Pakistan Foreign Policy DA

1NC Shell
Kerrys most recent trip places Pakistan relations at the core of foreign policy at a crucial moment CBS News 7/31 [CBS News, "Drones, Afghanistan on the agenda as Kerry visits Pakistan," 7/31,
[Link]

the same lingering issues are confronting John Kerry on his first visit to Pakistan as U.S. secretary of state: the fight against extremism, American drone attacks inside the country and the war in Afghanistan. The Obama administration hasn't sent its top diplomat to Pakistan since 2011, and Kerry's trip is a chance for the former senator to get to know the newly elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who came to power in Pakistan's first transition between civilian governments. Kerry arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday evening, and planned meetings Thursday with civilian and military leaders, including Sharif. Senior administration officials traveling with Kerry told reporters that while relations with Pakistan have grown touchy in recent years, there is the prospect of resetting those ties with Sharif's government and working together on major issues A new set of players but

counterterrorism, energy, regional stability, economic reforms, trade and investment . The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to publicly discuss Kerry's agenda. The prison
break this week that freed hundreds of inmates raises serious questions about Pakistan's ability to battle an insurgency that has raged for years and killed tens of thousands. It has been for some time, and the Pakistanis don't seem to be in any hurry to fix it," said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution who has served as a senior adviser to the

"The U.S.-Pakistan relationship is badly in disrepair.

Relations took a hit after the U.S. raid in 2011 that killed Osama bin Laden in his compound in Abbotabad, Pakistan. Pakistanis felt the raid violated their country's sovereignty.
past four U.S. presidents. While the U.S. is seeking quick responses to its concerns, Sharif is moving slowly, Riedel said, noting that the prime minister has yet to name an ambassador to the United States. Suspected Islamic militants killed at least 160 people during the new government's first month in office. Sharif's government has not articulated an alternate strategy. The U.S. also wants Pakistan to pressure leaders of the Afghan Taliban to negotiate with Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government, renounce violence and sever ties with al-Qaida. Some Pakistani military and intelligence leaders see the U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan, know the American public and U.S. Congress want out of the war, and would be OK with seeing the Taliban retake control of Afghanistan, Riedel said. Pakistani officials will give "lip service" to the idea of reconciliation with the Taliban, he said, but will refrain from acting,

Adding to Kerry's problems is the recent collapse of U.S.-Taliban talks before they began at the insurgent group's political office in Doha, Qatar, and Karzai's decision to suspend talks with the U.S. over a bilateral security agreement.
which will allow the insurgents to remain strong in southern and eastern Afghanistan. Without such a deal, the U.S. will not be able to keep troops in Afghanistan after the U.S.-led NATO combat mission ends at the close of 2014. Kerry planned to for better relations between Islamabad and Kabul. Karzai has announced his intent to visit Pakistan soon, but previous bilateral meetings

Kerry has a long history of dealing with Pakistan. As chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Kerry was a main sponsor of a 2010 law that boosted U.S. assistance to Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year until 2014. The Obama administration enlisted Kerry to help arrange the release of a CIA contractor who was arrested in Pakistan after killing two men in 2011.
have yielded little. Relations Committee, Officials in neighboring Afghanistan are demanding that Pakistan dismantle extremists' havens inside Pakistan and push the Taliban to join the peace process. Both the U.S. and Afghanistan say that if attacks are allowed to continue, the region will never become stability. Pakistani officials say they do not control the Taliban, but Karzai's government isn't convinced. Drone strikes are another point of contention. Washington says it needs to attack

Pakistan contends the drone strikes are a fresh violation of its sovereignty, and they have increased widespread antiAmerican sentiment in the country. The United States has reduced the number of drone attacks against militants in Pakistan and limited strikes to top targets. These moves appear to have appeased Pakistan's generals for now, U.S. officials said. But some officials worry about pushback from the new civilian
dangerous militants with drones because Pakistan's government refuses to engage them militarily. officials, including Sharif, who wants the attacks ended. There have been 16 drone strikes in Pakistan this year, compared with a peak of 122 in 2010, 73 in 2011 and 48 in 2012, according to the New America Foundation, a U.S.-based think tank. While the number has fallen, it's unclear whether the strikes were curtailed only in deference to Pakistan or because there are top targets left, said Jonah Blank, senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corp., a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank.

Diplomatic capital is finite---its a zero-sum game Anderson and Grewell 2K (Terry L., Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center, J. Bishop,
former research associate for PERC. He is a graduate of Stanford University, the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and Northwestern Law School, The Greening of Foreign Policy, PERC Policy Series: PS-20, December 2000, [Link] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Foreign

policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down, lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena, they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. As Schaefer (2000, 46) writes, Because diplomatic currency is finite . . . it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on
issues of paramount importance to the nation. Traditionally, these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions, supporting our allies, securing vital resources, and ensuring access to foreign economies.

Focus on U.S.-Pakistani dialogue is key to solving the energy crisis, which has hampered Pakistans economy and fueled domestic instability Bhutta 13 [Zafar Bhutta, A reporter on the Business Desk at The Express Tribune who is based in Islamabad, "Energy crisis:
Civil nuclear deal back on Pakistan, US agenda," The Express Tribune, 8/2, [Link] ISLAMABAD: Signalling a willingness to break the nuclear cooperation deadlock, Water and Power Minister for Khawaja Asif said on

John Kerry had suggested that Pakistan and the US consider cooperation in civil nuclear technology to meet Islamabads energy needs. We
Thursday that visiting US Secretary of State have informed the visiting secretary of state that

the crippling energy crisis is a bigger threat than

we can consider a civil nuclear

the war on terror.

Hydel and nuclear energy are on our priority list and

deal like India, Asif told a joint press conference with Kerry after holding talks on energy cooperation. Providing details of his discussions with Kerry, Asif said that the US government asked for possible areas where energy cooperation would be possible, including nuclear energy. He added that while the government was
seeking cooperation in wind, solar, hydel and nuclear energy sectors, the government would hold further detailed discussions on the issue of nuclear cooperation in follow-up meetings. Referencing

the civil nuclear energy deal with India, Asif said that with the energy crisis destroying economic output and fuelling instability , the US should consider giving similar technology to Pakistan. The whole world is focusing on the
war on terror, which is a local issue for Pakistan, while our biggest threat is the energy crisis which is causing a loss of Rs1,000 billion each year, said Asif. He said overcoming load-shedding would lead to accelerated economic growth, employment opportunities and would reduce terrorism in the country. Appreciating the efforts of USAID in improving the energy sector in the country, Asif said that the government had also played its part by clearing the Rs500 billion circular debt, resulting in power production reaching 16,000 megawatts. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that

the importance of energy was critical

to the future of Pakistan . He added that USAID had provided technology to

indentify accurate data of power supply, line losses and power theft. We underscore our vital relations with Pakistan and emphasise the importance of energy is future of Pakistan, said Kerr y, adding that
the US Congress had approved over $7 billion aid for Pakistan under Kerry Lugar Bill, which included support for the energy sector. Kerry added that out of the total aid, the US had so far disbursed $3.5 billion, highlighting that the

US government was

committed to providing energy to Pakistan. Change in power subsidy and efficiency in energy sector are must for improvement in power system and I will go to Washington with increased number of energy

projects, said Kerry. Highlighting the wide range of economic initiatives being undertaken by the US through its aid
program, Kerry said that his government was so far funding projects which will add 1,200 megawatts of electricity to the national grid.

Pakistan instability leads to nuclear war and nuclear terrorism Brooks 7 [Peter Brookes, Senior Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, 7/2/2007 (Peter, BARACK'S BLUNDER INVADE A NUCLEAR
POWER? [Link] e=2)

The fall of

might well lead to a takeover by pro-U.S. elements of the Pakistani military ascendance of Islamist factions. The last thing we need is for Islamabad to fall to the extremists. That would exacerbate the problem of those terrorist safe havens that Obama apparently thinks he could invade. And it would also put Pakistan's nuclear arsenal into the wrong hands. That could lead to a number of nightmarish scenarios - a nuclear war with India over Kashmir, say, or the use of nuclear weapons by a terrorist group against any number of targets, including the United States.
- but other possible outcomes are extremely unpleasant, including the

Musharraf's government

Links
Changing Cuban policy would sap Kerrys capital Miroff 13 (Nick, 1-2-13, Can Kerry make friends with Cuba? Global Post)
[Link] HAVANA, Cuba At the last Summit of the Americas, held in Colombia in April, Washingtons rivals in Latin America and its political allies had the same piece of advice for better US diplomacy in the region: get over your Cuba fixation. Now, with Sen. John

Kerry (D-Mass.) likely to be confirmed as the next secretary of state, the United States will have a top diplomat who has been a frequent critic of Americas 50-year-old effort to force regime change in Havana. In recent years, Kerry has been the Senates most prominent skeptic of US-funded prodemocracy efforts that give financial backing to dissident groups in Cuba and beam anti-Castro programming to the island through radio and television programs based in Miami. Kerry

has also favored lifting curbs on US travel to the

island, and opening up American tourism to the only country in the world the US government restricts its own citizens from
visiting. For the rest of Latin America, where leaders say they're eager for Washington to modernize its view of the region and engage in new ways, Cuba remains a litmus test for the Obama presidency, according to Julia Sweig, director of Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The strategic benefits of getting throughout the Americas, said

Cuba right would reverberate

Kerry's instincts

Sweig, calling Kerry ideally suited to the task.

and experience in Latin America are to see past lingering and often toxic ideology in the US Congress and bureaucracy in favor of pragmatism and problem solving, she said. Regardless

of Kerrys record on Cuba policy in the Senate, analysts say he will face several obstacles to major change, not least of which will be the man likely to replace him as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey),
a Cuban American. If Menendez becomes chairman, then the committee responsible for shaping US foreign policy in the upper house will be led by a hardliner who wants to ratchet up not dial back the US squeeze on Havana. So while

Kerry may have some latitude to adjust Cuba policy from inside the White House, Latin America experts dont expect sweeping change like an end to the Cuba Embargo which requires Congressional action.
On Latin America, in general, I think Kerry has a longer and broader vision, said Robert Pastor, professor of international relations at American University. But when

it comes to Cuba, he cautioned, Kerry is also a political realist. Changing US policy is not a high priority for him, but not changing US policy is the only priority for Bob
Menendez, Pastor said. In 2011, Kerry delayed the release of nearly $20 million in federal funds for pro-democracy Cuba projects run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), questioning their effectiveness and insisting on greater oversight. There is no evidence that the democracy promotion programs, which have cost the US taxpayer more than $150 million so far, are helping the Cuban people, Kerry said at the time. Nor have they achieved much more than provoking the Cuban government to arrest a US government contractor. The US government contractor is Alan Gross, jailed on the island since December 2009. Cuban authorities arrested Gross while he worked on a USAID project to set up satellite communications gear that would allow members of Cubas Jewish community to connect to the internet without going through government servers. Cuba sentenced him to 15 years in prison, but now says its willing to work out a prisoner swap for the Cuban Five, a group of intelligence agents who have been serving time in a US federal prison. The Obama administration has refused to negotiate, calling on Havana to release Gross unconditionally, and even US lawmakers who advocate greater engagement with Cuba say no change will be possible as long as hes in jail. The Castro government insists its not willing to give up Gross for nothing. Carlos Alzugaray,

a former Cuban diplomat and scholar of US-Cuba relations at the University of Havana, said a resolution to the Gross case and other significant changes in US policy would require a big

investment of political capital by Kerry

and Obama.

Kerry will get involved in the planhe is key to U.S.-Cuban policy Levy 13 (Arturo, Lecturer and Doctoral Candidate, University of Denver, 4-19-13, Kerrys Cuba Sanity Huffington Post)
[Link]

Admittedly, Kerry has not always applied these lessons properly -- witness his regrettable support for the Bush administration's disastrous invasion of Iraq. But elsewhere, as in

his efforts to ease the archaic U.S. blockade on Cuba, Kerry continues to promote engagement as the fundamental tool of foreign policy. In a
2009 Tampa Bay Times op-ed, for example, Kerry relates how the success of the U.S. rapprochement with Vietnam helped shape his advocacy for improved relations with Cuba, which he presented as a defense of U.S. interests and democratic values. "For 47 years," he wrote, "our embargo in the name of democracy has produced no democracy at all. Too often, our rhetoric and policies have actually furnished the Castro regime with an all-purpose excuse to draw attention away from its many shortcomings." This evidence has informed the future secretary of state's position against the ban on travel to Cuba for U.S. citizens. Based on the experience of tourists from other countries and the return of Cuban-Americans who "have already had a significant impact on increasing the flow of information and hard currency to ordinary Cubans," Kerry understands that unrestricted U.S. travel to Cuba would be "a catalyst for change." The senator also placed a temporary freeze in 2010 on the poorly designed USAID Cuba programs, which have led to the imprisonment of Alan Gross, an agency subcontractor. According to an article by R.M. Schneiderman in Foreign Affairs, the

revision of the Bush administration-designed USAID programs advanced the possibility of Alan Gross's release as a Cuban humanitarian act. Senator Kerry participated in a effort to negotiate a diplomatic solution. With State Department's approval, Kerry met Bruno Rodriguez,
Cuba's ministry of foreign affairs at the residence of the Cuban Ambassador to the United Nations in New York. Unfortunately Senator Robert Menendez , a Cuban-American, stepped in and spoiled the possibility of a negotiated solution. The senator from New Jersey demanded that the full 20 million dollars be spent and the provocative programs be restored. Under the pressure of a delicate balance of forces in the Senate, The White House conceded. Schneiderman quoted Fulton Armstrong, a member of Senator Kerry's staff who was involved in the dialogue with Cuban diplomats. "Poor Alan Gross -- Armstrong wrote -- the Cuban-American lobby had won." Kerry, who has visited Vietnam post-reconciliation, knows that a USAID program there helped to multiply Internet connectivity rates in the country. The USAID program in Vietnam is jointly implemented with the Japanese development agency and with the support of the local government, unlike the Helms-Burton law, which geared USAID programs in Cuba toward regime change and was repudiated in the UN for its unilateralism. The USAID program in Vietnam encourages development, which is what USAID was created for, not efforts to overthrow Hanoi's government. The premise is that a population more affluent, better educated, and more connected will demand more democratic practices. According to Kerry, the United States will never stop supporting human rights in Cuba, simply because they are fundamental values of American society. After all, the United States has continued pushing for civil and political liberties in Vietnam since ending its embargo. Washington does so not because it opposes Hanoi's leaders or to impose a regime change, but as part of a rational strategy of promoting a peaceful evolution to a more open Vietnamese political system. Washington wants stable relationships with the whole Vietnamese nation, not only with the government. Peoples of the world, no matter how suspicious of U.S. motives they may be, appreciate human rights promotion within the framework of international law. President Obama's

designation of John Kerry is also consistent with the political changes that have occurred in the Cuban-American community, expressed by the elevated Cuban diaspora vote for Democrats in the last election. Like Kerry, and as thenSenate candidate Obama stated in 2004, most Cuban-Americans believe that the embargo has failed
and that it is time to influence the processes of economic reform and political liberalization that began in Cuba after the retirement of Fidel Castro. Once

public opinion turned against the war in Vietnam, the political leadership in the U.S. found it had no choice but to follow suit. Kerry is better

positioned than anyone to be a leader and see that point of departure when it
comes to U.S. policy and Cuba.

2NC UQ Now is Key

Sharifs recent election and Kerrys recent appointment suggest both sides will work together Reuters 8/2 [Reuters, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'very soon," 8/2]
A new government in Pakistan and a new secretary of state in Washington have increased hopes the two sides can settle their grievances - something both hope to gain from, with Pakistan's economy badly needing support and the United States aiming to withdraw the bulk of its troops from Afghanistan next year.

Both Kerry as well as Sharif want cooperation to happen--determination is key Reuters 8/2 [Reuters, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'very soon," 8/2]
Speaking after talks with Sharif in Islamabad, Kerry - who as a senator sponsored legislation to provide $7 billion in assistance to Pakistan over 5 years - said he had invited Sharif to visit the United States, Pakistan's biggest donor, for talks with President Barack Obama. "What was important today was that there was a determination ... to move this relationship to the full partnership that it ought to be, and to find the ways to deal with individual issues that have been irritants over the course of the past years," he said. "And I believe that the Prime Minister is serious about doing that. And I know that President Obama is also."

Kerrys history with Pakistan as well as Pakistans recent democratic transition suggest a shift from former hostilities Riechmann 8/1 [Deb Riechmann, AP reporter and writer, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'very
soon," 8/1]

While this is Kerry's first visit to Islamabad as secretary of state, he has a long history of dealing with Pakistan as former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Sharif described him as "a wonderful friend," and Kerry said, "I have had the pleasure of visiting (Sharif's) home and having a number of meals with him." Before heading into a closed-door meeting, Sharif asked Kerry about his wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who was hospitalized after a seizure last month. "She's doing better," Kerry said. Sharif came to power in an election that marked the first time in Pakistan that a civilian government completed its full five-year term and transferred power in democratic elections. The country has a history of civilian leaders being overthrown in military coups. "This is a historic transition that just took place ,"
Kerry told U.S. Embassy employees earlier. "Nobody should diminish it."

2NC UQ Its Working

Following talks, progress has been made---Kerrys recent remarks on drone strikes prove Riechmann 8/1 [Deb Riechmann, AP reporter and writer, "John Kerry hopes US drone strikes in Pakistan will end 'very
soon," 8/1] US Secretary of State John Kerry

suggested Thursday that US drone strikes targeting Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan could end "very soon" as the threat of militancy recedes. It is the first time that such a senior US official has indicated that there could be a definitive end to the program me,
which the CIA has in the past called an effective counter-terrorism weapon. The drone strikes target Islamist militants in Pakistan's semi-autonomous northwestern tribal belt, where Washington says Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives pose a threat to Afghanistan and the West.

Kerry made the remarks in an interview with Pakistan state TV following a day of talks with the newly elected government in Islamabad, which demands that the drone strikes cease. Asked by the interviewer whether Islamabad could expect an end to the strikes, Kerry said: "I think the program
will end as we have eliminated most of the threat and continue to eliminate it." Asked if a timeline was envisaged for ending the strikes, Kerry replied: "Well, I do. And I

think the (US) president has a very real timeline and we hope it's going to be very, very soon.

2NC Impact Energy Key

Energy is crucial to Pakistan Price 7/24 [Gareth Price, "State Weakness and Internal Instability in Pakistan," ISN, 7/24, [Link] Stimulating economic growth, reducing inflation and a mass job creation program would relieve some of the pressure, but

Pakistans energy shortages have crippled local industries. Providing energy security in Pakistan is a critical issue that needs to be addressed urgently. This will require Pakistan to engage its allies, such as China, to invest in major power projects.

Energy is key to Pakistani stability---current status quo factors Kugelman 13 [Michael Kugelman, Michael Kugelman is senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at the
Woodrow Wilson Center, where he is responsible for research, programming, and publications on South and Southeast Asia. His most recent work has focused on Pakistan's 2013 elections, India-Pakistan relations, U.S.-Pakistan relations, and security challenges in India. He received his B.A. from American University's School of International Service, "Pakistans Energy Crisis: From Conundrum to Catastrophe?," NBR, 3/13, [Link] With no end in sight, the

implications of Pakistans energy crisis are stark and go well beyond threats to the countrys economic well-being and stability. Pakistan is currently in the midst of two major societal shifts that could worsen the effects of its energy problems in the years ahead. One is urbanization. While today the majority of Pakistans population is rural, estimates suggest that at least 50% could be concentrated in urban areas by the 2020s. Demand for electricity is particularly high in cities, because urban-area industries and homes tend to be more dependent than those in the hinterland on grid-connected energy sources. With droves of Pakistanis entering cities and becoming dependent on grids, pressures on supply will deepen exponentially. Pakistans other notable societal shift that could worsen the energy crisis is the devolution of governance from the federal level to the provincial and local levels. Thanks to the 18th constitutional
amendment, which President Asif Ali Zardari signed in 2010, federal ministerial responsibilities and resources are being passed down to local authorities and agencies. This means that many new energy-related functions and duties are being foisted upon provincial and district governments, which suffer from even more capacity constraints, inefficiencies, and financial troubles than their federal counterpart. Local

governments will likely inherit the ineffective policies of the federal government as well. Given the central governments inability to address the countrys energy crisis, there is even less reason to expect that short-handed local-level authorities are up to the task. How long can Pakistan ride out this storm? Today, many Pakistanis are getting by through their own resourcefulness, as they do on so many occasions when their government fails to provide basic services. This winter, some residents have coped with the nations worst gas shortage on record by
fashioning homemade pumps from old refrigerators and sucking gas out of distribution systems. Others have done their cooking only when gas stations are closedthe only time they receive any pressure.

Time is running out , however.

Pakistan faces rapidly dwindling foreign reserves and a plunging currency that late last year fell to a record low, and double-digit inflation is projected to hit this year. There is the very real fear that Pakistan could soon find itself unable to afford to address its energy crisismeaning that even stopgap, short-term measures to expand power generation could be eliminated. Such a scenario would presumably increase the frequency and violence of public protests and threaten the states ability to maintain order. The consequences could be catastrophic for the countrys economy and stability.