WeeklyAgReport

BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE

WEEK ENDED ON Feb. 13, 2014

Referencias: NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero. NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa. Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba. Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros. S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires. Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante. Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires. SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa. SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis. Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.

WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE

FEBRUARY 13, 2014

OUTLOOK SUMMARY
At the beginning of the current perspective, the presence of northerly winds will raise temepratures above normal over most of the agricualtural area. Towards the middle of the perspective, the passage of a storm front will bring abundant precipitations to the north and most of the west of the agricultural area. The front will be accompanied by southerly winds that will lead to a sharp temperature dop in the south of the agricultural area, while the North will remain under the influence of tropical air.

SOYBEAN
After the hydric recovery observed during the last few weeks, most of the central strip has improved its harvest expectations on first and second sowing plots. Nevertheless, a wide area comprised by the west, center and south of Buenos Aires, as well as most of La Pampa and areas of the south of Crdoba, has not been able to offset the poor condition of the first plots which are already in advanced reproductive phases. Within this scenario, after sowing a record surface of 20.35 MHA, we maintain our harvest projection at 53,000,000 tons. Meanwhile, areas of the mid-east of the agricultural region present abundant moisture, which is conducive to the development of diseases and the spreading of plagues. Besides, the lack of ground is hampering the access to the plots in order to perform the necessary controls. Therefore, it will be ncessary to carry out a thourough assessment in the next weeks to assert the harvest expectations in these areas.

In the north of the country, the NW area has replenished the plots in the province of Salta, where the crop is in vegetative phases in good conditions. Toward the south, the area has not recovered from the hydric deficit of the summer, thus leaving plots without sowing and keeping a condition ranging from regular to bad. In Crdoba, the conditions of the plots in the mid-north of the province varies from good to very good, while the crop is starting the grain filling phase (R5) on first plots, or starting to bloom (R1) on second plots. Toward the south of the province the condition of the crop is heterogeneous and varies from regular to good, depending on the rains accumulated during the last weeks. In the mid-north of Santa Fe first sowing soybean is in critical stages of differentiation of pods (R3) in good conditions, while second plots are starting to bloom (R1) in better conditions. Toward the south, the North Belt presents first plots starting the grain filling (R5) with high yield expectations. Toward the South Belt the water excess is more generalized on the east margin, and the sanitary condition of the crop is not favorable either. Finally, the Buenos Aires region maintains a meagre condition of the crop, with a large surface in regular conditions, and only a few areas presenting a good state. Specifically, the region of the west of Buenos Aires and north of La Pampa shows first sowing plots in critical stages of pods differentiation or grain filling (R4-R5).

CORN
The sowing has finished nationwide, and the north of the country has taken advantage of a week with available moisture to fulfill its sowing project. Meanwhile, the collection of early materials incorporated in August continues in the mid-north of Santa Fe, mid-east of Entre Ros and Corrientes. The productivities observed so far are variable, depending on the impact of the thermic stress and the period when it occurred. On the other hand, the area was adjusted from last season (2012/13), due to an underestimation in the mid-north of Crdoba and north of La Pampa-west of Buenos Aires. Therefore, the final production for 2012/13 is modified, going from 24.8 MTN to 27 MTN, some 9 % on top of the original estimation. Consequently, the area projected for the current season 2013/14 will jump from 3.3 MHA, as published in previous reports, to a surface of 3,570,000 HA. The YOY variation remains at 10 % as was previously reported. Taking into account the adjusted area, as well as an average yields nearing 7.0 Tn/ha nationwide, we publish our first production estimate for the ongoing season at 23,500,000 tons. Such volume is around 13 % below the volume collected last season (2012/13: 27 MTN). Although the climatic anomalies during the cycle are an essential factor to make estimations, the recovery of late and second plots aided by the rainfalls will leverage the said volume of harvested corn grain. Likewise, the rains of the month of January and the current February are helping to restore the condition of the late sowing materials. This is mainly observed in the central region of the country, as well as in the NW area. This latter region not only incorporated the plots estimated for this season, but it also increased the surface of the crop as compared to last season, to the detriment of other crops such as soybean, beans and Chia. On the other hand, it is important to point out that plots are still being milled in the north of La Pampa and west of Buenos Aires, due to the severe thermo-hydric stress suffered during the critical period of the crop. The diversity of conditions in the area depend not only on the distribution and the amount of rain received during the cycle, but also on the usage capacity of the soils where the corn is planted on.

CORN PLANTING 2013/14 Season Hectareage (Ha) Zonas 2012/13 2013/14 I NOA 265.000 282.000 II NEA 285.000 302.000 III Ctro N Cba 620.000 580.000 IV S Cba 456.000 410.000 V Ctro N SFe 147.000 136.000 VI Ncleo Norte 510.000 360.000 VII Ncleo Sur 410.000 320.000 VIII Ctro E ER 151.000 151.000 IX N LP-OBA 466.000 424.000 X Ctro BA 225.000 218.000 XI SO BA-S LP 107.000 100.000 XII SE BA 95.000 90.000 XIII SL 137.000 130.000 XIV Cuenca Sal 57.000 48.000 XV Otras 19.000 19.000 TOTAL 3.950.000 3.570.000

As of: Feb. 13, 2014 Porcentage Hectares planted (%) planted 100,0 282.000 100,0 302.000 100,0 580.000 100,0 410.000 100,0 136.000 100,0 360.000 100,0 320.000 100,0 151.000 100,0 424.000 100,0 218.000 100,0 100.000 100,0 90.000 100,0 130.000 100,0 48.000 100,0 19.000 100,0 3.570.000

SUNFLOWER
The harvest of sunflower has advanced by only 0.2% during the last seven days, since there was no significant progress of harvest in the sunflower belts. Consequently, the harvest progress nationwide is 23% of the suitable area, which corresponds to a surface of 335 thousand hectares. The average yield is 1.4 Tn/Ha, while the harvest volumen accrued is around 490 thousand tons, and the final projection remains at 2,300,000 Tn . As we have reported, the harvest finished in the NE area with a low regional yield of 1.15 Tn/Ha. Meanwhile the neighboring region of the mid-north of Santa Fe has not been able to finish the harvest due to the precipitations of the last days. Toward the west of Buenos Aires and North of La Pampa, the first harvest trials have been made. It is important to point out that the surface harvested is not yet significant for the region, since only a few isolated plots were collected. Toward the SE of Buenos Aires it is estimated that 67% of the plots are filling grains, while the remaining 33% is going through physiological maturity, and the collection of the first plots will start in ten days.

SUNFLOWER HARVEST 2012/13 Season Hectareage (Ha) Porcentage Sown Lost Harvestable Harvested (%) Zone I NOA II NEA 230.000 23.000 207.000 100,0 III Ctro N Cba 3.000 150 2.850 20,0 IV S Cba 22.000 22.000 V Ctro N SFe 150.000 750 149.250 82,0 VI Ncleo Norte 7.000 7.000 30,0 VII Ncleo Sur 9.000 9.000 30,0 VIII Ctro E ER 5.000 5.000 IX N LP-OBA 100.000 100.000 X Ctro BA 45.000 45.000 XI SO BA-S LP 420.000 420.000 XII SE BA 380.000 380.000 XIII SL 30.000 30.000 XIV Cuenca Sal 75.000 75.000 XV Otras 4.000 4.000 TOTAL 1.480.000 23.900 1.456.100 23,0

Hectares Harvested 207.000 570 122.385 2.100 2.700 334.755

As of: 13/02/2014 Yield Production (qq/Ha) (Tn) 11,5 238.050 17,0 969 19,2 234.979 22,0 4.620 25,0 6.750 14,6 489.040

GRAIN SORGHUM
The sowing of grain sorghum is finished nationwide, alhough there are still some isolated plots remaining to be sown in the NE area. Although the optimal window has finished, producers might sow some more plots due to the abundant precipitations registered during the last weeks. Up to date, 1,080,000 hectares were covered, such surface being 1.8 % smaller than the one sown last season ( 2012/13: 1,100,000 HA). Comparing the current season with the last one 2012/13, we observe that the largest reduction of area was in the SW of Buenos Aires by a -13 % (2013/14: 120,000 HA, 2012/13: 138,000 HA). On the other margin of the country, the NE area showed an increase by +6.5 % (2013/14: 245,000 HA, 2012/13: 230,000 HA); such increase was observed mainly on late sowing dates on sunflower plots. During the last week the sowing has been focused on the NW and NE areas, where the water availability, though heterogeneous, was enough to continue the sowing at good pace. In the NE area, the early sown plots are going through advanced grain filling phases. On the other hand, the late sown plots range from three leaves unfolded to pre-blooming. Finally, in the SW of Buenos Aires and south of La Pampa the plots are in phases from 6 leaves unfolded to blooming in bad conditions. The bad state of the crop is due to the thermo-hydric stress that has affected the crop for over a month.

GRAIN SORGHUM PLANTING 2013/14 Season Hectareage (Ha) Zone 2012/13 2013/14 I NOA 24.000 24.000 II NEA 230.000 245.000 III Ctro N Cba 134.000 134.000 IV S Cba 47.000 44.000 V Ctro N SFe 195.000 205.000 VI Ncleo Norte 51.500 40.000 VII Ncleo Sur 26.000 20.000 VIII Ctro E ER 96.000 85.000 IX N LP-OBA 42.000 45.000 X Ctro BA 8.000 8.000 XI SO BA-S LP 138.000 120.000 XII SE BA 7.000 7.000 XIII SL 52.000 52.000 XIV Cuenca Sal 29.000 29.000 XV Otras 20.000 22.000 TOTAL 1.100.000 1.080.000

As of: Feb. 13, 2014 Porcentage Hectares planted (%) planted 100,0 24.000 100,0 245.000 100,0 134.000 100,0 44.000 100,0 205.000 100,0 40.000 100,0 20.000 100,0 85.000 100,0 45.000 100,0 8.000 100,0 120.000 100,0 7.000 100,0 52.000 100,0 29.000 100,0 22.000 100,0 1.080.000

Buenos Aires, February 13, 2014

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange