AWI / Mario Hoppmann
Relating
Relating regional
regional Arctic
Arctic Sea-Ice
Sea-Ice and
and
climate
climate extremes
extremes over
over Europe
Europe
1,2 1 1,2 1
M. Ionita ([Link]@[Link]), K. Grosfeld , G. Lohmann and P. Scholz
1
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for polar and marine research, Bremerhaven, Germany
2
Marum, Bremen University, Bremen, Germany
Introduction Data Standard Deviation
The potential increase of temperature extremes under Daily time series of minimum temperature E-OBS data set [Haylock et Standard
climate change is a major threat to society, as al., 2008]. From the daily minimum temperature (TN) we computed two deviation of
temperature extremes have a deep impact on winter extreme indices: DJF and
environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and MAM sea
Cold days (TX10p) - the
economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms ice concen-
underlying their occurrence, including their relationships number of days with
tration
M
Tx < 10th percentile of
F
with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice
MA
DJ
concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, daily minimum temper-
the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 ature (TX10p) (days) 2016
years has been widely documented and it is clear that Ice days (ID) the
this change is having profound impacts at regional as numbers of days when Standard de-
well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to Tn < 0C (days) viation of JJA
investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea and SON sea
N
A
Daily and monthly means of
SO
ice concen-
JJ
ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe,
as identified by the numbers of cold days (TX10p) and sea level pressure, tration
ice days (ID). We analyze the relationship between geopotential height, zonal
Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October- wind and meridional wind SON Barents/Kara (BAKA) Sea Ice Concentration
November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions from the NCEP/NCAR 40-
(Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering year reanalysis project
Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador (Kalnay et al., 1996) on a
Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern 2.5 x 2.5 grid. 1998
Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation Hadley Centre Sea Ice and
and climate extreme indices in the following winter Sea Surface Temperature
months (December, January, February and March) over data set (HadISST) (Rayner
Europe using composite map analysis. We also test the et al., 2003)
robustness of the relationship between reduced sea ice Absolute (left) and detrended+normalized (right)
cover and the occurrence of extreme winter over Europe time-series of SON BAKA sea ice concentration (SIC)
by employing a robust statistical methodology called time-series. Above/below 75% of std. indicated by
stability maps. red/blue line.
Geopotential Height (Low SIC) Number of Cold Days & Ice Days (Low SIC)
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Low composite
map between
SON BAKA SIC
and the number
of cold days
per month
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Low composite
map between
SON BAKA SIC
and the number
of ice days per
month
2D Atmospheric Blocking Z500 and Water Vapour Transport
Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Robustness of the relationship-Stability Maps Conclusions
Stable correlation Full correlation Stable correlation Full correlation Barents/Kara sea ice cover plays the most important role in the occurrence of
(25 yr window) (25 yr window)
extreme (cold/warm) winter months over Europe.
Reduced sea ice cover over BAKA sea, in autumn, weakens the
stratospheric Polar Vortex in January and February.
The early winter mid-tropospheric response to reduced sea ice cover over
.
BAKA resembles the negative phase of NAO/AO.
De c
J an
Jan
.
.
De c
J an
J an
- Reduced sea ice cover over BAKA, in autumn, triggers the occurrence of
SLP
TT more blocking-like events over the Norwegian Sea and Fennoscandia in
January and February.
Stability map of A weekend Polar Vortex and the increased occurrence of blocking-like events
the correlation over the Norwegian Sea and Fennoscandia are associated with an increased
r.
.
between SON
F eb
Ma
frequency of cold and ice days in January and February over Europe.
r.
.
BAKA SIC and
F eb
Ma
TT (25 yr rm) The influence of BAKA sea ice cover is restricted, from a statistical point of
(Ionita et al. 2000, 2013) view, to Europe and Greenland.
POLARSTERN
References
Haylock M. R. et al., A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D20119.
Kalnay et al., 1996. The NMC/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
Ionita, M. et al, 2008. Prediction of Spring Elbe Discharge Based on Stable Teleconnections with Winter Global Temperature and Precipitation. J. Clim. 21, 62156226.
Ionita, M. et al., 2015: Predicting the June 2013 European Flooding Based on Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Sea Level Pressure. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 598614,
Rayner, N. A. et al., 2003. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. [Link]. 108, No. D14, 4407