Going transplanetary
Erika Ilves, co-founder, Transplanetary
Strategy summit, stavanger, Jan 29, 2015
Credit: Bryan Versteeg, [Link]
Something incredible
just happened At the edge of the Milky Way.
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt
humans.
So much potential. So little time.
"Now is the watershed of Cosmic history
Behind us yawn the chasms of the primordial past, when this
universe was a dead and silent place; before us rise the broad
sunlit uplands of a living cosmos.
In the next few galactic seconds, the fate of the universe will
be decided. Life the ultimate experiment will either
explode into space and engulf the star-clouds in a fire storm
of children, trees, and butterfly wings; or Life will fail, fizzle,
and gutter out, leaving the universe shrouded forever in
impenetrable blankness, devoid of hope."
Marshall T. Savage
The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps, 1994
We know what we must do.
2006
"In the long run, a single-planet species will not survive.
Michael Griffin, NASA administrator
1994
Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be
endangered by impacts from space, every surviving
civilization is obliged to become spacefaringnot because of
exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical
reason imaginable: staying alive... If our long-term survival is
at stake, we have a basic responsibility to our species to
venture to other worlds.
Carl Sagan
1976
The long-term survival of humanity, and of the plant and
animal life that we cherish on Earth, can best be assured by
building colonies dispersed throughout our solar system and
beyond.
Gerard oneill
1961
"Remember this: once the human race is established
on more than one planet and especially, in more than one
solar system, there is no way now imaginable to kill off the
human race.
Robert A. Heinlein
1957
This is the goal: To make available for life every place where
life is possible. To make inhabitable all worlds as yet
uninhabitable, and all life purposeful.
Hermann oberth
1929
"Man must at all costs overcome the Earth's gravity and
have, in reserve, the space at least of the Solar System. All
kinds of danger wait for him on the Earth. . . . We have said a
great deal about the advantages of migration into space, but
not all can be said or even imagined.
Konstantin tsiolkovsky
1843
"Perchance, coming generations will not abide the dissolution
of the globe, but, availing themselves of future inventions in
aerial locomotion, and the navigation of space, the entire race
may migrate from the earth, to settle some vacant and more
western planet.... It took but little art, a simple application of
natural laws, a canoe, a paddle, and a sail of matting, to
people the isles of the Pacific, and a little more will people the
shining isles of space.
Henry david thoreau
so what have we done in a hundred years?
As of Jan 23, 2015
people in space
547
123
6
man years in space
currently in space
Source: [Link]
18
12
As of Jan 23, 2015
orbited
walked
0
529
100-450 km
Source: [Link]
"The regret on our side is,
they used to say years ago,
we are reading about you in
science class. Now they say,
we are reading about you in
history class."
Neil armstrong, july 1999
Why so little progress?
Its hard.
Its expensive.
apollo
iss
SLS
$164 Billion
$150 Billion
$30 Billion
We dont care about our extinction
All That much.
Availability bias
The last time I checked,
Humans have not gone extinct
We do seem to care
about prestige & military dominance.
Image: Kerbal Space Program
We care about science
unless we need the money for something else.
We care about doing more and more
With less and less.
On Earth.
A path that pays for itself
is the path that will happen.
Enter commercial space.
Aka new space.
1,200 satellites
$200 billion market
92 launches in 2014
$6 billion market
SPACE internet
High altitude joy rides
Real time eyes on earth
Anywhere in under 4 hours
Its all wonderful.
But none of this calls for people to live in space
or go beyond the geostationary orbit.
A question of galactic significance:
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt
What creates value on earth,
requires humans in the loop and/or
Pushes us beyond the geostationary orbit?
and a handful of space-based business models.
Space tourism
Micro-g research
Re-fueling stations
Space mining
Space-based solar power
Manufacturing in space
Space & market potential maybe infinite
But investor understanding & attention is finite.
These business cases make real sense
if funded together.
Space tourism
Micro-g
research
Re-fueling stations
Space mining
Space-based
solar power
Manufacturing
in space
We need to be less like space cowboys
And more like space musketeers.
An ecosystem problem
can only be solved by going meta.
How to make an ecosystem of
These Space-based business models investible?
For starters, just bloody explain
this whole space thing better.
Meta idea #1:
Space sector visualization and analytics platform
VITALs SIBLING for Space was conceived over lunch.
We named him spock*.
*Space program on ontologically computed knowledge
It takes time to train your AI
Space jargon
2,000 space entities
900,000 people
All space related patents
Hundreds of sources
Asking the right questions
Predictive algorithms
Meta idea #1: version 2.0
Mission control for humanitys expansion off Earth,
Manned by spock
ABOUT
BLOG
Greetings, I am SPOCK.
I man this Mission Control for
human civilizations expansion
into space. What do you want to do?
Check out
space
companies
Explore past,
present & future
space
missions
Invest in
space
Explore
space
industry
Volunteer,
crowdfund
or work in
space
July 2015
Ecosystem-level solutionS
3 meta ideas
Visualize space markets
MISSION CONTROL
Web intelligence platform for
space investors, analysts and
enthusiasts giving a real-time
overview of the global space
ecosystem, incl. predictions of
future space milestones,
visualization of future markets and
investment recommendations.
Drive out costs
Create new funding mechanisms
MARKETPLACE
SPACE DEVELOPMENT
BANK
3rd party B2B global marketplace
for space systems, sub-systems
and components (Amazon 3rd
party marketplace for space).
Could evolve into a platform for
sharing and manufacturing highvolume aerospace components
and sub-systems (Amazon 3D
printing shop for space)
A global facility designed to fund
the currently unfundable space
infrastructure projects. Modelled
on the concept of development
banking but applied to the sector,
not developing world nations.
(EBRD for space)
We will pivot
but will not let go of the bone.
Space settlement
Find a WAY to go transplanetary
That pays for itself.
Sweet dreams are made of these:
Credit: NASA
Credit: Bryan Versteeg, [Link]
Credit: ESA
So that one day
"When you look at the stars
and the galaxy, you feel you
are not just from any
particular piece of land,
but from the solar system."
Laurel clark
Because of us, landscapes of radiation blasted waste, will be
miraculously transmuted: Slag will become soil, grass will
sprout, flowers will bloom, and forests will spring up in once
sterile places. Ice, hard as iron, will melt and trickle into pools
where starfish, anemones, and seashells dwella whole
frozen universe will thaw and transmogrify, from howling
desolation to blossoming paradise.
Marshall T. Savage
The Millennial Project: Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps, 1994
Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt
[Link]
@transplanetary