WeeklyAgReport

BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE

WEEK ENDED ON Jan. 08, 2015

CROP REPORT - HIGHLIGHTS
Estimations and Agricultural Projections Department
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange

Referencias:
NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero.
NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa.
Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba.
Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros.
S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires.
Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante.
Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires.
SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa.
SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis.
Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.

WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE

January 8, 2015

AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: JANUARY 8 TO 14, 2015: HEAT AND STORMS FOLLOWED
BY A MODERATE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

OUTLOOK SUMMARY
At the beginning of the perspective, the presence of northerly winds will bring warm and humid air and a new
heat wave to most part of the agricultural area. The heat and humidity brought by the tropical winds will produce
precipitations of warm front that will affect most part of the Ag. region for several days. Their uneven distribution will
produce heavy storms in some areas, while others will report scarce activity. Towards the end of the perspective, the
passage of a Pampero front will clear the atmosphere and bring a cold air mass that will moderately drop
temperatures in the south of the agricultural area while the Center and North will remain under the influence of
northerly winds.

SOYBEAN
Nationwide planting has covered 93.5 % of an area projected at 20,600,000 hectares, posting progress
for 2.9 percentage points up from last publication, and keeping a YOY advance of 2.6 points. Toward the
north of the country, the NE and NW Areas are still within the optimal window to incorporate plots. However,
some seed quality problems make it difficult to project final area in both regions.
On the opposite tip of the ag region, SE and SW of Buenos Aires and south of La Pampa, the window
for incorporation is closing while many plots are still pending to plant on account of the lack of surface
moisture. Consequently, in spite of a good planting progress nationwide, further adjustments toward the
next report are not ruled out.

SOYBEAN PLANTING
2014/15 Season
Zone
I
NOA
II
NEA
III
Ctro N Cba
IV
S Cba
V
Ctro N SFe
VI
Ncleo Norte
VII
Ncleo Sur
VIII
Ctro E ER
IX
N LP-OBA
X
Ctro BA
XI
SO BA-S LP
XII
SE BA
XIII
SL
XIV
Cuenca Sal
XV
Otras
TOTAL

Hectareage (Ha)
2013/14
2014/15
1.103.000
900.000
1.654.000
1.500.000
2.265.000
2.300.000
1.490.000
1.700.000
1.160.000
1.300.000
3.560.000
3.500.000
2.800.000
2.800.000
1.230.000
1.250.000
1.660.000
1.850.000
570.000
650.000
500.000
600.000
1.590.000
1.800.000
165.000
180.000
203.000
220.000
50.000
50.000
20.000.000
20.600.000

As of: Jan. 08, 2015

Porcentage
Hectares
planted (%)
planted
67,3
605.250
71,5
1.072.840
100,0
2.300.000
99,3
1.688.710
93,0
1.209.013
100,0
3.500.000
99,8
2.793.736
99,0
1.237.260
99,6
1.841.810
98,3
638.975
67,7
406.000
84,9
1.528.800
100,0
180.000
96,1
211.400
98,2
49.100
93,5 19.262.894

CORN
Nationwide planting has covered 80.9 % of an area estimated at 3,000,000 hectares this season,
accounting for 7.9 percentage points of progress since our last publication, posting planting delay for -1.9
points down from the same date last season. More than 2.4M Ha of commercial corn were planted
nationwide, and more than 70 % of pending area corresponds to plots to be incorporated in the next few
weeks in the NE and NW Areas. At the same time, planting has finished in the last nine days in La Pampa,
west, center and SW of Buenos Aires, as well as in the Salado basin.
Toward the north and south belt regions, the most advanced early planted plots are passing through
grain filling phases in good moisture conditions, which anticipates a high yield potential. Similar
development was observed in the mid-east of Entre Ros, on plots with adequate-to-optimal water supplies,
thus fostering high yield potentials upon harvest. In the mid-north of Cordoba, early plots are mostly at
flowering phases (R1) or setting (R2), in adequate moisture conditions after the rains of previous days.
Toward the south of the province there were plots severely affected by water deficit during most of the
vegetative phases. Nevertheless, a good number of plots still maintain good-to-very good conditions from
flowering (R1) to early grain filling (R3).

CORN PLANTING
2014/15 Season
Zonas
I
NOA
II
NEA
III
Ctro N Cba
IV
S Cba
V
Ctro N SFe
VI
Ncleo Norte
VII
Ncleo Sur
VIII
Ctro E ER
IX
N LP-OBA
X
Ctro BA
XI
SO BA-S LP
XII
SE BA
XIII
SL
XIV
Cuenca Sal
XV
Otras
TOTAL

Hectareage (Ha)
2013/14
2014/15
282.000
220.000
412.000
307.000
620.000
480.000
430.000
320.000
136.000
110.000
400.000
300.000
340.000
265.000
151.000
132.000
424.000
340.000
218.000
174.000
100.000
92.000
90.000
81.000
130.000
118.000
48.000
42.000
19.000
19.000
3.800.000
3.000.000

As of: Jan. 08, 2015

Porcentage
Hectares
planted (%)
planted
19,0
41.800
20,0
61.400
91,0
436.800
94,0
300.800
54,9
60.390
97,5
292.500
98,8
261.688
90,1
118.932
100,0
340.000
100,0
174.000
100,0
92.000
99,6
80.636
90,3
106.495
100,0
42.000
88,0
16.720
80,9 2.426.160

SUNFLOWER
Despite delays from rainfalls, harvest moved on in parts of the NE Area and the mid-north of Santa Fe.
So far, nationwide harvest has covered 5.9 % of the area, with an average yield of 1.82 tons/Ha, a week-onweek advance of 3.7 percentage points, and a slight YOY decrease of -4.6 percentage points. Current yields
observed in the sunflower growing area of the NE are above initial expectations, which in combination with

good yields on plots in the opposite end of the region, anticipate a final production of 2,400,000 tons this
season.
In spite of rainfalls of low-to-moderate intensity since the last publication, harvest in the NE Area has
made good progress, raising average yield to 1.84 tons/Ha, with individual yields ranging from 1.0 to 3.2
tons/Ha throughout the region.
Toward the south of Buenos Aires, plots are passing through reproductive phases from flower bud to
flowering, in good-to-very good conditions, despite lacking rainfalls in the last few weeks.

SUNFLOWER HARVEST
2014/15 Season
Hectareage (Ha)
Porcentage
Hectares
Zone
Sown
Lost
Harvestable Harvested (%) Harvested
I
NOA
II
NEA
135.000
2.000
133.000
50,0
66.500
III
Ctro N Cba
2.000
100
1.900
IV
S Cba
15.000
500
14.500
V
Ctro N SFe
90.000
400
89.600
10,0
200.000
VI
Ncleo Norte
4.000
100
3.900
VII Ncleo Sur
5.000
50
4.950
VIII Ctro E ER
3.000
150
2.850
IX
N LP-OBA
90.000
2.500
87.500
X
Ctro BA
50.000
500
49.500
XI
SO BA-S LP
420.000
4.000
416.000
XII SE BA
390.000
2.000
388.000
XIII SL
20.000
600
19.400
XIV Cuenca Sal
72.000
800
71.200
XV Otras
4.000
100
3.900
TOTAL
1.300.000
13.800
1.286.200
5,9
75.460

As of: Jan. 08, 2015

Yield
Production
(qq/Ha)
(Tn)
18,4
122.360
21,7
434.000
18,2
137.144

WHEAT
Dry weather in the last nine days over Buenos Aires has fostered good harvest progress on plots. So
far, nationwide harvest has covered 95.9 % of the area, yielding an average of 2.82 tons/Ha, with a partial
accrued volume of 10.6M Tn. At the same time, a downward trend on yields was emphasized in the wheat
growing areas of SE and SW of Buenos Aires and south of La Pampa, which contribute more than 33 % of the
wheat area nationwide. Consequently, national production is adjusted to 11,200,000 tons this season, falling
by 2.6 % from the first projection (11.5 M Tn until 30/12/14), though still remaining some 10.9 % above
production last season (13/14: 10.1 M Tn).
Toward the SE of Buenos Aires, after a significant harvest progress, average yield posted 3.81 tons/Ha.
This yield reports a fall by -0.4 tons/Ha from initial expectations, mainly due to high temperatures in winter,
and continuous rainfalls during most of the year.
In the SW of Buenos Aires and south of La Pampa, the situation is similar, except for a wider gap
between current yield (2.71 tons/Ha) and initial harvest expectation (2.9 tons/Ha).
WHEAT HARVEST
2014/15 Season
Hectareage (Ha)
Porcentage
Zone
Sown
Lost
Harvestable Harvested (%)
I
NOA
175.000
25.000
150.000
100,0
II
NEA
250.000
20.000
230.000
100,0
III Ctro N Cba
440.000
22.000
418.000
100,0
IV S Cba
247.000
10.000
237.000
100,0
V
Ctro N SFe
215.000
15.000
200.000
100,0
VI Ncleo Norte
371.000
15.000
356.000
100,0
VII Ncleo Sur
294.000
17.000
277.000
100,0
VIII Ctro E ER
200.000
9.000
191.000
100,0
IX N LP-OBA
380.000
6.000
374.000
100,0
X
Ctro BA
140.000
5.000
135.000
99,0
XI SO BA-S LP
814.000
30.000
784.000
95,0
XII SE BA
610.000
70.000
540.000
78,0
XIII SL
5.000
700
4.300
100,0
XIV Cuenca Sal
50.000
15.000
35.000
95,0
XV Otras
9.000
300
8.700
100,0
TOTAL
4.200.000
260.000
3.940.000
95,9

Hectares
Harvested
150.000
230.000
418.000
237.000
200.000
356.000
277.000
191.000
374.000
133.650
744.800
421.200
4.300
33.250
8.700
3.778.900

As of: Jan. 08, 2015

Yield
Production
(qq/Ha)
(Tn)
10,7
160.548
11,7
268.343
26,3
1.098.099
24,9
590.841
21,7
434.000
29,6
1.055.473
35,8
990.829
22,6
431.717
38,1
1.425.697
33,3
445.433
27,1
2.020.760
38,1
1.605.420
11,8
5.053
30,1
100.050
27,4
23.795
28,2 10.655.860

BARLEY
Barley harvest is finished nationwide. Good weather has fostered harvest fieldwork in the south of the
ag region.
Overall, 790M Ha were harvested nationwide, yielding an average of 3.61 tons/Ha. Consequently, total
production amounts to 2,850,000 tons. Such production accounts for a drop of 950M Tn from year 2013-14.
The main reasons for this are a decrease by 28% of planting area, surface losses which were three-fold from
last season, and an average yield of 8.4 % below last season.
BARLEY HARVEST
2014/15 Season
Zone
I
NOA
II
NEA
III
Ctro N Cba
IV
S Cba
V
Ctro N SFe
VI
Ncleo Norte
VII
Ncleo Sur
VIII Ctro E ER
IX
N LP-OBA
X
Ctro BA
XI
SO BA-S LP
XII
SE BA
XIII SL
XIV Cuenca Sal
XV
Otras
TOTAL

Sown

Hectareage (Ha)
Porcentage
Lost
Harvestable Harvested (%)

Hectares
Harvested

As of: Jan 08, 2015

Yield
Production
(qq/Ha)
(Tn)

600
3.500
900
16.000
54.000
2.000
75.000
35.000
195.000
530.000

250
700
200
2.400
7.500
240
5.000
5.000
12.000
94.310

350
2.800
700
13.600
46.500
1.760
70.000
30.000
183.000
435.690

100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0

350
2.800
700
13.600
46.500
1.760
70.000
30.000
183.000
435.690

8.000

2.400

5.600

100,0

5.600

35,0

19.600

920.000

130.000

790.000

100,0

790.000

36,1

2.850.000

Buenos Aires, January 09, 2015

16,0
560
25,0
7.000
24,2
1.694
34,0
46.240
33,0
153.450
25,0
4.400
32,1
224.700
34,4
103.200
30,6
559.431
39,7 1.729.725

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange