Climate Change Issues in Bangladesh

&
Need for Adaptation to Climate Change

Dr. Fazle Rabbi Sadeque Ahmed

frsa1962@[Link]

Climate Change Specialist

Palli Karma Sahayak Foundation (PKSF)
18 April, 2012

Bangladesh: Country context and

vulnerability
Recognized globally as most vulnerable to Climate Change
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The IPCC has identified Bangladesh, a land of low-lying alluvial

plain, as one of the most vulnerable least developed countries.
According to the Mortality Risk Index of the UN, Bangladesh is one
the top of the vulnerable countries due to flood and cyclone.
A recently published report of the Maple Craft of the UK, which
has conducted a survey on 170 countries with using 42 indicators,
revealed that Bangladesh is on the top of among 16 countries that
are most vulnerable to climate change in next 30 years.
Reports published by German Watch and Climate Vulnerability
Monitor 2010: The State of the Climate Crisis have also found
Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries.

So Bangladesh needs extensive adaptive measures to

survive and to sustain

Bangladesh: Country context and

vulnerability (contd.)
South Asian least developed country
Youngest and most active Deltaic landscape, 80% floodplain
Population density very high (1045/km2), sixth largest
densely populated country in the world

High level of Poverty (less than $1 a day 29%, less than $2

a day 84%), more than 35% live below the poverty line

Disaster prone, people are exposed to hazards

Natural resources based (predominantly agrarian) economy

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: OBSERVED

IN BANGLADESH

Temperature extremes

Erratic rainfall

Increased number of severe flood

Increased frequency of cyclone and salinity intrusion

More river bank and coastal erosion

Population Vulnerable to Impact of Climate Change

Barind Tract: Drought

5.038 million people under threat

Haor Basin: Flash Flood

20 million population
Continue.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: BANGLADESH

Population Vulnerable to Impact of Climate Change

Coastal Zone: SLR, Cyclone, Salinity

35.8 million (28% of total population), among these

72 offshore islands with an area of 4200 km2 and over 3

million people are extremely vulnerable

About 18 percent households of the Sundarban impact zone

are dependent on Sundarban resources (shrimp fry collectors,
honey collectors, golpata collectors, shell/crab collectors and
medicinal plant collectors.

Around 0.5 million households (family members 2.7 million)

primary income source is fishing (losing working days because
of rough weather in the Bay).
Over 160,000 coastal fishermen and estimated 185,000
shrimp fry collector are involved in marine fisheries.

Impact on Agriculture
Resulting into---

MORE RAINFALL

GLACIAR MELTING

MORE CYCLONE

HUMID / WARM
CLIMATE

SEA LEVEL RISE

LOWER RAINFALL

Frequent & Severe Flood,

Higher river erosion
Increased sedimentation

Increased River flow

( warm season)
Lower flow (once glacier
melted)
Increased saline intrusion

Impact on Agriculture
& allied sectors
Agr; land inundation &
erosion
Damage to crop, fishery.
livestock
Agr. Input loss ( fert, seeds
etc.)
Agr. Land inundation
Scarcity of water for
irrigation
Soil degradation ( more
salinity)

More storm surge

Higher wind speed
Saline water intrusion

Direct loss to crop, fishery,

& livestock
Soil becomes infertile
Scarcity of fresh water
(irrigation)

Rise in Temperature.
More wet climate

Rise in insect infestation

Crop and cattle disease
Less evapo-transpiration

-Food
insecurity
-Nutrition
deficiency
-Increased
poverty
-Poor
health
-Scarce
Livelihood
-Migration

POOR

Land inundation
Salt water intrusion
Increased soil salinity

Droughts condition
Soil degradation
Fall in water table

Agriculture land loss

Scarcity of irrigation water
Soil degradation (more
salinity)

Irrigation water scarcity

Soil nutrient deficiency
More Disease (cattle/crop)

NATIONA
L
DEVELO
PM-ENT

Climate Change Impacts on Human Health

Types of Health Impacts

|

Direct health consequences

9

Infectious/pathogenic disorders
9

|
9

mortality, morbidity by extreme events

like Cyclone and storm surges

diarrhea , cholera, dengue, vector

borne diseases

Nutritional disorders
Malnutrition

Psychological disorders

Mental and behavioral changes

IMPACT ON INFRASTRUCTURES: NEEDS NEW

DESIGN TO ADAPT TO CC

River/canal/wetland de-silting
Embankments/polders/submersible dykes/FCD/FCDI
Urban drainage/storm sewerage
Energy/power plants
Ports/airports/EPZ/EZ
Roads & Highways, Bridge/culverts
Housing/cluster village/growth centers
Cyclone shelter/flood shelter/killa

Intensity of Impacts on different sectors due to Climate

change (ref: NAPA, 2009)
Trade

Regional distribution of
global output

Food security

Agriculture

Nutrition

Trend and sudden

shocks
Poor and non poor

Health

Climate c hange
impact

Infrastructure

Livelihood impact through

employment income consumption
changes

Regional dimensions
coastal and inland

Industry

Disasters

Adjustment mechanism
such as migration crime

Gender differentiated
impacts

Economic and Social Impacts

for Major Climatic Events

TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES

Impacts
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Most of 123 polders constructed since the 1960s.

Analyses of all 19 severe cyclones during the past 50 years
indicate that they would overtop 43 of the existing polders.
Super-cyclonic storms (with winds greater than 220 km/hr)
have a return period of around 10 years; currently, a single
such storm would result in damages and losses averaging 2.4
percent of GDP.
Climate change is expected to increase the severity of cyclones
and the surges by 2050. When combined with an expected rise
in sea level, cyclone-induced storm surges are projected to
inundate an additional 15 percent of the coastal area.
The depth of inundation is also expected to increase.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND COST

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Existing investments, which have reduced the impacts of

cyclone-induced storm surges
However, these investments are not sufficient to address the
existing risks, much less the future risk from climate change.
By 2050, total investments of $5,516 million and $112 million
in annual recurrent costs will be needed to protect against
storm surge risk, including that from climate change
Of this, strengthening 43 polders against existing risks
requires investments of $2,462 million and annual recurrent
costs of $49 million.
an additional 2,930 shelters will need to be constructed by 2050
at an estimated cost of $628 million to accommodate the
expected population growth in coastal areas even under
existing risk.

FLOODING
Impacts
| Bangladesh has been incurring significant damages in
terms of crop losses, destruction of roads and other
infrastructure, disruption to industry and commerce, and
injuries and losses in human lives from severe inland
monsoon floods once every three to five years.
| The 1998 flood inundated over two-thirds of Bangladesh
and resulted in damages and losses of over $2 billion, or 4.8
percent of GDP.
| Increased monsoon precipitation, higher trans boundary
water flows, and rising sea levels resulting from climate
change are expected to increase the depth and extent of
inundation.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND COST

|

The cost of protecting against the existing risks of severe

monsoon flooding was not estimated largely because of data
limitations.
The additional cost to protect
(a) road networks and railways,
(b) river embankments to protect highly productive agricultural
lands,
(c) drainage systems, and
(d) erosion control measures for high-value assets such as towns
against the higher inundation depths due to climate change
are estimated at $2,671 million in investment costs and $54
million in annual recurrent costs

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY

Impacts
|

The combined effects of rising temperatures, higher precipitation,

severe flooding, occasional seasonal droughts, and loss of arable land
in coastal areas resulting from climate change are expected to result
in declines in rice production of 3.9 percent each year, or a
cumulative total of 80 million tons over 200550.
Overall, climate change is expected to decrease agricultural GDP by
3.1 percent each yeara cumulative $36 billion in lost valueaddedduring 200550.
The economic losses increase by threefoldto a cumulative $129
billion
And as high as $5.1 billion per year under more pessimistic climate
scenarioswith economic losses rising in later years.
The southern coastal regions and the northwestern
expected to experience the largest income declines.

regions are

Rice Variety
Salinity tolerant Aman variety:
| BRRI

dhan40
| BRRI dhan41

Salinity tolerant Boro variety:

BRRI dhan47
Eary Aman Variety for Cyclone affected areas
| BINAdhan-7 :

Other varieties
BINA variety for saline areas
| BINA China badam-1
| BINA China badam-2
Salinity Resistant Jute variety by BJRI
| HC-2, HC 95, CVL 1
Saline tolerant sugarcane variety
| ISWARDI-40 BY BSRI

| BRRI

dhan47-BRR dhan40/BRRI dhan41/BRRI dhan46/BR23

| BRRI

dhan40/BRRI dhan41/BR23-BRRI dhan47

| BRRI dhan27-BRRIdhan41-Tomato
| BRRI

dhan41-Cowpea (Felon)/Watermelon

| Bhatisak

found more tolerant (8-12 ds/m) in saline condition

compared to Radish, red amaranth which resulted higher
yield and income.

| Bottle

gourd, bean and sweet gourd are more remunerative

than other root (radish, carrot) and fruit type vegetables
(Ladys finger, bitter gourd)

| Other

salt tolerant non rice-e.g. Chili, Carrot, Sugar beet,

Barley

ADAPTATION TO LOCAL-LEVEL PERSPECTIVES

Impacts
| The risks from tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods,
and other climatic hazards are geographically
concentrated in specific regions of the country, which
also have higher concentrations of the poor.
| The poor and the socially most vulnerable are
disproportionately affected, as they have the lowest
capacity to cope with these losses.
| The most vulnerable population includes those with
few assets, subsistence farmers, the rural landless,
the urban poor, fishing communities, women,
children, and the elderly.

ADAPTATION TO LOCAL-LEVEL
PERSPECTIVES
The most common forms of private adaptation
activities among surveyed households are temporary
migration of adult men for day labor, construction of
platforms to protect livestock, and storage of food and
drinking water prior to extreme events.
| The preferred public adaptation activities from a local
perspectiveinclude
(a)
environmental
management
(mangrove
preservation, afforestation, coastal greenbelts);
(b) water resource management (drainage, rainwater
harvesting, drinking water provision, and flood
control);
(c) Infrastructure (roads, cyclone shelters);
|

ADAPTATION TO LOCAL-LEVEL
PERSPECTIVES
(d) livelihood diversification and social protection for fishers
during the cyclone season;
(e) education;
(e) agriculture, including development of salt-tolerant and
high-yield varieties and crop insurance;
(f) fisheries, including storm-resistant boats and conflict
resolution between shrimp and rice farmers;
(g) governance, especially access to social services for urban
poor;
(h) gender-responsive disaster management, including
separate rooms for women in cyclone shelters, minishelters closer to villages and
(i) mobile medical teams in Char areas.

NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL

INITIATIVES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

POLICY DOCUMENTS WHICH ADDRESSES THE

ISSUES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The following national policy documents developed by the
Government of Bangladesh (GoB) have addressed the
issues of climate change including adaptation:
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The Constitution: through its 15th amendment, considered

the issue of climate change, albeit implicitly. Constitutional
Amendment included the following article in Part II:
Fundamental Principles of State Policy and was passed
accordingly: 18A. Protection and improvement of
environment and biodiversity: The State shall endeavour to
protect and improve the environment and to safeguard the
natural resources, biodiversity, wetlands, forests and wild
life for the present and future citizens.
Vision 2021: Vision 2021 that provides political directions
to all national policy documents states, All measures will
be taken to protect Bangladesh, including planned
migration abroad, from the adverse effects of climate
change and global warming.

POLICY DOCUMENTS WHICH ADDRESSES THE

ISSUES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP): Bangladesh Sixth Five Year

Plan FY2011-FY2015 provides strategic directions and
policy framework as well as sectoral strategies,
programmes and policies taking consideration of CC
adaptation for accelerating growth and reducing poverty of
the country.
Other Policy Documents: It has been observed that other
national sectoral policy documents that are being reviewed
currently also considering the effects of climate change and
directing policy propositions to combat those.
Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan first
prepared in 2008, modified and
approved by the
Government in 2009 with wide consultation with
Government and non government sector, community based
organization, development partners, experts, academia etc.
BCCSAP 2009 is a one of the first landmark document
among the developing countries.

BCCSAP 2009
SIX THEMATIC AREAS
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Food security, social protection and health

Comprehensive disaster management

Infrastructure

Research & knowledge management

Mitigation & low carbon development

Capacity building & institutional strengthening

y
y

44 thematic programmes developed

Implementation of several projects initiated

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES

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Bangladesh is active to address climate change issues

Climate change cell (CCC) was established in the year 2004
under the Department of Environment
CCC has been working for climate change mainstreaming,
capacity building, knowledge management, modeling,
awareness building and adaptation research. So far cell
published 40 publications.
Bangladesh already submitted initial national
communication to the UNFCCC in the year 2002 and
expected to submit its second national communication in
June, 2012.
NAPA prepared in 2005 and updated in 2009

NATIONAL EFFORTS- CLIMATE CHANGE TRUST

FUND
| Enactment

of Climate Change Trust Fund Act,

2010.
| Establishment of Climate Change Trust Fund
(CCTF) and Climate Change Trust Fund Board.
y

Establishment of climate change unit under the ministry

of environment and forest and climate change focal point
in different ministries

| Budget

allocation for CCTF: US$ 100 million for

2009-2010 and US$ 100 million for 2010-2011
from Governments own resources. Government
also allocated same amount of money for the
current financial year

BANGLADESH CLIMATE CHANGE

TRUST FUND
CCTF has approved 82 government projects for
implementation. An amount of Tk. around 150 million USD has
been allocated for these projects.
| CCTF has also approved on principle around 55 projects of
NGOs (around 35 crore taka)
| Several projects of Government and NGOs are in the process of
consideration
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Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience

Fund (BCCRF)
BCCRF , signed May 2010, Managed by GoB, Trustee WB
Objective; Implementation of BCCSAP
Implementation by GO line agencies, 15-25 M USD, 3 years
Governing council: Advise, oversee, approve, advocate, 17
member
Minister MoEF is chair person and secretary MoEF is the
member secretary, 2 donor member, 2 civil society, one WB
Management committee: Budget of BCCRF, review, endorse
grant proposals, day to day management
Secretary of MoEF is the chair for management committee
and joint secretary (development) is the member secretary

BangladeshClimateChangeResilienceFund
(BCCRF)

PKSF is the lead implementation agency and to

produce separate operating procedure for grants for
the NGOs
Support the development of grassroots communities
to increase their resilience
A total of 10% of the BCCRF will be channeled for
CSO/NGO
WB will ensure the fiduciary responsibility
Board of governors of PKSF will approve the projects
Under go same review process as for government
projects

Available Fund and Allocation

A total 125 million USD is available currently

3 ministry proposals have already been selected:
o LGED cyclone shelters USD 25m
o DAE resilient crops USD 25m
o MoEF coastal and hilly afforestation
USD 25m

FUTURE PROBABLE ADAPTATION STRATEGY

Near term
| Addressing current climate-related risks
| Research and Knowledge Building
Medium to Long Term
| Sound development policies
| Adjustment
of
design
standards
for
infrastructure
| Development of climate-resilient cultivars and
cropping
| Improved
governance
and
stakeholder
participation
| Strengthened regional cooperation

CONCLUSION
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable country to Climate
change and CC impacts will be enormous in the coming near
future
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Livelihood support and employment opportunity for the poor

and ultra poor will be drastically reduced particularly for the
vulnerable areas
For making country climate resilient up to 2050 Bangladesh
needs huge investment
In BCCSAP -2009 44 programs and in NAPA 45 adaptation
options is identified. For implementation of adaptation options
the country will need to invest a lot of money.

CONCLUSION
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As Bangladesh invested over 10 billion USD for the last three

decades to make the country more climate resilient. For
implementation of BCCSAP Bangladesh will need 5 billion USD for
the first five years. So adaptation activities will create some
employment opportunities.
Bangladesh should prepare itself for the proper implementation of
BCCSAP and NAPA
Policy and planning support needed to generate sector specific and
need based human resources.
Capacity building
Institutional mechanism
Diplomatic and negotiation skill should be enhanced to get the
financial and technical support to meet the adaptation needs