closer communities
June 2012
growing smarter
2012-2016 Subdivision Staging Policy
appendix 4
School Capacity Forecasting
reducing traffic
connected neighborhoods
staging growth
Montgomery County Planning Department
The Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission
[Link]
2012 Subdivision Staging Policy
Appendix 1
Pace and Pattern of Development
Appendix 2
TPAR Report
Appendix 3
Developer Contributions to Infrastructure
Appendix 4
School Capacity Forecasting
Appendix 5
Draft County Council Resolution
Methodology
The SSP defines adequate school capacity by establishing thresholds for school use. These thresholds are
used in the annual school test to determine whether residential development within a particular area
will be subject to an assessment (school facility payment) or moratorium.
The adequate school capacity calculation compares projected enrollment numbers with existing and
planned facility capacity. The current SSP school test uses a definition of facility capacity based on
Montgomery County Public School (MCPS) program capacity. Program capacity is the number of
students planned per classroom, per school level (elementary, middle, or high school) based on
curriculum standards.
Projected capacity figures used in the annual school test are based on existing capacity and planned
capacity; planned capacity is the capacity funded in the six-year Capital Improvements Program (CIP).
Projected enrollment is based on three factors: the number of children born, aging of the school-age
population (natural increase), and the number of families moving into and out of the County (migration).
These factors are interrelated and, in some years, difficult to predict. Since 2007, there has been a
marked increase in school system enrollmentespecially at the elementary school level. One factor in
this growth was the State mandate for public schools to provide full-day kindergarten programs.
Predicting enrollment by the aging of students from kindergarten through grade 12 is the most
straightforward component of the forecast. Past records of the rate of change between grades show
that, at most grade levels, enrollment can be accurately predicted by simply moving cohorts forward
one grade for each year of the forecast.
Migration is the least predictable component of enrollment change. Migration is driven by economic
forces tied to housing and job opportunities making it a more variable element of enrollment change.
Over the past several years, the County has experienced a net in-migration of students each year. Part of
this in-migration is due to a significant increase in students entering MCPS from nonpublic schools. This
is the fourth year in a row in which the County has experienced a net gain in enrollment of 500 or more
students from nonpublic schools.
The turnover of existing homes and apartments and the occupancy of new housing all contribute to new
households in the County and children in the school system. There are many more existing homes, and
rental units, than there are new residential units in any given year. Therefore, turnover of existing
residential units has a much greater impact on enrollment change than new home sales and new
apartment rentals.
Whatever the level of activity in the housing market, MCPS factors it into enrollment forecasts. MCPS
tracks new housing incorporating subdivision applications into school enrollment forecasts once they
have received preliminary plan approval. Once a subdivision plan has approval, developers and builders
are contacted regularly to determine construction schedules and estimated completion dates.
The enrollment factors are, in some years, difficult to predict. One unexpected consequence of the
recession was an unprecedented surge in enrollment that began in 2008. This sudden change in the
enrollment trend was particularly pronounced in down-County elementary schools (the Bethesda-Chevy
Chase, Walter Johnson, and Richard Montgomery clusters), communities with little new housing
construction. Catching up to these rapid increases in enrollment will take several years as school
capacity projects are planned and funds requested through the CIP.
The annual school test evaluates school utilization levels in all 25 school cluster areas at the elementary,
middle, and high school levels (referred to in the SSP resolution as grade levels). Each year, MCPS
prepares the data on school cluster utilizations for the annual school test, the Planning Board adopts the
results effective July 1, and the standards apply to the following fiscal year.
The SSP defines adequate school capacity by establishing thresholds for school use. These thresholds are
used in the annual school test to determine whether residential development within a particular area
will be subject to an assessment (school facility payment) or moratorium.
The current SSP test thresholds are:
School Facility Payment Threshold - If projected enrollment, five years in the future, at any grade
level in any cluster will exceed 105 percent utilization but does not exceed 120 percent utilization,
the Board may approve a residential subdivision in that cluster during the next fiscal year if the
applicant commits to pay a School Facilities Payment as provided in County law before receiving a
building permit for any building in that subdivision.
Moratorium Threshold - If projected enrollment at any grade level in any cluster will exceed 120
percent utilization, the Planning Board must not approve any residential subdivisions in that cluster
during the next fiscal year.
There are a few exceptions to these requirements. The Planning Board may approve a subdivision in a
cluster in moratorium if:
the subdivision consists solely of multifamily housing and related facilities for elderly or
handicapped persons
multifamily housing units are located in the age-restricted section of a planned retirement
community.
the subdivision consists of no more than three housing units and the applicant commits to a School
Facilities Payment as otherwise required before receiving a building permit.
A new component introduced in the 2007-2009 Growth Policy was the administration of a school
capacity ceiling, commonly referred to as the School Queue. If a subdivision would cause a cluster to
exceed the 120 percent threshold at any level, only the number of dwelling units that would reach the
threshold would be allowed. Similarly, if a subdivision would cause a cluster to exceed the 105 percent
threshold at any level, then the number of dwelling units which would exceed the threshold would make
a School Facilities Payment to proceed to approval.
School Test Results
The Montgomery County Subdivision Staging Policy continues to monitor school capacity by means of an
annual test of school capacity. As stated above, the school test compares projected enrollment five
years into the future with projected capacity for each of the 25 high school clusters at the elementary,
middle and high school levels. The school test results are finalized in May of each year upon the
Councils adoption of the Capital Improvements Program. The school test determines if residential
subdivisions in any school cluster should be subject to either a school facilities payment or a
moratorium. If projected enrollment at any level exceeds 105 percent of program capacity, residential
subdivisions in the affected cluster will be required to make a school facility payment. In addition, if
projected enrollment at any level exceeds 120 percent of program capacity, residential subdivisions in
the affected cluster will be under moratorium.
For FY2013, the total number of clusters exceeding 105 percent program capacity is fifteen, five of
which exceed at more than one school level (see Figure 1). Residential development in these fifteen
clusters will be subject to a school facility payment. For those clusters inadequate at more than one
school level, a school facility payment will be required for each inadequate school level. No school
cluster exceeds the 120 percent program capacity ceiling. Therefore, residential subdivisions will not be
under moratorium in any school cluster.
According to the analysis, a school facility payment will be required in the following clusters at the
elementary school level: Blake, Gaithersburg, Magruder, Paint Branch, Quince Orchard, Rockville, and
Seneca Valley. At the middle school level, residential development in the Blair, Walter Johnson,
Rockville, Springbrook, Wheaton, and Whitman clusters will require a school facility payment. And, at
the high school level, a school facility payment will be required in the Bethesda-Chevy Chase, Blake,
Walter Johnson, Northwood, Quince Orchard, Whitman, and Wootton clusters. A school facility
payment will be levied at each school level found to be inadequate.
By comparison, during FY2012, thirteen school clusters required the payment of a school facility fee with
eight school clusters exceeding capacity at more than one school level. One cluster was under
moratorium for residential development in FY2012, the Richard Montgomery cluster. Following the
change to program capacity and the tighter school facility fee threshold adopted in the 2007-2009
Growth Policy, a school facility fee has been required in several school clusters each year, with a handful
of clusters requiring a payment at more than one school level. Figure 2 shows status of all 25 clusters
since 2007.
The Annual School Test findings for FY2013 are attached in Tables 3 and 4. These tables (along with the
SSP Resolution adopted by the Council in November 2009) will constitute Montgomery Countys
Subdivision Staging Policy as it relates to school capacity until the next Subdivision Staging Policy is
adopted later this year.
Figure 1: School Clusters Requiring a School Facility Payment FY 2013
Figure 2: School Cluster Status by Level since FY 2007
# Cluster
1 Bethesda-Chevy Chase
2 Blair
3 Blake
4 Churchill
5 Clarksburg
6 Damascus
7 Einstein
8 Gaithersburg
9 Kennedy
10 Magruder
11 Northwest
12 Northwood
13 Paint Branch
14 Poolesville
15 Quince Orchard
16 Richard Montgomery
17 Rockville
18 Seneca Valley
19 Sherwood
20 Springbrook
21 Walter Johnson
22 Watkins Mill
23 Wheaton
24 Whitman
25 Wootton
Level
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
ES
MS
HS
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
adequate
payment
required
moratorium
Table 3: Subdivision Staging Policy - Results of School Test for FY 2013
Reflects County Council Adopted FY 2013 Capital Budget and FY 20132018 Capital Improvements Program (CIP)
Effective July 1, 2012
Cluster Outcomes by Level
School Test Level
Description
Elementary Inadequate
Middle Inadequate
High Inadequate
Clusters over 105% utilization
5-year test
Blake (106.7%)
Gaithersburg (110.0%)
Magruder (105.4%)
Paint Branch (114.5%)
Quince Orchard (108.9%)
Rockville (113.3%)
Seneca Valley (111.9%)
Blair (106.9%)
Walter Johnson (112.3%)
Rockville (115.4%)
Springbrook (106.7%)
Wheaton (109.4%)
Whitman (116.0%)
B-CC ( 115.8%) *
Blake (106.7%)
Walter Johnson (106.3%)
Northwood (111.5%)
Quince Orchard (107.1%)
Whitman (109.3%)
Wootton (107.6%)
Effective July 1, 2012
School facility payment
required in inadequate clusters
to proceed.
Clusters over 120% utilization
Moratorium requred in clusters
that are inadequate.
Test year 2017-18
5-year test
Effective July 1, 2012
Test year 2017-18
* Utilization of B-CC HS includes a "placeholder" capital project of ten classrooms, pending a request for an addition in a future CIP.
Table 4: Subdivision Staging Policy FY 2013 School Test - Cluster Utilizations in 20172018
Reflects County Council Adopted FY 2013 Capital Budget and FY 20132018 Capital Improvements Program (CIP)
Effective July 1, 2012
Elementary School Test: Percent Utilization >105% School Facility Payment and >120% Moratorium
Cluster Area
Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Montgomery Blair
James Hubert Blake
Winston Churchill
Clarksburg
Damascus
Albert Einstein
Gaithersburg
Walter Johnson
John F. Kennedy
Col. Zadok Magruder
Richard Montgomery
Northwest
Northwood
Paint Branch
Poolesville
Quince Orchard
Rockville
Seneca Valley
Sherwood
Springbrook
Watkins Mill
Wheaton
Walt Whitman
Thomas S. Wootton
100% MCPS Program
Projected August 2017 Capacity With Adopted FY
Cluster Percent
Enrollment
13-18 CIP
Utilization in 2017
3,501
3,810
91.9%
4,222
4,154
101.6%
2,585
2,423
106.7%
2,650
2,887
91.8%
4,029
3,998
100.8%
2,395
2,409
99.4%
2,760
2,639
104.6%
4,001
3,637
110.0%
4,089
3,946
103.6%
2,773
2,910
95.3%
2,683
2,546
105.4%
2,745
2,978
92.2%
4,249
4,309
98.6%
3,464
3,376
102.6%
2,464
2,152
114.5%
652
758
86.0%
3,035
2,787
108.9%
2,609
2,303
113.3%
2,401
2,145
111.9%
2,017
2,427
83.1%
3,295
3,151
104.6%
2,663
2,721
97.9%
3,156
3,304
95.5%
2,554
2,560
99.8%
2,893
3,246
89.1%
73,576
School Test Result
Capacity is:
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Inadequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Cluster is?
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
Open
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
School Payment
School Payment
School Payment
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Table 4 (continued)
Middle School Test: Percent Utilization >105% School Facility Payment and >120% Moratorium
Cluster Area
Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Montgomery Blair
James Hubert Blake
Winston Churchill
Clarksburg
Damascus
Albert Einstein
Gaithersburg
Walter Johnson
John F. Kennedy
Col. Zadok Magruder
Richard Montgomery
Northwest
Northwood
Paint Branch
Poolesville
Quince Orchard
Rockville
Seneca Valley
Sherwood
Springbrook
Watkins Mill
Wheaton
Walt Whitman
Thomas S. Wootton
100% MCPS Program
Projected August 2017 Capacity With Adopted FY
Cluster Percent
Enrollment
13-18 CIP
Utilization in 2017
1,608
2,007
80.1%
2,455
2,296
106.9%
1,301
1,314
99.0%
1,345
1,593
84.4%
1,871
2,381
78.6%
758
740
102.4%
1,234
1,332
92.6%
1,711
1,797
95.2%
2,057
1,831
112.3%
1,411
1,436
98.3%
1,277
1,637
78.0%
1,331
1,444
92.2%
2,135
2,052
104.0%
1,453
1,459
99.6%
1,279
1,228
104.2%
317
459
69.1%
1,453
1,688
86.1%
1,099
952
115.4%
1,302
1,485
87.7%
1,127
1,501
75.1%
1,361
1,275
106.7%
1,239
1,359
91.2%
1,738
1,588
109.4%
1,474
1,271
116.0%
1,434
1,567
91.5%
School Test Result
Capacity is:
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Inadequate
Inadequate
Adequate
Cluster is?
Open
School Payment
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
Open
School Payment
Open
School Payment
School Payment
Open
37,692
High School Test: Percent Utilization >105% School Facility Payment and >120% Moratorium
100% MCPS Program
Projected August 2017 Capacity With Adopted FY
Cluster Percent
School Test Result
Cluster Area
Enrollment
13-18 CIP
Utilization in 2017
Capacity is:
Cluster is?
Bethesda-Chevy Chase*
2,162
1,867
115.8%
Inadequate
School Payment
Montgomery Blair
2,980
2,875
103.7%
Adequate
Open
James Hubert Blake
1,840
1,724
106.7%
Inadequate
School Payment
Winston Churchill
1,860
1,941
95.8%
Adequate
Open
Clarksburg
1,933
1,971
98.1%
Adequate
Open
Damascus
1,267
1,479
85.7%
Adequate
Open
Albert Einstein
1,468
1,618
90.7%
Adequate
Open
Gaithersburg
2,087
2,284
91.4%
Adequate
Open
Walter Johnson
2,437
2,292
106.3%
Inadequate
School Payment
John F. Kennedy
1,694
1,793
94.5%
Adequate
Open
Col. Zadok Magruder
1,626
1,896
85.8%
Adequate
Open
Richard Montgomery
2,301
2,232
103.1%
Adequate
Open
Northwest
2,246
2,151
104.4%
Adequate
Open
Northwood
1,686
1,512
111.5%
Inadequate
School Payment
Paint Branch
1,881
1,899
99.1%
Adequate
Open
Poolesville
1,097
1,152
95.2%
Adequate
Open
Quince Orchard
1,903
1,777
107.1%
Inadequate
School Payment
Rockville
1,499
1,530
98.0%
Adequate
Open
Seneca Valley
1,376
1,694
81.2%
Adequate
Open
Sherwood
1,868
2,013
92.8%
Adequate
Open
Springbrook
1,806
2,082
86.7%
Adequate
Open
Watkins Mill
1,499
1,980
75.7%
Adequate
Open
Wheaton
1,388
1,604
86.5%
Adequate
Open
Walt Whitman
1,998
1,828
109.3%
Inadequate
School Payment
Thomas S. Wootton
2,249
2,091
107.6%
Inadequate
School Payment
* Capacity at Bethesda-Chevy Chase HS includes a "placeholder" capital project of ten classrooms, pending a request for an addition in a future CIP.
June 2012
growing smarter
2012-2016 Subdivision Staging Policy
appendix 4
School Capacity Forecasting
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