H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Structural Reliability
Based on EN 1990
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Design Working Life (T
d
)
Design working life T
d
is an assumed period of
time for which a structure or part of it is to be
used for its intended purpose with anticipated
maintenance but without major repair being
necessary.
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 2
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Reliability
Ability of a structure or a structural member
to fulfil the specified requirements including
design working life.
[EN 1990, [Link]]
Usually expressed in probabilistic terms
Covers: - Safety, serviceability and durability
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 3
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
FUNDAMENTAL CASES OF STRUCTURAL
RELIABILITY
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 4
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Example 1
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 5
Steel Rod
Suspended weight
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Example 1
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 6
( ) R E P P
f
> =
Steel Rod
Suspended weight
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 7
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Deterministic Load effect, E and Random Resistance R
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 8
( ) ( ) ( )
0 0 0
u e e R P P
U R f
u = u = < =
u
0
is the distance of E
0
from
mean
R
expressed in the units
of
R
.
If R has normal distribution:
u
0
is called (reliability Index)
( )
R
R
e
o
|
0
=
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Both E and R as random variables
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 9
E R z = margin, Safety
2 2 2 2 2
2
E R RE E R z
E R z
o o o o o
+ + =
=
Coeff. of correlation of R &E
0
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
0
0
0
u
Z P R E P P
U Z
f
u = u =
< = > =
( )
Z
z
Z
z
u
o
o
=
=
0
0
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Failure Probability (P
f
)
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 10
) ( | u =
f
P
Cumulative distribution function of
the standard normal distribution
Reliability Index
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 11
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Failure Probability (P
f
)
Performance function g
Survive if g > 0
Fail if g 0
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 12
E R g
g P
f
=
s = ) 0 Prob(
Resistance
Effect of actions
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
RELIABILITY METHODS
Annex C EN 1990
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 13
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Overview of reliability methods
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 14
FORM = First Order
Reliability Methods
Eurocodes use
Method a mainly
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Survival Probability (P
s
)
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 15
( )
f s
P P = 1
Failure Probability for the
considered failure mode
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Acceptable Failure Probability
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 16
Acceptable Failure Probability (P
f
)
Target Reliability Index ()
Reference Period
Importance /
Consequence of Failure
What is the target value of Reliability Index - ???
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
If g is Normally distributed
Target values of reliability index ()
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 17
g
g
o
| =
When the main uncertainty comes from action that have statistically independent
maxima in each year, the values of for a different reference period (n) can be found by:
( ) ( ) | |
n
n 1
| | u = u
50
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Target values of reliability index ()
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 18
50
Example:
( ) ( ) | |
50
1 50
| | u ~ u
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
8 . 3 826314 . 3 ) 2 0.99993496 (
2 0.99993496 9 0.99999869
9 0.99999869 ) 7 . 4 ( 7 . 4
50
50 50
1 50
~ = =
= = u = u
= = u
NORMSINV
NORMSDIST
|
| |
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Target values of reliability index ()
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 19
50
For 100 years:
( ) ( ) | |
100
1 100
| | u ~ u
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
65 . 3 3.65206
8 0.99986992 9 0.99999869
9 0.99999869 7 . 4
100
50 100
1 100
~ =
= = u = u
= u
|
| |
MS Excel:
NORMSDIST(z)
NORMSINV(PROB)
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
APPLICATION
More like examples
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 20
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Partial Factor for Material Property
Characteristic value, R
k
= 5% fractile
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 21
( )
( )
=
=
=
d
k
R
V
R d
V
R k
R
R
e R
e R
R a R
R
| o
645 . 1
( )
( )
R a R
R
V
V
R
e
e
=
| o
645 . 1
For steel, V
R
0.08
50
= 3.8
R
= 0.8
R
= 1.12
1.15
Example:
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Partial Factor for Material Property
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 22
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 1 2 3 4 5
a
Partial factor for material property
VR = 0.05 VR = 0.10 VR = 0.15 VR = 0.20
( )
( )
R a R
R
V
V
R
e
e
=
| o
645 . 1
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Partial Factors of Self-weight
Self-weight G : Normal distribution (assume)
Characteristic value G
k
=
G
Design value:
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 23
( )
G a G
G a G
G a G G d
V
G
+ =
+ =
=
|
o |
o | o
7 . 0 1
7 . 0
G
= -0.7, the sensitivity
factor of G
Reliability index
corresponding to
alternative
reference period T
a
When an alternative reference period T
a
is used for verification instead of T
d
For T
a
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Partial Factors of Self-weight
Partial factor of G:
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 24
( )
G
G a G
k
d
G
V
G
G
7 . 0 1+
=
=
( )
G a G d
V G + = | 7 . 0 1
( )
G a G
V | 7 . 0 1+ =
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 25
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
0 1 2 3 4 5
a
Varaiation of
G
with
a
VG = 0.05 VG = 0.1 VG = 0.15 VG = 0.2 a = 3.8
a
=3.8
G
=1.266
V
G
= 0.1
1.266 1.05 = 1.33
1.35
Note:
As T
a
increases,
a
decreases and
G
decreases
5% Extra for
model
imperfection
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
ELEMENTARY METHODS OF
STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 26
H
a
r
i
k
r
i
s
h
n
a
n
P
a
n
i
k
k
a
v
e
e
t
t
i
l
Design Point
8 August 2014 Structural Reliability 27
E E E d
R R R d
E
R
|o o
|o o
=
=
8 . 0
7 . 0
2 2
2 2
~
+
=
~
+
=
R E
R
R
R E
E
E
o o
o
o
o o
o
o