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Traffic Flow and Safety Analysis

This document discusses traffic characteristics and factors that affect traffic demand. It covers topics like measuring traffic flow, how flow relates to volume and density, and factors that can create bottlenecks. Traffic flow is measured by counting vehicles and factors like weather, disabled vehicles, and traffic signals can interfere with flow and reduce speeds. The capacity of roads and intersections needs to be consistent to avoid congestion from bottlenecks.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
14 views24 pages

Traffic Flow and Safety Analysis

This document discusses traffic characteristics and factors that affect traffic demand. It covers topics like measuring traffic flow, how flow relates to volume and density, and factors that can create bottlenecks. Traffic flow is measured by counting vehicles and factors like weather, disabled vehicles, and traffic signals can interfere with flow and reduce speeds. The capacity of roads and intersections needs to be consistent to avoid congestion from bottlenecks.

Uploaded by

masroor
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

CHAPTER … 2

TRAFFIC
CHARACTERISTICS

"Books are the quietest and most constant of friends;


they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors,
and the most patient of teachers."

…Charles W. Eliot (1834-1926)

15
2.1 General Considerations

One of the most important characteristics of a stream of traffic is its flow, i.e. the
number of vehicles which pass a fixed point in unit time. This is commonly referred
to as "volume". Its direct measurement by counting vehicles is therefore fundamental
to any systematic approach to road problems. Traffic censuses are needed for many
purposes. For instance, they are required for deciding what widths and junction
designs are appropriate; what expenditure on a road is justified; and they are
necessary in before-and-after studies of the effect of changes on accidents or delays.
Flows are usually measured by hand or by automatic counters at selected points on a
road network.

It is no more rational to design a highway without traffic information than it is to


design a bridge without knowledge of the weights and numbers of vehicles it is
intended to support. Traffic information serves to establish the loads for geometric
highway design. It is easy to collect too much data, or too little, and the design of an
efficient program of counting involves the choice of the appropriate technique and its
use in the most economical manner. These points in turn depend on the information
required in the work and the desire for accuracy in the results. Particular attention is
paid to the various methods of sampling, since it is very often too expensive to carry
out continuous counts at all the points of interest in a project. In Great Britain, for the
very first time, in 1956, a continuous census of traffic was carried out at 50 points. It
covered all roads except motorways and unclassified roads. The results were used to
give information on the hourly, daily, weekly, seasonal and long-term variations in the
amount of travel. The continuing data from such permanent censuses are of great
value for studying problems that arise in designing, building, maintaining, and using
the public highways. As a result this will improve the road as a channel for traffic, to
reduce the overall costs of construction and maintenance and to promote safety and
comfort in travel. The work is organized in two divisions: Materials, and
Constructions, and Traffic and Safety. There is also a Bridges Section.

The principal subjects of study in the materials and construction head are: (a) soils,
(b) earth works, (c) aggregate, (d) pavement design, (e) concrete, (f) bituminous
materials, (g) road plant and machinery and (h) surface-water drainage. Traffic and
safety researches include: (a) road layout and lighting, (b) surface characteristics, (c)
traffic flow control, (d) vehicle characteristics, (e) road user characteristics, (f)
accident statistics.

As far as road safety is concerned, it is a subject of scientific investigation. The


growth of road traffic and the number of injuries and deaths arising there from have
made it unlikely that the problems of road safety can be solved at any reasonable cost
except by serious and continuous study. Most aspects of the field are touched on:
subjects range from the national statistics of accidents to detailed investigations of
what actually caused that the injuries in a given crash; from the physiological or
psychological characteristics of road users to the appropriate design of vehicles, roads
or propaganda: from the inspection of vehicles to the nature of the adhesion between
tyre and road on which so much safety of driving depends.

As a matter of fact, road safety is a subject on which most people have opinions: this

16
work endeavors to present the ascertained facts. As a major limited survey of the field
it should be of interest to all, who are concerned with these problems as engineers,
administrators police or simply as citizens.

In fact, traffic crashes are generally the result of a combination of circumstances.


Seldom is such an occurrence the product of a single identifiable factor. Without
question, the human element is the single most important factor in the cause of traffic
crashes. Basically such accidents are caused by driver failure, careless, or violation of
man-made laws or forces of nature. Estimates from several, studies indicate that the
human element is responsible for 80 to 85 percent of all traffic crashes. Traffic
violations, lack of driving courtesy, driving while intoxicated (alcohol, drugs, etc.),
are the results of human actions. Moreover, the fact that people commit unsafe acts
while performing the driving task suggests that they lack proper knowledge, attitudes,
or skills to operate a motor vehicle safely. A prudent driver conducts himself in such a
manner that there is small margin for error on his part while he is behind the wheel of
an automobile.

Figure 1. Highway Crash Event

Figure 1 depicts a graphical picture of a highway crash event. Obviously, when a


driver's performance drops down what the system of travel demands, it results in a
crash. Death rates for night driving are considerably higher than those for day. In
terms of miles of travel the night time death rates are twice those of daytime rates.
The complexity of the night-driving task is caused by reduced visibility. Motorists
should take this into consideration when driving after dark. This may be caused by
fatigue, drowsiness or intoxication.

2.2 Traffic-Flow Relationship

Traffic flow on roadways is measured in terms of numbers of vehicles per hour, of


average speed in miles or km per hour, and of traffic density in vehicles per mile.
These three variables, volumes, speeds, and density, are all interrelated and are used
to describe the predictable traffic-flow relationships.

17
Figure 2. Shows Average speeds related to vehicle densities

Density, the number of vehicles per length of roadway, increase as vehicles crowd
closer and closer together. As Figure 2 shows, this increased crowding takes place
when speed decreases and drivers can comfortably follow closer behind other
vehicles. The solid is an indication of what densities are possible for a given speed.
As this solid line changes into the dashed line, flow approaches a condition where
there is very little forward movement.

Traffic volumes also vary with density from points of zero flow to a maximum flow
at a certain density. The points of zero to a maximum flow at a certain density. The
points of zero flow represent either no vehicle at all or so many vehicles on the
roadway that flow has jammed to a stop. The maximum flow is at a peak of the
hyperbolic-shaped curve shown in figure 3. Again, the dashed line depicts drop in
flow as the capacity of the roadway is exceeded and the corresponding rise in density
as the vehicles are jammed together.

Figure 3. Traffic volumes related to vehicle densities

18
Interferences to travel flow causes speeds to be reduced, vehicles to travel closer
together, and density to increase interference may be caused by weather conditions,
cross traffic, a disabled vehicle, or other marginal conditions. As one or more of these
conditions causes more interference, the volume within certain limits can still be
maintained but with further reduction in speed, closer vehicle spacing, and greater
density. When interference becomes so great that despite closer vehicle spacing and
greater density the average speed drops below that necessary to maintain stable flow,
there is a rapid decrease in speed and traffic flow, and severe congestion sets in.

When traffic on a highway encounters interference that limits are reduces the
roadway capacity in a single area, the result is a bottle neck. If the flow entering this
bottleneck does not exceed its capacity, flow remains stable and no problems arise.
However, when the up-stream section carries more vehicles than the bottleneck can
accommodate, the familiar breakdown of traffic results with speeds reduced to
crawling and a queuing of vehicles accumulating until incoming flow again falls
below the outflow capacity. To avoid bottleneck situations, care must be taken to
design a roadway with consistent volume-carrying capacity. A level-of-service
concept discussed in the next section is a valuable aid in obtaining this consistency.

An intersection is often an unavoidable bottleneck. The capacity on the roadway


section approaching the intersection usually exceeds the intersection capacity. This
reduction becomes acute when the intersection is controlled by stop signs or traffic
signals. At a traffic signal, vehicles arriving during the red phase encounter a zero-
capacity bottleneck. These vehicles form a queue until the green phase when the
restraint is removed and the queue is discharged. If the incoming volume is too high,
not all the vehicles in the queue can be discharged during the green phase, and there
is a continuing build up of the queue.

Arrivals at the intersection are somewhat predictable in urban areas where the
approaching vehicles are platoon by upstream signals. In sub-urban or rural locations,
vehicle arrivals are often random. This randomness must be recognized in design of
adequate cycle times, turn-lane storage lengths, and approach capacity.

At all bottlenecks where the traffic must slow down or stop, each vehicle and its
occupants suffer a certain delay. Delay results in time loss, (hence monetary loss) to
the vehicle's occupants, increased fuel consumption, and additional air pollution.

2.3 Factors Affecting Traffic Demand

Demand for the transport of people or freight is the result of many underlying forces.
For passenger travel, the simplest forces typically the need to move between
residence and place of work or education, and the need to shop for food or other
necessities. In more complex societies people travel for recreational reasons, and to
attend to personal business needs, or as part of their job. Freight is moved within the
industrial process: from mine to factory, or from field to processing plant, to shops or
warehouses; to final consumers. Thus anything which affects the numbers of
locations of houses, jobs, shops, factories or storage facilities immediately affects
traffic demand.

19
The second major factor affecting traffic volumes is the overall level of affluence. In
poor areas, most food may be produced locally and there in is low consumption of
other goods; most trips are made on foot, and there is little demand for motorized
transport. With development, travel distances increase and some form of motorized
transportation is needed for more and more journeys. This usually takes the form of
bus or rail, which are efficient users of infrastructure.

The next stage occurs as more and more people buy cars and expects to be able to use
them. As the same time the volumes of goods consumed increases, as does the
distance that goods are transported. Cars require much more road space than buses to
move a given number of people, often by a factor of 10 or more. The outcome of
these changes is that a vastly increased quantity of infrastructure is needed, especially
in cities, where there are high population and employment densities.

The factors discussed above are generally grouped as the “socio-economic” and
“land-use” characteristics of an area. An understanding of these characteristics as they
exit now, and as they are likely to change in the future, is vital for traffic forecasting.

Thus, an early part of most investigations is the collection of data concerning the
socio-economic characteristics of the area. The current values of parameters are
usually taken from an existing census, but may have to be supplemented by
government planning bodies, although these forecasts may need enhancement and
must be used with care.

2.4 Data Sources and Collection

The first stage of traffic demand forecasting is an examination of existing, conditions.


Great attention must be paid to this phase, since errors in base data must, of necessity,
follow through into forecasts.

Before any data collection is carried out, the first step should be to examine historical
information. This is not always possible, when available can point to the most
productive and cost-effective data gathering methods.

The most important factor to be gained from historical information is the probable
variation in traffic flows. These variations can take place over several different time
scales. In rural areas, these may be immense seasonal traffic variations associated
with crop harvesting times, various types of festivals, etc., but only limited variations
within any one day; in an urban situation, daily traffic may be almost constant
throughout the year, but with very high morning and evening peaks.

Many data collection methods are available, and experience can to those likely to be
most fruitful. The aim of the forecasting process should always be kept in mind, and
the type and quality of data collection should be related to the desired results. The
case of upgrading an existing facility, say by widening or paving a road or by
improving bus frequency, is the simplest case to deal with,. This is because it is easier
to target data collection as much of the new traffic already uses the existing facility.
The case of a new facility in an existing corridor is intermediate in nature, and the
case of a totally new facility offers the greatest challenge.

20
Traffic data methods vary greatly in the amount of information yielded and the cost of
collecting the information, usually in inverse proportion to each other. Some of the
more common survey methods are indicated below:

 Mechanical counts are conducted by laying a rubber tube across the roadway
and recording the number of axles crossing that tube in any time period by means
of a roadside pneumatic device. These data are the least costly to collect, but also
the least informative. The only result is the number of axles passing a point,
which may be converted to axles using an assumed or observed factor, but
nothing is known about origins, destinations or reasons for travel. Care must be
taken in maintenance of the device, as equipment malfunction and vandalism are
frequent problems.

 Manual counts consist of a person situated by the roadside, counting vehicles


as the pass. They have the advantages that vehicles can be counted directly,
instead of being inferred from axle counts; Buses and Lorries can be identified;
and other information can often be gathered, such as vehicle occupancy or
junction turning movements. Manual counts are more reliable than mechanical
counts, provided that staff are adequately trained and supervised.

 Trip interception interviews are carried out while a trip is taking place,
typically at the roadside for vehicle driver interviews or at boarding/alighting
points for public transport passengers. These are the most reliable form of survey,
since it is known that the vehicle or person was at the interview site at a particular
time, and this allows substantial checking. Items that are usually are trip origin
and destination, trip purpose, vehicle type and occupancy.

An alternative approach is to hand prepaid postcards to drivers, for completion and


return by post. This approach has the disadvantage of biasing the sample interviews
since the proportion of people who return them usually is low, and is unlikely to be
randomly distributed across all road users.

 Non-interception interviews involve interviewing a sample of travelers in an


area, and asking questions about their travel during a particular time period. These
surveys are expensive to carry out since time is spent interviewing people who did
not travel in the rear of interest, and are particularly pron to bias and misreporting
since they are usually investigating travel some time after the event. For this
reason, an extensive series of checks should be made on reporting trips. Such
interviews are best suited to comprehensive study of an area rather than traffic
forecasting for a single improvement. Their chief advantage is that they enable
trip information, to be closely related to socio-economic information, which may
be sampled in the same procedure. These relationships are very important in more
complex cases, where extensive transport modeling is required.

 Additional surveys are usually needed to describe the current transport


system, and typically include a road inventory (including length, width, number
of lanes, geometrics and traffic control) and travel speeds and journey times. For a
rail, the inventory could be of rolling stock, or length and separation of passing

21
places on a single-track network.

2.5 Use of Models

Traffic is often forecast using a model. A model consists of a set of mathematically


expressed relationships which rive traffic as a function of a series of dependent
variables. Models very greatly in complexity, from almost trivial to computer
programs require days to run.

At simplest, a model may consist of a simple linear regression of traffic against time.
This implicitly says that traffic is a function of various unknown variables which have
been changing with times; probably population growth and increase in real income.
Under these circumstances, with no major changes in the transport system, a roughly
constant historical traffic growth rate may be found and projected into the future. This
type of model is suitable for short-term projections, provided no major socio-
economic or transport system changes are expected.

Figure 4. Model Flow Chart

A more sophisticated model structure takes into account socio-economic and


variables. Such a model flow chart is illustrated in Figure 4. One of the chief
simplifications or concepts used in modeling is the traffic or analysis zone. This is a
geographical area for which all socio-economic and planning data are aggregated, and
for which forecasts are made. All activity within a zone is assumed to take place at

22
one point within the zone.

As a matter of fact, the first stage of many models is to forecast the zonal trip ends,
i.e. the number of trips that start or finish within each zone. These may be person trips
or freight tonnages produced in the zone. Person trips are usually forecast using
category analysis or regression models using population, housing units, employment,
school places income as explanatory variables. Freight production/consumption
typically are forecast using immediate and final demand models. The output of the
trip end models is the number of trips starting and ending in each zone by type and
often by purpose of travel.

 Network models describe the transport system under study. For a road system,
they describe the position, size and type of road, and also the average running
speeds for various vehicle types and time periods. For rail and bus networks, it is
also necessary to specify routes and services. Output from the network models are
zonal separations, measured in terms of time, distance and cost required for travel
from one zone to another, and as set of paths defining the route from each zone to
every other zone.

 Distribution models link the forecast trip ends into complete trips. This is most
commonly done using a gravity model, which links trips according to the product
of origins and destinations in each zone pair, and a probability function related to
cost of travel between zones.

 Modal choice models are used to decide the mode of travel that any trip may use.
A person may have the choice of being a car driver, a car passenger, bus passenger
or train passenger for a particular trip. The choice is usually made on the basis of
comparative times and costs for the competing modes, together with a set of
probability curves. The result of these models is a set of zone-to-zone trips by
mode and by time period.

 Assignment models take the trips by mode and place them into the network
according to the paths produced in the network model. The result is a set of
forecast volumes on every roadway and bus route. In the analysis, all aspects of
transport system are examined including traffic speeds resulting from the forecast
loading, degrees of congestion, equipment requirements and public transport
patronage. These parameters may be used to evaluate the transport system in
economic, financial and operational terms.

2.6 Reliability of Traffic Forecasts

Whichever method of forecasting is used, the results are liable to contain errors. The
forecast cannot be better than the survey data upon which they are based, or the socio-
economic assumptions. However, much care has been taken, the possibility of error
exits and the most probable future may not be the real one. In any traffic forecasting
study, therefore, the results of variations should be examined in detail. The results and
conclusions should be rendered as robust as possible by careful investigation of
alternatives.

23
2.7 Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

Before making a traffic count it is also necessary to decide whether one is interested
in average flow, speak flow or some variant of these. As a general measure of road
usage, the average daily flow or traffic (ADT) is required. It is defined as the total
volume during given time period (in whole days), greater than 01 day and less than
01 year, divided by the number of days in that time period. The current ADT volume
for a highway can be determined readily where continuous traffic counts are
available. However, where only periodic counts are taken, ADT volume can also be
established by correcting the results according to such factors as the season, month, or
day of week or annual total, is recommended. For capacity and design studies,
however, some measure of peak flow may be required. It would be uneconomical to
design to carry comfortably the greatest amount of traffic that ever uses it, and it is
often suggested, especially in the U.S.A., that a road should be designed for the 30 th
highest hourly flow per year. This is difficult to observe directly. In the U.S.A. factors
have been derived which enable it to be estimated from average daily flow, but the
experts of U.K. are uncertain whether these factors could be used in their country.

In Great Britain, when the term peak flow is used it usually refers to the highest
hourly total recorded during a7-day count made in the month of August. August in
G.B. is usually very near the summer peak, this definition should give a figure fairly
close to the flow during the busiest hour of the year. From this point of view, the
definition is a reasonable one. However, it is not wholly satisfactory to define peak
flow as the flow in one particular hour, since the weather and the variable influences
may make the figure obtained unrepresentative of peak conditions. It is, therefore,
suggested that a slightly modified definition should be used. If the average flow for
each hour of the week were calculated over all possible consecutive 13-wwek
periods, then the peak-hourly flow is defined as the highest average flow so obtained.
For example, the peak-hourly flow might be the average of 13 flows between 8.00
p.m. and 9.00 p.m. on Sundays in June, July and August, if these were the busiest
times and busiest months.

The estimation of peak-hourly flow so defined presents a very easy approach. The
first step involved is to decide which three months carry the highest average hourly
flow, and which hour will be concerned. This is done on the basis of experience. If it
is not possible as such, some preliminary counts may be required. Counts should then
be carried out for a sufficient number of the 13 peak hours.

For a typical fairly busy road, the accuracy category of this method depends on the
number of the 13 hours for which counts are made as follows:
Number of Accuracy Category
Counts If on weekday If at week-end
1 C C
2 or 3 B C
4 to 6 A B
7 or more A A

24
Thus, provided that the time, day and season of the peak hour are known, the
determination of the peak-hourly flow requires only a small amount of counting. If
August is known to lie in the peak three months, then the highest hourly flow
recorded in a one-week August count will, according to the above table, give an
estimate of peak-hourly flow with accuracy category C. Nevertheless, past counts
provide some guidance on when the peak hour is likely to occur. As per the British
experience the peak-hourly flow varies from 170 percent to 280 percent of the
average hourly flow.

Traffic estimates used for the design of urban streets and the highway are usually
expressed as ADT volumes derived from the urban transportation planning process.

From the analysis of the traffic census, a traffic engineer can also analyze as:

 Trends from year to year


 Trends from month to month
 Seasonal variation
 Hourly patterns
 Day to Day variation
 Effects of weather on the flow
 Vehicle-mileage on the facility
 Distribution of traffic over the road system
 Forecasts of future number of vehicles
 Estimates of saturation level
 Composition of traffic (manual counts)

2.8 Traffic Composition

Vehicle factors: They may be subdivided into (a) dimensional aspects: width, height,
length, weight, etc., and (b) mechanical performance aspects: breaking power, turning
radius, etc. Dimensional aspects directly affect the roadway design, the quality of
traffic movement, and both vehicle and roadway cost. Pavement thickness, lane
width, terminal layout, sight distance, and vertical clearance are just a few of design
features affected by the dimensional characteristics of vehicles. Just as these
dimensional factors affect the facility design and cost, they also influence the vehicle
operating costs because of the fashion in which certain resistance (air, rolling, inertia,
etc.) are related to vehicle weight and design (e.g., frontal areas).

Mechanical features are important in two major respects: (1) setting limits for
performance capabilities, either upper or lower bounds; and (2) determining vehicle
weight and equipment requirements, and thus setting vehicle capital-cost and fuel-
consumption limits. Judged in conjunction with roadway and environmental
circumstances, the vehicle mechanical-performance plan is responsible for
establishing maximum acceleration and deceleration rates, speeds, consumption rates,
and so forth. As implied above, though, the mechanical characteristics themselves do
not necessarily control the limits because of the interdependence with the roadway
and environment. As but one example, the deceleration capabilities not only are
dependent on the vehicle breaking system and devices capabilities, but are also
dependent of pavement surface, speed of vehicle, weather condition, and gradient.

25
The vehicles on our roads could be classified as under:

o Motor vehicles

 Motorcycles (i/c three-wheels)


 Scooters (motorcycle with smaller wheels)
 Cars and taxis (i/c tractor, trolley, etc.)
 Buses and coaches
 Light vans (all commercial or private)
 Other vehicles (i/c all heavy commercial vehicles, container, trucks, etc)

o Slow moving vehicles

 Pedal cycles (i/c four-wheel hand drawn commercial carts)


 Animal drawn vehicles (i/c passenger, goods, etc.).

2.9 Future Projection of Traffic Demands

A highway should be designed to accommodate the traffic that might occur within the
life of the facility under due maintenance. It seems difficult to actually define the life
of a highway. This is because some of the major segments may have different lengths
of physical life due to obsolescence, unexpected radical changes in land use resulting
changes in traffic volumes, patterns, and load. Right-of-way and grading might be
considered to have a physical life expectancy of 100 years, minor drainage structures
and base courses 50 years, bridges 25 to 100 years, surfacing 10 to 30 years, all
assuming adequate maintenance and no allowance for obsolescence. Bridge life may
vary depending on the number of heavy, repetitious loads. Surfacing life varies
widely, depending largely on initial expenditure and the repetition of heavy axle
loads.

It is a moot question whether design should be based on life expectancy. The decision
is greatly influenced by economics. Many highway engineers believe the maximum
period is in the range of 15 to 24 years. A period of 20 years is widely used as a basis
for design. Estimating traffic beyond this period on a specific facility usually is not
justified because of probable changes in the general regional economy, population,
and land development along the highway, which cannot be accurately predicted.

By and large even estimating traffic for a 20-year design period may not be
appropriate for many reconstruction or rehabilitation projects. The projects may be
developed on the basis of a shorter design period (5 to 10 years) because of
uncertainties of predicting traffic as well as funding constraints.

2.10 Growth of Auto Sector

A count of different type of motor vehicles on the roads of Pakistan from the year
1991-'92 to 2007-'08, is shown in Table 1. The figures lately available (2009-'10) for
motor bikes show 1.3m bikes are on roads in the country. This growth is mainly

26
contributed by sale of motorcycles (Chinese and Japanese), which excelled with 1.3
million units compared to 850,000 in the previous fiscal.

The total sale of farm tractors (Fiat and Ferguson) stood at 71,512 units, while truck
sales rose to 3,620 units from 3,136 units. Sales of jeeps and pick-ups also went up to
1,201 and 16,496 units, respectively, compared to 1,066 and 15,400 units.

According to figures of Pakistan Automotive Manufacturer Association (Pama), a


slight decline was recorded in bus sales to 657 units in the year under review
compared to 686 units earlier.

Of the motorcycle sales, makes of Honda motorcycles has a big share as compared to
349,892 units, while sales of Yamaha bikes also rose to 120,953 units from 6,484. The
sale of Suzuki bikes increase to 17,437 units from 15,326.

Ravi bike sold 23,304 units against 18,457, while Hero bikes sold 36,166 units
against 19,818 earlier.

According to Engineering Development Board, the bike sales had already reached 1.2
million units up to May 2010, while figures for the full year were being completed.
However, Association of Pakistan Motorcycle Assemblers claimed bike sale figures
of 2008-09 were 850,000 units.

As a matter of fact, due to higher public transport charges after increase in fares and
bikes could be purchased on installments bases. Many people decided to switch over
to the two wheelers.

Not less that 25,000 units of tractors were sold under various government schemes to
help the formers. Besides, the formers also got good support price from various crops,
especially in wheat and cotton during the period under consideration.

Nevertheless, car sales also jumped by 50 percent in 2009-'10. despite higher prices,
late delivery and premium, the rising demand for cars in the country pushed up sales
by 49.6 percent in July-June2009-'10 as compared to last fiscal year. In a country
where poverty level is said to be risings, the sales of costly big cars, (1,300 cc and
above have surpassed the sales of small cars (800-1,000 cc),resulting in big cars
business jumping by 57.42 percent to 61,008 units as compared to 38,755 units.

The sale 1,000 cc cars are also higher than 800 cc and below 1,000 cc units. A total of
46 percent increase was registered in sale of 1,000 cc units to 23,696 units as
compared to 16,152 units, while sale of 800 cc and below 1,000 cc stood at 39,253
units as compared to 27,937 units.

The above discussion gives up-to-date scenario of most common auto vehicle
population on the roads in the country.

27
Table 1. Shows Province-Wise Breakup of National Highways

Balochistan
Punjab

[Link]
Sindh

Total
KPK

AJK
Route Detail

N-5 Karachi-Thatta-Hyderabad-Moro-Multan-Sahiwal-
Lahore-Jhelum-Rawalpindi-PeshawarTorkham 1021 671 127 - - - 1819
N-10 Liari-Gwadar-Gabd (Makran Coastal Highway) - - - 653 - - 653
N-15 Mansehra-Naran-Jalkhad-Chilas - - 175 - 65 - 240
N-25 Karachi-Bela-Khuzdar-Kalat-Quetta-Chaman - 23 - 790 - - 813
N-30 Basima-Khuzdar - - - 110 - - 110
N-35 Hassanabad-Abbotabad-Thakot-Gilgit-Khunjrab-
(KKH) 15 176 - 615 - 806
N-40 Lakpass (near Quetta)-Dalbandin-Taftan - - - 610 - - 610
N-45 Nowshera-Dir-Chitral - - 309 - - - 309
N-50 D.I. Khan-Zhob-Kuchlacknear Quetta) - - 143 388 - - 531
N-55 [Link]-Kohat-
Peshawar(Indus Highway) 373 495 396 - - - 1264
N-65 Sukkur-Sibi-Saryab(Quetta) - 90 - 295 - - 385
N-70 [Link]-Loralai-Qila Saifullah 181 - - 266 - - 447
N-75 Islamabad-Satra Mile-Lower Topa-Kohala 90 - - - - - 90
N-80 Tarnol(Rawalpindi)-Fateh Jang-Khushalgarh-
Kohat 108 - 38 - - - 146
N-85 Hoshab-Panguir-Nag-Basima-Surab - - - 487 - - 487
N-90 Kwazakhela-Alouri-Besham - - 64 - - - 64
N-95 Chakdara-Mingora-Manglour-Kwazakhela-
Madyan-Bahrain-Kalam - - 135 - - - 135
N-105 Larkana-Naudero-Lakhi - 61 - - - - 61
N-110 Gharo-Mirpur Sakro-Keti Bander - 90 - - - - 90
N-120 Hyderabad-Mirpur Khas-Umer Kot-Khokropar - 220 - - - - 220
1788 1650 1563 3599 680 0 9280
S-1 KKH (Gilgit)-Skardu-Road - - - - 167 - 167
S-2 Kohala-Muzafarabad Road - - - - - 40 40
0 0 0 0 167 40 207
M-1 Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway 67 - 88 - - - 155
M-2 Lahore-Islamabad Motorway 367 - - - - - 367
M-3 Pindi Bhattian-Faisalabad Motorway 53 - - - - - 53
M-8 Gwadar-Hoshab-Khuzdar-Ratodero Section - - - 892 - - 892
M-9 Karachi-Hyderabad Motorway - 136 - - - - 136
M-10 Karachi Northern Bypass - 57 - - - - 57
487 193 88 892 0 0 1660

Total 2275 1843 1651 4491 847 40 11147


Others
M-7 Dadu-Dureji-Hub Motorway - 132 - 138 - - 270
E-3 Kot Sarwar-Hafizabad-Wazirabad 100 - - - - - 100
E-4 Faisalabad-Khanewal 184 - - - - - 184
E-5 Khanewal-Lodhran Section 100 - - - - - 100
S-3 Muzaffarabad-Chakothi - - - - - 55 55
Total 384 132 0 138 0 55 709

Grand Total 2659 1975 1651 4629 847 95 11856


%age wise 22% 17% 14% 39% 7% 1% 100%

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The table further shows the province-wise breakup of National Highways in Km. one
may define "National Highways" as modest quality of black-top, inter-provincial,
federalized highways. In modern terminology they are also known as "Motorways".
The total lengths of these roads is shown as 11,147 Km. adding some important link
roads to this total, the grand total length of the network is 11,856 Km.

The design standards i.e. width, types of pavement, surface treatment and size of
formation is based on the volume of traffic and loading. Keeping in view the
technical considerations and financial constraints, Pakistan has adopted the following
standards which had been considered as moderate to those of the developed countries.
These have been given in Table 2. It may be mentioned here that the increase in the
road transport is becoming more acute as the road sub-sector is clearly the dominant
mode of transport and its share has been increasing to its present level of 62% for
freight and 80% for the domestic passengers. Nevertheless on increase of 10%
annually is predicted in the traffic density on the highways.

Table 2. Some Design Parameters (NHW BOARD)

Volume limits Types of


Formation width
vehicles/day Pavement
3.65m (12ft.)
pavement with
Up to 500 12m (40ft.)
triple surface
treatment
12m (40ft.) In hilly terrain,
7.3m (24ft.)
pavement width may have
pavement with
500 to 3,000 to be reduced form 7.3m to
triple surface
6m and formation width
treatment
from 12m to 9.75m.
12m (40ft.) In hilly terrain,
pavement width may have
3,000 to 7,000 7.3m (24ft.) to be reduced form 7.3m to
6m and formation width
from 12m to 9.75m.
9m (30ft.) median in Rural
4-lane divided
7,000 to 48,000 areas & 2m median in
asphalt concrete
Urban

The issue of structural strength of the pavement vis-à-vis vehicle loading is


confounded by the fact that more than 60% of the trucks on road are overloaded
above 8,200 Kg. (18,000 lbs) axle load which is the design axle loading. NLC trucks
have axles loading as high as 10,800 lbs to 13,233 lbs.

2.11 Vehicle Performance

Acceleration and deceleration rates are often critical parameters in determining


highway design. These rates often govern the dimensioning of such design features as
intersections, motorway ramps, climbing or passing lanes, and turnout bays for buses.
The following data are not meant to depict average vehicles for the design types, but

29
rather the low-horsepower (compact) car or the loaded truck or bus.

Figure 5. Acceleration distances for passenger cars on level grade

Figure 6. Deceleration distances for passenger vehicles approaching intersection

Based on its acceleration and deceleration rates, the passenger car seldom controls
design. From Figure 5 and 6, it is obvious that relatively rapid acceleration and
deceleration are possible, although they may be uncomfortable for the passengers and
unnecessary. Also, due to the rapid changes being made in vehicle operating
characteristics, current data on acceleration and deceleration may soon become out
dated.

When a highway is located in a recreational area, compensation for the performance


characteristics of recreation vehicles should be made.

2.12 Vehicular Pollution

The pollutants emitted from motor vehicles and impact on land uses adjacent to
highways is factors affecting the highway design process. As each vehicle travels
along the highway, it emits the pollutants into the atmosphere and transmits noise to
the surrounding area. The highway designer must recognize these impacts and

30
evaluate them before selection of transportation alternatives. There are many factors
that affect the rate of pollutant emission from vehicles. Among these are vehicle mix,
vehicle speed, ambient air temperature, ages of the vehicles on the road, and
percentage of vehicles operating in a cold mode.

Pollution from vehicles in the form of noise must also be recognized by the highway
engineer. Noise is unwanted sound, a subjective result of sounds that intrude on or
interfere with activities such as conversation, thinking, or sleeping. Sound can exist
without people-noise cannot.

Motor vehicle noise is generated by the functioning of equipment within the vehicle,
by its aerodynamics, by the action of tires on the roadway, and in metropolitan areas,
by the short-duration sounds of braking squeal, exhaust backfires, horns, and sirens of
emergency vehicles.

Trucks and automobiles are the major noise producing vehicles on the nation's
highways. Motorcycles are a factor to be considered because of the rapid increase in
their numbers in recent years. Trucks, particularly heavy diesel-powered trucks,
present the most difficult noise problem on the highway. The development of more
powerful engines has generally increased noise. Modern automobiles are relatively
quiet, particularly at the lower cruising speeds, but exist in such numbers as to make
their total noise contribution significant. A steep grade has little influence on the noise
of automobiles but can cause an increase in noise level for large trucks. Noise
produce by automobiles increases dramatically within speed. Unlike the automobiles,
truck noise levels are less influenced by speed because the factors (including
acceleration noise) that are not affected by speed directly usually make up a major
part of the total noise.

For passenger cars, noise produced under normal operating conditions is primarily
from the engine exhaust system and the tire-roadway interaction. Under high-speed
cruise conditions the dominant source is from the tire-roadway interaction. For
conditions of maximum acceleration the engine system noise predominates. Cars at
constant highway speeds give much the same noise reading whether or not the engine
is operating, because the noise is principally produced by the tire-roadway interaction
with some added wind noise. Truck noise has several principal components
originating from such sources as exhaust. Engine gears, and air intake. At higher
speeds, tire-roadway interaction and wind noise add to the problem. As in passenger
cars, the noise produced by large diesel trucks is primarily from the engine exhaust
system and the tire-roadway interaction. For trucks, however, engine exhaust noise
tends to dominant tire-roadway interaction for most operating conditions. This is
particularly true during acceleration. A major source of noise of large trucks is the
exhaust stack.

The quality of noise varies with the number and operating conditions of the vehicles;
the directionality and aptitude of the noise vary with highway design features. The
highway planner must therefore be concerned with how highway locations and design
influence the vehicle perceived by persons residing or working nearby.

However, touches alarming levels in large cities of Pakistan (April 2011 report).
Noise pollution in Rawalpindi (called twin cities with Islamabad) has increased to a

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dangerous level due to rapid commercialization and floods of unfit vehicles,
becoming one of the major causes of hypertension, depression and other
psychological diseases among the residents. The Punjab Environment Protection
Agency (Punjab EPA) measured noise level in the city and said it had reached 105 dB
(decibels) against the permissible limit of 85 dB fixed by the World Health
Organization (WHO).

The noise level at Benazir Bhutto Road was 104 decibels due to rush of mostly unfit
vehicles, rickshaws and commercial activities. The average noise level in the city
(daytime) was 105 decibels, adding hardly a few residential localities and the
standard night noise level of 45 decibels. He said a majority of the residential areas
near commercial centers and busy roads had the night noise level of 75 decibels.

Electricity generators and CNG stations have added to the noise pollution. The engine
noise of majority of vehicles coupled with horns is also compounding the situation.

A random check (April 2011) showed that not less than 84 vehicles were running on
the roads of Rawalpindi without fitness certificates. The environment watchdog
recommended that relevant authorities (the traffic police and Regional Transport
Authority (RTA) should take action against such vehicles at regular intervals.

The psychiatrist experts say that exposure to noise was causing diseases like tinnitus,
vertigo, deafness and cardiovascular impacts. Nevertheless, the common cause of
noise pollution is depression and anxiety. Thus the experts advise suffering from
anxiety and depression to refrain from exposing to noise.

2.13 Driver Performance

An appreciation of driver performance is essential to proper highway design and


operation. Design suitability rests as much on the ability of the highway to be used
safely and efficiently as on any other criterion. When drivers use a highway designed
to be compatible with their capabilities and limitations, their performance is aided.
When a design is incompatible with the attributes of drivers, the chances for driver
errors increase and accidents are inefficient operation often result.

Thus information about driver performance is useful to highway engineers in the


design and operation of highways. It describes drivers in terms of performance-how
they interact with the highway and its information system and why they make errors.
When positive guidance is applied to design, competent drivers using well design
highways with appropriate information displays can perform safely and efficiently.
Properly designed and operated highways in turn provide positive guidance to
drivers.

2.14 The Driving Task

The driving task depends on receiving and using information. The information
received in transit is compared with the information already possessed by drivers.
Decisions are then made and actions of control performed. Driving encompasses a
number of discrete and interrelated activities. When grouped by performance, the

32
activities fall into three levels: control, guidance, and navigation. These activities are
ordered on scales of complexity task and importance for safety.

Simple over learned steering and speed control are at one end of the scale (control).
Road-following and safe-path maintenance in response to road and traffic conditions
are at midlevel (guidance). Trip planning and route following are at the other end of
the scale (navigation).

The driving task may be complex and demanding, several individual activities may be
performed simultaneously, requiring smooth and efficient handling and integration of
information. Driving often occurs at high speeds, under time pressure, in unfamiliar
locations and under adverse environment conditions. The driving task may at other
times be so simple and undemanding that a driver becomes inattentive. The key to
safe, efficient performance is error-free information handling.

Driver errors occur because drivers do not know what is required, because situation
may lead to task overload or inattentiveness, and because deficient or inconsistent
design or information display may cause confusion. Driver errors also result from
pressures of time, complexity of decisions, or profusion of information. Control and
guidance errors may directly contribute to accidents. Navigational errors resulting in
delay contribute to inefficient operations and may indirectly lead to accidents.

Highway design and traffic operation have the greatest effect on guidance. An
appreciation of this task level is needed by the highway designer to aid driver
performance. In other words the rapid growth of vehicles on the roads is continuously
and rapidly increasing pressure on the designers and the operators of the networks.

2.15 Lane Placement and Road Following

Lane placement and road-following decisions are basic to vehicle guidance, with
steering and speed control judgment representing major elements. A feedback process
is used to follow alignment and grade in keeping with road and environmental
conditions. Obstacle-avoidance decisions are integrated into the lane placement and
road-following activities. This portion of the guidance task level is continually
performed--when no other traffic is present (singularly), or when it is shared with
other activities (integrated).

2.16 Car Following

Car-following decisions are more complex than road-following decisions because


they involve speed control modifications. In car following, drivers constantly modify
their speed to maintain the safe gaps. They have to assess the speed of the lead
vehicle and the speed and position of the other vehicles in the traffic stream and
continually detect, assess, and respond to changes. Analogically speaking, “a man
can fail many times but he isn’t failure until he begins to blame somebody”… John F.
Kennedy. A driver has to be alert all the time. It reminds us few words by Winston
Churchill (1874-1965), “the optimistic sees opportunity in every danger, the
pessimistic sees danger in every opportunity”. However, a driver should follow the
second half of the late PM’s advice.

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2.17 Overtaking and Passing

Overtaking and passing decisions are still more complex, requiring modifications in
road and car following and in speed control. In passing, drivers, must judge the speed
and acceleration potential of their own vehicle, the speed of the lead vehicle, the
speed and rate of closure of the approached vehicle, and the presence of an acceptable
gap in the traffic stream.

Nevertheless, other guidance task-level activities include merging, lane changing,


avoidance of pedestrians, and response to traffic control devices; most of these
activities require complex decisions, judgments and predictions.

2.18 The Information System

Each element that provides information is part of the information system of the
highway. Formal sources of the information are the traffic control devices specifically
designed to display information. Informal sources include such elements as design
features, pavement joints, tree lines, and traffic. Together, the formal and informal
sources display the information drivers need to perform the task of driving safely and
efficiently. Formal and informal sources of information are interrelated and must
reinforce and augment each other to be maximally useful.

Traffic control devices provide guidance and navigation information that often is not
otherwise available or apparent. These devices include regulatory, warning, and route
guidance information. Traffic control devices, such as markings and delineation, also
display additional information that augments some roadway or environmental feature.
These devices aid in the reception of information that might otherwise be overlooked
or difficult to receive. Information relative to the proper traffic control devices
available in the relevant Manual.

As regards of roadway and its environment, selection of speed and paths is dependent
on the drivers being able to view the road. Drivers must see the road directly confront
of their vehicles and far enough in advance to predict with a high degree of accuracy
the alignment, grade, width and related aspects of the roadway. The view of the road
includes its immediate environment. Such appurtenances to and obstacles as
shoulders, sign supports bridge piers, abutments, guardrail, and median barriers that
affect the driver must be clearly visible.

However, drivers have to use many of their senses to efficiently handle the
information thus gathered. Further, they detect changes in vehicle handling through
instinct. They feel road surface texture through variations in the steering wheel. They
hear the sirens of emergency vehicles and see alignment, markings, and signs. Most
information is received virtually.

Though out the driving task, drivers perform several functions almost
simultaneously. They look at information sources, make numerous decisions, and
perform necessary control actions. Sources of information (some needed, others not)
compete for their attention. Needed information must be in the field of view, be

34
available when needed, be in a usual form, and be capable of getting the driver's
attention.

Because drivers can only attend to one visual information source at a time, they
integrate the various information inputs and maintain as awareness of the changing
environment through on attention-sharing process. Drivers sample visual information
obtained in short-duration glances, shifting their attention from one source to another.
They make some decisions immediately and delay others; they rely on judgment,
estimate and prediction to fill in gaps.

2.19 Expectancy

Expectancies are formed by the drivers' experience and training. Situations that
generally occur in the same way, and successful responses to these situations, are
incorporated into the driver's stores of knowledge. Expectancy relates to the drivers'
readiness to respond to common situations in predictable and successful ways. it
affects how driver perceive and handle information, and modify the speed and
accuracy of their responses.

Reinforced expectancies help driver's response rapidly and correctly. Unusual,


unique, or uncommon situations that violate expectancies may cause longer response
times, inappropriate responses, or errors.

Most design features are sufficiently similar to create expectancies related to common
geometric, operational, and route characteristics. For example, because most
motorway interchanges have left exists, drivers generally expect to exit from the left.
This aids performance by enabling rapid and correct responses when left exists are to
be negotiated. There are, however, instances where expectancies are violated. For
example, if an exit is on the right, then the left-exit expectancy is incorrect, and
response times may be lengthened or errors committed.

The production of designs in accordance with prevalent expectancies is one of the


most important ways to aid performance. Unusual or nonstandard design should be
avoided, and design elements should be applied consistently throughout a highway
segment. Care should be taken to maintain consistency from segment to another.
When drivers get the information they expect from the highway and its traffic control
devices, their performance tends to be error free. When they do not get what they
expect, or get what they do not expect, errors may result.

2.20 Driver Error

A common characteristic of many high-accident locations is that they place large or


unusual demands on the information-processing capabilities of drivers. Inefficient
operation and accidents usually occur where the changes for information-handling
errors are high. At locations where the design is deficient the possibility of error and
appropriate driver performance increases.

Many errors are caused by deficiencies in a drivers' capabilities or temporary states


which, in conjunction with an indicate design or difficult situation, produce the

35
failure. For example, insufficient experience and training often contribute to the
inability to recover from a skid. Similarly inappropriate risk taking may lead to errors
in gap acceptance while passing. Poor glare recovery may cause elderly drivers to
miss information at night.

Adverse psycho-physiological states also lead to driver failures. These include


decreased performance caused by alcohol and drugs. The effects of fatigue, caused by
sleep deprivation from extended periods of driving without rest, or prolonged
exposure to monotonous environments, or both, contribute to accidents involvement.

It is generally not possible for a design or operational procedure to reduce errors


caused by innate driver deficiencies. However, designs should be as forgiving as
possible to lessen the consequences of these kinds of failure. Errors committed by
competent drivers can be reduced by proper design and operation. Most individuals
possess the attributes and skills to drive properly and are neither drunk nor fatigued at
the start of their trips. When drivers overextend themselves, fail to take proper rest
breaks, or drive for prolonged periods, they ultimately reach a less-than competent
state. Fatigued drivers represent a sizeable portion of the long-trip driving population
and should be considered in highway design.

2.21 Error Due to Situation Demands

Drivers often commit errors when they have to perform several highly complex tasks
at the same time under extreme time pressure. This type of error usually happens in
urban locations with closely spaced decision points, intensive land use, complex
design features, and heavy traffic. Resultant information-processing demands beyond
the drivers' capabilities may cause confused or inadequate understanding or
overloaded thought processes.

Other locations present the opposite situations and are associated with different types
of errors. These typically rural locations may have widely spaced decision points,
sparse land us, smooth alignment, and light traffic. Information demands are thus
minimal, and rather than being overloaded, drivers' thought processes may be
overloaded. Errors are caused by a state of decreased vigilances in which drivers fail
to detect, recognize, or respond to new, infrequently encountered, or unexpected
elements or information sources.

2.22 Informing Drivers on Road Conditions with the Aid


of Signs

On many highways, not all sections meet the requirements of modern traffic safety.
The warning to drivers in good time on the sections ahead and the organization of
traffic by means to positive measures becomes a must.

This is achieved by pavement markings; separation of the main traffic lanes from the
auxiliary ones and from the shoulders by means of shoulder strips of white concrete,
the provision on auxiliary traffic lanes, for example ramps, of intersections with
rougher pavements that cause rumbling in motion, the installation of standard road

36
signs; the installation of non-standard road signs switched on during periods of
unfavorable weather conditions.

The effect of using warning road signs has practically not been assessed. Their
significance is undoubtedly greater for drivers using a given road for the first time
than for ones well acquainted with it. Publications on the subject contain many data
on the positive effect of signs installed at hazardous places. Thus, according to the
data of RRL (U.K.), the setting up of "Stop" and "Give Way" signs on thirty minor
roads before inter-sections with highways reduced the number of accidents at these
places by 80%.

At the same time, there are sufficiently great indications of the fact that placing of a
road sign is not yet a guarantee of its requirements being compiled with by drivers.

Many drivers, completely observed in operating their vehicle, simply do not notice
road signs.

The following experiment was run in Sweden. Seven temporary standard road signs
were placed at different locations on a 170-Km road. After each sign 200 vehicles
were stopped at a distance of 700 meters from it, and their drivers were asked the
following question: "What sign you have just passed?" The sign "Speed Restriction"
was remembered by 78% of the drivers, "Rough Pavement" by 55%, "Danger Ahead"
by 18%. Even making allowances for the ability of many people to rapidly forget
information that is no longer needed. It has to be acknowledged that a great fraction
of the signs set up along a highway simply remain unnoticed by drivers.

For this reason, the trend has lately appeared in the organization of traffic to duplicate
the information perceived by drivers at hazardous spots visually (signs, markings),
and in some cases the measured aimed at acting on other organs of sense of a driver,
for example by providing rumble or noise strips.

The placing of warning and mandatory signs along a road should be planned very
carefully. Each of these signs requires increased attention on the part of a driver and
restriction of the speed. For this reason, their unsubstantiated installation on a road,
cases of which are quite frequent, reduces the transportation and operation
characteristics of the road. Furthermore, owing to the unsubstantial setting up of
several signs, the drivers when noticing that the signs do not conform to the actual
conditions on a highway lose confidence on them and stop complying with their
requirements, which reduces the effectiveness of signs installed at the locations where
increased attention of drivers is required.

The arrangements of the signs should take into account the condition of travel of
streams of vehicles, indicating to drivers the places appreciably with respect to these
conditions from the preceding ones. In the conditions of a steppe relief, it may be
useful to inform drivers about a descent with a steepness of 5% on a raving crossing.
On the other hand, the formal observance of the requirements to the sign "Series of
Bends" in a mountainous region would lead to its too frequent installations. The
absence of substantiated criteria for the installation of highway signs sometimes leads
to absolutely unsubstantiated cases of introducing restrictions on highways on the
basis of the private opinions and ideas of line employees of the highway forces and

37
the highway police.

It is the best policy to locate road signs on the basis of the relative accident locations
on the basis of the normal diagrams of the highways. However, the scheme of
location of the road signs should not be considered as a long-time one not to be
revised for a number of years. The conditions of traveling along a road change during
a year owing to seasonal changes in the weather and to seasonal peaks of the traffic
volume coinciding, for example, with a period of mass vacations. In this connection,
it is necessary to introduce efficient systems of location of road signs acting for a
short period and of removing signs that are no longer needed.

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