HSL PCG Currency Insight-Weekly

26 December, 2016
 WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET WRAP UP
Rupee Near One Week High; Expected to Consolidate in Range
Currency The Indian rupee settle at 67.83 from previous weeks 67.77 on stronger
dollar against major currencies. The benchmark 10-year government bond
yield closed at 6.544% compared to Thursday's close of 6.529%.
Currency Prev. %
Last Chg. In a significant breakthrough that augurs well for the implementation of the
(Spot) Close Chg.
goods and services tax (GST), both states and the Centre cleared the model
DXY Index 103.0100 102.9500 0.0600 0.1%
GST law on Thursday in the seventh GST council meeting chaired by finance
EURUSD 1.0456 1.0451 0.0005 0.0% minister Arun Jaitley. All eyes will now be on the more contentious issue of
cross-empowerment to scrutinize assesses to be taken up on Friday.
GBPUSD 1.2282 1.2496 -0.0214 -1.7%
The weekly forex reserve data indicated fall of $2.38 billion to $360.60
USDJPY 117.3300 117.9300 -0.6000 -0.5%
billion in the week ended December 16. The decline was primarily due to
USDINR 67.8250 67.7713 0.0537 0.1% revaluation and depreciation of currencies such as the euro and outflow of
EURINR 70.8690 70.8253 0.0437 0.1%
foreign investor funds as the US Federal Reserves decision to hike rates by
25 basis points prompted a lot of investors to cut exposure to emerging
GBPINR 83.1775 84.3747 -1.1972 -1.4% markets.
JPYINR 57.7800 57.3500 0.4300 0.7% Technically, USDINR has crossed the near term resistance and forming
DGCX USDINR 67.8472 67.8794 -0.0322 0.0% higher top higher bottom indicating overall bullish bias. The near term
resistance for the pair would be at 68.10 and 68.36 and find support around
67.50.
RBI Reference Rate Currency Market Quiets on Truncated Week
Last week the US economy posted better than expected housing market
Prev. % data and upward revisions to third quarter GDP growth. However, the
Currency Last Chg.
Close Chg.
trading activity was missing amid holiday thin volume with dollar index
USDINR 67.9117 67.7777 0.1340 0.2% closed near 103 level, just few points away from recent high of 103.65.
EURINR 70.9474 70.7531 0.1943 0.3% The dollar dipped against the yen early trade today, edging lower down
after U.S. Treasury yields dipped on mixed economic data. The yield pulled
GBPINR 83.4839 84.2341 -0.7502 -0.9%
back from 27-month peaks scaled mid-month following Friday's release of
JPYINR 57.8800 57.3800 0.5000 0.9% U.S. economic indicators that included strong housing and consumer
confidence data but also numbers that pointed to slower household income.
The greenback was down 0.2 percent at 117.300 yen. The euro was steady
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield at $1.0457.
Dollar has gained 5% against a basket of currencies since Donald Trump's
Instrument Last
Prev.
Chg.
% U.S. presidential victory on Nov. 8. The dollar will likely resume its recent
Close Chg. rally when the new year begins. Trading will subdued with many key
697GS2026 6.5440 6.5060 0.0380 0.6% markets witness holiday thin week.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 WEEK AHEAD
This week remains light from economic data as we see truncated week on back of new year holiday. Trading activity likely to
remain light on year end settlement.
Monday, Dec. 26
U.S. and European markets are closed in observance of the Christmas Day holiday.
CENTRAL BANKS: Bank of Japan releases minutes of the November policy decision meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko
Kuroda will give a speech at the Keidanren business lobby.
Tuesday, Dec. 27
ECONOMY: U.S. S&P Core Logic 20-city national home-price indexes (Oct.), U.S. consumer confidence (Dec.), Richmond Fed
manufacturing (Dec.), Dallas Fed manufacturing (Dec)., Japan CPI (Nov.), China industrial profits (Nov.).
Wednesday, Dec. 28
ECONOMY: U.S. MBA mortgage applications (weekly), U.S. pending home sales (Nov.), Japan industrial output (Nov.), Japan
retail sales (Nov.)
Thursday, Dec. 29
Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from December meeting.
ECONOMY: U.S. jobless claims (weekly), U.S. advance merchandise trade deficit (Nov.), wholesale and retail inventories (Nov.),
U.S. Bloomberg consumer comfort (weekly), U.K. Nationwide house prices (Dec.)
Friday, Dec. 30
ECONOMY: U.S. Chicago PMI (Dec.).

WEEKLY PRICE - VOLUME - OI (PVO)

PREV. OPEN PREV. PREV.
WKLY WKLY OI VOLUME WKLY VOL.
CURRENCY PAIR CLOSE WEEK INTEREST WEEK WEEK
% CHG. % CHG. (VOL.) % CHG.
CLOSE (OI) OI VOL.
NSE INRUSD Future Dec16 67.8175 67.8050 0.0% 1944800 1808945 7.5% 789043 655620 20.4%
NSE EURINR Future Dec16 70.9400 70.9900 -0.1% 26146 37054 -29.4% 26180 47318 -44.7%
NSE GBPINR Future Dec16 83.2350 84.4700 -1.5% 26794 28012 -4.3% 45701 38011 20.2%
NSE JPYINR Future Dec16 57.8400 57.4925 0.6% 36206 43908 -17.5% 9544 25762 -63.0%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT USDINR
USDINR Dec. Future CMP 67.82

Currency
Weekly DAILY CHART
Pivot

Resistance 2 68.24
Resistance 1 68.03
Pivot 67.89
Support 1 67.68
Support 2 67.53

Hold Longs in USDINR Dec Fut.

with SL of 67.50.
Dollar Index has broken out on
the medium to long term charts.
It has reached a level of 103 and
sustaining around that.
Rise in the dollar index would also
have negative impact on rupee
against the dollar. Therefore,
USDINR pair is expected to
remain firm.
RSI has also exited the oversold
zone, which indicates that there is
high probability of going up than
going down for the pair.
Resistance levels are placed at
68.18 and 68.36, while Support
for the pair is seen at 67.50 odd
levels.
We advise holding longs in
USDINR Dec Fut. for the Targets
of 68.10 and 68.36, keeping SL at
67.50.
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT EURINR
EURINR Dec. Future CMP 70.94
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 71.62
Resistance 1 71.28
Pivot 70.92
Support 1 70.58
Support 2 70.22

Buy EURINR Dec Fut. around

70.30, SL 69.50, Tgt. 72.10
EURINR Pair has been showing
relative strength as compared to
GBPINR and JPYINR.
Lower tops and lower bottoms are
intact on the daily chart. So,
existing trend is bearish
However, There is a long term
support seen at 70-70.3 levels,
which could result in to pullback in
the existing bearish trend.
RSI on the daily and weekly chart
has reached oversold zone
There is a long term support seen
between 70 and 70.30 levels in
EURINR Dec Fut.
We advise going long in EURINR
Dec fut around 70.30, For the
target of 72.10, Keeping SL at
69.50.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT GBPINR
GBPINR Dec. Future CMP 83.24
DAILY CHART
Weekly
Currency
Pivot

Resistance 2 85.43
Resistance 1 84.33
Pivot 83.72
Support 1 82.63
Support 2 82.02
Resi 83.88

SELL GBPINR DEC FUT at CMP,

Tgts 82.30 & 81.50, SL 83.90
We have been mentioning our
bearish view for GBPINR pair for Support 82.30
last couple of weeks. Our view got
vindicated as pair witnessed sharp
fall recently.
Overall trend of the pair has been
bearish with lower tops and lower
bottoms on the weekly and monthly
charts.
Oscillators like MACD and DMI have
turned bearish on daily and weekly
charts.
Supports for the pair seen at 82.30
and 81.50, while resistance for the
same seen at 83.90.
We advise selling GBPINR Dec Fut.
At cmp, for the targets of 82.30
and 81.50, Keeping SL at 83.90.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK SPOT JPYINR
JPYINR Dec. Future CMP : 57.84

Currency
Weekly DAILY CHART
Pivot

Resistance 2 58.27
Resistance 1 58.05
Pivot 57.78
Support 1 57.57
Support 2 57.30

Sell JPYINR Dec Fut. below 57.50,

SL 59, Tgts. 56.5 and 54
For last four trading sessions pair
has been consolidating in the
tight range between
Primary trend of the pair has
been bearish, as Lower tops and
lower bottoms are well intact on
the daily and weekly chart.
Though the pair has reached
oversold zone on the short term
charts, there is no sign of bullish
price reversal seen.
Long term supports for the pair
are seen somewhere around
56.50 and 53.60.
Resistance for the pair is seen at
59, which should be kept as stop
loss in short positions.
Considering the setup, we advise
going short on JPYINR Dec Fut
below 57.50, for the targets of
56.50 and 54, keeping SL at 59.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

DOLLAR INDEX EURUSD

DXY: Daily Chart

EURUSD: Daily Chart

GBPUSD USDJPY

USDJPY: Daily Chart

GBPUSD: Daily Chart

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR DEC. MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

Data Interpretation:

The highest Open interest had been seen in 68 strikes indicating near term resistance for USDINR Dec. future. In the week
gone by we had seen long unwinding in 67.50 call strikes as trader cover position around 1.05 lakh contracts.
The overall distribution saw support in the range of 67.30 to 67.00 while resistance around 68.10-68.25.
Looking at the above option distribution USDINR Dec. future could expiry around 68 marks.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

USDINR FUTURE OPEN INTEREST CHANGE

Data Interpretation:

USDINR December future ended the week on flat note, settling week at 67.82 from previous weeks 67.81. During the
week, the pair unable to hold level of 68 and consolidated in broad range of 67.70 to 68.10. However, we have seen
addition of 7.5% in open interest and 20.4% volume ahead of expiry week. The Aggregate open interest placed at 29.11
lakh contracts from previous week 26.64 and near month future added around 1.34 lakh contracts.
USDINR December future would consolidate in the range of 68.20 to 67.70 before expiring around 68 marks.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

INDIA FOREX RESERVE
Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions)
Wkly Chg. 16-Dec 9-Dec 2-Dec 25-Nov 18-Nov 11-Nov
Total Reserves -2.38 360.61 362.99 363.87 365.30 365.50 368.23
Foreign Currency Assets -2.36 336.9 339.26 340.13 341.08 341.27 343.92
Gold 0.00 19.98 19.98 19.98 20.46 20.46 20.46
Special Drawing Rights -0.01 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.47
Position in IMF -0.01 2.29 2.3 2.31 2.31 2.32 2.37

FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR

Positive Net Foreign Equity Invt.

Negative Net Foreign Equity Invt.
Positive Net Foreign Debt Invt.
Negative Net Foreign Debt Invt.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
CURRENCY PAIR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 102.97 103.02 102.89 102.92 (0.09) (0.21) 1.41 8.00
Euro Spot 1.0459 1.046 1.0444 1.0459 0.03 0.55 (1.46) (7.06)
British Pound Spot 1.2273 1.2293 1.2265 1.2287 0.04 (0.87) (1.04) (5.30)
Japanese Yen Spot 117.39 117.4 117.05 117.05 0.24 0.03 (4.37) (14.28)
Indian Rupee Spot 67.9225 67.9425 67.75 67.825 0.24 (0.08) 1.09 (1.73)
Brazilian Real Spot 3.2873 3.2919 3.2593 3.2703 0.65 3.60 3.67 (0.80)
Australian Dollar Spot 0.7173 0.7199 0.7164 0.7199 0.32 (0.63) (3.78) (5.72)
South Korean Won Spot 1201.45 1201.45 1197.84 1199.68 0.26 (1.06) (2.45) (7.65)
S. African Rand Spot 14.0193 14.0605 13.9564 14.0317 (0.24) 0.77 (2.15) (2.51)
Canadian Dollar Spot 1.3528 1.3544 1.3512 1.3534 (0.01) (0.93) (0.90) (2.27)
Swiss Franc Spot 1.0264 1.0275 1.0253 1.0255 0.10 0.19 (1.25) (5.49)

MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
COMMODITY OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
GOLD 1128.38 1135.84 1128.14 1133.3 0.44 (0.14) (4.63) (15.27)
SILVER 15.7937 15.8638 15.69 15.7536 (0.25) (2.13) (3.76) (19.99)
CRUDE OIL 52.68 53.28 52.26 53.02 0.13 0.13 8.51 14.56

MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
Nifty 50 7972.5 8022.6 7942.1 7985.8 0.08 (1.89) (1.58) (8.45)
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 25960.0 26143.2 25872.4 26040.7 0.24 (1.69) (1.05) (7.96)
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 19908.6 19934.2 19899.1 19933.8 0.07 0.46 4.08 10.16
S&P 500 INDEX 2260.3 2263.8 2258.8 2263.8 0.13 0.25 2.28 5.48
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 5441.8 5462.7 5441.8 5462.7 0.28 0.47 1.18 3.90
FTSE 100 INDEX 7063.7 7071.1 7054.6 7068.2 0.06 0.81 3.32 3.67
CAC 40 INDEX 4837.4 4844.8 4825.9 4839.7 0.10 0.13 6.36 9.80
DAX INDEX 11477.2 11480.2 11409.4 11449.9 (0.05) 0.40 7.02 10.16
NIKKEI 225 19394.4 19421.6 19385.9 19410.4 (0.09) 0.05 6.87 15.86
HANG SENG INDEX 21553.8 21601.1 21491.8 21574.8 (0.28) (2.03) (5.06) (7.48)
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 3095.6 3095.6 3068.4 3077.1 (1.06) (1.31) (5.67) 3.24

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
12/26/2016 10:30 JN Leading Index CI Oct F -- 101
12/26/2016 12/30 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Nov -- 6.60%
12/28/2016 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Nov P 4.70% -1.40%
12/28/2016 15:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Nov 41400 40851
12/28/2016 20:30 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Nov -- 0.20%
12/28/2016 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Dec 10.1 10.2
12/29/2016 12:30 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Dec 3.80% 4.40%
12/29/2016 19:00 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Nov -$61.5b -$61.9b
12/29/2016 19:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Nov P 0.10% -0.40%
12/29/2016 19:00 US Retail Inventories MoM Nov -- -0.40%
12/29/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 24-Dec -- 275k
12/29/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 17-Dec -- 2036k
12/29/2016 20:15 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 25-Dec -- 46.7
12/30/2016 16:30 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Nov -- -24481
12/30/2016 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec 56.5 57.6

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses

An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.

For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an automatic
exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the world markets
are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.

Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering a
trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have created a
forex hedge.

With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the downside
risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position from the upside
risk.

The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and (c) to
plan and execute the strategy.

The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an importer
will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the US dollar. The
cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same time creating a loss for
the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to Indian rupees.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Hedging Works For An Importer

Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the delivery
date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth, say, Rs
66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June 2016, the
value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.

In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for the
importer would work:

Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on 11th
March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar

Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs 66,50,000).
However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due to profits in
currency hedge.

How An Exporter Can Use Hedging

A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to make
the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the exchange rate
for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows

In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that initially
the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June 2016.

Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but by
creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Research Analyst(Equity and Currency): Vinay Rajani ([Link]@[Link])
Research Analyst(Currency): Dilip Parmar ([Link]@[Link])

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
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Phone: (079) 66090040 /66070168, Website: [Link] Email: [Link]@[Link]
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]