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Binomial Probability Examples and Solutions

The document contains 4 examples that calculate probabilities related to binomial distributions. Each example provides the parameters of the binomial distribution, interprets them in the given context, and calculates various probabilities as requested. The examples cover calculating individual probabilities, expected values, and compound probabilities over multiple trials.

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Bhooveeshay Toolseeram
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84 views2 pages

Binomial Probability Examples and Solutions

The document contains 4 examples that calculate probabilities related to binomial distributions. Each example provides the parameters of the binomial distribution, interprets them in the given context, and calculates various probabilities as requested. The examples cover calculating individual probabilities, expected values, and compound probabilities over multiple trials.

Uploaded by

Bhooveeshay Toolseeram
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Example

X ~ B(10, 0.4).
Find the following probabilities:
(i) P(X = 1)
(ii) P(X = 0)
(iii) P(X 2)

Solution
X ~ B(10, 0.4). So: n = 10, p = 0.4, q = 0.6

(i) P(X = 1) 10 C1 0.41 0.69


10 0.41 0.69
0.0403 (3 s.f.)

(ii) P(X = 0) 10 C0 0.40 0.610


11 0.610
0.00605 (3 s.f.)

(iii) P(X 2) 1 P( X 0) P( X 1)
1 (0.0403 0.00605)
0.954 (3 s.f.)
Example
Using recent data provided by the low-cost airline Brianair, the probability of a flight
arriving on time is estimated to be 0.9.
On four different occasions I am taking a flight with Brianair.
(i) What is the probability that I arrive on time on all four flights?
(ii) What is the probability that I arrive on time on exactly two occasions?
(iii) What is the probability that I arrive on time on at least one occasion?

Solution
Let X be the number of times a flight is on time.
n = 4, p = 0.9, q = 0.1 so X ~ B(4, 0.9).

(i) P(all four flights arrive on time) = P(X = 4) 4 C4 0.94 0.10


1 0.94 1
0.656 (3 s.f.)
(ii) P(exactly two flights arrive on time) = P(X = 2) 4 C2 0.92 0.12
6 0.92 0.12
0.0486 (3 s.f.)

(iii) P(at least one flight arrives on time) = P(X 1) = 1 P(X = 0)


P(X = 0) 4 C0 0.90 0.14
11 0.14
0.0001
P(X 1) 1 P( X 0)
1 0.0001
0.9999
Example
Using recent data provided by the low-cost airline Lyingair, the probability of a flight
arriving on time is estimated to be 0.7.
Every week I take four flights with Lyingair.
(i) Find the expectation of the number of times that I will be on time.
(ii) In a particular week, what is the probability that I arrive at my destination on
time for all 4 flights?
(iii) What is the probability that in 3 weeks of travelling, exactly one of the weeks
has at least one late arrival?
(iv) What is the probability that in 3 weeks of travelling, at least one of the weeks
has at least one late arrival?

Solution
Let X be the number of times in a particular week that a flight is on time.
n = 4, p = 0.7, q = 0.3
X ~ (4, 0.7).
(i) What is the expected value?
Expected value = np = 4 x 0.7 = 2.8

(ii) P(X = 4) 4 C4 0.7 4 0.30


1 0.74 1
0.2401

(iii) The probability that in one week all the flights are on time is 0.2401 from (ii).
Let Y be the number of weeks that all flights on time.
Y is binomial with n = 3 and p = 0.2401
Y ~B( 3, 0.2401).
Probability that in 3 weeks of travelling one of the weeks has at least one
late arrival is P(Y = 2).

P(Y = 2) 3 C2 0.24012 0.75991


0.131 (3 s.f.)

(iv) First find the probability that there are no late arrivals for any of the weeks, i.e.
the probability that Y = 3.
P(Y = 3) 3 C3 0.24013 0.75990
0.0138 (3 s.f.)

The probability that in 3 weeks of travelling at least one of the weeks has at
least one late arrival = 1 0.0138 = 0.986 (3 s.f.)

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