7.

THE RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL CONSTRAINS: THE TRANSITION

INTRODUCTION

In many ways, Russia’s geopolitical strength derives from its geographic weaknesses. In fact since
Russia has few natural barriers protecting the core of the country its politics has the aim to expand
defendable borders and to create a buffer zone around the heartland, composed by Moscow and
the Volga region.
Basically the target of Russia’s policy is to expand its power in order to defend itself but also to
absorb large population hostile to Russia and with different cultures (consolidation policy).
Russia’s lack of access to the oceans has stuck its position as a land power by controlling the fixed
points:
 Carpathian mountains (Ukraine, Moldova) defence from West, Europe
 Caucasus mountains (Chechnya, Georgia, Armenia) defence from South, Islamic world
 North European Plain (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus) defence from North, Sweden
 Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tien Shan mountains defence from East, Asia and
China

FROM URSS TO PUTIN

Soviet Revolution was the most important social experiment in the history where the society was
totally shaped according to the Communist doctrine. It was also the most successful era in control
people with different ethnics, religion and cultures with a policy of repression of dissidents and
the mixing of population in order to weaken the reason to fight against the state and among
different ethnics.
When Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 at the end of Cold War, Moscow lost control of the power
and the country was severely weakened, with the fall of its economy and its military power (defeat
in Chechnya).
But starting with Vladimir Putin’s presidency in 2000, Russia was able to reverse its losses in
another and more successful war in Chechnya and Russia’s influence in former Soviet countries
began to rise steadily; in short, Russia has returned to its traditional status of legitimate regional
power with a policy of extend its influence in the buffer zones and with an internal consolidation.
Today Russia population is about 143 Million people and is characterized by high infant mortality,
low birth rates and low welfare; Russia is also affected by both demographic shift, the massive
Muslim immigration (today are 13% of total population) while ethnic Russians (Slavic and
Orthodox) are in decline and the generational shift with more than 20% of people born after 1992
that do not experience the communism regime.
Russia has an energy-based economic model so it is strictly linked to the oil/gas price.
Putin was named by Boris Yeltsin in 1998 to rebuilt the state seizing assets and rebuilt strong
internally Russia. After this first phase, Putin projected power abroad (second phase) and moved
into the buffer states (former Soviet Union countries) to protect the Russian borderlands.
Putin is the strongest leader of Russia since Soviet Union has fallen but is not the only owner of
power, in fact there are also other leaders that control the military, energy and industry
apparatus; most of them belong to the Security System that was able to control the Soviet Union
and are part of the Politburo, a group under Putin influence.
Putin’s new strategy (third phase) for the country is based on:
 making Russia a stronger state
  defend itself internally and in the buffer states
 economic independence with a new industrial system
 isolate the country financially
 the military power,
 the SILOVIKIS (security apparatus)
 enhance economic relationships with China and Japan (exporting energy to Asia).

PUTIN and ALEXANDER DUGIN

Dugin was one the most important ideologue of Eurasianism, a doctrine that identify Russia with
Eurasia (East Europe+Asia ) and promote Patriotism in politics and Russian Socialism in economy,
favourable to traditions and to the Orthodox church. Dugin had a strong influence on Putin vision
of Russia that promote a vision based on Patriotism in Politics and Liberalism in economy and has
the favour of Orthodox Church (It thinks that Putin can reshape Russia’s traditions).
Most of the people also think that Putin could give a chance to have a better life ensuring Russia’s
internal security and projecting its power outside and are ready to sacrifice a lot in their life
believing in this ideology; however Russian middle class is growing as an economical power and
start asking also for political power. They are against Putin and the Orthodox Church promoting an
ideology more open to the Western values.

UKRAINE

Ukraine has a very important role for Russia, serving as the primary transit state for exports to
Europe, as a buffer state towards Western Europe, for the coastline along the Black Sea to the
south and as agricultural supply for Russia (Ukraine located on the Northern European Plain, fertile
area and without natural Barriers against invaders).
Since the fall of Soviet Union, Ukraine has been contested between Western governments, that
offer the possibility of better welfare and richness, and Russia that basically has the control of
most of Ukraine energy sources (90% of gas supply from Gazprom).
In 2004 Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO and also in Ukraine the Orange revolution led
the victory of the coalition pro-Western; Russia’s effort to influence political transitions in the
former Soviet periphery failed but in 2006 Russia used the “Gas Weapon” against them with gas
cut-offs and price hikes to pressure the country politically.
In 2008 NATO failed to accept Ukraine and Georgia membership and Russia invaded Georgia to re-
establish its military credibility sending a message to all the former Soviet Union countries that the
West will not be ready to fight for them. As a consequence, Russia’s influence rise again in these
regions and in 2013 Ukraine decline the European Union association.

BALTICS

In Baltics states (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) there are ethnic Russian minority (about 25% of
population). Baltics states fears Russia will repeat its strategy of citing threats to ethnic Russian in
the country as a pretext for intervening and take again the control over them; in fact, Russia is
surrounding them building up military forces near St. Petersburg.
Baltics do not want to accept Russia control and are trying to get their independency from it,
however Russia has also the “gas weapon” since most of Baltics energy sources, mainly gas, are
supplied by Russia (Russia increase gas price to threaten them).
KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan is one of Russia’s closest post-Soviet allies, and the two countries are in a series of
military and economic alliances. Kazakhstan play a very important role for Russia as a buffer space
towards Middle East and Far East and for the access to energy sources (Kazakhstan has a lot of
Gas).
In 2010 Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus join together in the Custom Union, an economical and
political integration. It is not a recreation of Soviet Union but a looser alliance in which Russia
increase its influence with “Soft power”.

THE ARTIC

With the melting of ice new possible commercial road are available, a considerable amount of
natural gas (30% of world reserves), oil (20% of world reserves) and also rare earth mineral
became accessible.

MIDDLE EAST

With the Arab Spring, governments of the Islamic World come closer to the Islamic ideology in
opposition to the secular military regimes established in the cold war and promoted by Russia; this
could have an impact on Russia’s export of energy and weapon to them. Another effect of the
Arab Spring is the possibility to a potential reassessment of Egypt security treaty with Israel.
All these reason led to the intervention of Russia, in association with Turkey, in Syria to support
Assad regime. This fact represents a message to different directions: to Russia itself saying “we are
able to project our power outside” and to the Western countries saying that a solution in Syria
need also Russia participation.
Bur Russia alliance with Turkey cannot least forever because of their historical fight for the control
over the Black Sea.