Adaptive Risk Management Strategy (ARMS)

ARMS is a quantitative volatility-focused approach to investing. The strategy generates superior

risk-mitigating returns by segregating asset classes, based on their historical volatility range,

into two portfolios, each alternatively deployed based on market-implied volatility signals.

Feb 28th 2013

Submitted for Review to National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM)

Tahar Mjigal

Director of Risk Management & Technical Analyst

Mr. Mjigal is one of three members of an investment committee of a Dallas family office firm.

In his role he covers strategy and security research, technical analysis, and risk control for a 10

asset class portfolio encompassing equity, fixed income and alternative investments. Previously

he worked as an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.

Mr. Mjigal is the author of “Tactical Management in the Secular Bear Market,” published

October 2010, and has contributed several articles to Investor’s Business Daily monthly ETFs

report in 2011 and 2012.

Mr. Mjigal holds an MBA with an emphasis in Finance and International Business from

Oklahoma City University, Oklahoma where his thesis was on Portfolio Risk Management. He

earned a B.S. in Engineering Statistics and Applied Economics from the National Institute of

Statistics in Rabat, Morocco.

He founded the Dallas Chapter of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP) and

served as President from 2005 - 2012.

Contact: Tahar Mjigal 972-387-0660

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 Abstract

Modern Portfolio Theory’s (MPT), in its traditional form and its current variation of using

multiple asset classes beyond cash, equities and bonds, has, in recent years, failed to deliver on

its goals of achieving higher returns and lower volatility.

Since 1920, the U.S equity market (as measured by the S&P 500) has averaged a return of 9.8%

annualized with a standard deviation of 18%, while bonds have averaged a 7% return about a 9%

standard deviation. However, in the past two decades, volatility, especially in equities, has

dramatically increased with some historic spikes in market volatility. Additionally, the double

digit equity market returns of the 90’s have shrunk to low single digits. Investors have had to

endure long periods for U.S equity market returns to revert to the long term mean. They have

shown less patience with traditional long term strategy promises, especially since the financial

crisis in 2008. During the recent crisis, extreme market volatility tested the risk tolerances of

investors and pushed many long term investors out of equities into very conservative strategies.

All these tectonic shifts in market behavior coupled with a challenging macroeconomic and

political environment have tested long held beliefs and investment managers’ skills. In the last

twelve years, many well known managers, both in public and private funds have thrown in the

towel because they couldn’t adapt to the current secular bear market environment. Many die hard

buy-and-hold investors have had to accept active management strategies.

The current market environment that managers face is something few have ever experienced

before. The challenges include high unemployment, anemic economic growth, inflation

uncertainty, unprecedented intervention by central banks, and potential looming major political

and economic catalysts - from political convulsions in Middle East countries revolution to the

seemingly intractable European debt crisis - that could precipitate a major market crisis. Baby

2
boomers, which make up the largest demographic group of the U.S population, are moving into

their retirement years and are naturally not willing to bear the current market volatility.

All these factors have repeatedly sent shock waves through the market during this secular bear

environment and look set to continue to roil the markets for the foreseeable future. Active

management strategies are an increasingly utilized trend among investors seeking to navigate

market volatility.

A principal weakness of MPT is the change in correlation amount asset classes during extreme

market crises periods. The change in correlations violates a foundational assumption of the

strategy and so fails to deliver on MPT’s promise of lower volatility at a time of its greatest need.

There is also the behavioral science aspect: many managers, like investors, have a difficult time

rebalancing portfolios and cutting allocations to rising asset classes and buying falling assets

classes.

In this paper I will present a quantitative, risk management-based approach to investing called

Adaptive Risk Management Strategy (ARMS). ARMS will guide investors, using multiple asset

classes, to construct a tactically managed ARMS portfolio.

The ARMS system use a single signal to switch between two portfolios during period of rising

and falling markets.

With today’s broad range of asset class and sector ETFs, it is easier to utilize these vehicles to

gain exposure to an asset class. In outlining the methodology, ETFs will be utilized as the proxy

for the asset class.

The ARMS is methodology consists of two major components:

Component 1: “Asset Class Volatility Range Ranking System” The methodology uses a

volatility range screen on the universe of asset classes. First, from an ETFs database screen for

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ETFs that fit each asset class in broad universe of asset classes (in our example we have chosen

five ETFs in each asset class), calculate the volatility range for these potential ETF candidates

and rank all the ETFs by volatility range. Section the ETFs in volatility range ranking system

into two volatility categories, and then create two portfolio alternatives that form the “ARMS

ETFs Portfolio”. The portfolio consists of a low volatility asset classes portfolio (P1) and a high

volatility asset classes portfolio (P2) that help investors to control portfolio risk better and adapt

to changing market trends.

Component 2: “Market Implied Volatility System” alerts investors with market reversal (exits

and entries) signals to adapt ARMS ETFs Portfolio to new market trends. This system uses

market implied volatility augmented with simple rules.

I will discuss how to use ARMS methodology to:

1- Select from a universe of low correlation asset classes to create a new easy to manage

asset allocation.

2- Construct an ARMS ETFs portfolio

3- Identify exits and entries

4- Tactically manage the ARMS ETFs portfolio against market volatility.

In our illustration process we will use the universe of broad asset class ETFs - selected because

they have a low correlation to the S&P 500 and to each other - to construct the ARMS ETFs

portfolio. The strategy is designed to be fully invested during both down and up market trends

using ARMS ETFs portfolio components portfolio 1 and portfolio 2.

We will show the strategy’s back-testing results and provide portfolio statistics to support its long

term out-performance over the S&P 500.

The ARMS process is summarized in the following flow chart:

4
 Asset Class Proxies
COMPONENT 1

Volatility Range Ranking System

Segregate into Two Volatility

Portfolios, P1 & P2

ARMS ETF’s Portfolio

Market Implied
COMPONENT 2 Volatility Signal System

Exits & Entries

ARMS
Portfolio Management

Figure 1 shows ARMS Strategy steps

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The strategy back-testing has shown very promising results. For example, in the full period of

back testing ARMS has beaten 99.53% of all US equity managers. For comparison, the S&P 500

has beaten 52.89% of those managers, over the same time period. Additionally, the strategy was

profitable and out-performed S&P 500 significantly on a risk adjusted returns basis. The back

testing process of ARMS was performed in an Excel spreadsheet using market data and the

ARMS market implied volatility signal system to switch between the portfolios. The overview of

the back testing results is summarized in pages 22 through 30.

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Adaptive Risk Management Strategy (ARMS)

Overview

The Strategy consists of two major steps:

• ARMS Volatility Range Filter

A quantitative methodology is used to modify an MPT-like extended asset class portfolio to a

new tactical asset allocation. The new allocation allows investors to build a successful tactical

portfolio that is adaptive to the current market environment.

The system is a simple quantitative ranking volatility filter that guides investors to select and

rank investments by volatility range and then group and segregate these investments by volatility

range into the two components of the ARMS portfolio strategy for deployment in a successful

tactical management system.

• ARMS Market Implied Volatility System

ARMS market implied volatility system is a methodology to identify entries and exits for ARMS

ETFs portfolio. It is based primarily on the S&P 500 implied volatility (VIX) with augmented

other simple criteria.

Part 1: ARMS Volatility Range Filter

1- Overview

First we screen for ETF proxies of MPT-like extended asset allocation model, and then rank

ETFs in ascending order by volatility range.

Once we determine volatility range for each ETF, we group them by volatility categories, and

then to two components. Component 1 assigned to portfolio 1 (P1) to capitalize on the downside

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momentum and component 2 is assigned to portfolio 2 (P2) to capitalize on the upside

momentum. These two components of the portfolio play different roles in portfolio management.

The process will be explained in detail in this paper.

2- ETFs Proxies’ Volatility Range

The MPT-like extended asset allocation consists of the following asset classes:

• Money Market

• US Fixed Income

• International Fixed Income

• US Equity

• International Equity

• High Yield

• Real Estate

• Natural Resources

• Multi-Strategy

• Venture

MPT extended asset classes was based on the correlation between asset classes, volatility of asset

classes, and historical returns. The strategy has worked well since the 1980's and was popular

among institutional investors but in the most recent decade became dysfunctional when the

correlation between asset classes has increased significantly.

In the following step I am going to calculate volatility range for each ETF:

Choose as many ETFs as desired per asset class from an ETF database. There are over 1200

ETFs available today but 98% of the daily ETF trading volume is represented by about 500 ETFs.

For illustration purposes I will screen for five ETFs per asset class, a total of 50 ETFs universe.

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Calculate the volatility for each proxy by simply using [Link] to display all ETFs

volatility table at once, using excel and the volatility range formulas: Max (σ)-Min (σ) calculates

all ETFs volatility range where:

Max (σ): maximum volatility

Min (σ): minimum volatility

The calculation is summarized in table 1.

Note 1: Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns. i.e. 20- days’ volatility is

the standard deviation of the past 20-1 day returns multiplied by SQRT (252) from February 07,

2011 through February 07, 2013.

Note 2: The selected period has to include a stressed market period with high implied volatility

and a stable market with low implied volatility.

Asset Class Symbol Min Vol Max Vol Vol Range

Money Market SHV 0.1 0.4 0.3
CYB 0.8 5.9 5.1
SHY 0.2 1.5 1.3
GSY 2.5 5.9 3.4
MINT 0.4 1.58 1.18
US Fixed Income TIP 2.3 15.8 13.5
GVI 1 5.5 4.5
AGG 1.2 7.7 6.5
UUP 3.4 13.7 10.3
IEF 2.6 13.6 11
International Fixed EMB 1.8 16 14.2
BWX 3.6 13.2 9.6
IGOV 4.1 14.9 10.8
ISHG 3.6 14.6 11
PCY 2.1 13.1 11
High Yield HYG 3.1 26.7 23.6
LQD 2.3 14.1 11.8
JNK 2.8 25.9 23.1
HYD 1.4 26.2 24.8
BKLN 1.8 19.3 17.5

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 US Equity SPY 5.5 49.4 43.9
MDY 7.1 60.5 53.4
QQQ 7.7 50.2 42.5
IWM 8.1 65.4 57.3
DIA 5.5 43.7 38.2
International Equity EFA 6.1 60.6 54.5
EEM 7.7 58.8 51.1
EWG 7.8 72.1 64.3
DLS 7.3 55.9 48.6
EWC 6.6 44.7 38.1
Multi-Strategy QAI 1.9 23.5 21.6
DEF 4.4 35.4 31
AOM 2.7 17.3 14.6
DEF 4.4 35.4 31
ALT 2.3 19.6 17.3
Real Estate IYR 4.6 61 56.4
XHB 9.9 62 52.1
ITB 9.7 62.1 52.4
ICF 5.8 64.8 59
RWO 5.3 62.9 57.6
Natural Resources DBC 6.4 34.6 28.2
GUNR 14.5 82.8 68.3
OIH 13.7 72.7 59
XLE 9.4 60.6 51.2
GLD 7.4 36.3 28.9
Venture IWC 8.6 63.8 55.2
PSP 6.6 66 59.4
IJS 8.2 63.3 55.1
FDM 10.4 70.7 60.3
DGS 6.5 53.4 46.9

Table 1 shows ETFs proxies listed by volatility range within the MPT-like asset classes.

In the following step I am going to reclassify the extended MPT-like asset classes to two

volatility asset class categories in order to better control portfolio risk.

Let’s rank volatility range in ascending order for all the 50 ETFs from the above table using the

following volatility range ranking system:

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 a. Low volatility: (0-15)%

b. High volatility: 16% and greater

It is unlikely to find high volatility ETFs with low volatility range in a period that includes a

stressed market and stable market.

3- Modifying Asset Classes Classification

Asset Class volatility Category Symbol Min Vol Max Vol Vol Range
Low Volatility 0 =<Vol Range)=<15%
SHV 0.1 0.4 0.3
MINT 0.4 1.58 1.18
SHY 0.2 1.5 1.3
GSY 2.5 5.9 3.4
GVI 1 5.5 4.5
CYB 0.8 5.9 5.1
AGG 1.2 7.7 6.5
BWX 3.6 13.2 9.6
UUP 3.4 13.7 10.3
IGOV 4.1 14.9 10.8
IEF 2.6 13.6 11
ISHG 3.6 14.6 11
PCY 2.1 13.1 11
LQD 2.3 14.1 11.8
TIP 2.3 15.8 13.5
EMB 1.8 16 14.2
AOM 2.7 17.3 14.6
High Volatility Vol Range >= 16%
ALT 2.3 19.6 17.3
BKLN 1.8 19.3 17.5
QAI 1.9 23.5 21.6
JNK 2.8 25.9 23.1
HYG 3.1 26.7 23.6
HYD 1.4 26.2 24.8
DBC 6.4 34.6 28.2
GLD 7.4 36.3 28.9
DEF 4.4 35.4 31
DEF 4.4 35.4 31
EWC 6.6 44.7 38.1

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 DIA 5.5 43.7 38.2
QQQ 7.7 50.2 42.5
SPY 5.5 49.4 43.9
DGS 6.5 53.4 46.9
DLS 7.3 55.9 48.6
EEM 7.7 58.8 51.1
XLE 9.4 60.6 51.2
XHB 9.9 62 52.1
ITB 9.7 62.1 52.4
MDY 7.1 60.5 53.4
EFA 6.1 60.6 54.5
IJS 8.2 63.3 55.1
IWC 8.6 63.8 55.2
IYR 4.6 61 56.4
IWM 8.1 65.4 57.3
RWO 5.3 62.9 57.6
ICF 5.8 64.8 59
OIH 13.7 72.7 59
PSP 6.6 66 59.4
FDM 10.4 70.7 60.3
EWG 7.8 72.1 64.3
GUNR 14.5 82.8 68.3

Table 2 shows the 50 ETFs from previous MPT-like extended asset classes re-classified and
grouped to two asset class categorized by volatility range.

The new allocation consists of two volatility asset classes’ categories:

The first asset class is less risky than the second asset class.

From the above table using the volatility range ranking system, all 50 ETFs

are ranked in ascending order and separated into two volatility categories.

I have also reclassified MPT-like asset classes and expanded the list to more asset classes:

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 Money Market High Yield
U.S Fixed Inc U.S Equity
Int’l Fixed Inc Int’l Equity
Currencies, Global Equity
Global Fixed Inc Multi-Strategies
Fixed Inc Multi-Strategies Real Estate
Commodity,
Venture

1-Low Volatility 2-High Volatility

Figure 2 shows MPT-like extended asset classes grouped to two asset class volatility categories.

• Low Volatility

1- Money Market

2- U.S Fixed Income

3- International Fixed Income

4- Currencies.

5- Market Neutral

6- Global Fixed Income

7- Fixed Inc Multi-Strategies

• High Volatility

8- High Yield

9- US Equity

10- International Equity

11- Equity Multi-strategies

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 12- Real Estate

13- Commodity

14- Venture

4-ARMS Portfolio Construction

Let’s reduce the list of 50 ETFs in table 2 to 13 ETFs to simplify the back-testing process.

We could add more non fixed income ETFs to low volatility category but several of these ETFs

strategies don't have enough historical data for back testing.

Asset Class volatility Category Period: Feb 07, 2011-Feb 08,2013

Low Volatility Symbol Min Max 0=<Vol Range =<15%

Ishares Intermediate US Gov Bond GVI 1 5.5 4.5
Ishares Barclays Aggregate Bond AGG 1.2 7.7 6.5
Ishares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury IEF 2.6 13.6 11
Powershares DB US $ Bullish UUP 3.4 13.7 10.3
Ishares Treasury Barclays Tips TIP 2.3 15.8 13.5
High Volatility Vol Range >= 16%
Ishares Iboxx High Yield Corp Bond HYG 3.1 26.7 23.6
Proshares DB Commodity Index DBC 6.4 34.6 28.2
SPDR S&P 400 MDY 7.5 60.5 53
Ishares MSCI EFA index EFA 6.1 60.6 54.5
Ishares MSCI Emerging Markets EEM 7.7 58.8 51.1
Ishares DJ US Real Estate IYR 4.6 61 56.4
Ishares Russell Microcap IWC 8.6 63.8 55.2
S&P 500 Implied Volatility Index VIX 12.4 48 35.6

Table 3 shows the new asset class volatility categories with selected ETFs list for back testing.

As shown above we have constructed portfolio 1 and portfolio 2. Portfolio 1 is composed of 5

low volatility ETFs. Portfolio 2 is composed of 7 high volatility ETFs.

We could include more or less ETFs in the portfolio1 and the portfolio 2 as desired.

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Portfolio 1 and portfolio 2 components:

Asset Class volatility Category Period: Feb 07, 2011-Feb 08,2013 ARMS ETFs Portfolio Asset Allocation

Low Volatility Symbol Min Max 0=<Vol Range =<15% Portfolio 1 Equal Weight
Ishares Intermediate US Gov Bond GVI 1 5.5 4.5 20%
Ishares Barclays Aggregate Bond AGG 1.2 7.7 6.5 20%
Ishares Barclays 7-10 year Treasury IEF 2.6 13.6 11 P1 20%
Powershares DB US $ Bullish UUP 3.4 13.7 10.3 20%
Ishares Treasury Barclays Tips TIP 2.3 15.8 13.5 20%
High Volatility Vol Range >= 16% Portfolio 2 Equal Weight
Ishares Iboxx High Yield Corp Bond HYG 3.1 26.7 23.6 14.28%
Proshares DB Commodity Index DBC 6.4 34.6 28.2 14.28%
SPDR S&P 400 MDY 7.5 60.5 53 14.28%
Ishares MSCI EFA index EFA 6.1 60.6 54.5 P2 14.28%
Ishares MSCI Emerging Markets EEM 7.7 58.8 51.1 14.28%
Ishares DJ US Real Estate IYR 4.6 61 56.4 14.28%
Ishares Russell Microcap IWC 8.6 63.8 55.2 14.28%
S&P 500 Implied Volatility Index VIX 12.4 48 35.6
TOTAL P=P1+ P2 100.00%

Table 4 shows ARMS portfolio components P1 & P2.

P1: Portfolio 1 consists of low volatility asset classes.

P2: Portfolio 2 consists of high volatility asset classes.

ARMS ETFs portfolio (P) adapts to P1 or P2 based on market implied volatility system alert

signals.

P1 holdings: GVI, AGG, IEF, UUP, TIP

P2 holdings: HYG, MDY, EFA, EEM, IYR, DBC, IWC.

ARMS uses portfolio P2 when a new buy signal is registered and a new uptrend has started.

When a new sell signal is registered and a new downtrend has started P2 is sold and the proceeds

invested in P1. In a narrow trading range, the ARMS signals will alert investors whether to adapt

to P1 or P2.

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Portfolio 1 could be more diversified than just fixed income or currency ETFs. I have included

only fixed income and currency ETFs in portfolio 1 for back testing because of shorter history

data availability of some alternative low volatility ETF asset classes including market neutral,

conservative multi-strategies ETFs, and global fixed income.

Part 2 Market Implied Volatility System

2.1 Overview
Since the secular bear began in 2000 we have seen two bear markets (greater than 40% drops)

and multiple corrections. We are still expecting more to come. Investor’s psychology has become

more averse to market volatility and they are increasingly embracing active strategies with

integrated active risk control models.

In this part I am going to discuss market implied volatility system. This system alerts investors to

major reversal points of the market and removes damaging human behavioral bias from

investments decisions.

VIX is a forward looking indicator and predictive especially when it is integrated properly in a

comprehensive system.

VIX is a volatility index created by the Chicago Board of Exchange and measures the implied

volatility of the S&P 500 option index and it expected 30 day volatility. The VIX formula and

clarification is beyond the scope of this paper. It is also known as the “fear index” or market

psychology gauge. However, due to its randomness in the short term, I have decided to use

weekly closing values to smooth and remove market implied volatility noise. The system is a

simple mathematical formula composed 30 week and 12 week exponential moving average of

market implied volatility combined with other simple rules.

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2.2 Market Implied Volatility system:

Let’s calculate EMA (30) and EMA (12) weeks of VIX weekly closing values.

Using the formula Di=EMAi (30)-EMAi (12); i=1... N, calculate Di (see back testing table).

Where: Di is the distance between EMAi (30) and EMAi (12) at value i.

ARMS volatility exits and entries system is summarized as follow:

Sell signal subject to:

(1) Di <0

Buy Signal subject to:

(2)
Di>0

- A buy signal is valid when Di>0

- A sell signal is valid when Di<0

Market corrections and rallies respectively from peaks and the lows without the above conditions

are invalid and the market fluctuation is considered within the normal market trend volatility

range, any attempt to sell or buy outside those rules is risky and fall under active trading, not

active management.

If Di> 0 indicates it is time to adapt to portfolio 2.

If Di<0 indicates it is time to adapt to portfolio1

Part 3 Back testing

3.1 Overview

In the ARMS ETFs portfolio, there are two components, P1 and P2, as described in table 4.

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When a buy signal is issued according to the ARMS volatility system, we buy ETFs that are

within P2 or within the high volatility asset class category. This portfolio stays invested as long

as D>0 to benefit from upside market momentum.

When a sell signal is issued we sell P2 holdings and buy P1 ETFs. This portfolio stays invested

as long as D<0 to benefit from the downside momentum. If the market is in a trading range, the

ARMS signal will determine the portfolio P1 or P2.

Based on the ARMS back testing strategy, entry and exit frequencies are about two to three times

a year.

The ARMS strategy goal is to outperform the S&P 500 on a risk adjusted returns basis.

Due to the limited availability of market price history for some of the ETFs that we have

included in ARMS ETFs portfolio, I have selected a back testing period from April 2007 to

December 31st, 2012. This period includes a major bear market and a major bull market. No

commissions or slippage was factored in this back testing.

The buys and the sales were executed at the end of the week in which a signal was triggered. Part

or all of the back testing process could be automated in major platforms.

The back-testing results are summarized below.

3.2 Back-Testing Statistics

The following table is a comparison of the average annual historical returns of the ARMS

portfolio vs. MPT-like asset class buy and hold portfolio and S&P 500.

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 Historical Returns
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 AVG
ARMS 2.6 -11.6 36.6 15.11 10.16% 11.63 9.074
Buy & Hold 6.38 -18.13 19.02 13.26 1.07% 9.99 5.088
S&P 500 3.93 -37 23.58 13.81 1.12% 11.39 2.81

Table 5 shows the average annual historical returns of ARMS, buy and hold portfolio, and the
S&P 500 index.

R is k Sta tis tic s

Sinc e A pr 2 0 07 AR M S S& P 5 00
N um ber of U p M onths 47 39
N um be r of D ow n M onths 22 29
U p M onths (% ) 6 8% 5 7%
D ow n M onths (% ) 3 1% 4 3%
U ps ide c a pture ra tio 7 6 .17 %
D ow ns ide c a pture ra tio 3 1 .02 %
A ve ra g e A nnua l R e turn 1 0 .75 % 2 .81 %
Sta nda rd D e via tion 9 .63 % 16 .48 %
Sha rpe R a tio 1 .1 2 0 .16
M a x a nnua l dra w dow n -1 9.1 8 -5 3.3
2 00 8 yea r re s ult -1 1.6 -37
A V G A RM S s i gn al s p e r a y e ar A p p rx 3

Table 6 shows ARMS portfolio and S&P 500 risk statistics.

Chart 1 shows the growth of a hypothetical $ 10000 from April 2007 through December 2012.

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 Peer Group Analysis
120.00%

100.00%

80.00%

60.00 ARMS
% S&P 500
40.00%

20.00%

0.00%
3 Yr* 5 Yr* Full Period*

Chart 2 shows ARMS and SP 500 out-performances percentages of all US domestic equity funds.

3 yr*: Total US domestic equity funds was 2399

5 Yr*: Total US domestic equity funds was 2241

Full period*: Total US domestic equity funds was 2156

In 3 years, ARMS out-performed 78.74% of all U.S domestic equity funds while the S&P 500

out-performed 61.97% funds.

In 5 years, ARMS out-performed 99.70% of all U.S domestic equity funds while the S&P 500

out-performed 49.72% of those funds.

In the full period of back testing, ARMS out-performed 99.53% of all U.S domestic funds while

the S&P 500 out-performed 52.89% of those funds.

3.3 Evaluation

The result of back testing shows the ARMS portfolio has out-performed the S&P 500 from April

2007 through December 2012; the portfolio was tactically managed and fully invested. The

downside capture ratio is only 31% with a standard deviation of 9.63% and average return of

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10.75% vs. the S&P 500 average return of 2.81% and standard deviation of 16.48%. ARMS out-

performed not only the S&P 500 on risk adjusted returns basis but also the diversified buy and

hold portfolio. The ARMS portfolio strategy out-performed the S&P 500 on all risk statistics.

Conclusion

This paper has shown how the Adaptive Risk Management Strategy can be used to improve

multi-asset class allocation’s risk adjusted returns and the returns from holding the S&P 500. The

risk statistics data showed a favorable comparison of ARMS against the S&P 500 and all US

equity managers.

The ARMS portfolio was fully invested throughout the back testing period by investing either in

portfolio 1 ETFs or portfolio 2 ETFs, rather than a risk on risk off strategy. In this manner the

portfolio can capitalize on the uptrend momentum as well as the downside momentum. The

strategy can accommodate conservative investors by adjusting the volatility range ranking

system filter of the high volatility asset class investments range from Vol range >=16 to

16=<Vol range =<25 and expanding the investment choices within low risk asset class

investments such as international and emerging market debt, global equity & income ETFs, and

low volatility multi-strategies.

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 Appendix A

Month ARMS Re trurns S&P 500 Re turns 10-Jan -5.62 -3.7

7-Apr 0.38 3.7 Fe b 3.3 2.85
May -0.92 3.26 Mar 8.54 5.88
Jun -0.04 -1.78 A pr 2.86 1.48
Jul 0.74 -3.2 May -3.3 -8.2
Aug 1.15 1.29 Jun 0.23 -5.39
Se p -0.33 3.58 Jul 0.12 6.88
Oct 0.69 1.48 A ug 0.96 -4.74
N ov 1.87 -4.4 Se p 2.42 8.76
De c -0.94 -0.86 O ct 3.25 3.69
8-Jan 2.3 -6.12 N ov 0.68 -0.23
Fe b 0.08 -3.48 De c 1.67 6.53
11-Jan 1.24 2.26
Mar -0.56 -0.6
Fe b 2.71 3.2
Apr -1.25 4.75
Mar 1.43 -0.11
May -0.73 1.07
A pr 3.93 2.85
Jun -8.84 -8.6
May -1.73 -1.35
Jul -3.64 -0.99
Jun -0.42 -1.83
Aug -0.14 1.22 Jul -0.81 -2.15
Se p -2.15 -9.08 A ug 2.31 -5.68
Oct -1.87 -16.94 Se p 0.75 -7.18
N ov 2.98 -7.49 O ct -1.56 10.77
De c 2.22 0.78 N ov 1.44 -0.51
9-Jan 0.37 -8.57 De c 0.87 0.85
Fe b -0.72 -10.99 12-Jan 6 4.36
Mar 1 8.54 Fe b 1.96 4.06
Apr 2.05 9.39 Mar 0.9 3.13
May 5.96 5.31 A pr 0.7 -0.75
May -8 -6.27
Jun -2.69 0.02
Jun 5.26 3.96
Jul 10.31 7.41
Jul 1.78 1.26
Aug 8.32 3.36
A ug 0.85 1.98
Se p 2.08 3.57 Se p 0.38 2.42
Oct 0.04 -1.98 O ct -0.1 -1.98
N ov 3.73 5.74 N ov 0.07 0.28
De c 6.15 1.78 De c 1.83 0.71

Table 7 shows ARMS back testing results from Apr 2007 through Dec 20012.

22
 Appendix B

Date SP 500 EMA(30) EMA(12) EMA(30)- A.R.M.S Signals Monthly Monthly ARMS
VIX EMA(12) Rt P1 Rt P2 Monthly Rt
3/2/2007 18.61 11.92 12.00 -0.07 Initial signal*
3/9/2007 14.09 12.06 12.32 -0.26
3/16/2007 16.79 12.37 13.01 -0.64
3/23/2007 12.95 12.41 13.00 -0.59
3/30/2007 14.64 12.55 13.25 -0.70
4/6/2007 13.23 12.59 13.25 -0.65
4/13/2007 12.2 12.57 13.09 -0.52 First entry
4/20/2007 12.07 12.54 12.93 -0.39
4/27/2007 12.45 12.53 12.86 -0.32 1.91 1.91
5/4/2007 12.91 12.56 12.86 -0.31
5/11/2007 12.95 12.58 12.88 -0.30
5/18/2007 12.76 12.59 12.86 -0.27
5/25/2007 13.34 12.64 12.93 -0.29
6/1/2007 12.78 12.65 12.91 -0.26 -4.6 -4.6
6/8/2007 14.84 12.79 13.21 -0.42
6/15/2007 13.94 12.87 13.32 -0.45
6/22/2007 15.75 13.05 13.69 -0.64
6/29/2007 16.23 13.26 14.08 -0.83 -0.22 -0.22
7/6/2007 14.72 13.35 14.18 -0.83
7/13/2007 15.15 13.47 14.33 -0.86
7/20/2007 16.95 13.69 14.73 -1.04
7/27/2007 24.17 14.37 16.19 -1.82 3.72 3.72
8/3/2007 25.16 15.06 17.57 -2.50
8/10/2007 28.3 15.92 19.22 -3.30
8/17/2007 29.99 16.83 20.87 -4.05
8/24/2007 20.72 17.08 20.85 -3.77
8/31/2007 23.38 17.48 21.24 -3.76 5.75 5.75
9/7/2007 26.23 18.05 22.01 -3.96
9/14/2007 24.92 18.49 22.46 -3.96
9/21/2007 19 18.52 21.92 -3.40
9/28/2007 18 18.49 21.32 -2.83 -1.65 -1.65
10/5/2007 16.91 18.39 20.64 -2.25
10/12/2007 17.73 18.35 20.19 -1.85
10/19/2007 22.96 18.64 20.62 -1.98
10/26/2007 19.56 18.70 20.46 -1.75
11/2/2007 23.01 18.98 20.85 -1.87 3.46 3.46

23
 11/9/2007 28.5 19.59 22.03 -2.43
11/16/2007 25.49 19.98 22.56 -2.58
11/23/2007 25.61 20.34 23.03 -2.69
11/30/2007 22.87 20.50 23.00 -2.50 9.36 9.36
12/7/2007 20.85 20.52 22.67 -2.15
12/14/2007 23.27 20.70 22.76 -2.06
12/21/2007 18.47 20.56 22.10 -1.55
12/28/2007 20.74 20.57 21.89 -1.32 -4.68 -4.68
1/4/2008 23.94 20.79 22.21 -1.42
1/11/2008 23.68 20.97 22.44 -1.46
1/18/2008 27.18 21.37 23.17 -1.79
1/25/2008 29.08 21.87 24.08 -2.20
2/1/2008 24.02 22.01 24.07 -2.06 11.49 11.49
2/8/2008 28.01 22.40 24.67 -2.28
2/15/2008 25.02 22.57 24.73 -2.16
2/22/2008 24.06 22.66 24.62 -1.96
2/29/2008 26.54 22.91 24.92 -2.01 0.42 0.42
3/7/2008 27.49 23.21 25.31 -2.11
3/14/2008 31.16 23.72 26.21 -2.49
3/21/2008 26.62 23.91 26.28 -2.37
3/28/2008 25.71 24.02 26.19 -2.16 -2.81 -2.81
4/4/2008 22.45 23.92 25.61 -1.69
4/11/2008 23.46 23.89 25.28 -1.39
4/18/2008 20.13 23.65 24.49 -0.84
4/25/2008 19.59 23.39 23.74 -0.35
5/2/2008 18.18 23.05 22.88 0.17 B -6.28 -6.28
5/9/2008 19.41 22.82 22.35 0.47
5/16/2008 16.47 22.41 21.44 0.96
5/23/2008 19.55 22.22 21.15 1.07
5/30/2008 17.83 21.94 20.64 1.30 -5.14 -5.14
6/6/2008 23.56 22.04 21.09 0.95
6/13/2008 21.22 21.99 21.11 0.88
6/20/2008 22.97 22.05 21.40 0.66
6/27/2008 23.44 22.14 21.71 0.43 -61.9 -61.9
7/4/2008 24.8 22.32 22.19 0.13
7/11/2008 27.49 22.65 23.00 -0.35 S -26.35 -26.35
7/18/2008 24.05 22.74 23.16 -0.42
7/25/2008 22.91 22.75 23.12 -0.37
8/1/2008 22.57 22.74 23.04 -0.30 0.62 0.62
8/8/2008 20.66 22.60 22.67 -0.07
8/15/2008 19.58 22.41 22.20 0.21 B 6.97 6.97

24
 8/22/2008 18.81 22.18 21.68 0.50
8/29/2008 20.65 22.08 21.52 0.56 -10.69 -10.69
9/5/2008 23.06 22.14 21.76 0.39
9/12/2008 25.66 22.37 22.36 0.01
9/19/2008 32.07 22.99 23.85 -0.86 S -7.38 -7.38
9/26/2008 34.74 23.75 25.53 -1.77
10/3/2008 45.14 25.13 28.54 -3.41 -5.5 -5.5
10/10/2008 69.95 28.02 34.91 -6.89
10/17/2008 70.33 30.75 40.36 -9.61
10/24/2008 79.13 33.87 46.33 -12.45
10/31/2008 59.89 35.55 48.41 -12.86 -9.34 -9.34
11/7/2008 56.1 36.88 49.60 -12.72
11/14/2008 66.31 38.78 52.17 -13.39
11/21/2008 72.67 40.96 55.32 -14.36
11/28/2008 55.28 41.89 55.32 -13.43 14.89 14.89
12/5/2008 59.93 43.05 56.03 -12.97
12/12/2008 54.28 43.78 55.76 -11.98
12/19/2008 44.93 43.85 54.09 -10.24
12/26/2008 43.38 43.82 52.44 -8.62
1/2/2009 39.19 43.52 50.40 -6.88 11.08 11.08
1/9/2009 42.82 43.48 49.24 -5.76
1/16/2009 46.11 43.65 48.76 -5.11
1/23/2009 47.27 43.88 48.53 -4.65
1/30/2009 44.82 43.94 47.96 -4.02 1.85 1.85
2/6/2009 43.37 43.90 47.25 -3.35
2/13/2009 42.98 43.84 46.59 -2.75
2/20/2009 49.3 44.20 47.01 -2.81
2/27/2009 46.35 44.34 46.91 -2.57 -3.59 -3.59
3/6/2009 49.33 44.66 47.28 -2.62
3/13/2009 42.36 44.51 46.52 -2.02
3/20/2009 45.89 44.60 46.43 -1.83
3/27/2009 41.04 44.37 45.60 -1.23 5.01 5.01
4/3/2009 39.7 44.07 44.69 -0.62
4/10/2009 36.53 43.58 43.44 0.15 B -2.33 -2.33
4/17/2009 33.94 42.96 41.97 0.98
4/24/2009 36.82 42.56 41.18 1.38
5/1/2009 35.3 42.09 40.28 1.82 17.55 17.55
5/8/2009 32.05 41.45 39.01 2.44
5/15/2009 33.12 40.91 38.10 2.80
5/22/2009 32.63 40.38 37.26 3.11
5/29/2009 28.92 39.64 35.98 3.66 41.75 41.75

25
 6/5/2009 29.62 38.99 35.00 3.99
6/12/2009 28.15 38.29 33.95 4.34
6/19/2009 27.99 37.63 33.03 4.60
6/26/2009 25.93 36.87 31.94 4.93 -18.87 -18.87
7/3/2009 27.95 36.30 31.32 4.97
7/10/2009 29.02 35.83 30.97 4.86
7/17/2009 24.34 35.09 29.95 5.14
7/24/2009 23.09 34.31 28.89 5.42
7/31/2009 25.92 33.77 28.44 5.33 72.21 72.21
8/7/2009 24.76 33.19 27.87 5.32
8/14/2009 24.27 32.61 27.32 5.30
8/21/2009 25.01 32.12 26.96 5.16
8/28/2009 24.76 31.65 26.62 5.02 58.22 58.22
9/4/2009 25.26 31.24 26.41 4.82
9/11/2009 24.15 30.78 26.07 4.71
9/18/2009 23.92 30.34 25.74 4.60
9/25/2009 25.61 30.03 25.72 4.32
10/2/2009 28.68 29.94 26.17 3.77 14.56 14.56
10/9/2009 23.12 29.50 25.70 3.80
10/16/2009 21.43 28.98 25.05 3.94
10/23/2009 22.27 28.55 24.62 3.93
10/30/2009 30.69 28.69 25.55 3.14 0.27 0.27
11/6/2009 24.19 28.40 25.34 3.05
11/13/2009 23.36 28.07 25.04 3.03
11/20/2009 22.19 27.69 24.60 3.09
11/27/2009 24.74 27.50 24.62 2.88 26.11 26.11
12/4/2009 21.25 27.10 24.10 3.00
12/11/2009 21.59 26.74 23.72 3.03
12/18/2009 21.68 26.42 23.40 3.01
12/25/2009 19.47 25.97 22.80 3.17
1/1/2010 21.68 25.69 22.63 3.07 43.04 43.04
1/8/2010 18.13 25.20 21.93 3.27
1/15/2010 17.91 24.73 21.32 3.42
1/22/2010 27.31 24.90 22.24 2.66
1/29/2010 24.62 24.88 22.60 2.28 -39.41 -39.41
2/5/2010 26.11 24.96 23.14 1.82
2/12/2010 22.73 24.82 23.08 1.74
2/19/2010 20.02 24.51 22.61 1.90
2/26/2010 19.5 24.18 22.13 2.05 23.09 23.09
3/5/2010 17.42 23.75 21.41 2.34
3/12/2010 17.58 23.35 20.82 2.53

26
 3/19/2010 16.97 22.94 20.23 2.71
3/26/2010 17.77 22.61 19.85 2.76
4/2/2010 17.47 22.27 19.48 2.79 59.75 59.75
4/9/2010 16.14 21.88 18.97 2.91
4/16/2010 18.36 21.65 18.87 2.78
4/23/2010 16.62 21.33 18.53 2.80
4/30/2010 22.05 21.37 19.07 2.30 20 20
5/7/2010 40.95 22.64 22.44 0.20
5/14/2010 31.24 23.19 23.79 -0.60 S -26.45 -26.45
5/21/2010 40.1 24.28 26.30 -2.02
5/28/2010 32.07 24.78 27.19 -2.40 2.33 2.33
6/4/2010 35.48 25.47 28.46 -2.99
6/11/2010 28.79 25.69 28.51 -2.82
6/18/2010 23.95 25.58 27.81 -2.23
6/25/2010 28.53 25.77 27.92 -2.15
7/2/2010 30.12 26.05 28.26 -2.21 1.15 1.15
7/9/2010 24.98 25.98 27.76 -1.78
7/16/2010 26.25 26.00 27.52 -1.53
7/23/2010 23.47 25.83 26.90 -1.07
7/30/2010 23.5 25.68 26.38 -0.69 0.62 0.62
8/6/2010 21.74 25.43 25.66 -0.24
8/13/2010 26.24 25.48 25.75 -0.27
8/20/2010 25.49 25.48 25.71 -0.23
8/27/2010 24.45 25.41 25.52 -0.10 4.79 4.79
9/3/2010 21.31 25.15 24.87 0.28 B -2.45 -2.45
9/10/2010 21.99 24.95 24.43 0.52
9/17/2010 22.01 24.76 24.06 0.70
9/24/2010 21.71 24.56 23.69 0.87
10/1/2010 22.5 24.43 23.51 0.92 20.38 20.38
10/8/2010 20.71 24.19 23.08 1.11
10/15/2010 19.03 23.85 22.46 1.40
10/22/2010 18.78 23.53 21.89 1.64
10/29/2010 21.2 23.38 21.78 1.59 22.76 22.76
11/5/2010 18.26 23.05 21.24 1.80
11/12/2010 20.61 22.89 21.15 1.74
11/19/2010 18.04 22.58 20.67 1.91
11/26/2010 22.22 22.55 20.91 1.65
12/3/2010 18.01 22.26 20.46 1.80 4.76 4.76
12/10/2010 17.61 21.96 20.02 1.94
12/17/2010 16.11 21.58 19.42 2.16
12/24/2010 16.47 21.25 18.97 2.29

27
12/31/2010 17.75 21.03 18.78 2.25 11.66 11.66
1/7/2011 17.14 20.78 18.53 2.25
1/14/2011 15.46 20.43 18.06 2.38
1/21/2011 18.47 20.31 18.12 2.19
1/28/2011 20.04 20.29 18.41 1.88 8.7 8.7
2/4/2011 15.93 20.01 18.03 1.98
2/11/2011 15.69 19.73 17.67 2.06
2/18/2011 16.43 19.52 17.48 2.04
2/25/2011 19.22 19.50 17.75 1.75 18.98 18.98
3/4/2011 19.06 19.47 17.95 1.52
3/11/2011 20.08 19.51 18.28 1.23
3/18/2011 24.44 19.83 19.23 0.60
3/25/2011 17.91 19.70 19.02 0.68
4/1/2011 17.4 19.55 18.77 0.78 10 10
4/8/2011 17.87 19.45 18.63 0.81
4/15/2011 15.32 19.18 18.12 1.06
4/22/2011 14.69 18.89 17.60 1.29
4/29/2011 14.75 18.62 17.16 1.46 27.54 27.54
5/6/2011 18.4 18.61 17.35 1.26
5/13/2011 17.07 18.51 17.31 1.20
5/20/2011 17.43 18.44 17.33 1.11
5/27/2011 15.98 18.28 17.12 1.16 -12.11 -12.11
6/3/2011 17.95 18.26 17.25 1.01
6/10/2011 18.86 18.30 17.49 0.80
6/17/2011 21.85 18.53 18.16 0.36
6/24/2011 21.1 18.69 18.62 0.08
7/1/2011 15.87 18.51 18.19 0.32 -2.94 -2.94
7/8/2011 15.95 18.35 17.85 0.50
7/15/2011 19.53 18.42 18.11 0.32
7/22/2011 17.52 18.36 18.02 0.35
7/29/2011 25.25 18.81 19.13 -0.32 S -5.66 -5.66
8/5/2011 32 19.66 21.11 -1.45
8/12/2011 36.36 20.74 23.46 -2.72
8/19/2011 43.05 22.18 26.47 -4.29
8/26/2011 35.59 23.04 27.87 -4.83
9/2/2011 33.92 23.74 28.80 -5.06 11.57 11.57
9/9/2011 38.52 24.70 30.30 -5.60
9/16/2011 30.98 25.10 30.40 -5.30
9/23/2011 41.25 26.14 32.07 -5.93
9/30/2011 42.96 27.23 33.75 -6.52 3.75 3.75
10/7/2011 36.2 27.81 34.12 -6.32

28
10/14/2011 28.24 27.84 33.22 -5.38
10/21/2011 31.32 28.06 32.93 -4.87
10/28/2011 24.53 27.83 31.64 -3.80 -7.8 -7.8
11/4/2011 30.16 27.98 31.41 -3.43
11/11/2011 30.04 28.12 31.20 -3.08
11/18/2011 32 28.37 31.32 -2.95
11/25/2011 34.47 28.76 31.81 -3.05
12/2/2011 27.52 28.68 31.15 -2.47 7.2 7.2
12/9/2011 26.38 28.53 30.41 -1.88
12/16/2011 24.29 28.26 29.47 -1.21
12/23/2011 20.73 27.77 28.13 -0.35
12/30/2011 23.4 27.49 27.40 0.09 B 4.43 4.43
1/6/2012 20.63 27.05 26.36 0.69
1/13/2012 20.91 26.65 25.52 1.13
1/20/2012 18.28 26.11 24.41 1.71
1/27/2012 18.53 25.62 23.50 2.12 41.98 41.98
2/3/2012 17.1 25.07 22.52 2.56
2/10/2012 20.79 24.80 22.25 2.55
2/17/2012 17.78 24.34 21.56 2.78
2/24/2012 17.31 23.89 20.91 2.98
3/2/2012 17.29 23.46 20.35 3.11 13.74 13.74
3/9/2012 17.11 23.05 19.85 3.20
3/16/2012 14.47 22.50 19.03 3.48
3/23/2012 14.82 22.00 18.38 3.63
3/30/2012 15.5 21.59 17.94 3.65 6.29 6.29
4/6/2012 16.7 21.27 17.75 3.52
4/13/2012 19.55 21.16 18.02 3.14
4/20/2012 17.44 20.92 17.93 2.99
4/27/2012 16.32 20.62 17.69 2.94 4.91 4.91
5/4/2012 19.16 20.53 17.91 2.62
5/11/2012 19.89 20.49 18.22 2.27
5/18/2012 25.1 20.78 19.28 1.51
5/25/2012 21.76 20.85 19.66 1.19
6/1/2012 26.66 21.22 20.73 0.49 -56.03 -56.03
6/8/2012 21.23 21.22 20.81 0.41
6/15/2012 21.11 21.22 20.86 0.36
6/22/2012 18.11 21.02 20.43 0.58
6/29/2012 17.07 20.76 19.92 0.84 36.8 36.8
7/6/2012 17.1 20.52 19.48 1.04
7/13/2012 16.73 20.28 19.06 1.22
7/20/2012 16.27 20.02 18.63 1.39

29
 7/27/2012 16.7 19.81 18.33 1.47 12.44 12.44
8/3/2012 15.64 19.54 17.92 1.62
8/10/2012 14.74 19.23 17.43 1.80
8/17/2012 13.45 18.86 16.82 2.04
8/24/2012 15.18 18.62 16.57 2.05
8/31/2012 17.47 18.54 16.70 1.84 5.95 5.95
9/7/2012 14.38 18.28 16.35 1.93
9/14/2012 14.51 18.03 16.06 1.97
9/21/2012 13.98 17.77 15.74 2.03
9/28/2012 15.73 17.64 15.74 1.90 2.69 2.69
10/5/2012 14.33 17.43 15.52 1.90
10/12/2012 16.14 17.34 15.62 1.72
10/19/2012 17.05 17.32 15.84 1.48
10/26/2012 17.8 17.35 16.14 1.21
11/2/2012 17.59 17.37 16.36 1.01 -0.68 -0.68
11/9/2012 18.61 17.45 16.71 0.74
11/16/2012 16.41 17.38 16.66 0.72
11/23/2012 15.14 17.24 16.43 0.81
11/30/2012 15.87 17.15 16.34 0.81 0.51 0.51
12/7/2012 15.9 17.07 16.27 0.79
12/14/2012 17 17.06 16.39 0.68
12/21/2012 17.84 17.11 16.61 0.50
12/28/2012 22.72 17.48 17.55 -0.07 S 12.84 12.84

Table 8 shows back testing results.

Initial signal*: the initial sell signal was on March 2nd , 2007 but the beginning of the back testing

period was on April 13,2007.

30
 Glossary

Steps to calculate EMA (30)) and EMA (12):

1- Calculating the weighting multiplier: k= 2/n+1, n=30, 12 weeks

2- Derive the initial “EMA1 (30) and EMA1 (12)” which can be simple moving average

of previous 30 weeks VIX and 12 weeks VIX values respectively.

n
SMA (12) = ∑ VIXi/n ; n=12
i=1
n
SMA (30) = ∑ VIXi/n ; n=30
i=1

After the first EMA1 (30) and EMA1 (12) calculation then:

3- Calculate the exponential moving rolling average of 30 and 12 VIX weekly closing

values respectively EMA (30) and EMA (12).

The formula is:

EMAi+1(30) = EMAi (30)*k+EMAi-1 (30)*(1-k), i>=13 or I>=31

Where the mathematical terms:

k= Multiplier

SMA: Simple Moving Average of the initial period.

EMA: Exponential Moving Average. EMA is a moving average that is weighted more on

recent volatility.

31