Scribd
Upload
3 views7 pages

Drilling Cost and Learning Curve Analysis

This document discusses statistical analysis techniques for evaluating drilling costs and performance. It includes definitions and calculations for average, mode, median, variance, and standard deviation to analyze well costs. It also covers learning curve analysis to quantify a company's drilling performance over multiple wells. Learning curve analysis uses constants like potential (C1), learning rate (C2), and operational limit (C3) in an exponential function to predict future well times based on historical data. The document provides an example of learning curve analysis and constants, noting that a C2 between 0.45-0.8 indicates good performance and above 0.8 is excellent. It assigns a task to analyze well times and costs using these techniques.

Uploaded by

Radu Chibzui
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
3 views7 pages

Drilling Cost and Learning Curve Analysis

This document discusses statistical analysis techniques for evaluating drilling costs and performance. It includes definitions and calculations for average, mode, median, variance, and standard deviation to analyze well costs. It also covers learning curve analysis to quantify a company's drilling performance over multiple wells. Learning curve analysis uses constants like potential (C1), learning rate (C2), and operational limit (C3) in an exponential function to predict future well times based on historical data. The document provides an example of learning curve analysis and constants, noting that a C2 between 0.45-0.8 indicates good performance and above 0.8 is excellent. It assigns a task to analyze well times and costs using these techniques.

Uploaded by

Radu Chibzui
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

07.08.

15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Further Calcula,ons

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Sta,s,cs Refresher
Average:

Mode:

Most occurring number
Median:

Middle most number

07.08.15

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Variance
Numerical Value indica;ng to which extent values vary
from the group mean

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Standard Devia,on
Establish norms within your data range
Enables detec;on of extraordinarily small/large values

07.08.15

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Task #1 Well Cos,ng


Given the table with the costs of 20 wells drilled in the
same eld with approximately the same nal depth,
determine the es;mated costs for the next two wells to
be drilled in the eld.

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Task #1 Well Cos,ng


Calcula2on Steps:

Mean
Devia;on about the mean
Variance
Standard Devia;on


07.08.15

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Task #1 Well Cos,ng


Using Excel commands:

Use stdeva to obtain the standard devia;on
Using Excel tools:

Add in Data Analysis Tool
Use the descrip;ve sta;s;cs tool

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Learning Curve Analysis


Quan;fy a companys performance on a drilling
campaign, based on a set of comparable well data
Theory: drilling ;me in an area declines exponen;ally
throughout succession of a campaign

07.08.15

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Learning Curve Analysis


tn is the total ;me to drill the nth well, and C1, C2 and C3
are dened as the learning poten;al, learning rate and
opera;onal limit. C1 implies a readiness, ability to be
prepared, diculty of the area or technology. C2 relates
to how fast the organiza;on learns and C3 is the level of
performance for any company or contractor.

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Learning Curve Analysis


160,0

140,0

120,0

100,0

80,0

60,0

40,0

20,0

0,0
1

3
Days/Average Depth

07.08.15

Learn Curve Func;on

10

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Learning Curve Analysis


Company performance assessed via the constants
C1, C2 and C3 can therefore be improved as a result of
be[er ini;al well planning, more experienced sta, and/
or be[er equipment.
Key to this improvement is based on the informa;on
and knowledge obtained from previous experiences.

07.08.15

11

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Learning Curve Analysis


Example: C1, C2 and C3 are 7.1 days, 0.6 and 5.4 days,
respec;vely. The next predicted ;me for this opera;on is 6.04
days.
On each new well drilled we are therefore trying to achieve the
maximum drilling learning rate (C2) to reduce the gap between
C3 (opera;onal limit). lyoho et al. (2005) revealed that
organiza;ons with C2 between 0.45 and 0.8 show a good
performance and that a C2 greater than 0.8 indicates an excellent
performance. Analyzing our example: the learning rate (C2)
needs to be improved and therefore the organiza;on must learn
to capture experience and technology in such a way that it can be
rapidly transferred to other opera;onal personnel (Bre[ and
Millheim 1986).

07.08.15

12

07.08.15

Chair of Drilling and Completion Engineering

Task #2 - Learning Curve Analysis

07.08.15

Well

Original Days

Original
Depth

1
2
3
4
5
6

133
112
125
81
75
83

10500
10800
11000
10600
10500
10700

Cost/day
C1
C3
C2

USD 88,000
55
80
0.6

13

You might also like