0% found this document useful (0 votes)
45 views22 pages

Carbon Sequestration Risk Management Guide

This document summarizes approaches for assessing and managing risks related to geologic carbon sequestration. It discusses how risk assessment involves identifying hazards, estimating the likelihood of each hazard occurring, and estimating the consequences. It outlines several potential hazards of carbon sequestration, including exposure from pipeline leaks, leakage from underground storage, and induced seismicity. The document advocates applying risk assessment and risk management concepts to study geologic carbon sequestration in California and evaluate related human and environmental exposure risks over long time scales.

Uploaded by

Bolaji
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
45 views22 pages

Carbon Sequestration Risk Management Guide

This document summarizes approaches for assessing and managing risks related to geologic carbon sequestration. It discusses how risk assessment involves identifying hazards, estimating the likelihood of each hazard occurring, and estimating the consequences. It outlines several potential hazards of carbon sequestration, including exposure from pipeline leaks, leakage from underground storage, and induced seismicity. The document advocates applying risk assessment and risk management concepts to study geologic carbon sequestration in California and evaluate related human and environmental exposure risks over long time scales.

Uploaded by

Bolaji
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

LBNL513E

Carbon Sequestration Risks and Risk Management

[Link],[Link],[Link]

EnvironmentalEnergyTechnologiesDivision

LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory

Berkeley,California94720

Acknowledgment:ThisworkwassupportedinpartbyWESTCARBthroughtheAssistant
SecretaryforFossilEnergy,OfficeofCoalandPowerSystems,throughtheNationalEnergy
TechnologyLaboratory(NETL),andbyLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryunder
DepartmentofEnergyContractNo.DEAC0205CH11231.

Disclaimer:ThisdocumentwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbytheUnitedStates
[Link],neithertheUnited
StatesGovernmentnoranyagencythereof,norTheRegentsoftheUniversityofCalifornia,nor
anyoftheiremployees,makesanywarranty,expressorimplied,orassumesanylegal
responsibilityfortheaccuracy,completeness,orusefulnessofanyinformation,apparatus,
product,orprocessdisclosed,orrepresentsthatitsusewouldnotinfringeprivatelyowned
[Link],process,orservicebyitstrade
name,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwise,doesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyits
endorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagency
thereof,[Link]
expressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesGovernmentor
anyagencythereoforTheRegentsoftheUniversityofCalifornia.
Abstract

Thissectionsummarizestheriskassessmentapproachesandriskmanagementmethodsthat
canbeappliedtostudygeologiccarbonsequestrationinCalifornia,includingCO2capture,
[Link]
[Link],
[Link],pathwaysforhumanand
environmentalexposureduringoperationsandpostoperations,andhowriskschangeoverthe
timescalesassociatedwithstorageastheCO2migratesandreactsinthesubsurface
environment,arealsodiscussed.


Table of Contents

1.0 Introduction.......................................................................................................................... 1
2.0 BackgroundonRiskAssessmentandRiskManagement.............................................. 1
2.1. RiskAssessment ............................................................................................................. 1
2.1.1. Exposureassessmentaspartofriskassessment .................................................. 3
2.2. RiskManagement........................................................................................................... 4
3.0 TheProblemofUncertainty............................................................................................... 4
4.0 CarbonSequestrationHazards.......................................................................................... 6
4.1. WhatCanGoWrong?.................................................................................................... 7
4.1.1. CO2DoseResponseRelationship ........................................................................... 8
4.1.2. Hazard1:ExposureDueToPipelineLeaks.......................................................... 9
4.1.3. Hazard2:ExposureduetoLeakagefromGeologicalStorage ........................... 11
4.1.4. Hazard3:LeakagefromGeologicalStoragetoGroundwater ........................... 13
4.1.5. Hazard4:LeakagefromGeologicalStoragetoFossilFuelAssets .................... 15
4.1.6. Hazard5:LeakageEliminatesBenefitsofGeologicalStorage ........................... 15
4.1.7. Hazard6:Inducedfracturingorseismicity........................................................... 15
5.0 Discussion............................................................................................................................. 16
6.0 References............................................................................................................................. 18

1.0 Introduction
Theintentofgeologiccarbondioxide(CO2)sequestration,alsoknownasgeologiccarbon
sequestration,istopreventanthropogenicCO2fromenteringtheatmosphere,thereby
[Link],theCO2willbesafelytransportedto
sequestrationsitesandinjecteddeepunderground,whereitwillbepermanentlytrapped,with
nonegativeimpactontheterrestrialenvironmentoronundergroundresourcessuchas
[Link],carbonsequestrationwillbeneitherperfectly
[Link],and
evaluationoftheseriskswillbeimportantformakingdecisionsconcerningwhereandhow
sequestrationshouldbeperformed.

Thegoalofariskassessmentistoquantifythelikelihoodofharm(orloss)andtopresentthe
resultsinaformatthatassistsdecisionmakerswhomustacttotolerate,mitigate,oreliminate
[Link]
assessedrisks,comparethecostsofreducingtheserisktobenefitsgained,comparetherisksto
thesocietalbenefitsderivedfromincurringtherisk,andtoestablishpoliticalandinstitutional
[Link],riskmanagement,andtheir
relationshipstopolicydecisionscanbefoundinKahnemanetal.(1982),Ruckelshaus(1983),
NRC(1984and1996),andKammenandHassenzahl(1999).

Thissectionsummarizestheriskassessmentapproachesandriskmanagementmethodsthat
canbeappliedtostudygeologiccarbonsequestrationinCalifornia,includingCO2capture,
[Link],
pathwaysforhumanandenvironmentalexposureduringoperationsandpostoperations,and
howriskschangeoverthetimescalesassociatedwithstorageastheCO2migratesandreactsin
thesubsurfaceenvironment.

2.0 Background on Risk Assessment and Risk Management


Tounderstandandmanagethethreatsposedbyatechnology,decisionmakersoftenrelyon
riskassessmentasaprocesstoidentifythelikelihoodthatsomeaction(orinaction)willresultin
harm,andrelyonriskmanagementtocommunicateand/[Link]
introductiontobothconceptsastheyrelatetocarbonsequestration,inthefollowing
[Link],1996providesmoredetailifdesired.

2.1. Risk Assessment


Riskassessmentrequiresnotsimplyanevaluationofwhatdeleteriouseffectsarepossible,but
alsoanassessmentofthelikelihoodoftheseeffects.

Inanearlyandwidelycitedpaper,KaplanandGarrick(1981)notedthatariskassessment
shouldaddressthreequestions:

1. Whatcangowrong?
2. Howlikelyisittohappen?
3. Whataretheconsequences?

1
Thefirstquestionisansweredbyahazardassessment:definingaccidents,failures,orexposure
sequencesbeginningwiththeirinitiatingevent,followedbyanychainofeventsthateither
[Link]
[Link],
inwhichachemicalreleaseleadstoexposure,whichinturnleadstoaninternaldose,whichin
[Link]
[Link]
addressedbytheendstateifthesequenceoccurs,whatistheultimateimpact?which
expressesconsequencesassomenumberoffatalities,injuries,ordiseasesinthehumanhealth
riskassessment;astheexpectedeffectonspeciesorecosystemsinecologicalriskassessment;or
asdollarslostinafinancialriskassessment.

TheSocietyforRiskAnalysis(SRA2007)hasbroadlydefinedriskasthepotentialfor
realizationofunwanted,adverseconsequencestohumanlife,health,property,orthe
environment;estimationofriskisusuallybasedontheexpectedvalueoftheconditional
probabilityoftheeventoccurringtimestheconsequenceoftheeventgiventhatithas
[Link]
summationoverarangeofpotentialeventsequencesoftheconsequencesfromthatsequence
[Link]
instrumentaldefinitionofriskastheexpectedvalueofaprobabilitydistributionofimpacts.
FromthisapproachKaplanandGarrick(1981)defineriskasatripletsetcomposedof
sequences,probabilities,[Link]
quantitatively:riskistheexpectedvalueofanundesirableconsequence:
n
Risk = ( probi )(consequencei ) (51)
i=1

Here,iistheithhazard,andprobiandconsequenceiaretheprobabilityandconsequence(over
sometimeinterval)[Link],the
[Link]
anaerospacevehicle,achemicalprocessplant,acivilstructureoranuclearpowerplant,risk
maythenbeexpressedasanaverageannualprobabilityofconsequencesuchasmission
failurerate,orchronicexposurerate,orcoredamagefrequency,oracutefatalityrate.

Theexpressionofriskintermsoftheexpectedvalueofundesirableconsequences,asin
Equation51,isnottheonlymethodtodefineorquantifyrisk,andisoftennotadequateifused
[Link]
thisway,[Link],PolicyAmightbe
guaranteedtokill100peopleeachyear,whilePolicyBhas,eachyear,a1/1000chanceofkilling
100,000people.BothofthesehavethesameriskasdefinedbyEquation51(anexpected
valueof100deathsperyear)[Link]
drawbackofquantifyingriskasasinglenumberisthatthenumbersometimesdependson
quantitiesthatareveryhardtoestimate,suchastheoddsofanextremelyunlikelybut
[Link],itmaybealmostimpossibleto
quantifyeitherthe(tiny)probabilityofamajorearthquakeinducedbyCO2injection,orthe

2
(enormous)costifitoccurs,buttheriskasdefinedbyEquation51mightdependstronglyon
theproductofthesetwonumbers.

Ratherthanattempttoquantifyriskwithasinglenumber,asinEquation51,itcanbebetterto
generatemoresophisticatedsummariesofrisks,suchassummariesofthebestplausiblecase
andworstplausiblecase,orstatisticaldistributionsofcostandhazardestimates.

Riskassessmentstartswithhazardidentification,whichreferstoidentifyingallpossible
[Link]
identification,[Link]
[Link]
characterizationincludesthreeprincipalelements:(1)identifyallofthescenariosinwhichthe
negativeeffectsofthehazardwouldberealized,(2)quantifythenegativeconsequences
associatedwitheachscenario,and(3)assessthemagnitudeandsourcesofuncertaintythatlimit
theaccuracyoftheestimatesinparts(1)and(2).

2.1.1. Exposure Assessment as Part of Risk Assessment


AswillbediscussedinSection5.4,oneofthehazardsassociatedwithCO2sequestrationis
exposureofpeople,animals,[Link]
exposurefromatoxicagent,hazardidentificationcomprisesidentifyingsourcesandpathways,
andestimatingenvironmentalconcentrationsinexposuremediasuchasambientairandindoor
[Link]
willberealized,andquantifyingtheresultingexposures;thisiscalledexposureassessment.
Riskassessmentfurtherincludesquantifyingadoseresponsefunctionandusingitto
determinethenegativeeffectsofthepredictedexposures.

Exposureassessmentisanimportantcomponentofariskassessmentthataddressesresidential
[Link]
[Link]
informationontheintensity,frequency,anddurationofhumanexposurestoaharmful
[Link]
informationforrealworldscenariostoestimatethelevelsatwhichhumanpopulations
children,workers,thetotalpopulation,themostexposedindividual,orothergroupsmaybe
exposedforcomparisonwiththedoselevelsdevelopedinthedoseresponseanalysis.IfCO2
sequestrationweretotakeplaceataspecificlocationandinagivenmanner,whatexposures
wouldbeexpectedforanimals,plants,andpeopleinthearea,nowandintothefuture?

Doseresponseassessmentforaparticularsubstanceevaluatesdataontherelationshipbetween
thedoseofthesubstanceadministeredorreceivedandthelevelofaspecificadverseeffectthat
[Link](asa
resultofexposure)totheagentcorrespondwithadversehealthresponsesisthecritical
[Link],riskassessorsreviewstudiesoftestanimals
orpeopleexposedthroughtimeandtrytoascertainhowtheaccumulateddoselinkswith
[Link]
inferenceoflowdoseeffectsfromhighdoseexperimentsiscalledthelowdoseextrapolation

3
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
anassessmentofthevariationsinresponsesuchasdifferencesinsusceptibilitybetweenyoung
[Link]
termsofbodyweight,metabolism,breathingrates,bloodflowandotherbiologicalparameters
[Link]
sequestration,thedoseresponseassessmentstepattemptstodeterminetherelationship
betweenthemagnitudeofexposuretoCO2andtheprobabilityandseverityofadverseeffects.
Ifaplant,animal,orpersonisexposedtoagivenconcentrationoveragiventimeperiod,what
(ifany)negativeimpactswillresult?

AgreatdealofinformationisavailableconcerningCO2toxicity;someoftherelevantmaterialis
summarizedinalatersectionofthisreport.

2.2. Risk Management


Oncetherisksassociatedwithanactionhavebeenidentifiedandquantified,thedecisionmaker
orregulatordevelopsabasisforevaluatingtheserisksandthen,asnecessary,developingand
[Link]
processistoestablishthesignificanceoftheestimatedrisk,comparethecostsofreducingthis
risktobenefitsgained,comparetheestimatedriskstothesocietalbenefitsderivedfrom
incurringtherisk,andcarryingoutthepoliticalandinstitutionalprocessofreducingrisk.
Therearefourtypesofanalysesthatarecommonlyusedintheriskmanagementprocess:risk
benefit,costbenefit,riskrisk,[Link]
comparisonoftherisksaddedbyanactivitytotheconcurrentbenefits(usuallyeconomic)
[Link](indollars)ofreducingrisk
tothebenefits(inequivalentdollarsoranappropriatesurrogate)gainedbyreducingrisk.A
riskriskanalysisestablishesthesignificanceofanestimatedriskbycomparingittosomeother
acceptableorfamiliarrisksuchasthoseassociatedwithbackgroundexposures,household
accidents,occupationalhazards,naturaloccurrences,[Link]
tocompareriskreductionperunitcostamongseveraloptionsfordealingwiththesamerisk.

3.0 The Problem of Uncertainty


[Link]
[Link]
uncertainty,itisimportanttodistinguishbetweenrandomvariations(orvariability),andlack
[Link],ascurrentlyconceivedandpracticed,accountsforthesetwo
typesofuncertainty(NRC1996),referredtoasaleatory(randomvariationsandchance
outcomesinthephysicalworld)andepistemic(lackofknowledgeaboutthephysicalworld).
Moreresearch(bothobservationalandtheoretical)canreduceepistemicuncertainty,but
aleatoryuncertaintycanonlybebettercharacterized,butnotreduced,withmoreresearch.

Aneffectiveandusefulriskassessmentposesachallengetotheassessorinmanyways.
Considerasanexample,[Link]

4
uncertainaboutwhetherwehavecapturedallofthemostimportanteventsinourportfolio
[Link],sourcesarenotwell
characterized,andexposurepathwaysarecomplexandvarysubstantiallyamongindividuals
andamongdifferentpopulationsintermsofage,location,andsocioeconomicstatus.
Quantifyingtherelationshipbetweenchemicalexposureandtheprobabilityofanadverse
healtheffectisalsocomplicatedbytheneedtoextrapolateeffectsfromhighdosestolower
[Link],littleistypicallyknownaboutinterindividual
[Link]
[Link]
[Link],
developingquantitativeriskestimatesinthefaceofsubstantialuncertainty,andappropriately
characterizingthedegreeofconfidenceintheresultsarerecurringthemesinhealthrisk
assessmentaswellasotherfieldsofriskassessmentecologicalrisk,accidentrisks,global
climatechange,economicrisk,etc.

Decisionmakersoftenoperateunderthepremisethat,withsufficientfunding,scienceand
technologywillprovideanobviousandcosteffectivesolutiontotheproblemsofprotecting
[Link],inrealitytherearemanysourcesofuncertainty
[Link]
[Link]
ofuncertainty,[Link]
developedtheoryofdecisionmakingunderuncertainty,whichhasbeendescribedinChernoff
andMoses(1959),Lindley(1985),andBerger(1985)amongothers.

Oneoftenusedmethodforaddressinguncertaintyinriskassessmentsisthecompoundingof
upperboundestimatesinordertomakedecisionsbasedonahighlyconservativeestimateof
[Link](as
describedinthetextscitedabove).Thislatterapproachleavesthedecisionmakerwithno
flexibilitytoaddressmarginsoferror;toconsiderreducibleversusirreducibleuncertainty;to
separateindividualvariabilityfromtruescientificuncertainty;ortoconsiderbenefits,costs,and
comparablerisksinthedecisionmakingprocess.

[Link]
[Link]
uncertainty,itisimportanttoconsideravarietyofplausiblehypothesesabouttheworld;
consideravarietyofpossiblestrategiesformeetingourgoals;favoractionsthatarerobustto
uncertainties;favoractionsthatareinformative;probeandexperiment;monitorresults;update
assessmentsandmodifypolicyaccordinglyandfavoractionsthatarereversible(Ludwigetal.
1993).Inordertomakeriskassessmentconsistentwithsuchanapproach,itshouldincorporate
aformalquantitativetreatmentofuncertaintiesintheriskcharacterizationstep.

Initsdraftreportontreatmentofuncertaintyinexposureassessment,theInternational
ProgramonChemicalSafety(IPCS2007)proposedfourtiersforaddressinguncertaintyin
exposureassessmentrangingfromtheuseofdefaultassumptionstosophisticatedprobabilistic
[Link]:

5
Tier0:Defaultassumptions:singlevalueofresult,nouncertaintycharacterization.

Tier1:Includesqualitativebutsystematicidentificationandcharacterizationof
uncertainties

Tier2:Includesquantitativeevaluationofuncertaintymakinguseofboundingvalues,
intervalanalysis,andsensitivityanalysis.

Tier3:Includesprobabilisticassessmentswithsingleormultipleoutcomedistributions
reflectinguncertaintyandvariability.

Althoughthesetiersweredevelopedforchemicalsafety,theyprovideagoodbasisfor
discussinguncertaintiesinothercontextsaswell,includingcarbonsequestration.

EvenaTier1analysismaybesufficientinsomecases:ifitisclearthatagivenriskisextremely
lowthenitmaybedeemedacceptablewithouttheneedtoquantifyit,whileanextremely
highriskmaybeunacceptable.

Tier3riskassessmentsareusuallyexpectedtobebettermoreinformativeandmoreaccurate
[Link],however,theaddedcomplexityofTier3
[Link]
statisticalmodels(orparametervalues)usedinaTier3analysismaybesohighthatthereis
littlepointinproceedingpastaTier2analysis.EitheraTier2orTier3analysisrequires
attemptingtoidentifyallsignificanthazards,toquantifytheprobabilityofoccurrence,andto
determinewhichhazardscontributethemosttotherisk;assuch,eithercanbeextremely
valuabletodecisionmakers.

Riskmanagersmustconsidertheirroleinreducingorincorporatinguncertaintyaswellasin
[Link](1)investingtocollect,storeand
manageinformation;(2)investingtoimprovetheknowledgebase(i.e.,togeneratenew
knowledge);(3)formalizingprocessesusedtocollect,useandprocessinformation;(4)
formalizingprocessestocalculateandcommunicateuncertainty;and(5)adjustingtherisk
assessmentprocesstomitigatethepracticalimpactofuncertainty.

4.0 Carbon Sequestration Hazards


Nowthatwehavediscussedtheriskassessmentandriskmanagementingeneralterms,we
[Link]
hazardsfromcarbonsequestrationareeconomic,ecological,andhumanhealthrelated,and
havebeenstudiedextensivelybyBensonetal.2007andtheIPCC2005(especiallyChapters5
and6).Ofthehazardsreported,thosepertainingtosequestrationinCaliforniainclude:

1. Injury,death,orecosystemdamagecausedbyexposuretoharmfullevelsofCO2;
2. DamagetogroundwaterresourcesthroughdirectcontaminationwithCO2,or
contaminationbyleachingoftoxicmaterialfromsurroundingrock,duetoacidification
ofwaterbydissolvedCO2;

6
3. Damagetomineralresourcesthrough(a)contaminationofnaturalgasoroilbyCO2,
(b)pressureinducedmigrationofmobilefossilfuelsinawaythatcomplicates
extractionorrendersitinfeasible,(c)sorptionofCO2intocoal,or(d)alterationof
economicallyimportantores,minerals,gravels,etc.,byCO2orbyacidifiedwater;
4. Inducedorenhancedseismicityduetoincreasedfluidpressuredeepunderground;
5. Injuryordeathtoworkersthroughheavymachineryaccidentsandotherindustrial
accidentsnotcoveredinitem1above.
Therisksassociatedwiththehazardslistedabovearenotfixedquantities:theydependonwhat
sitesareusedforsequestration,onthepipelinetechnologiesandoperatingpracticesusedto
detectandfixleaks,[Link]
sequestrationsites,pipelineroutes,andmanagementstrategieswillbeanimportantchallenge
forriskassessorsifwidespreadcarbonsequestrationistobecomeareality.

[Link]
example,CO2pipelinesalreadyexist(mostlytoprovideCO2forenhancedoilrecovery),and
[Link]
[Link]
hasalsolongbeenusedforpollutantsotherthanCO2,[Link]
ofCO2forenhancedoilrecoveryoperationscloselyparallelsinjectionforcarbonsequestration.
Inshort,thereisalreadyafairamountofrealworldexperiencethatcanhelptoquantifythe
riskassociatedwiththehazardsidentifiedabove.

4.1. What Can Go Wrong?


CO2sequestrationwillinvolvelargeconstructionprojects.CO2extractionequipmentwillbe
installedatpowerplants;pipelinesandpumpingstationswillbebuilt;andinjectionwellsand
[Link]
[Link]
wellunderstoodandarenotuniquetocarbonsequestration.

Theprevioussectiondiscussessomeofthehazardsassociatedwithgeologiccarbon
[Link]
[Link],theliteratureonthistopichas
identifiedmechanismsandscenariosforhowCO2transportandstoragecouldcauseharmto
humans,toecosystems,andtoresources;[Link]
considersomeofthesehazardsinmoredetail.:

1. LeakageofCO2frompipelinesorpumpingstationstothesurfaceorshallowsubsurface
couldleadtodamagingorlethaleffectsonpeople,animals,andplantsthrough
asphyxiationortoxicity.
2. LeakageofCO2fromgeologicsequestrationsitestothesurfaceorshallowsubsurfacecould
leadtodamagingorlethaleffectsonpeople,animals,andplantsthroughasphyxiation
ortoxicity:

7
a. GradualleakagecouldallowCO2tobuildupintopographicdepressionsorin
enclosuressuchasbasements.
b. GradualleakageofCO2fromgeologicstoragesitesintolakescouldcreatea
deepwaterlayerofwaterthatissaturatedCO2;overturningofthelakecould
rapidlyreleasethiswatertotheatmosphere.
LeakageofCO2fromgeologicrepositoriesintogroundwatercoulddegradewater
quality,eitherdirectlyorbyacidifyingthewatersothatitleachestoxiccompoundsout
ofrockorsoil.
LeakageofCO2fromgeologicrepositoriesintofossilfuelassetssuchasnaturalgasoroil
depositscouldincreasethecostsofrecoveringorrefiningthoseassetsorcouldrender
themunusable.
LeakageofCO2fromgeologicrepositoriescouldbesolargethatthereislittleorno
reductioninatmosphericCO2concentrationscomparedtothenosequestrationcase.
InjectionofCO2intoporousrockathighpressurecouldinducefracturing,whichcould
(a)increasepermeability,thusincreasingtheleakageriskslistedabove,or(b)activate
otherwisedormantfaults,inducingpotentiallydamagingearthquakes.
Items1and2bothinvolvetoxiceffectsfromCO2,sowebeginbysummarizingtherisksfrom
CO2exposure.

4.1.1. CO2 Dose-Response Relationship


Carbondioxideoccursnaturally,andallanimals(includinghumans)havealongevolutionary
historyofexposuretoseveralhundredpartspermillion(ppm)[Link]
[Link]
toincreaseoverthenexthundredyearsormoreduetocontinuedfossilfuelburning,andis
likelytoexceed600ppmbytheendofthiscentury.

Humans,likeotheranimals,aretolerantofCO2concentrationsmuchhigherthannormal
withoutknownilleffects.CO2concentrationsaboveabout800ppmcanleadtoaperceptionof
staleair,[Link](suchassubmarinesailors)
havebeenexposedto1000ppm(i.e.0.1%CO2)forseveralweeks,againwithnoknowneffects;
however,mostofthesehighlyexposedpeoplehavebeenhealthyyoungmales,andonemight
speculatethatsomesubgroups,suchaspeoplewithdecreasedlungfunction,mightbemore
susceptibletoharmundertheseconditions.

Fromabout1000ppm,to1500ppm,[Link]
breathingratebuthasnootherknownphysiologiceffects.From1500ppmto3000ppm,the
CO2concentrationinbloodincreasesabovenormallevels,makingthebloodacidic(acondition
calledacidosis).Asignificantincreaseinrespiratoryrate,andsomediscomfort,setinatabout
30,000ppm(3%)ofairborneCO2,andabove5%theeffectsbecomesevereandlossof
consciousnesscanoccur.

Bensonetal.(2007)notethatExperimentsconductedonagroupexposedtoupto3%CO2for
manyweeksandshorttermexposurestoevenhigherconcentrationshaveshownthatalleffects
arereversibleexceptforprolongedcoma,theconsequencesofprolongedhypoxia(lackof

8
oxygen),[Link]
atconcentrationsabove25to30%.DeathsfromcatastrophicreleasesofCO2areknownfrom
industrialaccidentsandnaturaldisasters.

Federaloccupationalsafetyandhealthregulationslimitworkplaceexposuretoanaverageof
lessthan5000ppm(0.5%)fora40hourworkweek.

Asforecosystemeffects,Bensonetal.(2007)notethatEcosystemimpactsfromexposureto
[Link]
thaninvertebratestoelevatedCO2,soanysmallscale,shorttermgasleakswouldhaveminimal
[Link],incontrast,couldsuppressrespirationintherootzoneorresultinsoil
acidification,[Link]
thecontrolledexperimentshavefocusedonthemoderateincreasesinCO2concentrationsthat
areexpectedtooccurduetoatmosphericbuildupofCO2fromthecontinueduseoffossilfuels
[Link]
increasesinCO2concentrationsstimulateplantgrowth,whiledecreasingthelossofwater
[Link],treekillsassociatedwithsoilgas
concentrationsintherangeof20to30%CO2havebeenobservedatMammothMountain,
California,[Link]
informationisavailableintheintermediaterangeof2to30%.Inaddition,informationonthe
toleranceofaquaticecosystemstoshortterm,catastrophicreleaseswasnotfoundandmay
needtoberesearched.

4.1.2. Hazard 1: Exposure Due to Pipeline Leaks


CO2frompowerplantsorotherindustrialoperationsislikelytobetransportedtostoragesites
viapipelines.AbovegroundornearsurfaceCO2pipelinesprovidethemostdirectrouteto
harmfulhumanexposureortodeleteriousimpactsonanimalsandplantsbyproducingalocal
highconcentrationofCO2andgeneratingexposuressufficienttoharmorkillpeople,plantsor
[Link](2003)formoreinformationanddiscussion.

Whileanimportantrisk,precautionsthatarecommonforexistingpipelinesfordistributing
materialsthatarefarmoredangerouscanbetakentominimizethelikelihoodofamajor
[Link],pipelinedistributionsystems,includingCO2pipelines,haveafairly
goodsafetyrecord.LongdistanceCO2pipelinesintheU.S.totalabout2600kmandproduced
noinjuriesorfatalitiesoverathirteenyearperiodstudiedbyGaleandDavidson(2002).
Geologiccarbonsequestrationwouldrequirebuildingmanymorepipelines,someofwhich
wouldlikelypassthroughorneardenselypopulatedareassincetheymustoriginateatpower
stations,sopasthistorywithCO2pipelinesdoesnotguaranteethatfuturepipelineswillbe
equallysafe.

NaturalgaspipelinesareofcoursedifferentfromCO2pipelinesinseveralsignificantways,the
[Link]
295,000milesofnaturalgastransmissionpipelinesintheU.S.,andabout1.4millionmilesof
[Link]
Administration,duringthe10yearperiodfrom19942003(inclusive),795naturalgaspipeline

9
accidentsresultedin26fatalities,97injuries,and$[Link]
fatalitiesandinjurieswereduetofiresorexplosionsassociatedwithpipelineleaks,almosta
[Link],20%ofincidentswereduetocorrosion.
SinceCO2,inthepresenceofelevatedhumidity,ismorecorrosivethannaturalgas,corrosion
[Link]
usecarbonmanganesesteel,whichisnotcorrodedbyCO2ifhumidityinthepipelineislow,
[Link]
expensive,soitwilllikelybeeconomicallyimportanttodrytheCO2beforetransport,toavoid
theneedforstainlesssteel.

PipelinedamagemayoccurmorefrequentlyinCaliforniathanelsewherebecauseofseismicity.
Outrightbreakageofpipelinesduringearthquakes(orotherlandmovementssuchas
landslides)[Link],gradual
shiftsinthegroundmaycausestressesthatleadtosmallleaks.

[Link]
concentrationofCO2willbedeterminedbythecompetitionbetweentheratethatCO2leaks
fromthepipelineandentersthedepression,andtheratethatCO2escapesthedepressedarea
[Link]
regularly,[Link]
applytoothertypesofdensegasesinpipelines,soanalysisofthisriskshouldinclude
examinationofexistingdataonotherpipelines.

AlargepipelineleakresultingfromamajorrupturewouldreleasealargequantityofCO2very
[Link],endangeringpeople
[Link]
pipelinemonitoring(andperhapsimmediatelyapparenttopeopleinthevicinityaswell).As
withtheriskofasmallleak,theriskofalargeleakisnotuniquetoCO2,sodataonothertypes
ofpipelinescanprovideusefulquantitativeinformationonthestatisticaldistributionofleak
sizesandfrequenciesthatcanbeexpected.

StepscanbetakentominimizerisksfromCO2pipelines(asfromanyhazardousmaterial
pipelines).Stepsinclude:

1. Sitepipelinesawayfrompopulousareaswhenpossible;
2. Avoidrunningpipelinesnearhomesinsheltered,populatedvalleyswhereleakingCO2
couldaccumulatetodangerouslevels;
3. Monitorpipelinesregularlyforcorrosion;
4. Monitorconstantlyforleaks;
5. Installsafetyvalvestoshutoffthepipelineintheeventofalargeleak;
6. ConsideraddingodoranttoCO2,asisdonewithnaturalgas,toallowpeopletonotice
smallleaks.WeareunawareofstudiesonthecostsoreffectivenessofodorantsforCO2;
givenCO2slowtoxicityitisquestionablewhetherthisstepwouldbeworthwhilein

10
[Link],suchaspipelinesthatnecessarilypass
throughpopulousareas.

4.1.3. Hazard 2: Exposure Due to Leakage from Geological Storage

Risk from slow, steady discharge


ReleasesofCO2thataremuchtoosmalltocausewidespreaddeathorinjurycanstillcause
acutelocalproblems,[Link],animal,andplantfatalitiesfromCO2
[Link],
Californiaprovidesagoodillustration.

MammothMountainisayoungvolcano.In1990,followingaseriesofsmallearthquakesthe
previousyear,CO2beganleakingupwardsalongfaultsfromanaturalsubterraneanreservoirof
CO2.TheamountofCO2leakagehasbeenestimatedatabout300tonsperdayfortheentire
faultsystem,whichcoversseveralsquaremiles,buttheleaksareconcentratedincertainareas
thatthereforehavelocallyhighCO2concentrations.ThehighconcentrationofCO2insoilsin
someareashaskilledover100acresoftrees,andtheairborneconcentrationsarehighenoughto
[Link]
werekilledin2006whentheyfellintoadepressioninthesnowthatcontainedaveryhigh
concentrationofCO2.

AnotherinstructiveexampleofCO2leakagetothesurfaceisprovidedbytheCrystalGeyser
[Link],withoutbeing
properlyplugged,[Link]
likeageysereverydayortwo,andcanejectupto40tonnesofCO2mixedwithwaterduringa
[Link],anddoesnothavedepressionsthat
[Link],
evenwhenstandingunderthetenfoothighjetofcarbonatedwaterejectedfromthegeyser.
However,calculations(Bogenetal.2006)suggestthatinsomeunusualweatherconditions,CO2
concentrationsveryclosetothegroundcouldreachlethallevels,therebyinjuringorkilling
smallanimalsorpotentiallyproneanimalsorpeople(e.g.,campers).

Theexamplesdiscussedaboveconcernleakagetotheopenair,butleakagedirectlyinto
[Link],
forexample,couldleadtoahighconcentrationofCO2;infact,sincewindwouldnotbeableto
causemixingthatwoulddilutetheCO2,theconcentrationinabasementwouldbehigherthan
wouldresultfromthesameleakagerateintoanoutdoordepression.

AstheMammothMountainandCrystalGeyserexamplesindicate,leakagecanoccurvia
naturallyoccurringfaultsandfractures,[Link]
thoughttopresentthemostimportantriskofleakagefromgeologiccarbonsequestrationsites,
since(ifnotproperlyplugged)theycanprovideaverylowresistancepathwayfromdeep
[Link],abandonedwellsarelikelytobepresentinsomeofthe
geologicformationsthatareattractiveforcarbonsequestration,sincesomeofthesamegeologic

11
featuresthatmakeasitealikelylocationtofindnaturalgasoroilalsomakeitattractivefor
[Link]
becausetheyhavealreadyproventobeabletoretainfluidsunderpressureformillionsof
years.

Acrudecalculationshowsthatriskofacuteinjuryduetoslowleakagefromageologic
[Link]
a1000MWcoalfiredpowerplant,for10,000days(about27years).Atarateof30,000tonnes
perday,thetotalamountofCO2pumpedundergroundis300,000,[Link]
leaksoutuniformlyoveraperiodof300,000days(820years),thiscorrespondstoaleakagerate
of1000tonnesperday,oraboutthreetimestheestimatedemissionsatMammothMountain.
Thiscalculationassumes,unrealistically,thatallofthegasleaksout,withnoneofittrappedfor
alongtimeingeologicformationsorgroundwater,anditignoresthefactthattheleakagerate
[Link],itsuggeststhatifthe
geologicsequestrationfailssothatasubstantialfractionofthesequesteredCO2leakstothe
surfacewithinafewhundredyears,therateofleakagetothesurfacecouldbehighenoughto
causeseverelocalimpacts,includingpotentiallossoflife.

Possibleactionstoreducerisksfromleakageinclude:

1. SelectsequestrationreservoirsitesthatarelikelytoretainmostoftheirCO2foratleast
thousandsofyears,notjusthundreds.
2. Locateandplugabandonedboreholes,andmonitorthemforleakage.
3. Selectsitesthatarenotnearlargepopulationconcentrations.
4. Monitorsitesforleakageandhaltoperations,orreducethetotalamountofCO2
sequestered,ifanunacceptablyhighleakagerateisdetected.
Risk from a fast, large discharge
AlthoughnaturalundergroundCO2reservoirsexistthroughouttheworldinvolcanicallyactive
areas,[Link]
scalefatalitiesfromsuchreleasesareextremelyrare,[Link]
famousexample,whichisthemostdamagingonrecord.

In1986,over1700villagersand3500cattlelivingnearLakeNyosinCameroonwerekilled
whenthelakesuddenlyreleasedabout1.4milliontonnesofCO2(1tonne=1metricton=1000
Kg,approximatelyequalto1ton).Forcomparison,a1000MWcoalfiredpowerplantemits
about30,000tonnesofCO2perday;theLakeNyosreleaserepresentedabout50daysof
emissionsfromalargepowerplant.

TheLakeNyoseventoccurredasfollows.CO2fromvolcanicactivityhadaccumulatedfor
[Link],theCO2
remainedinsolution([Link]),butwaterthatmovedupwardsbyevenasmall
amountexperiencedlowerpressure,sothatCO2cameoutofsolutionandformedbubbles,just
[Link],
drawingmoreofthedeep,saturatedlakewaterupwiththemandthuscontinuingtherelease.

12
CO2isheavierthanair.TheCO2floweddownthevalleybelowthelake,smotheringseveral
villages.

Theeventthattriggeredtheinitialupwardmovementofsaturatedwaterisnotknown,butmay
[Link]
saturation,evenasmalldisturbancecantriggerarelease,andfuturereleasesatLakeNyosare
inevitableunlessmitigationisperformed:thelakestillcontainsanestimated300,000tonnesof
CO2,andnatural(volcanic)CO2entersthelakeatanestimated5000tonnesperyear.

TheCO2releaserateatLakeNyos,between1.2and1.6milliontonnesofCO2releasedtotheair
withinhours,wasvastlyhigherthancouldoccurbydirectleakagefromageologic
sequestrationsitetotheearthssurface:thelakehadaccumulatedCO2thatleakedfrom
[Link]
leakagefromageologicsequestrationsiteifageologicCO2sourceleaksintoalakeunder
[Link]:(1)thesequestrationreservoirwouldhavetofail,
sothatCO2leaksatafairlyrapidrateintoadeepportionofthelake,throughafractureorwell
thatconnectstotheundergroundsource,(2)thelakeisverticallystratifiedsothatdeepwater
doesnotcirculatetothesurfaceandtherebydissipateitsCO2asquicklyasitaccumulates,and
(3)thelakeisdeepenoughthataverylargeamountofCO2canaccumulatebeforea
[Link](4)
thereisasubstantialhumanpopulationnearthelake,nearorbelowthelakessurfaceelevation.

GiventhespecialconditionsthatarerequiredforaLakeNyostypeevent,theriskofsuchan
[Link]
example,thereareonlythreeknownsitesintheworldwheredeeplakewaterissaturatedwith
CO2fromnaturalsources.

SeveralstepscanbetakentominimizethechanceofaLakeNyostypeevent:

1. Selectsitesthat,eveniftheyleak,[Link]
thelaketothegeologicreservoir,thepresenceoffaultsunderthelake,andthedepthof
thelakeshouldallbetakenintoaccount.
2. Selectsitesthatarenotnearlargepopulationconcentrations.
3. Ifasequestrationsiteislocatednearalarge,deeplakeintowhichleakageispossible,
occasionalmonitoringoftheCO2concentrationdeepinthelakeshouldbeperformed.
Mitigationispossible:aninexpensive,selfperpetuatingsystemhasbeenoperatingat
LakeNyossince2001,forexample.
4.1.4. Hazard 3: Leakage from Geological Storage to Groundwater
AfractionoftheCO2injectedintothegroundwillreadilybedissolvedintowater,including
[Link],dissolutionofCO2
intowaterisdesirable,andsomesequestrationprojects(includingtheSleipnerprojectinthe
NorthSea)deliberatelyinjectCO2intodeepsaline(saltwater)reservoirs.TheCO2saturated
brineisexpectedtobecomedenserthanthesurroundingunsaturatedbrineandwilltherefore
sink,[Link]

13
formationsprobablyexceeds1000GigatonnesofCO2andmayexceed10000Gt,andisprobably
muchlargerthanthestoragecapacityofdepletedoilandgasfields.

Althoughoftendesirable,[Link]
beacidified,whichmayallowittodegradegeologicformationswhichmaytoxiccompounds
[Link],water
contaminatedwithtoxinsorwithCO2couldmigrateandcontaminategroundwateraquifersor
otherresources.

Bensonetal.(2007)notethatIndustrialliquidwastedisposalbydeepwellinjectionwas
[Link],ninebilliongallonsper
yearofhazardous,industrialandmunicipalwastesareinjectedinto485ClassIwells.In1987,
thecostofliquidhazardouswastedisposalrangedfrom$49to$207/[Link]
wasmixed,withmanyexamplesofwellfailuresandcontaminationofdrinkingwateraquifers.
Failureswereattributedto(1)poorcharacterizationoftheconfiningunits;(2)improperwell
completiontechniques;(3)useofwellconstructionmaterialsthatwereincompatiblewiththe
wastestreamsand,consequently,corroded;(4)inconsistentorinadequatemonitoring;and(5)
[Link]
monitoring,progressivelymorestringentregulationswereputinplacetomakethepracticeof
industrialwastedisposalbyliquidinjectionsafer.By1988,thecurrentsetofregulationswas
[Link]
reported.

ContaminationofdrinkingwaterwithCO2,orwithmetalsorchemicalsleachingoutofrock
duetoCO2acidificationofthewater,couldbeverycostlyiftheaffectedaquiferisusedbyalot
[Link]:onceanaquiferis
contaminated,itwillremainso.

[Link],experiencewithundergrounddisposalofliquid
chemicalsprovidesusefulinformationabouttheabilitytoassessgeologicformationsfor
sequestrationpotential,[Link],someoftheinformationisnot
perfectlyapplicabletoCO2because(1)thequantityofCO2thatwouldbeinjectedinto
sequestrationsitesdwarfstheamountoftoxicmaterialinjectedintowastestoragesites;and(2)
CO2isbuoyant,whereasmosttoxicmaterialinjectedintowastewellsisapproximatelyneutral.
Ontheotherhand,(3)CO2isfarlesstoxicthanmostmaterialsthatareinjectedforhazardous
wastedisposal.

Severalstepscanbetakentominimizethechanceofleakagetogroundwater:

1. Selectsitesthatarefarfromaquifersthatareormayinthefuturebeusedforpotable
water.
2. Selectsitesthat,eveniftheyleak,[Link]
conductivityofthesurroundinggeologicformations,theproximityofthegroundwater,
andthepresenceoffaultsshouldallbetakenintoaccount.

14
3. Ifasequestrationsiteislocatednearanimportantgroundwateraquifer,occasional
monitoringoftheCO2concentrationdeepintheaquifershouldbeperformed.
4.1.5. Hazard 4: Leakage from Geological Storage to Fossil Fuel Assets
Muchlikehazardsofleakagefromgeologicalstoragetogroundwater,undergroundinjectionof
CO2atpressuressubstantiallyhigherthanformationpressurescanleadtoseepagetofossilfuel
depositsalongfaults,fissures,[Link],
CO2contaminationmaydecreasethevalueofthefossilfuelsowingtoexcessivecostsfor
removing,orseparating,CO2beforethefossilfuelcanbetransported.

Humanhazardsandrisksarelargelysecondary,incurredmostlyfromthestepstakento
[Link],capture,storage,andre
sequestrationeachcreatehazardstohumanexposureandaredescribedintheabovesections.

Theprobabilityofleakagetoafossilfuelassetislikelytobesimilartotheprobabilityofleakage
[Link]
faults,orunknownandunsealedwellsinthevicinityofthestoragesiteandthefuelasset.

Possibleactionstoreducerisksfromleakagetofossilfuelsinclude:

1. SelectsequestrationreservoirsitesthatarelikelytoretainmostoftheirCO2foratleast
thousandsofyears,notjusthundreds.
2. Selectsitesthatarenotnearfossilfuelsassets.
3. Monitorsitesforrapidleakage([Link])andhalt
operations,orreducethetotalamountofCO2sequestered,ifrapidleakageisdetected.
4.1.6. Hazard 5: Leakage Eliminates Benefits of Geological Storage
Leakage,inadditiontoenablingthehazardsdiscussedintheprevioussubsections,alsoreturns
carbonintotheatmosphere.SincethewholepointofcarbonsequestrationistopreventCO2
fromenteringtheatmosphereforhundredsorthousandsofyears,leakageatamuchfasterrate
[Link],ifthefractionofsequesteredCO2that
leakswithinafewhundredyearsisveryhigh(morethan70%orso)thensequestrationcould
actuallybeworsethansimplyemittingtheCO2totheatmosphereinthefirstplace:additional
CO2isproducedingeneratingtheenergyneededforsequestration(forremovalofCO2fromthe
wastegasstream,forpipelinetransport,andforpumpingunderground),sothetotalamountof
CO2generatedishigherifsequestrationisperformedthanifitisnot.

Inadequatelysealedboreholes(fromfossilfuelextractionorexploration)arethoughtbethe
[Link]
[Link]
adequatelysealed,andadditionalworkcanbeperformedifnecessarytosealthembetter.

4.1.7. Hazard 6: Induced Fracturing or Seismicity


GeologiccarbonsequestrationrequiresinjectinglargequantitiesoffluidsupercriticalCO2
[Link]
rockislesslikelytofracturethanislowporosityrock,sinceporousrockwillallowmorefluid

15
[Link]
aretheinjectionrateandthestrengthoftherock.

[Link]
rockformationsthatareintendedtoconfinetheCO2typicallytheformationsabovethe
injectionsitethencontainmentmaybelostandCO2mayescapetocontaminategroundwater,
[Link],instead,fracturingoccursintheformationsthatareintendedto
storetheCO2,thenfracturingmaybeirrelevant,aslongastheconfiningformationsremain
intact.

Anadditionalhazardisinducedseismicity:[Link]
Nicholson(1987)notedthatinjectionusuallytriggersactivityinaseismicallyunstablearea,
[Link]
pressurizedfluidsthemselvesarenotlargeonageologicscale,andcannotprovideenough
[Link],however,triggerthereleaseof
energyalreadystoredinafault.

SminchakandGupta(2002)saythatWhilemostseismiceventstriggeredbydeepwell
injectionaretoosmalltobenoticed,moderateearthquakeshaveoccurredduetoinjection
[Link],twoearthquakeswithRichtermagnitudeof5.1and5.2weretriggeredin
Denver,Colorado,in1966.In2007ageothermalprojectinBasel,Switzerland,wasputonhold
(andcouldpossiblybecancelled)aftertwosmallearthquakes(Richtermagnitudes3.1and3.4)
werecausedbyinjectionofwaterintohotrocksatadepthof5km.

Possibleactionstoreducerisksfrominducedfracturingorseismicityare:

1. Choosesequestrationsitestoavoidformationsorlocationsthatarepronetofractureor
earthquakes.
2. Setinjectionratessothatpressuresremainbelowthefracturepressureofsurrounding
rocks.
3. Monitorforseismicactivityandreduceinjectionratesiftheactivityistooextreme.
Somelevelofinducedseismicitymaybedeemedtolerablebydecisionmakers,butgaining
[Link],theoccasionalearthquakeofRichter
magnitude2.5wouldcausenodamageandindeedwouldbeunnoticedbymanypeople,but
mightstillprovepsychologicallyunsettlingtomanypeople.

5.0 Discussion
Geologiccarbonsequestrationpresentstheopportunitytogreatlyreducetherateofinjectionof
CO2intotheatmosphere,[Link]
carbonsequestrationalsoentailsrisk,andtheriskisunknownandmaypossiblybelarge.

[Link]
shutoffvalves;sequestrationsitescanbechosenthatareawayfromhighlypopulatedareas,
and/orareknowntohavecontainednaturallyoccurringnaturalgasforalongtime;andsoon.

16
[Link]
tomographymethodstocharacterizelikelyleakagepathways;computermodelscanbe
improvedtocapturepreviouslyignoredphenomenaortoincorporatehigherspatialresolution;
datafromsequestrationsitesalreadyinusecanbeusedtobetterquantifygeologicparameters
andotherquantities.

[Link],quantifyingrisk
[Link]
[Link]
informationcoulddiscoverpreviouslyunknownproblems,suchasfaultsorfractures,thus
[Link]
coulddemonstratethattherearefewfaultsorfractures,andconfirmthatthesiteisacceptable.
Theriskhasntchanged,buttheknowledgeoftheriskhaschanged,andthiscanaffect
decisions.

Predictingthefuturecourseofacarbonsequestrationsiteisparticularlychallengingbecause
thefuturestretchesforsuchalongway:tobeeffectiveatlimitingclimatechange,studies
suggestthatsequestrationsiteshavetoretainmostoftheirCO2foratleastseveralhundredsof
years,[Link]
timescales,butverylongcomparedtothetimescalesoverwhichdeepsubterraneanphenomena
havebeenmonitoredorpredicted.

[Link]
technologiesandmethodsimprove,computermodelsimproveinbothtemporalandspatial
resolutionandintheirabilitytohandlenewphenomena,geophysicalunderstandingincreases,
andeveryyearthatpassesprovidesanotheryearofdatafromexistingcarbonsequestration
[Link],theinformationneededtomakedecisionsaboutsiteacceptabilitygetsbetter
withtimeandwithexperience.

Thesituationcallsforadaptivedecisionmaking:

Startwithsites,technologies,andactionsforwhichtheriskisbelievedtobeacceptable
now,[Link],[Link]
thisprinciplemayimplylimitedinitialdeploymentofgeologiccarbonsequestration.
Insomecases,theinformationthatcanbegainedfromanaction,orfromusingacertain
site,maybeanimportantcriteriontoconsider,inadditiontotheprobabilityofsuccess.
Iftwositesortechnologiesarejudgedtobeacceptableintermsofriskandtotalcost,but
onewouldprovideinformationthattheotherwouldnot,theonethatprovidesnew
[Link],eachsequestrationsiteis
notjustaplacetodiscardCO2,itisalsoanexperimentthatwillprovidevaluabledata
foruseinfuturesequestrationefforts.

17
6.0 References
Benson,S.M.,[Link],[Link],[Link],[Link]
[Link]
BerkeleyNationalLaboratoryreportLBNL51170.

Berger,[Link],NewYork.

BogenK.T.,[Link],[Link],[Link]/GISModelfor
[Link]
[Link]
SymposiumonSiteCharacterizationforCO2GeologicalStorage,BerkeleyCalifornia,
March2006.

Chernoff,H.,[Link],[Link]
byDover,NewYork,1986.

Gale,J.,[Link].TransmissionofCO2:[Link]:Sixth
InternationalConferenceonGreenhouseGasControlTechnologies,GaleJandKayaY,
[Link],p.517522,2003.

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC).2005.IPCCSpecialReportonCO2Capture
andStorage.

Kammen,D.M.,[Link]?:ExploringEnvironmental,
Health,[Link],
Princeton,[Link],P.,[Link],[Link]
Uncertainty:[Link],NewYork.

Kaplan,S.,[Link].1(1):1127.

Lindley,[Link],NewYork.

Ludwig,D,[Link],[Link],resourceexploitation,and
conservation:Lessonslearnedfromhistory.Science260:[Link].

McKone,[Link]:TheMerging
ofScience,Judgment,andValues.FoodControl7(2):6976.

NationalResearchCouncil(NRC).[Link]
AcademyPress,WashingtonD.C.

NationalResearchCouncil(NRC),[Link]:InformingDecisionsinaDemocratic
[Link],WashingtonD.C.

Ruckelshaus,[Link],Risk,andPublicPolicy.Science221:10261028.

SocietyforRiskAnalysis(SRA)[Link]/resources_glossary.php.

18
SminchakJ.,[Link],[Link],[Link]
[Link].

Wesson,R.L.,[Link].
[Link].OpenFileReport87331.

19

Common questions

Powered by AI

The primary risks associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration include potential leakage of CO2 from storage sites, exposure to harmful levels of CO2, and contamination of groundwater. Risk assessment helps identify these risks and involves evaluating their likelihood and consequences . It includes hazard assessment to define potential accident or failure sequences, and exposure assessment to estimate environmental concentrations and human exposure levels . Effective risk assessment also requires addressing uncertainties related to both aleatory (random variations) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) factors to appropriately characterize risk .

Monitoring practices are crucial for detecting and responding to CO2 leaks. Regular inspections for pipeline corrosion and leaks, installation of safety valves, and consideration of odorants for CO2 detection can significantly reduce risks . Moreover, emerging monitoring technologies can provide real-time data to quickly detect anomalies, allowing for immediate intervention, thus minimizing environmental and human exposure risks.

The Lake Nyos disaster, where a sudden CO2 release caused mass fatalities, highlights the need for thorough geological assessments and monitoring near large, deep water bodies that could trap CO2 . Implementing monitoring systems to detect CO2 buildup, ensuring containment strategies account for lake proximity and depth, and selecting sites away from populous areas are critical lessons for current CO2 sequestration risk management practices.

Historical examples of CO2 leakage hazards include the case of Mammoth Mountain, where CO2 leakage began following small earthquakes, leading to locally high concentrations and fatalities due to asphyxiation . Another example is the Crystal Geyser in Utah, where an abandoned oil exploration shaft releases CO2 eruptions, though no human harm has been reported . These examples highlight that leakage can occur via natural faults or manmade boreholes, presenting risks of environmental and human harm.

Economic analyses like cost-effectiveness analyses help compare risk reduction per unit cost among different strategies, ensuring that the most efficient options are chosen . Risk-benefit analyses compare the added risks of an activity against the benefits, often economic, it provides to society. These analyses help policymakers balance the financial implications of risk reduction measures against potential societal gains, thus informing decisions on investments and regulatory strategies in CO2 sequestration projects.

Mitigation strategies to minimize CO2 leakage include selecting sequestration sites likely to retain CO2 for extended periods, locating and properly plugging abandoned boreholes, and choosing sites away from large population centers. Regular monitoring for leaks, implementing rapid response mechanisms, and adjusting operations if high leakage is detected are also vital strategies . Additionally, introducing alarm systems and continuous inspections can preemptively address potential leaks.

Groundwater acidification from CO2 dissolution increases water acidity, which can degrade geologic formations, potentially releasing toxic compounds into groundwater. Acidified water is unsuitable for drinking and can migrate, contaminating aquifers or other resources . While dissolution into saline formations can be beneficial by permanently trapping CO2, it poses risks if acidic water affects potable groundwater or ecosystems.

Hazard identification is the process of identifying all possible hazards related to CO2 sequestration without yet focusing on their likelihood or extent of damage. Risk characterization follows, involving a detailed assessment of each hazard to quantify the risk, which includes identifying scenarios where hazards may have negative effects, evaluating the consequences of these scenarios, and assessing uncertainties in these assessments . Together, these steps form a comprehensive understanding of how sequestration risks might manifest and helps in planning risk management strategies.

Uncertainty in risk assessment of CO2 sequestration projects arises from variability in natural processes (aleatory uncertainty) and gaps in scientific knowledge (epistemic uncertainty). Challenges include accurately characterizing complex exposure pathways, extrapolating dose-response relationships from high to low exposures, and accounting for inter-individual susceptibility differences . Uncertainties make it difficult to precisely quantify likelihood and magnitude of risks, thus complicating the decision-making process for managing and mitigating risks.

CO2 sequestration sites can be compared to natural reservoirs, like those in oil and gas fields, which have demonstrated their ability to contain fluids over geological timescales . This comparison is crucial in site selection, as it highlights the need for geological characteristics similar to those of natural reservoirs to ensure long-term containment. Implications include preferential selection of sites with proven seal integrity and lower risks of leakage, as well as understanding natural fault dynamics.

You might also like