Chapter11-UnderstandingRandomness
Name___________________________________
[Link].
Provideanappropriateresponse.
1) [Link]?
Whyorwhynot?
A) [Link].
B) Yes,solongastheprogramthatgeneratesthemdoesnotallowtherepetitionofnumbersin
back-to-backsequence.
C) Yes,solongastheprogramthatgeneratesthemensuresthatalloftheprospectivenumbers
areeventuallyused.
D) No,becausetheyaregeneratedinafixedsequence.
E) [Link].
1)
2) Whatistheminimumnumberoftimesthatanordinarydeckofplayingcardsmustbeshuffledto
makethedeckrandom?
A) 2
B) 8
C) 1
D) 7
E) Itcannotbemaderandom.
2)
3) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentusesarandomnumberfrom5to13tosimulatethe
shoesizesofapopulationoffemales.
A) [Link]
[Link].
B) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
C) [Link]
outsideoftherange.
D) [Link],the
simulationshouldalsoaccountforthefootwidth.
E) [Link]
unpredictableandcannotbemodeled.
3)
4) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentusesarandomnumberfrom1to13tosimulatethe
valueofacarddrawnatrandomfromastandarddeckofplayingcards.
A) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
B) [Link],inwhich
casetherealsituationmaynotberandom.
C) [Link]
cardssuit.
D) [Link],therearelessfacecardsthan
cardswithnumbers.
E) [Link]
from1to12.
4)
1
5) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentsimulatestheoutcomeofabasketballplayers
3-pointshotbyletting0=missedshotand1=madeshot.
A) [Link]
daymightbeaffectedbyaninjuryorillness.
B) [Link],so
therealsituationisinherentlyunpredictable.
C) [Link]
playermakes50%ofhis3-pointshots,whichisprobablyunrealistic.
D) [Link]
ofdefenseemployedbytheopposingteam.
E) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
5)
6) Criticizethefollowingsimulation:Astudentsimulatesmathtestscoresbychoosingarandom
numberbetween0and100.
A) [Link]
studentisinherentlyunpredictable.
B) Thesimulationshouldmodeltherealsituation.
C) [Link],thesimulationwill
[Link],the
distributionofgradeswillnotbesouniform.
D) [Link]
eachstudentspentstudyingfortheexam.
E) [Link].
6)
7) Astatisticsstudentproperlysimulatedthenumberofstudentsatherhighschoolwhohavetheflu.
Shethenreported,Thenumberofstudentsatthisschoolwiththefluis [Link]
thisconclusion?
A) Theconclusionshouldindicatethatthesimulationsuggeststhatthereare40studentsatthe
[Link].
B) Theconclusionisnotvalidbecausetheoutcomesinthesimulationarenotequallylikely.
C) Theconclusionshouldindicatethenumberoftrialsusedinthesimulation.
D) Theconclusionisnotvalidbecauserandomnumberscannotbeusedtoaccuratelymodelthe
outcomechances.
E) Nothingiswrongwiththisconclusion.
7)
8) Ataxreferendumforpropertytaxfundingforabondissuetobuildanewschoolisontheballotin
[Link]
about52%[Link],youreworriedthatonly1,000voterswill
[Link]
lose?Tofindout,[Link]
outcomes.
A) [Link]
threerandomdigits,giving000-520ayesvoteand521-999anovote.
B) [Link]
randomdigits,giving000-599ayesvoteand600-999anovote.
C) [Link]
[Link],giving0-5ayesvoteand6-9anovote.
D) [Link]
randomdigits,giving000-520ayesvoteand521-999anovote.
E) [Link]
tworandomdigits,giving00-52ayesvoteand53-99anovote.
8)
2
9) Ataxreferendumforpropertytaxfundingforabondissuetobuildanewschoolisontheballotin
[Link]
about52%[Link],youreworriedthatonly1,000voterswill
[Link]
lose?Tofindout,[Link].
A) Atrialis10votes.Examine101-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeoplevoted
[Link]
thattrial.
B) Atrialis1,000votes.Examine1,0003-digitrandomnumbersandonlycounthowmany
[Link].
C) Atrialis100votes.Examine1,0002-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeople
[Link].
D) Atrialis100votes.Examine1002-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeoplevoted
[Link]
thattrial.
E) Atrialis1,000votes.Examine1,0003-digitrandomnumbersandcounthowmanypeople
[Link]
winsthattrial.
9)
10) Ataxreferendumforpropertytaxfundingforabondissuetobuildanewschoolisontheballotin
[Link]
about52%[Link],youreworriedthatonly1,000voterswill
[Link]
lose?Tofindout,[Link].
A) Theresponsevariableisthenumberofvotesforreferendumthatareno.
B) Theresponsevariableisthenumberofvotesforreferendumthatareyes.
C) Theresponsevariableistheyesornovoteofonerandomvoter.
D) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthereferendumlosesornot.
E) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthereferendumwinsornot.
10)
3
11) Whendrawingfivecardsrandomlyfromadeck,whichismorelikely,aroyalflushorafull
house?[Link]
denominationandtwoofanother.Howcouldyousimulate5-cardhands?Onceyouhavepicked
onecard,[Link]
itsoutcomes.
A) [Link]
couldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucoulduse
asingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,5-9for
suits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
B) [Link].
Youcouldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucould
useasingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,
5-9forsuits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
C) [Link].
Youcouldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucould
useasingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,
5-9forsuits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
D) [Link]
couldusethedigits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucoulduse
asingledigit1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,5-9for
suits,and00,14-99fordenominations).
E) [Link]
digits01-52forthe52differentcards,ignoring00and53-99,oryoucoulduseasingledigit
1,2,3,or4forthesuitandthen01-13forthedenomination(ignoring1,5-9forsuits,and00,
14-99fordenominations).
11)
12) Whendrawingfivecardsrandomlyfromadeck,whichismorelikely,aroyalflushorafull
house?[Link]
denominationandtwoofanother.Howcouldyousimulate5-cardhands?Onceyouhavepicked
onecard,[Link].
A) [Link],ignoringrepeatedcards.
B) [Link].
C) [Link],ignoringrepeatedcards.
D) Atrialisfive-cardhands,[Link]
numbers,ignoringrepeatedcards.
E) [Link],ignoringrepeatedcards.
12)
13) Whendrawingfivecardsrandomlyfromadeck,whichismorelikely,aroyalflushorafull
house?[Link]
denominationandtwoofanother.Howcouldyousimulate5-cardhands?Onceyouhavepicked
onecard,[Link].
A) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaroyalflush.
B) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadafullhouse.
C) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaroyalflush,afullhouse,orneither.
D) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaneitheraroyalflushnorafullhouse.
E) Theresponsevariableiswhetherthehandhadaroyalflushorafullhouse.
13)
4
Solvetheproblem.
14) Foreachtimeupatbat,abaseballplayerhasa70%chanceofmakinganout,a10%chanceof
gettingwalked,anda20%[Link],outof5at -bats,
theplayergetsatleastonehit.Use30simulationruns.
A) About20%
B) About70%
C) About30%
D) 100%
E) About90%
14)
15) Foraparticularminiaturegolfhole,thechanceofgettingahole-in-oneisonly18%.Thechanceof
sinkinganysubsequentputtis50%.Estimatetheaveragenumberofputtsforthishole.Use30
runsinyoursimulation.
A) About4.5putts
B) About4.0putts
C) About1.5putts
D) About3.5putts
E) About2.5putts
15)
16) Inordertoillustratethebasiceconomicandpsychologicaldynamicsinvolvedinpurchasinglife
insurance,onecancreateaverysimplegamewithasack,oneblackmarble,andthreewhite
[Link],thefourmarblesareplacedinthesack,andtheplayermustpaya
premiumof$[Link]-drawnmarblesarenot
[Link],ifhekeepsplaying,theplayerisguaranteedtowinthe$12award
eventually(butatwhatcost?!).Useasimulationtopredicttheaveragecosttowinthe$12
assumingtheplayercontinuesplayinguntilhegetstheblackmarble.Use30simulationruns,
lettingarandomnumbergivethenumberofdrawstoobtaintheblackmarbleonaparticularrun.
A) About$17.00
B) About$12.50
C) About$15.50
D) About$20.50
E) About$5.00
16)
Provideanappropriateresponse.
17) Youtakeasurprisequizinyourastronomyclasswith12 [Link]
thatyouwouldhaveabouta30%[Link]
chancesofgettingthemallright?Yoursimulationshoulduseatleast20runs.
A) 2.1074359
B) 1728
C) 0.00000053
D) 3.6
E) 36
17)
18) [Link]
only30%[Link] 44%on
[Link]
attempts.Yoursimulationshoulduseatleast20runs.
A) 5.8% B) 0.74% C) 70% D) 13% E) 74%
18)
5
19) ApersonwithtypeO-negativebloodcandonatebloodtoanyonewhoneedsit,regardlessof
bloodtype.About6%[Link]
[Link]
examineinordertoget3unitsoftypeO-negativeblood?
A) 0.18people
B) 50people
C) 18people
D) 729people
E) 216people
19)
20) Asurprisequizwasgivenyesterdayinyourbiologyclasswith9 multiplechoicequestions.A
classmatewhotookitclaimedtohaveguessedoneveryquestion,[Link]
[Link]?Explain,basingyourargumentona
simulationinvolvingatleast10runs.
A) No,thepossibilityofthathappeningisverysmall,about 1.55184557.
B) No,thepossibilityofthathappeningisverysmall,about 0.00000051.
C) Yes,itispossible.
D) Yes,itislikely.
E) Itishardtotell.Thesimulationwouldneedtohavemorethan10runs.
20)
21) [Link]
randomorder,[Link]
shoulduseatleast10runs.
A)
3
56
B)
1
60
C)
6
56
D)
1
56
E)
9
20
21)
22) [Link]
randomorder,[Link]
simulationshoulduseatleast10runs.
A)
1
8
B) 0 C) 1 D)
3
8
E)
5
8
22)
23) [Link]
order,[Link]
useatleast10runs.
A)
1
3
B)
1
9
C) 0 D)
5
9
E) 1
23)
24) WhatistheprobabilitythatJenniferwillhavetwosonsoutofherthreechildren?Assumethatboy
[Link]
thereisahigherinfantmortalityrateforboys.Yoursimulationshoulduseatleast10runs.
A)
5
8
B)
1
8
C)
1
2
D)
3
8
E)
1
4
24)
6
25) AuniversityinyourregionestimatesthatverbalGREscoresofstudentswhoapplyforadmission
tograduateschoolcanbedescribedbyaNormalmodelwithameanof550andastandard
deviationof80.Thestaffinadmissionsopentheapplicationenvelopesatrandomlookingfor10
[Link]
open?
A) About20envelopes
B) About38envelopes
C) About30envelopes
D) About14envelopes
E) About10envelopes
25)
26) ThelengthsoflongdistancephonecallsplacedonacellphonecanbedescribedbyaNormal
[Link]
selectedfromwirelessphonecompanyrecords,whatistheprobabilitythatitwillhavelasted
morethan11minutes?
A) 0.977 B) 0.23 C) 0.023 D) 0.0977 E) 0.98
26)
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AnswerKey
Testname:CHAPTER11UNDERSTANDINGRANDOMNESS
1) E
2) D
3) A
4) A
5) C
6) C
7) A
8) A
9) E
10) D
11) C
12) A
13) C
14) B
15) E
16) B
17) C
18) A
19) B
20) B
21) D
22) D
23) D
24) D
25) B
26) C
8