arXiv:astro-ph/0506110 v1 6 Jun 2005

Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution and the

Apparent Failure of SETI

Milan M. Cirkovi
c
Astronomical Observatory Belgrade,
Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade-74, Serbia and Montenegro
E-mail: mcirkovic@[Link]
Robert J. Bradbury
Aeiveos Corporation, Seattle, WA 98103, USA
E-mail: bradbury@[Link]
Abstract
Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermis paradox (absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our
past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as
well as of strategies employed by SETI projects so far. The need for
such reevaluation is fueled not only by the failure of searches thus
far, but also by great advances recently made in astrophysics, astrobiology, computer science and future studies, which have remained
largely ignored in SETI practice. As an example of the new approach,
we consider the effects of the observed metallicity and temperature
gradients in the Milky Way on the spatial distribution of hypothetical
advanced extraterrestrial intelligent communities. While, obviously,
properties of such communities and their sociological and technological
preferences are entirely unknown, we assume that (1) they operate in
agreement with the known laws of physics, and (2) that at some point
they typically become motivated by a meta-principle embodying the
central role of information-processing; a prototype of the latter is the
recently suggested Intelligence Principle of Steven J. Dick. There are
specific conclusions of practical interest to astrobiological and SETI
endeavors to be drawn from coupling of these reasonable assumptions
with the astrophysical and astrochemical structure of the spiral disk
of our Galaxy. In particular, we suggest that the outer regions of the
Galactic disk are most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and
that sophisticated intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing
increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons. However, the outward movement is limited by the decrease in matter density in the outer Milky Way. This can also be regarded as a possible
generalization of the Galactic Habitable Zone, concept currently much
investigated in astrobiology.

Keywords: astrobiology, Galaxy: evolution, extraterrestrial intelligence, physics

of computation, SETI
1

If you do not expect the unexpected, you will not find it; for it is
hard to be sought out and difficult.
Heraclitus of Ephesos, fragment B18 (cca. 500 BC)

Introduction

Fermis paradox1 has become significantly more serious, even disturbing, of

late. This is due to several independent lines of scientific and technological
advances occurring during the last 10 years:
Discovery of more than 150 extrasolar planets, on almost weekly basis (for regular updates see [Link] many
of them are reported to be parts of systems with stable circumstellar
habitable zones (Noble, Musielak, and Cuntz 2002; Asghari et al. 2004;
Beauge et al. 2005).
Improved understanding of the details of chemical and dynamical structure of the Milky Way and its Galactic habitable zone (GHZ; Gonzalez,
Brownlee, and Ward 2001). In particular, this includes important recent calculations showing that Earth-like planets began forming more
than 9 Gyr ago and their median age is 6.40.7 Gyr, significantly more
than the Earths age (Lineweaver 2001; Lineweaver et al. 2004).
Confirmation of the rapid origination of life on early Earth (e.g. Mojzsis
et al. 1996); this rapidity, in turn, offers a strong probabilistic support
to the idea of many planets in the Milky Way inhabited by at least the
simplest lifeforms (Lineweaver and Davis 2002).
Discovery of extremophiles and the general resistance of simple lifeforms to much more severe environmental stresses than it had been
thought possible previously (e.g. Cavicchioli 2002). These include representatives of all three great domains of terrestrial life (Bacteria, Archaea, and Eucarya), showing that the number and variety of cosmic
habitats for life are probably much larger than conventionally imagined.
Our improved understanding in molecular biology and biochemistry
leading to heightened confidence in the theories of naturalistic origin
of life (Lahav, Nir, and Elitzur 2001; Ehrenfreund et al. 2002; Bada
1

It would be most appropriately to call it Tsiolkovsky-Fermi-Viewing-Hart-Tiplers

paradox (for much of the history, see Brin 1983; Kuiper and Brin 1989; Webb 2002, and
references therein). We shall use the locution Fermis paradox for the sake of brevity,
and with full respect for contributions of the other important authors.

2004). The same can be said, to a lesser degree, for our understanding of
the origin of intelligence and technological civilization (e.g. Chernavskii
2000).
Exponential growth of the technological civilization on Earth, especially manifested through Moores Law and other advances in information technologies (Moravec 1988; Schaller 1997; Bostrom 2000). This
includes the increased confidence in speculations about the ultimate
physical limits on computation (Lloyd 2000).
Improved understanding of feasibility of interstellar travel in both classical sense (Vulpetti 1999; Andrews 2003), and in the more efficient
form of sending inscribed matter packages over interstellar distances
(Rose and Wright 2004).
Theoretical grounding for various astro-engineering/macro-engineering
projects (Criswell 1985; Badescu 1995; Badescu and Cathcart 2000;
Korycansky, Laughlin, and Adams 2001; McInnes 2002) potentially detectable over interstellar distances. Especially important in this respect
is possible combination of astro-engineering and computation projects
of advanced civilizations, like those envisaged by Sandberg (1999).
Although admittedly uneven and partially conjectural, this list of advances
and developments (entirely unknown at the time of Tsiolkovskys and Fermis
original remarks, and even Viewings, Harts and Tiplers subsequent reissues) testifies that Fermis paradox is not only still with us more than half
a century later, but that it is more puzzling and disturbing than ever.2 In addition, we have witnessed substantial research leading to a decrease in confidence in the so-called Carters (1983) anthropic argument, the other main
stay of SETI scepticism (Wilson 1994; Livio 1999; Cirkovi
c and Dragicevic
2005, preprint). All this is accompanied by increased public interest in astrobiology and related issues (e.g. Ward and Brownlee 2000, 2002; Webb
2002; Cohen and Stewart 2003; Dick 2003). The list above shows, parenthetically, that quite widespread (especially in popular press) notion that there
is nothing new or interesting happening in SETI studies is deeply wrong.
Faced with aggravated situation vis-`a-vis Fermis paradox, the solution
is usually sought in either (i) some version of the rare Earth hypothesis
(i.e., the picture which emphasizes inherent uniqueness of our planet, and
2

One is tempted to add another item of a completely different sort to the list: the
empirical fact that we have survived about 60 years since invention of the first true weapons
of mass destruction gives us at least a vague Bayesian argument countering the ideas
prevailing at the time of Fermi and his original lunch-time questionthat technological
civilizations tend to destroy themselves as soon as they discover nuclear power. This is
not to contest that the bigger of part of the road toward safety for humankind is still in
front of us.

hence uniqueness of human intelligence and technological civilization in the

Galactic context), or (ii) neo-catastrophic explanations (ranging from the
classical mandatory self-destruction explanation, championed for instance
by von Hoerner or Shklovsky, to the modern emphasis on mass extinctions
in the history of life and the role of catastrophic impacts, gamma-ray bursts,
and similar dramatic events). Both these broad classes of hypotheses are
unsatisfactory on several counts: for instance, rare Earth hypotheses reject the usual Copernican assumption (Earth is a typical member of the
planetary set), and neo-catastrophic explanations usually fail to pass the

non-exclusivity requirement (but see Cirkovi

c 2004a,b). None of these are
clear, straightforward solutions. It is quite possible that a patchwork solution, comprised of a combination of suggested and other solutions remains
our best option for solving this deep astrobiological problem. This motivates
the continuation of the search for plausible explanations of Fermis paradox.
Hereby, we would like to propose a novel solution, based on the astrophysical properties of our Galactic environment on large scales, as well as some
economic and informational aspects of the presumed advanced technological
civilizations (henceforth ATCs). In doing so, we will suggest a radically new
perspective on the entire SETI endeavor.

Digital perspective and the postbiological

universe

In an important recent paper, the distinguished historian of science Stephen

J. Dick argued that there is a tension between SETI, as conventionally understood, and prospects following exponential growth of technology as perceived
in recent times on Earth (Dick 2003):
But if there is a flaw in the logic of the Fermi paradox and extraterrestrials are a natural outcome of cosmic evolution, then
cultural evolution may have resulted in a postbiological universe
in which machines are the predominant intelligence. This is more
than mere conjecture; it is a recognition of the fact that cultural
evolution the final frontier of the Drake Equation needs to be
taken into account no less than the astronomical and biological
components of cosmic evolution. [emphasis in the original]
It is easy to understand the necessity of redefining SETI studies in general
and our view of Fermis paradox in particular in this context: for example, postbiological evolution makes those behavioral and social traits like
territoriality or expansion drive (to fill the available ecological niche) which
aremore or less successfullyderived from nature lose their relevance.
Other important guidelines must be derived which will encompass the vast
4

realm of possibilities stemming from the concept of postbiological evolution.

In particular, we follow the Intelligence Principle of Dick (2003), stating that
In sorting priorities, I adopt what I term the central principle of
cultural evolution, which I refer to as the Intelligence Principle:
the maintenance, improvement and perpetuation of knowledge and
intelligence is the central driving force of cultural evolution, and
that to the extent intelligence can be improved, it will be improved.
[emphasis in the original]
Before we explore the logical consequences of the Intelligence Principle for
SETI further, let us emphasize that the study of Dick (2003) is not an isolated instance. Very similar thinking is clearly emerging in various other
fields and related to a plethora of different problems. Considerations of postbiological evolution may be fruitfully related to the megatrajectory concept
of Knoll and Bambach (2000), who cogently argue that astrobiology is the
ultimate field for verification or rejection of our biological concepts. In relation to the old problem of progress (or its absence) in the evolution of life
on Earth, Knoll and Bambach offer a middle road encompassing both contingent and convergent features of biological evolution through the idea of a
megatrajectory:
We believe that six broad megatrajectories capture the essence of
vectorial change in the history of life. The megatrajectories for a
logical sequence dictated by the necessity for complexity level N
to exist before N + 1 can evolve... In the view offered here, each
megatrajectory adds new and qualitatively distinct dimensions to
the way life utilizes ecospace.
The six megatrajectories outlined by the biological evolution on Earth so far
are: (i) from the origin of life to the Last Common Ancestor; (ii) prokaryote diversification; (iii) unicellular eukaryote diversification; (iv) multicellularity; (v) invasion of the land; and (vi) appearance of intelligence and
technology. Postbiological evolution may present the seventh megatrajectory,
triggered by the emergence of artificial intelligence at least equivalent to the
biologically-evolved one, as well as the invention of several key technologies
of roughly similar level of complexity and environmental impact, like molecular nanoassembly (Phoenix and Drexler 2004) or stellar uplifting (Criswell
1985). ATCs can be regarded as instantiations of this seventh (or possible
higher) megatrajectory. It is not necessary to assume that the seventh megatrajectory represents the complete or partial abandonment of the biological
material substratum of previous evolution, although that is certainly one of
the options. Rather, the mode of evolution is likely to change from the Darwinian one dominating previous six megatrajectories, to a sort of aggregative,
5

intentional, quasi-Lamarckian mode characteristic for highly developed cultural entities. We shall repeatedly return to this important point, which
in a sense obviates further rather superficial speculation about the detailed
structure of ATCs.
A natural extension of the Intelligence Principle is what can be called the
digital perspective on astrobiology: after a particular threshold astrobiological
complexity is reached, the relevant relations between existent entities are
characterized by requirements of computation and information processing.
It is related to the emergent computational concepts not only in biology,
but in fundamental physics, cosmology, social sciences, etc. One particular
consequence of the digital perspective, dealing with the thermodynamics of
computation, we shall now argue, will allow us a glimpse of a novel view of
the generic evolution of the intelligent communities in the Galactic context,
including a new solution of the old Fermis puzzle. The digital perspective
also indicates that we should either entirely abandon or significantly modify
Kardashevs (1964) classification of extraterrestrial intelligent communities,
one of the mainstays of classical SETI studies.
What limits prospects of postbiological evolution guided by the Intelligence Principle? In order to answer this question, we need to consider limitations imposed by physics on the classical theory of computation. As almost
anybody having practical experience with computers will have experienced,
heat is an enemy of computation. In contrast to other obstacles and difficulties facing highly imperfect computers of today (like limited storage space,
dust gathering on chips, or inefficiency of their human operators), the problem of heat dissipation is a consequence of the laws of physics. Therefore, we
conjecture that this problem will remain the enemy of efficient computation
for advanced technical civilizations, and that it will have a dominant effect
on policy-making of such advanced societies.
Thermodynamics of computation has, historically, been motivated by
Maxwells demon paradox which led to great breakthroughs of Szilard,
Brillouin, and Landauer. One of its most important results, often called
Brillouin inequality is the fundamental property of the information content
available for processing in any sort of physical system (Landauer 1961; Brillouin 1962):
I Imax ,
(1)
where the limiting amount of information Imax (in bits) processed using energy E (in ergs) on the processor temperature T (in K) is given as
Imax =

E
E
= 1.05 1016
.
kB T ln 2
T

(2)

Here, kB is the Boltzmann constant. Obviously, computation becomes more

efficient as the temperature of the heat reservoir in contact with the computer is lower. In the ideal case, no energy should be expended on cooling
6

the computer itself, since that expense should be added to the energy cost
of logical steps minimized by (2). The most efficient heat reservoir is the
universe itself, which far from local energy sources like stars and galaxies,
has the temperature of the cosmic microwave background (henceforth CMB;
Wright et al. 1994)
TCMB = 2.736 0.017 K.
(3)
However, this is an ideal case, since ATCs cannot have their computers in
thermal equilibrium with CMB for astrophysical reasons. In the rest of this
paper we shall investigate how close approach to this ideal case is feasible.
It has already been repeatedly suggested that our descendants, in particular if they cease to be organic-based, may prefer low-temperature, volatilerich outer reaches of the Solar System. Thus, they could create what could be
dubbed circumstellar technological zone as different and complementary to
the famous (and controversial) circumstellar habitable zone in which life
is, according to most contemporary astrobiological views, bound to emerge.
We propose to generalize this concept to the Galaxy (and other spiral galaxies) in complete analogy to GHZ (Gonzalez et al. 2001; Lineweaver et al.
2004). It is not necessary, or indeed desirable, for our further considerations
to make the notion of ATCs more precise. The diversity of postbiological
evolution is likely to at least match, and probably dwarf, the diversity of its
biological precedent. It is one particular featureinformation processing
we assume common for the mainstream ATCs. Whether real ATCs can
most adequately be described as being computers or having computers
is not of key importance for our analysis; we just suppose that in either case
the desire for optimization of computations will be one of important, if not
the most important, desires of such advanced entities. It is already clear,
from the obviously short and limited human astronautical experience, that
postbiological evolution offers significant advantages in this field (Parkinson
2005).

Galactic temperature gradient

The famous article by Freeman Dyson (1960) proposing search for large-scale
engineering projects (like eponymous Dyson shells) as the signposts of the
presence of advanced extraterrestrial intelligence provoked much discussion
henceforth. One very important contribution was the early suggestion of
the distinguished computer scientist and AI pioneer Marvin Minsky (1973)
in a debate following Dysons talk at the celebrated Byurakan conference
in 1971, that advanced computers would utilize the temperature of cosmic
microwave background as a heat sink (3).3 This particular idea is wrong
3

Parenthetically, in the same debate Minsky presciently suggested infeasibility of conventional SETI due to the impossibility of distinguishing the signal from the Gaussian

in the specifics, at least for the younger and most accessible ATCs, but it
gives us an important hint as to what should we be searching for. Subsequently, other astro-engineering projectssometimes called megaprojects or
macroprojectsaimed at optimization of resources at ATCs disposal have
been proposed, notably Jupiter Brains (Sandberg 1999; for early history see
Bradbury 1997; Perry E. Metzger, private communication to RJB May 20,
1998) and Matrioshka Brains (Bradbury 2001).
What is the temperature of a solid body (like a Dyson shell, a Matrioshka
brain, or a Jupiter brain4 in thermal equilibrium with the surrounding interstellar space? The dominant factor is the spatial distribution of the interstellar radiation field (henceforth ISRF), especially at short wavelengths
(optical and UV). It can be shown that the most important way of energy
transfer to a solid body in by far the largest fraction of the Galactic interstellar medium (ISM), is the absorption of photons while collisions with atoms
and ions are unimportant. For example, ambiental ultraviolet flux close to
the Solar circle of about 1010 photons m2 s1 nm1 will deposit about a
1020 J s1 to a dust grain (with unity absorption factor, for simplicity),
while collisions deposit 1026 nISM J s1 , where nISM is the ISM number
density in cm3 . Since on the average hnISM i = 1 cm3 , we perceive how
unimportant collisions which form our laboratory definition of the thermal
equilibrium are in the interstellar space.
Neglecting collisions, the temperature will be given by solving the radiative equilibrium equation (e.g. Dyson and Williams 1980)
Z

F ()Qabs (a, ) d =

Qabs (a, )B(, T ) d,

(4)

where F () is the energy flux of ISRF, Qabs is the absorption coefficient, and
the Planck black-body function is given as
B(, T ) =

n2
2hc
 
.
3 exp hc 1

(5)

kT

ISRF is created mainly by massive stars of Population I, concentrated in the

Galactic disk. Typical value of the energy density of ISRF in vicinity of the
Sun is U = 71013 ergs cm3 , which does not include the CMB contribution,
which has UCMB = 4 1013 ergs cm3 . We use the conventional assumption
of the exponential disk (e.g. Binney and Merrifield 1998) with the luminosity
density approximated by
!

R
|z|
I0
exp

,
j(R, z) =
2z0
Rd
z0

(6)

noise (cf. Lachmann, Newman, and Moore 2004).

4
For the purpose of the present discussion, we use the placeholder solid body for any
macroscopic body not made of gas or liquid. Thus, sizes of solid bodies we consider range
roughly from 105 cm (an interstellar dust grain) to 1013 cm (a Dyson shell).

where I0 is the central surface brightness, z0 is the scale-height, and Rd 3

kpc is the disk scalelength. From this, we obtain the disk surface brightness
as
+


Z
R
,
(7)
I(R) =
j(R, z) dz = I0 exp
Rd

which agrees with observations in other disk galaxies. It seems clear that
ISRF will decline with galactocentric distance, and thus the equilibrium temperature will decline too, enabling more and more efficient computation, as
per (2). No detailed studies of the radiation field temperature distribution
in the Milky Way disk exist so far, we suggest the following rough estimates.
Part of the answer can be gauged by comparison with the existent natural
solid bodies in such thermal equilibrium, namely interstellar dust grains. In
Figure 1, we see results of the detailed models of the Galactic temperature
distribution of dust grains (Mathis, Mezger, and Panagia 1983; Cox, Kr
ugel,
and Mezger 1986). Using the same values of ISRF and correcting for the
emission efficiency of larger solid objects we get the results presented in
Figure 2, for computation efficiency defined as the maximal number of bytes
processed per erg of the invested energy in terabytes (1012 bytes) per erg.
In reality, we need to take into account the inhomogeneities in the interstellar medium, especially giant molecular clouds. The interiors of molecular
clouds are impenetrable to short wavelength radiation, and present some of
the coldest locales in the Milky Way (T 10 K). However, the interiors of
giant molecular clouds are also sites of vigorous massive star formation, so
these low-temperature locales are quite irregular and transient phenomena,
assembling and dissembling on timescales of 106 yrs, which is probably
unacceptable from the point of view of most ATCs (which we suppose stable
at longer timescales by definition).
There have not been any studies of the ISRF for distances larger than
about 14 kpc (Prof. John S. Mathis, private communication). At some point
for large galactocentric distances (larger than the Holmberg radius 20 kpc),
practically all sources of ISRF are located at smaller R, so we can use the
simplest approximation of galaxy as a point source. If with TD (R) we denote
the temperature of a large solid object (a Dyson shell, say) at galactocentric
distance R, a simple scaling relationship holds:
TD4 (R) L R2 ,

(8)

where is Steffan-Boltzmann constant, L 4.9 1010 L the Galactic

luminosity in the absorbing bands. Taking into account both (2) and (8), we
obtain the general scaling relation in the outermost regions:
 

I
R.
(9)
E max
9

Figure 1: Temperature of dust grains in equilibrium with ISRF for various

galactocentric distances given by Mathis et al. (1983); courtesy of Prof. John
S. Mathis.
10

At large distances, the CMB limit will be reached asymptotically. Other

issues to be taken into account in a future more complete treatment of the
problem of habitability of the Galaxy from the point of view of (probably
postbiological) ATCs are the following:
Cosmic ray heating, which is important even in the interiors of the densest molecular clouds (it dominates heating and ionization mechanisms
there and initiates all chemical reactions in cold environments); the
cosmic ray energy density at the Solar circle is about Ucr = 2.4 1012
erg cm3 (Webber 1987), but falls off in a complicated manner with
galactocentric distance (including Parker instability, etc.).
Supernovae, especially of the core-collapse Type II and Type Ic, which
tend to be concentrated in spiral arms and other regions of intense
star-formation (for the astrobiological significance of supernovae for
planetary biospheres, see e.g. Tucker and Terry 1968; Ruderman 1974;
Hunt 1978; Collar 1996).
Much rarer and more dramatic events, Galactic gamma-ray bursts (the
longer ones associated with hypernovae and perhaps also shorter ones
caused by neutron stars mergers), capable of adversely influencing
planetary biospheres over a large part of the Galaxy (e.g. Thorsett
1995; Scalo and Wheeler 2002; Dar and De R
ujula 2002; Melott et al.
2004; Thomas et al. 2005). Possible Galactic nuclear activity falls in
the same category (see below).
Other thermodynamical issues related to computational needs, notably
bit-erasure costs, as well as bandwidth and latency issues (Sandberg
2000).
It is significant that both radiative and kinetic energy inputs from supernovae and related events are adverse to the computation efficiency of ATCs.
All these effects are falling off with the galactocentric distance, and become
very small for R > 15 kpc. In the inner parts of the Galaxy, the same factors
which preclude habitability (mainly supernovae and gamma-ray bursts) act
to preclude computation as well. In addition, the issue of the nuclear activity of the Milky Way and spiral galaxies in general, may be important for
astrobiological evolution of those regions. It has been proposed by Clarke
(1981) in an interesting early paper, as a mechanism of global regulation preventing life and intelligence from arising in the entire Galaxy; see also Clube
(1978) and LaViolette (1987). Although it seems now that the original idea
is implausible in light of the specific conditions in Milky Ways nucleus, we
should still be cautious, since the recent research unveiled tremendous nuclear
outbursts in distant objects (e.g. McNamara et al. 2005).

11

Figure 2: Maximal quantity of information per unit expended energy processed by a computer in equilibrium with the radiation field at various galactocentric distances in the Milky Way (with the location of the Solar System
indicated by a vertical bar). The limit due to the cosmic microwave background is also given. We see that the efficiency limit rises considerably for
R > 10 kpc. At large galactocentric distances,
a simple scaling argument
indicates that the efficiency will tend to rise R until it reaches the CMB
limit in the true intergalactic space; however, those external regions are
almost devoid of baryonic matter, and even the density of cold dark matter
(CDM) particles becomes exceedingly small.

12

There is another large-scale gradient in the Milky Way recently firmly

established by observations: the metallicity gradient. Average metal abundances of stars and ISM are rather well described by the radial gradient of
Z 0.07 dex/kpc (Hou, Prantzos, and Boissier 2000; Tadross 2003). It
could seem at first that this is adverse for ATCs in the outer regions of the
Galaxy, thus counteracting the trend of increasing computing efficiency described above. But, the Intelligence Principle suggests something different,
when we take into account that the chemical enrichment causing the gradient
is entirely the product of stellar nucleosynthesis; primordial composition was
uniformly metal-free. Stellar nucleosynthesis is appallingly inefficient process
by ATC standards; it converts 1% of the rest mass to energy and most of
that created energy left the Galaxy a long time before the emergence of first
ATCs. Thus, baryonic matter in the primordial composition would, in principle, be desirable for advanced optimization of computation. ATCs would
subsequently be able to create heavier nuclei by controlled nuclear fusion and
minimize the energy leak per unit of created entropy.

Migration hypothesis

Taking all this into account, we suggest the migration hypothesis: ATCs
will tend to move their computing facilities toward the colder regions of the
Milky Way in order to make their information processing as efficient as possible. In general case, this would mean the outskirts of the Galaxy, but the
interiors of the giant molecular clouds could also serve as local foci for the
advanced information processing.5 If the postbiological evolution is predominant, as suggested by Dick (2003) and other recent authors, this would mean
that the entire ATC will tend to migrate outward from its original location in the GHZ toward a convenient location in the Galactic technological
zone (GTZ) with temperature low enough to increase computing efficiency.
Although such a migration will seem expensive at first glance, it is not necessarily so: postbiological civilizations are likely to be small, compact, stable
over astrophysical timescales and would be able to travel as redundant information storages at small speeds with negligible energy expenditures. Almost
all energy will be needed for acceleration and deceleration. Starting at a particular galactocentric distance, it is not difficult to calculate that any specific
transportation cost will be covered by increased computation efficiency on
timescales short compared to the astrophysical timescales (stellar Main Sequence lifetimes; cf. Zuckerman 1985) or even the timescale of the travel
itself! Interestingly enough, bold suggestions for the possible technologies
5

Insofar as the other risks, from the point of view of ATCs and the Intelligence Principle,
mentioned above can be avoided: notably star-formation bursts and associated Type II
supernovae.

13

of such interstellar migrations already exist in the literature, notably in the

form of stellar engines (e.g. Badescu and Cathcart 2000) or gravitational
assists (Prado 1996; Vulpetti 1999).
What limits the outward migration of ATCs? This is largely a contextdependent issue, but the most plausible limit is set simply by available supply
of matter. Depending on whether ATCs get to use non-baryonic dark matter,
whose density roughly varies in accordance with the isothermal profile (
R2 ), or only baryonic matter, which falls off exponentially (6), the maximal
distance a cost-mindful ATC may be located at will greatly vary. But in each
case, it is a well-defined value, which limits the Galactic technological zone
from the outside. The concept of GTZ should not be understood as strict
and immutable: it just indicates higher relative density of technologized
matter than elsewhere. ATCs can arise and function elsewhere (in the same
sense as life can arise outside of the classical circumstellar habitable zone;
e.g. in Europa-like subglacial oceans), but the probability of finding them
is not uniform; on the present hypothesis, the maximum probability will be
located in the ring on the periphery of the Milky Way.
It is important to understand that while we do not doubt that ATCs will
eventually have astro-engineering means to prevent any individual catastrophic occurrences like supernovae or GRBs,6 we doubt that it can ever
become worthwhile to manage and police the Galaxy in this manner. Energy/information and time cost are likely to remain too high in all epochs.
On the contrary, it seems probable that any rational cost-benefit analysis
would favor migration to the Galactic rim rather than the costly and risky
policing strategy.
Migration in physical space will be analogous to the prior migration of
the bulk of civilizations interests and pursuits from physical to digital space.
This presents an additional factor helping explain Fermis paradox: advanced civilizations based on an optimized computronium (i.e. whatever substrate upon which computation can take place) infrastructure have little need
for conversations with human-level individuals or even civilizations whose

thought capacities are trillions of times less than their own (cf. Cirkovi
c and
Radujkov 2001). In contrast, they may have an interest in leaving our civilization and other late comers to their own unique development path so
as to increase the potential diversity and information content of the Galaxy.
As elaborated by Bradbury (2001), this is due to the large phase space of
what can be constructed using molecular nanotechnology and the difficulties in proving that the computational architectures previously adopted to
support advanced civilizations are, in fact, optimal. ATCs may need less
developed civilizations for the dumb luck they may have in developing an
unexplored quadrant of the phase space of what may be designed and assem6

This could be achieved through technologies already envisaged, like stellar lifting and
long-term orbit modifications.

14

bled in support of the evolution of intelligence. An additional consequence of

the outward migration would be a dramatic increase in the average distance
between ATCs; this circumstance will be important for assessing practical
SETI prospects below.
Compared with the usual SETI assumptions, the present hypothesis favors a small, compact, highly efficient ATCs, in both biological and postbiological cases. In contrast to the usually assumed model of expanding
colonial empire from human history (which confronts us with the gravest
form of Fermis paradox), the present picture would rather use a model of a
city-stateif anything from the human history is to be even remotely analogous to the generic pathway of ATCs, which is itself a doubtful proposition.
It is too often forgotten (both among SETI proponents, as well as the contact pessimists) that colonial expansion has been an exception, rather than
the rule in human history so far; our Western-centric attitude should not
blind us into accepting a wrong model for civilizational behavior. Countless
city-states, be they in ancient Greece, pre-Aryan India, Babylonia, medieval
Italy, Germany or Russia, pre-Incan Andes or Mayan Mexico, have all together much longer and stronger traditions than imperial powers, of which
there are no more than two dozen examples altogether, from Assyria to the
USA. Even in the cases where cities and other smaller organizational units
have been peacefully or otherwise incorporated into a larger whole, this was
often regarded as optimization of resources and management, and clear limits to growth have been set in advance; examples in this respect range from
Achaean League, to Hansa, to Swiss Confederation, to China after Chin
unification. It is exactly this understanding of limits (or resources and communication) which made the longevity of civilizations like the Chinese, or
organizations like the Roman Catholic Church so prominent in the human
history so far. Vice versa, it was disregard for these limits which contributed
to downfalls of all historical empires.
As noticed by Gould (1989), the normative concept of progress through
conquest and displacement is intimately linked with the Victorian chain of
being fallacy. According to this view, all lifeforms have their exact position
in the chain ranging from the most primitive Archaea to the gentlemen with
white hats doing a noble job of conquering savages all around the world. This
view has been abandoned in practically all fieldsexcept, ironically enough,
SETI studies. In general, SETI is mostly in the same shape and with the
same set of philosophical, methodological and technological guidelines as it
was in the time of its pioneers (Drake, Sagan, Shklovskii, Bracewell, Oliver,
Morrison) in 1960s and 1970s.7 In contrast, our views of astrophysics, biology,
and especially, computer sciencearguably the three key scientific disciplines
for SETIchanged revolutionarily, to put it mildly, since that epoch. The
7

For a prototype Galactic Club optimisticor naiveview of that epoch, exactly 30

years old, see Bracewell (1975). Early SETI literature abounds in such enthusiasm.

15

present study is an attempt to break this mold and point serious modern
alternatives to the old-fashioned SETI philosophy.
The present approach is similar to the one favored by Dyson (2003), who
suggests searching for life at distant objects of the Solar System (and other
planetary systems). Although Dyson only considers primitive life, this can be
easily generalized to life of higher level of complexity and even intelligence.8
In his other writings, Dyson has suggested supercivilizations of various sorts
whose activities can be detected even if they are not actively engaged in an
effort to contact and communicate with other societies; for an early review
of such ideas, see Lemarchand (1995). In our view, the migration hypothesis
can solve Fermis paradox, since the truly advanced societies, i.e. those who
survive the bottleneck presented by the threat of self-destruction through
warfare or accident will tend to be located at the outskirts of the Milky Way,
outside of the main thrust of SETI projects so far. The very same traits making ATCs capable of migrating and utilizing resources with high efficiency
(compactness, high integration, etc.) will tend to make them systematically
hard to detect from afar. This is in diametrical opposition to views of many
early SETI researchersrecently brought to a sort of the logical extreme by
Weinberger and Hartl (2002)that ATCs will indulge in extravagant spending in order to achieve interstellar communication, even if only nominal. The
same applies mutatis mutandis to the large-scale interstellar travel to diverse
targets; the nature of the postbiological megatrajectory is not likely to include any gain from the scattering of pieces of an ATC all over the Galaxy.9
One of the SETI pioneers, Benjamin Zuckerman proposed in 1985 that stellar
evolution is an important motivation for civilizations to undertake interstellar
migrations (Zuckerman 1985). Although arguments presented in that study
seem outdated in many respects, it is significant that the mass migration
idea has been presented even in the context of classical SETI studies, biological evolution and pre-digital perspective. It seems implausible that any
but the most extreme conservative societies would opt to wait to be forced
to migration by slow and easily predictable process like their domicile star
leaving the Main Sequence.
8
Parenthetically, the same line of reasoning suggests that the search for extraterrestrial
artifacts (SETA) should concentrate to the outskirts of the Solar System, notably the
Kuiper belt objects and even Oort cloud comets. Low-profile digital approach would
warrant maximization of the information processing for the hypothetical ATC probes
also.
9
This is related to the possibility of postbiological ATCs being what Bradbury (2001)
dubs distributed replicated intelligence[s]. Although elaboration of this admittedly speculative concept is far beyond the scope of the present study, it is enough to mention the
intuitively clear picture in which, once a threshold of complexity is reached, it is very
hard to separate an intelligent part from the whole of the ATC to any distance making
the latency problems due to the finite speed of light important. This may pose problems
for anything but the simplest, low-profile, interstellar drones or passive inscribed matter
packages.

16

Not surprisingly, some of the ideas presented here have been forefathered in a loose form within SF discourse. Karl Schroeder in Permanence
not only formulated an unrelated answer to Fermis question, but, more
pertinently, envisaged the entire Galaxy-wide ecosystem based on brown
dwarfs (and halo population in general) and low-temperature environment

(Schroeder 2002; see also Cirkovi

c 2005). The idea of a new megatrajectory
comprising mainstream evolution of ATCs and containing the theoretical
explanation of Fermis paradox has been beautifully discussed by Stanislaw
Lem (especially 1987, but see also Lem 1984). Most strikingly, the idea of
ATCs inhabiting the outer fringes of the Milky Way has been suggested
though without the thermodynamical rationaleby Vernon Vinge in A Fire
upon the Deep (Vinge 1991). Vinge vividly envisages Zone boundaries
separating dead and low-tech environments from the true ATCs inhabiting
regions at the boundary of the disk and high above the Galactic plane. This
is roughly analogous to the low-temperature regions we outlined as the most
probable Galactic technological zone.

Discussion: failure of the conventional SETI

perspective

In building of the migrational solution to Fermis puzzle, we have relied on

the following set of assumptions:
1. The Copernican principle continues to hold in astrobiology, i.e. there
is nothing special about the Earth and the Solar System when considerations of life, intelligent observers or ATCs are made.
2. Laws of physics (as applied to the classical computation theory and
astrophysics) are universally valid.
3. Naturalistic explanations for the origin of life, intelligence and ATCs
are valid.
4. The Milky Way exhibits well-established gradients of both baryonic
matter density and equilibrium radiation field temperature.
5. Habitable planets occur naturally only within GHZ (which evolves in
a manner roughly understood), but ATCs are not in any way limited
to this region.
6. We assume local influences both of and on ATCs. Thus, we disregard
speculative ideas about wormholes, basement universes, etc. Interstellar travel is feasible, but is bound to be slow and expensive (for
anything larger than nanomachines) at all epochs.
17

7. Astro-engineering on the scales significantly larger than the scale of

a typical planetary system (e.g., on the parsec scale and above) will
remain difficult and expensive at all epochs and for all ATCs.
8. ATCs will tend to maximize efficiency of information-processing, no
matter how heterogeneous their biological, cultural, etc. structures and
evolutionary pathways are.
These assumptions are, of course, of varying validity and importance. Items
1, 2, and 3 are essential methodological guidelines of the entire scientific endeavor; although 1 has recently become controversial within rare Earth
theorists circle, there is still no compelling reasons for relinquishing it. Assumption 4 is an empirical fact, and 5 is quite close to it. Assumptions 6 and
7 are conservative extrapolations of our limited scientific and technological
perspective, but in our view should be retained until the contrary positions
can be verified. In particular, absence of the Galaxy-size astro-engineering
effects in external galaxies (Annis 1999b) strongly supports assumption 7.
Most controversial, of course, is the culturological (or meta-ethical) assumption 8. One way to justify it is to observe the alternative long-term
strategies in a given cosmological setting. Ultimately, ATCs will face the limits of cosmology and fundamental physics (Tipler 1986; Adams and Laughlin

1997; Cirkovi
c 2004c); their vastly improved predicting capacities will enable them to obtain high-resolution models of such situations far in advance.
Two limits seem reasonable: evolving into either pure pleasure seeking and
hedonism in the most general sense (a Roman empire analogue) or onto a
pathway toward the greatest accomplishments possible along their individual development vector (a Greek Olympics analogue). In either situation
they will seek the greatest computational capacity and efficiency possible to
support these activities.
We wish to re-emphasize the absence of exotic physics or inconceivably
advanced technology in our analysis. Its central piece, Brillouin inequality
is valid for classical computation. If much discussed (in theory) quantum
computation becomes practical possibility, it might not be bound by it (although an analogous constraint, Margolus-Levitin bound might step in its

place; cf. Dugic and Cirkovi

c 2002). On the more exotic/SF side of the story,
one might imagine creating wormholes to non-local sources of usable energy,
or even entire basement universes envisaged by Linde (1990, 1992; see also
Garriga et al. 2000).
The migration hypothesis smoothly joins with the global catastrophic solutions, such as those proposed by Clarke (1981) and Annis (1999a; see also
Norris 2000). In those scenarios, there is a global regulation mechanism for
preventing the formation of complex life forms and technological societies
early in the history of the Galaxy. Such a global mechanism could have the
physical form of -ray bursts, if it can be shown that they exhibit sufficient
18

lethality to cause mass biological extinctions over a large part of the volume
of the Galactic habitable zone (Scalo and Wheeler 2002; see also Thorsett
1995; Melott et al. 2004). However, since the regulation mechanism exhibits
secular evolution, with the rate of catastrophic events decreasing with time,
at some point the astrobiological evolution of the Galaxy will experience a
change of regime. When the rate of catastrophic events is high, there is a sort
of quasi-equilibrium state between the natural tendency of life to emerge,
spread, diversify, and complexify, and the rate of destruction and extinctions. When the rate becomes lower than some threshold value, intelligent
and space-faring species can arise in the interval between any two extinctions
and make themselves immune (presumably through technological means) to
further extinction/causing events.10 The migration hypothesis complements
such catastrophic solutions to Fermis puzzle, since it adds another layer to
the Great Filter (Hanson 1998) explaining the absence of ATCs or their
manifestations. Annis and related hypotheses suggest that ATCs are both
rarer and younger than we would naively expect based on uncritical gradualism; the migration hypothesis presented here indicates that even those which
exist at present would be hard to detect due to their peripheral distribution,
as well as other difficulties related to their postbiological evolution. In other
words, not-yet-ATCs are decimated by catastrophes, while ATCswho are
immune to such contingencieshave predominantly migrated to the Galactic
rim long time ago.
An objection that the proposed solution violates Occams razor must be
considered. William of Occam a 14th century English Franciscan, strongly
espoused nominalism against the Platonic concept of ideal types as entities
in a realm higher than material existence (a viewpoint conventionally known
as realism). Occam devised his famous motto, non sunt multiplicanda entia
praeter necessitatem (entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity), as
a weapon in this philosophical battlean argument against the existence of
an ideal Platonic realm (for nominalists regard names of categories only as
mental abstractions from material objects, and not as descriptions of higher
realities, requiring an additional set of unobserved ideal entities, or essences).
Occams razor, in its legitimate application, therefore operates as a logical
principle about the complexity of an argument, not as an empirical claim that
nature must be maximally simple. It is exactly this often underappreciated
point which makes the present solution to Fermis paradox actually simpler
than most of the alternatives. Consider, for instance, the hypothesis that
a hundred prospective (independently arising) ATCs randomly distributed
over the Milky Way disk destroyed themselves through internal warfare before leaving their home planets. It isapart from the appeal to a mystical
and universal fatuman excessively complex hypothesis, relying on expla10

In fact, an alternative definition of ATCs may consist of the requirement that an

intelligent community is immune, as a community, to all kinds of natural catastrophes.

19

nation of the observed Great Silence through a hundred groups of both

logically and spatio-temporally disjoint causes. Contrariwise, the migration
hypothesis proposed here suggests that a fraction of these civilizations will,
upon surviving the filter of natural and artificial catastrophes, essentially
drop out of sight through optimization of computing resources (implying
preferred peripheral distribution in the Galaxy, not wasting energy on inefficient communication, etc.). This can be, in turn, reduced to a small number
of causes, essentially those presented as the assumptions 18 above.
Once adopted as a viable solution to Fermis paradox, the migration
hypothesis presented here has both theoretical and practical consequences.
First of all, inconvenient location of most of ATCs as observed from the Solar System, coupled with realization that distinguishing signal from noise is
much harder than usually thought (Lachmann et al. 2004) and may even
be completely substituted by inscribed-matter messages (Rose and Wright
2004), are sufficient to explain the lack of results in SETI projects so far.
Some of the SETI pioneers have been very well aware of this and warned
about it (notably Sagan 1975); these cautious voices have been consistently
downplayed by the SETI community. We conclude that the conventional radio SETI assuming beamed broadcasts from targets within Solar vicinity (e.g.
Turnbull and Tarter 2003) is ill-founded and has little chance of success on
the present hypothesis. It is a clear and testable prediction of the present hypothesis that the ongoing SETI experiments using this conservative approach
will yield only negative results.
The picture sketched in the present study undermines the basic tenets
of the prevailing SETI philosophy. Outward migration of advanced technological species should be taken into account in any serious SETI project.
Given the likely distances of an ATCs that began migration tens of millions
to billions of years ago (Lineweaver 2001), they are not likely to know of our
development. While their observational capabilities probably allow them to
observe the Solar System, they are looking at it before civilization developed.
It is doubtful, to say the least, that they would waste resources sending messages to planetary systems possessing life, but quite uncertain (in light of
the biological contingency) to develop a technological civilization. Dolphins
and whales are quite intelligent and possibly even human-level conscious (e.g.
Browne 2004), but they do not have the ability to detect signals from ATCs,
and it is uncertain that they will ever evolve such a capacity. By a mirrorimage of such position, unless one has concrete evidence of an ATC at a
given locale, it would be wasteful to direct SETI resources towards them.
Ironically enough, this can offer a rationale to some of the SETI sceptics,
but based on the entirely different overall astrobiological picture and with
completely different practical consequences.
While fully recognizing that patience is a necessary element in any search,
we still wish to argue that the conventional SETI (Tarter 2001; Duric and
20

Field 2003, and references therein), as exemplified by the historical OZMA

Project, as well its later counterparts (META, ARGUS, Phoenix, SERENDIP/
Southern SERENDIP, etc.), notably those conveyed by NASA and the SETI
Institute, is fundamentally flawed. This is emphatically not due to the real
lack of targets, us being alone in the Galaxy, as contact-pessimists in the
mold of Tipler or Mayr have argued. Quite the contrary, it is due to physical
reasons underlying flaws in the conventional SETI wisdom: in a sense the
problem has nothing to do with the universe itself, and everything to do with
our ignorance and prejudices. In this special sense, the flaws in the currently
prevailing views on SETI are less excusable.11
Instead, much stronger emphasis on the ATC manifestations and traces
is the only serious recourse of practical SETI. Even if they are not actively
communicating with us, we could in principle detect them and their astroengineering activities. Their detection signatures may be much older than
their communication signatures. Unless ATCs have taken great lengths to
hide or disguise their IR detection signatures, the terrestrial observers should
still be able to observe them at those wavelengths and those should be distinguishable from normal stellar spectra. The same applies to other un-natural
effects, like the antimatter-burning signatures (Harris 1986, 2002), or recognizable transits of artificial objects (Arnold 2005). Search for mega-projects
such as Dyson shells, Jupiter Brains or stellar engines are most likely to
be successful in the entire spectrum of SETI activities (Slysh 1985; Jugaku,
Noguchi, and Nishimura 1995; Jugaku and Nishimura 2003). Search for such
astro-engineering traces of ATCs should be primarily conducted in the infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum (Dyson 1960; Tilgner and Heinrichsen 1998; Timofeev, Kardashev, and Promyslov 2000). Ironically enough,
surveys in the infrared have been proposed by one of the pioneers of radioastronomy, Nobel-prize winner Charles H. Townes, although on somewhat
different grounds (Townes 1983). Bold and unconventional studies, such as
Harris, Arnolds, Slyshs, or the survey of Jugaku et al. and program proposed by Tilgner and Heinrichsen (1998), represent still a minuscule fraction
of the overall SETI research. We dare suggest that there is no real scientific
reason for such situation: instead, it has emerged due to excessive conservativeness, inertia of thought, overawe of the founding fathers, or some
combination of the three. The unconventional approach with emphasis on
search for ATCs manifestations would loose nothing of the advantages of
11

It is not just the present hypothesis which leads to such a conclusion. Different views
on the evolution of ATCs, not based on the Intelligence Principle and the digital perspective, lead to the same general idea. For example, this applies to the ingenious idea that
ATCs will transfer their cognition into their environment (Karl Schroeder, private communication), following recent studies on the distributed natural cognition (e.g. Hutchins
1996). In these, as in other suggested lines of mainstream ATC development, the approaches currently favored by SETI projects will be fundamentally misguided, i.e. ATCs
remain undetectable by such approaches.

21

conventional SETI before detection (e.g. Tough 1998), but the gains could
be enormous. In accordance with the motto of Heraclitus, we should expect
the unexpected if we desire genuine SETI results; otherwise, we wont find
them (i.e. traces of ATCs).
The hypothesis presented here is falsifiable inter alia by extragalactic
SETI observations. Extragalactic SETI has not been considered very seriously so far (for notable exceptions see Wesson 1990; Annis 1999b). The
reason is, perhaps, the same old comforting prejudice that we should expect
specific (and, conveniently, radio) signals. Since these are not likely forthcoming over intergalactic distances (and two-way communication desired by
SETI pioneers is senseless here in principle), there is no point in even thinking seriously about extragalactic SETI. From the preceding, it is clear how
systematically fallacious such a view is: when we remove the cozy assumption
of specific SETI signals (together with the second-order assumption of their
radio nature), this view collapses. On the contrary, extragalactic SETI would
enable us to probe enormously larger part of physical space as well as the
morphological space of possible evolutionary histories of ATCs. (Of course,
part of what we get ensemble-wise we loose time- and resolution-wise.) In
fact, the definition of Kardashevs Type III civilization should prompt us to
consider it more carefully, at least for a sample of nearby galaxies, visible
at epochs significantly closer to us than the 1.8 Gyr difference between the
median age of terrestrial planets and the age of Earth (All`egre et al. 1995;
Lineweaver 2001). It could be argued (although it is beyond the scope of
the present study) that the null result of extragalactic SETI observations so
far (Annis 1999b) represents a strong argument against the viability of Kardashevs Type III civilizations. While it remains a possibility in the formal
sense of being in agreement with the known laws of physics, it seems that
the type of pan-galactic civilization as envisaged by Kardashev and other
early SETI pioneers is either (i) much more difficult to build (suggesting
that the sample of 103 normal spiral galaxies close enough and observed
in high enough detail is simply too small to detect even a single Type III
civilization), or (ii) simply not worth striving to. In contrast, the concept
of spatially smaller, compact, efficient ATCs motivated by a convergent set
of economic, ecological and/or ethical premises, inhabiting fringes of the luminous matter distribution presents to us more plausible alternative to the
conventional Type III picture. This will remain valid even if (for some entirely different reason) the present hypothesis could not account for Fermis
paradox in the Milky Way. The true test here would be to detect signs of
astro-engineering efforts at the outskirts of nearby spiral galaxies (i.e. those
which are seen at about the same epoch as we are living in), and in their
immediate intergalactic vicinity. Observations of the edges of spiral galaxies
are notoriously difficult (e.g. Bland-Hawthorn, Freeman, and Quinn 1997),
but they are rapidly improving in both quality and quantity. It is quite con22

ceivable that they will give us the first hint about the generic fate of advanced
intelligent communities.
Acknowledgements. Invaluable technical help has been received from
Dusan Indjic, Branislav K. Nikolic, Sasa Nedeljkovic, Vesna Milosevic-Zdjelar,
Maja Bulatovic, Samir Salim, Nick Bostrom, Olga Latinovic, Aleksandar
Zorkic, Milan Bogosavljevic, Aleksandar B. Nedeljkovic, and Vjera Miovic.
Pleasant discussions with Zoran Knezevic, Irena Diklic, Ivana Dragicevic, Zo
ran Zivkovi
c, Anders Sandberg, Fred C. Adams, George Dvorsky, Petar V.
Grujic, Karl Schroeder, Robin Hanson, Masan Bogdanovski, James Hughes,
Tanja Beric-Bjedov, Maja Jerinic, Mark A. Walker, Richard B. Cathcart and
Viorel Badescu have immensely contributed to development of the ideas pre has been partially supported by
sented here. One of the authors (M. M. C.)
the Ministry of Science and Environmental Protection of Serbia through the
project no. 1468, Structure, Kinematics and Dynamics of the Milky Way;
he also uses the opportunity to thank the KoBSON Consortium of Serbian
libraries, which has enabled overcoming of the gap in obtaining the scientific
literature during the tragic 1990s in the Balkans.

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