Referencias:
NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero.
NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa.
Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba.
Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros.
S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires.
Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante.
Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires.
SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa.
SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis.
Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.
W WW WeeklyAgReport eeklyAgReport eeklyAgReport eeklyAgReport
B U E N O S A I R E S G R A I N E X C H A N G E
WEEK ENDED ON Jun 05, 2014
CROP REPORT - HIGHLIGHTS
Estimations and Agricultural Projections Department
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE
June 5, 2014
AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: JUNE 5 TO 11, 2014: PRECIPITATIONS OVER THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL AREA AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP.
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Early in the perspective, the storm front which entered last Wednesday will complete its passage
bringing abundant rainfalls to the north of the agricultural area. The rest of the region, however, will
report scarce precipitations. At the same time, the south of the agricultural area will report the entrance
of cold winds that will lead to a sharp temperature drop with likelihood of frosts in the west and south of
the area. Later, northerly winds will return, raising temperatures above normal in the north of the
agricultural area, while the Center and South will report values ranging from low to normal.
WHEAT
After a week of scarce rains over the Mid-North of the Ag region, there was some sowing progress,
although the area is still significantly delayed as compared to last season. Maximum progress was
observed in the Mid-North of Cordoba within the last few days, aided by good moisture.
So far, sowing has progressed by 11.9 % out of 4,300,000 hectares estimated this year. If this area is
covered as forecast, it will be up 18.8 % from last season (2013/14: 3.62M Ha). Overall, a little more than
500 thousand hectares were sown, way under 750 thousand Hectares sown last season. Week-on-week
progress posted 5.5 percentage points, and YOY delay was -7.5 points.
In the NW Area sowing progress was fluent, with good moisture supplies. The Mid-North of Cordoba
reported the fastest progress in the last few days, also with good moisture on the fields. Conversely,
although sowing is in progress in the NE Area, there are plots with moisture excess. The Mid-North of
Santa Fe is undergoing a similar situation, whereby sowing schemes are being delayed.
In the wheat Belt of the SE of Buenos Aires, sowing started in isolated areas, without significant
progress. Fallow farmlands could not be prepared in time, which would delay sowing in the next few
weeks. This is due to abundant moisture supplies in the region.
Finally, in the SW of Buenos Aires, plots sown a month ago in Carmen de Patagones and Villarino are
in full emergence or unfolding the first leaves, in good health conditions.
SOYBEAN
After two weeks of good weather, harvest was resumed in several regions, posting weekly progress
by 6.8 %. Countrywide, harvest has covered so far an estimated 80.6 % of the area, reporting a YOY delay
of -17.4 %. Total area harvested was 15.7M Ha, accounting for a partial volume accrued of over 47.1M Tn,
average yield dropped 0.04 tons/Ha from the last publication. This average is expected to continue falling
as harvest moves on, down to less than 2.9 tons/Ha at the end of the season.
So far, important areas such as the Mid-North and South of Cordoba, North and South Belts, Mid-East
of Entre Ros and San Luis are posting harvest progress rates above 90 % of their areas. All these
regions combined comprise a little less than 60 % of the national sown area. Since yields at the end of
harvest remained steady, the forecast production will stay the same, at 55,500,000 tons. Two other
important regions such as the Mid-North of Santa Fe and North of La Pampa and West of Buenos Aires
harvested more than 85 % of their areas. Both regions combined contribute 13 % of the area
countrywide, with stable yields that support current projections.
SOYBEAN HARVEST As of: Jun. 05, 2014
Sown Lost Harvestable
I NOA 1.130.000 90.000 1.040.000 45,2 470.301 22,3 1.049.144
II NEA 1.860.000 60.000 1.800.000 41,6 749.516 28,1 2.106.233
III Ctro N Cba 2.480.000 45.000 2.435.000 95,9 2.334.767 32,3 7.544.717
IV S Cba 1.481.000 85.000 1.396.000 97,4 1.359.485 30,5 4.144.498
V Ctro N SFe 1.155.000 60.000 1.095.000 85,5 936.435 30,7 2.872.673
VI Ncleo Norte 3.635.000 105.000 3.530.000 99,8 3.524.008 33,2 11.684.197
VII Ncleo Sur 2.820.000 90.000 2.730.000 95,0 2.594.860 32,4 8.413.161
VIII Ctro E ER 1.231.000 50.000 1.181.000 97,4 1.150.827 25,4 2.928.060
IX N LP-OBA 1.590.000 60.000 1.530.000 85,8 1.313.086 26,9 3.535.597
X Ctro BA 570.000 50.000 520.000 54,1 281.119 26,6 747.589
XI SO BA-S LP 410.000 40.000 370.000 55,3 204.493 15,9 325.844
XII SE BA 1.581.000 70.000 1.511.000 35,6 537.916 19,2 1.137.736
XIII SL 160.000 20.000 140.000 91,5 128.153 20,3 261.832
XIV Cuenca Sal 200.000 10.000 190.000 56,0 106.443 28,9 333.552
XV Otras 47.000 5.000 42.000 72,6 30.488 17,7 53.834
20.350.000 840.000 19.510.000 80,6 15.721.899 30,0 47.138.667 TOTAL
2013/14 Season Hectareage (Ha) Porcentage
Harvested (%)
Hectares
Harvested
Yield
(qq/Ha)
Production (Tn)
Zone
CORN
Corn harvest posted slight week-on-week progress by 2.7 percentage points, raising nationwide
progress to 38.5 % of the commercial corn area; YOY delay was reported as -22.6 points. This gap is due
to an increase of late sowings this season, which delayed harvest. Up to date, farm volume accrued is 9.5
million tons, with an average yield of 7.32 tons/Ha nationwide.
Harvest progressed in the West of Buenos Aires-North of La Pampa, NE Area, Cordoba and San Luis,
due to a rainless period which helped dry the grain.
There were cases of Fusarium on late corn ears in the Mid-North of Cordoba. Weather conditions
favor the spread of fungal diseases at this time of the year.
Finally, good yield expectations on late and second corn support volume projections of 24,000,000
tons. This result may be adjusted as the bulk of the area is harvested.
CORN HARVEST As of: Jun. 06,2014
Sown Lost Harvestable
I NOA 282.000 17.000 265.000 9,4 24.950 70 174.650
II NEA 302.000 13.000 289.000 15,4 44.520 47 207.018
III Ctro N Cba 580.000 14.000 566.000 16,3 92.200 82 753.300
IV S Cba 410.000 25.000 385.000 19,5 74.950 66 495.325
V Ctro N SFe 136.000 30.000 106.000 47,4 50.200 59 296.560
VI Ncleo Norte 360.000 7.000 353.000 76,3 269.370 87 2.348.019
VII Ncleo Sur 320.000 11.000 309.000 77,2 238.470 90 2.146.230
VIII Ctro E ER 151.000 12.000 139.000 64,8 90.127 52 472.376
IX N LP-OBA 424.000 30.000 394.000 47,0 185.140 71 1.314.560
X Ctro BA 218.000 11.000 207.000 42,7 88.450 58 513.010
XI SO BA-S LP 100.000 11.000 89.000 59,8 53.200 42 225.000
XII SE BA 90.000 5.000 85.000 25,2 21.450 75 160.875
XIII SL 130.000 4.000 126.000 28,1 35.350 57 200.763
XIV Cuenca Sal 48.000 4.000 44.000 60,1 26.445 68 180.061
XV Otras 19.000 3.000 16.000 28,8 4.600 45 20.700
3.570.000 197.000 3.373.000 38,5 1.299.422 73,2 9.508.446
Porcentage
Harvested (%)
Hectares
Harvested
Yield
(qq/Ha)
Production
(Tn) Zone
Hectareage (Ha)
TOTAL
2013/14 Season
GRAIN SORGHUM
Up to date, grain sorghum harvest has progressed to 47.2 % of the area countrywide. Overall, some
500 thousand hectares were harvested, yielding an average of 4.58 tons/Ha, and accruing a total volume
of 2.25M Tn. Although weather conditions were good in the last two weeks, there was no significant
harvest progress, due to lack of soil, and the fact that farmers tend to harvest soybean first.
In the NE Area, late plots yielded more than early sowings. Plots from Charata and Las Breas
have been incorporated, where most of the plots were sown in December, going through their cycle in
optimal conditions. However, final yields will depend on how fast harvest is begun, since the area suffers
severe bird attacks.
In the Mid-North of Cordoba and Santa Fe, harvest is moving slowly, with good productivity;
late plots are improving grain moisture and farmers are looking to minimize quality loss.
Based on this framework, final output forecast remains at 4,300,000 tons. If such estimation is
obtained, it will drop -4.5 % from last season, which posted 4.5M Tn.
GRAIN SORGHUM HARVEST As of: Jun. 05, 2014
Sown Lost Harvestable
I NOA 24.000 130 23.870 5,0 1.194 40 4.714
II NEA 245.000 6.100 238.900 49,0 117.061 40 468.244
III Ctro N Cba 134.000 4.600 129.400 55,7 72.076 52 374.794
IV S Cba 44.000 2.000 42.000 33,5 14.070 48 67.536
V Ctro N SFe 205.000 7.200 197.800 63,0 124.614 44 548.302
VI Ncleo Norte 40.000 1.800 38.200 79,0 30.178 61 182.879
VII Ncleo Sur 20.000 600 19.400 43,5 8.439 58 49.199
VIII Ctro E ER 85.000 7.500 77.500 76,0 58.900 48 281.542
IX N LP-OBA 45.000 800 44.200 19,0 8.398 45 37.791
X Ctro BA 8.000 - 8.000 0,0 - - -
XI SO BA-S LP 120.000 - 120.000 0,0 - - -
XII SE BA 7.000 - 7.000 0,0 - - -
XIII SL 52.000 3.100 48.900 57,0 27.873 39 109.541
XIV Cuenca Sal 29.000 600 28.400 50,5 14.342 48 68.842
XV Otras 22.000 900 21.100 78,0 16.458 42 68.301
1.080.000 35.330 1.044.670 47,2 493.602 45,8 2.261.684 TOTAL
2013/14 Season Hectareage (Ha) Porcentage
Harvested
Hectares
Harvested
Yield
(qq/Ha)
Production
(Tn) Zone
Buenos Aires, Jun 05, 2014 Buenos Aires Grains Exchange