Calculate P & IL and
8 6,7 6 12 24 13 9 Yes
BS
9 Transfer real property 2 18 27 30 26 4 No
10 Train salesforce 3 20 35 50 35 25 No
10
11 Negotiate with uniouns 4 40 55 60 100 No
0
12 Determine capital needs 8 11 20 29 20 9 Yes
Explain personnel
13 11 14 23 26 22 4 No
policies
14 Secure line of credit 9,12 13 16 19 16 1 Yes
10,12,1
15 End 0 0 0 0 0 Yes
4
Nama: Naufal Ghani Ibrahim
NRP : 02411640000112
Manajemen Proyek
Kelas B
[Link] the expected project duration
Ekspektasi durasi proyek adalah 144 hari
2.4. What is the probability of completing the project by day 112? Within
116 days?
= = = - 0,28
√∑ √ √
Nama: Naufal Ghani Ibrahim
NRP : 02411640000112
Manajemen Proyek
Kelas B
= = = 0,28
√∑ √ √
2.5. What is the probability of completing “Negotiate with Unions” by day 90?
Durasi lintasan kritis (Critical path): 86 hari
= = = 0,46
√∑ √ √