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Portfolio Credit Risk - Random Correlation Matrix

Credit Risk

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
6 views20 pages

Portfolio Credit Risk - Random Correlation Matrix

Credit Risk

Uploaded by

parthasarathi_in
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

AAA

AAA
AA+
AA
AAA+
A
ABBB+
BBB
BBBBB+
BB
BBB+
B
BCCC
CC
C
D

AA+
AA
AAA+
A
1 -0.221469 -0.026234 0.159216 -0.439514 0.418835
-0.221469
1 -0.400079 0.130926 0.504239 -0.437565
-0.026234 -0.400079
1 -0.200044 -0.42215 0.029871
0.159216 0.130926 -0.200044
1 -0.149215 0.175206
-0.439514 0.504239 -0.42215 -0.149215
1 -0.430781
0.418835 -0.437565 0.029871 0.175206 -0.430781
1
0.097666 -0.152319 -0.111567 0.191413 -0.084181 -0.046132
0.154118 0.026505 -0.084162 -0.174854 0.050415 0.001251
-0.323569 -0.044736 -0.079142 -0.285228 -0.128826 -0.091871
-0.086489 0.047081 0.334236 -0.459798 -0.181328 -0.108437
0.050834 0.442359 0.027835 0.301268 0.25393 -0.03343
-0.160272 0.393919 -0.018508 -0.293427 0.288466 -0.571755
0.333603 -0.279666 -0.003253 -0.098089 -0.266839 0.424545
0.101052 -0.105336 0.154094 0.084153 -0.164327 0.109272
-0.341577 0.097582 -0.388015 0.242895 0.278864 -0.347539
0.30949 -0.097848 -0.196846 -0.066005 -0.027515 0.018221
-0.180964 0.214972 -0.561372 0.021149 0.447572 0.001357
-0.205203 0.264025 0.399391 -0.400094
-0.0677 -0.369367
-0.085844 -0.342725 0.168028 0.021892 -0.120907 0.418644
-0.145956 -0.198552 0.185424 -0.068713 0.243997 -0.559393

ABBB+
BBB
BBBBB+
BB
BBB+
0.097666 0.154118 -0.323569 -0.086489 0.050834 -0.160272 0.333603 0.101052
-0.152319 0.026505 -0.044736 0.047081 0.442359 0.393919 -0.279666 -0.105336
-0.111567 -0.084162 -0.079142 0.334236 0.027835 -0.018508 -0.003253 0.154094
0.191413 -0.174854 -0.285228 -0.459798 0.301268 -0.293427 -0.098089 0.084153
-0.084181 0.050415 -0.128826 -0.181328 0.25393 0.288466 -0.266839 -0.164327
-0.046132 0.001251 -0.091871 -0.108437 -0.03343 -0.571755 0.424545 0.109272
1 0.106055 0.023038 -0.20305 -0.16966 0.346112 -0.062289 0.126506
0.106055
1 -0.056925 0.188582 -0.092546 -0.123474 0.005464 0.241065
0.023038 -0.056925
1 0.281697 -0.480999 0.095786 -0.159101 -0.002308
-0.20305 0.188582 0.281697
1 -0.128102 0.107321 0.233652 0.233549
-0.16966 -0.092546 -0.480999 -0.128102
1 0.10205 -0.056823 -0.215487
0.346112 -0.123474 0.095786 0.107321 0.10205
1 -0.195978 -0.17217
-0.062289 0.005464 -0.159101 0.233652 -0.056823 -0.195978
1 -0.231073
0.126506 0.241065 -0.002308 0.233549 -0.215487 -0.17217 -0.231073
1
0.042208 -0.06337 0.134021 -0.118182 0.117481 0.134848 -0.193863 -0.053367
0.345361 -0.04959 -0.161326 0.106726 -0.193106 0.102566 0.540138 -0.178826
0.118009 -0.027263 0.057301 0.003567 0.190519 0.132642 0.030292 -0.233715
-0.224965 0.049367 -0.087056 0.586065 0.168721 0.283922 -0.128237 -0.056735
-0.548688 -0.241491 0.06272 0.032882 -0.027682 -0.637184 0.262175 -0.068401
0.00735 -0.028092 -0.162457 -0.204208 -0.010417 0.147556 -0.341318 -0.224112

B
BCCC
CC
C
D
-0.341577 0.30949 -0.180964 -0.205203 -0.085844 -0.145956
0.097582 -0.097848 0.214972 0.264025 -0.342725 -0.198552
-0.388015 -0.196846 -0.561372 0.399391 0.168028 0.185424
0.242895 -0.066005 0.021149 -0.400094 0.021892 -0.068713
0.278864 -0.027515 0.447572
-0.0677 -0.120907 0.243997
-0.347539 0.018221 0.001357 -0.369367 0.418644 -0.559393
0.042208 0.345361 0.118009 -0.224965 -0.548688 0.00735
-0.06337 -0.04959 -0.027263 0.049367 -0.241491 -0.028092
0.134021 -0.161326 0.057301 -0.087056 0.06272 -0.162457
-0.118182 0.106726 0.003567 0.586065 0.032882 -0.204208
0.117481 -0.193106 0.190519 0.168721 -0.027682 -0.010417
0.134848 0.102566 0.132642 0.283922 -0.637184 0.147556
-0.193863 0.540138 0.030292 -0.128237 0.262175 -0.341318
-0.053367 -0.178826 -0.233715 -0.056735 -0.068401 -0.224112
1 0.070097 0.539935 -0.089492 -0.224127 0.213711
0.070097
1 0.161094 0.106431 -0.259159 -0.136353
0.539935 0.161094
1 -0.214003 -0.241348 -0.088101
-0.089492 0.106431 -0.214003
1 -0.144815 0.083323
-0.224127 -0.259159 -0.241348 -0.144815
1 -0.123524
0.213711 -0.136353 -0.088101 0.083323 -0.123524
1

[Link] Exposure
Weights PD
AAA
1,154,172.76
1.34%
0.00%
AA+
7,465,389.06
8.69%
0.03%
AA
3,230,347.74
3.76%
0.03%
AA2,454,446.60
2.86%
0.03%
A+
6,865,322.46
7.99%
0.70%
A
1,534,429.39
1.79%
0.70%
A663,563.63
0.77%
0.70%
BBB+
5,761,189.94
6.70%
1.48%
BBB
1,064,356.08
1.24%
1.48%
BBB1,807,724.13
2.10%
1.48%
BB+
1,557,220.48
1.81%
4.98%
BB
6,511,702.91
7.58%
4.98%
BB6,752,740.90
7.86%
4.98%
B+
9,425,868.83
10.97%
8.86%
B
8,028,625.15
9.34%
8.86%
B622,731.35
0.72%
8.86%
CCC
9,037,938.96
10.52%
18.89%
CC
37,663.26
0.04%
18.89%
C
9,456,525.20
11.00%
18.89%
D
2,516,245.06
2.93%
100%
Total exposure
85,948,203.90

Krishnan Chari:
To note
1) In the absence of any real market
Theory. The algorithm for generating

2. As we generated a synthetic Rand


individual asset exposure level. This

3. In reality, Banks may never acheiv

4. However this template enables th


credit corrrelations

LGD

[Link] [Link]
10%
0%
0
10%
0%
0.00029991
10%
0%
0.00029991
20%
0%
0.00029991
45%
7%
0.006951
60%
8%
0.006951
60%
10%
0.006951
60%
10%
0.01458096
60%
10%
0.01458096
75%
10%
0.01458096
75%
10%
0.04731996
75%
10%
0.04731996
75%
10%
0.04731996
75%
10%
0.08075004
75%
10%
0.08075004
75%
10%
0.08075004
90%
10%
0.15321679
90%
10%
0.15321679
95%
10%
0.15321679
100%
10%
0

Krishnan Chari:
To note
1) In the absence of any real market Default correlation data , a definite positive correlation matrix has been simulated with the he
Theory. The algorithm for generating Random Matrices using Eigen values are available in opensoure R platforms also.
2. As we generated a synthetic Random Matrice with sufficient negative correlations between rating categories, the Credit VaR at
individual asset exposure level. This situation arises as the synthetic correlation matrix has negative correlation numbers in equal
3. In reality, Banks may never acheive this level of diversification.

4. However this template enables the Bank to calibrate an internal credit correlations matrix and use the same in the mdoel to gen
credit corrrelations

[Link]
223.96
96.91
147.27
21,625.77
6,444.60
2,786.97
51,159.37
9,451.48
20,065.74
58,162.19
243,212.10
252,214.87
626,348.98
533,502.14
41,380.50
1,536,540.00
6,403.13
1,697,020.73
2,516,245.06
7,623,031.77
Undiversified VaR
Diversified VaR ( Factoring
default Asset correlations)
Expected Losses
Economic Capital

[Link]([Link]=0)
12,928.49
5,594.29
8,501.18
299,061.63
84,913.17
37,550.67
472,598.30
87,310.59
177,872.98
276,806.52
1,157,499.43
1,200,345.57
2,196,083.77
1,870,547.29
145,086.91
3,417,674.84
14,242.27
3,748,986.35
795,706.55
16,009,310.79
16,009,310.79

4,946,279.50
7,623,031.77
-2,676,752.27

e positive correlation matrix has been simulated with the help of MATLAB functions using Random Matrix
ues are available in opensoure R platforms also.

e correlations between rating categories, the Credit VaR at portfolio level is lesser than the expected losses at
orrelation matrix has negative correlation numbers in equal symmetry thereby creating an ideal diversification.

dit correlations matrix and use the same in the mdoel to generate Portfolio Credit Risk using default or asset

Random Matrix

expected losses at
ideal diversification.

g default or asset

AAA
AAA
AA+
AA
AAA+
A
ABBB+
BBB
BBBBB+
BB
BBB+
B
BCCC
CC
C
D

AA+
1.00
-0.22
-0.03
0.16
-0.44
0.42
0.10
0.15
-0.32
-0.09
0.05
-0.16
0.33
0.10
-0.34
0.31
-0.18
-0.21
-0.09
-0.15

AA
-0.22
1.00
-0.40
0.13
0.50
-0.44
-0.15
0.03
-0.04
0.05
0.44
0.39
-0.28
-0.11
0.10
-0.10
0.21
0.26
-0.34
-0.20

AA-0.03
-0.40
1.00
-0.20
-0.42
0.03
-0.11
-0.08
-0.08
0.33
0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.15
-0.39
-0.20
-0.56
0.40
0.17
0.19

A+
0.16
0.13
-0.20
1.00
-0.15
0.18
0.19
-0.17
-0.29
-0.46
0.30
-0.29
-0.10
0.08
0.24
-0.07
0.02
-0.40
0.02
-0.07

A
-0.44
0.50
-0.42
-0.15
1.00
-0.43
-0.08
0.05
-0.13
-0.18
0.25
0.29
-0.27
-0.16
0.28
-0.03
0.45
-0.07
-0.12
0.24

0.42
-0.44
0.03
0.18
-0.43
1.00
-0.05
0.00
-0.09
-0.11
-0.03
-0.57
0.42
0.11
-0.35
0.02
0.00
-0.37
0.42
-0.56

A-

BBB+
0.10
-0.15
-0.11
0.19
-0.08
-0.05
1.00
0.11
0.02
-0.20
-0.17
0.35
-0.06
0.13
0.04
0.35
0.12
-0.22
-0.55
0.01

0.15
0.03
-0.08
-0.17
0.05
0.00
0.11
1.00
-0.06
0.19
-0.09
-0.12
0.01
0.24
-0.06
-0.05
-0.03
0.05
-0.24
-0.03

BBB

BBB-0.32
-0.04
-0.08
-0.29
-0.13
-0.09
0.02
-0.06
1.00
0.28
-0.48
0.10
-0.16
0.00
0.13
-0.16
0.06
-0.09
0.06
-0.16

BB+
-0.09
0.05
0.33
-0.46
-0.18
-0.11
-0.20
0.19
0.28
1.00
-0.13
0.11
0.23
0.23
-0.12
0.11
0.00
0.59
0.03
-0.20

BB
0.05
0.44
0.03
0.30
0.25
-0.03
-0.17
-0.09
-0.48
-0.13
1.00
0.10
-0.06
-0.22
0.12
-0.19
0.19
0.17
-0.03
-0.01

BB-0.16
0.39
-0.02
-0.29
0.29
-0.57
0.35
-0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
1.00
-0.20
-0.17
0.13
0.10
0.13
0.28
-0.64
0.15

B+
0.33
-0.28
0.00
-0.10
-0.27
0.42
-0.06
0.01
-0.16
0.23
-0.06
-0.20
1.00
-0.23
-0.19
0.54
0.03
-0.13
0.26
-0.34

0.10
-0.11
0.15
0.08
-0.16
0.11
0.13
0.24
0.00
0.23
-0.22
-0.17
-0.23
1.00
-0.05
-0.18
-0.23
-0.06
-0.07
-0.22

B-0.34
0.10
-0.39
0.24
0.28
-0.35
0.04
-0.06
0.13
-0.12
0.12
0.13
-0.19
-0.05
1.00
0.07
0.54
-0.09
-0.22
0.21

CCC
0.31
-0.10
-0.20
-0.07
-0.03
0.02
0.35
-0.05
-0.16
0.11
-0.19
0.10
0.54
-0.18
0.07
1.00
0.16
0.11
-0.26
-0.14

CC
-0.18
0.21
-0.56
0.02
0.45
0.00
0.12
-0.03
0.06
0.00
0.19
0.13
0.03
-0.23
0.54
0.16
1.00
-0.21
-0.24
-0.09

C
-0.21
0.26
0.40
-0.40
-0.07
-0.37
-0.22
0.05
-0.09
0.59
0.17
0.28
-0.13
-0.06
-0.09
0.11
-0.21
1.00
-0.14
0.08

D
-0.09
-0.34
0.17
0.02
-0.12
0.42
-0.55
-0.24
0.06
0.03
-0.03
-0.64
0.26
-0.07
-0.22
-0.26
-0.24
-0.14
1.00
-0.12

-0.15
-0.20
0.19
-0.07
0.24
-0.56
0.01
-0.03
-0.16
-0.20
-0.01
0.15
-0.34
-0.22
0.21
-0.14
-0.09
0.08
-0.12
1.00

Vt

0.00

12928.49

5594.29

1.00
-0.22
-0.03
0.16
-0.44
0.42
0.10
0.15
-0.32
-0.09
0.05
-0.16
0.33
0.10
-0.34
0.31
-0.18
-0.21
-0.09
-0.15

-0.22
1.00
-0.40
0.13
0.50
-0.44
-0.15
0.03
-0.04
0.05
0.44
0.39
-0.28
-0.11
0.10
-0.10
0.21
0.26
-0.34
-0.20

-0.03
-0.40
1.00
-0.20
-0.42
0.03
-0.11
-0.08
-0.08
0.33
0.03
-0.02
0.00
0.15
-0.39
-0.20
-0.56
0.40
0.17
0.19

-1267148.07 -387952.7

-1685416

1x20
Result 1

Resultant 1x1
20X1
0.00
12928.49
5594.29
8501.18
299061.63
84913.17
37550.67
472598.30
87310.59

177872.98
276806.52

1157499.43

SQRT

1200345.57
2196083.77
1870547.29
145086.91
3417674.84
14242.27
3748986.35
795706.55

8501.18 299061.63

0.16
0.13
-0.20
1.00
-0.15
0.18
0.19
-0.17
-0.29
-0.46
0.30
-0.29
-0.10
0.08
0.24
-0.07
0.02
-0.40
0.02
-0.07

-0.44
0.50
-0.42
-0.15
1.00
-0.43
-0.08
0.05
-0.13
-0.18
0.25
0.29
-0.27
-0.16
0.28
-0.03
0.45
-0.07
-0.12
0.24

84913.17

0.42
-0.44
0.03
0.18
-0.43
1.00
-0.05
0.00
-0.09
-0.11
-0.03
-0.57
0.42
0.11
-0.35
0.02
0.00
-0.37
0.42
-0.56

146756.739512549 1752750.6 478456.66

24465680907263.90
4,946,279.5015

Comment
Portfolio diversified VAR=Unexpected Losses after
taking into account Default Correlations/Asset
Correlations

Due to non availability of true default correlations


across rating grades or asset classes, Correlation
Matrice was generated under suitable constraints using
the Random Matrix Theory and simulation using
MATLAB function

37550.67 472598.30

0.10
-0.15
-0.11
0.19
-0.08
-0.05
1.00
0.11
0.02
-0.20
-0.17
0.35
-0.06
0.13
0.04
0.35
0.12
-0.22
-0.55
0.01

0.15
0.03
-0.08
-0.17
0.05
0.00
0.11
1.00
-0.06
0.19
-0.09
-0.12
0.01
0.24
-0.06
-0.05
-0.03
0.05
-0.24
-0.03

87310.59 177872.98 276806.52

-0.32
-0.04
-0.08
-0.29
-0.13
-0.09
0.02
-0.06
1.00
0.28
-0.48
0.10
-0.16
0.00
0.13
-0.16
0.06
-0.09
0.06
-0.16

-0.09
0.05
0.33
-0.46
-0.18
-0.11
-0.20
0.19
0.28
1.00
-0.13
0.11
0.23
0.23
-0.12
0.11
0.00
0.59
0.03
-0.20

0.05
0.44
0.03
0.30
0.25
-0.03
-0.17
-0.09
-0.48
-0.13
1.00
0.10
-0.06
-0.22
0.12
-0.19
0.19
0.17
-0.03
-0.01

1157499.43

-0.16
0.39
-0.02
-0.29
0.29
-0.57
0.35
-0.12
0.10
0.11
0.10
1.00
-0.20
-0.17
0.13
0.10
0.13
0.28
-0.64
0.15

-941789.84 -259760.22 371044.29 876962.71 553343.65 -952177.81786

1200345.57 2196083.77 1870547.29

0.33
-0.28
0.00
-0.10
-0.27
0.42
-0.06
0.01
-0.16
0.23
-0.06
-0.20
1.00
-0.23
-0.19
0.54
0.03
-0.13
0.26
-0.34

0.10
-0.11
0.15
0.08
-0.16
0.11
0.13
0.24
0.00
0.23
-0.22
-0.17
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145086.91 3417674.84

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14242.27

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958749.02918 420045.385 2910630.42 53932.4136 3333401.81 -1186731.87

3748986.35

795706.55

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1658906.03 -361427.766

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