WeeklyAgReport
BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE
WEEK ENDED ON Aug. 01, 2013
CROP REPORT - HIGHLIGHTS
Estimations and Agricultural Projections Department Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
Referencias: NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero. NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa. Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba. Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros. S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires. Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante. Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires. SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa. SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis. Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.
WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE
August 1, 2013
AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: AUGUST 1 TO 7, 2013: PRECIPITATIONS ON HE EAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL AREA AND SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP.
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
At the beginning of the perspective, the presence of northerly winds will maintain temperatures above normal and provide abundant humidity to most of the agricultural area. The entrance of warm and humid winds will bring precipitations. The main focus will affect the northeast of the agricultural area while the center will only report scattered precipitations. Winds will then rotate to the south/ southwest leading to a sharp temperature drop over most of the agricultural area, with frosts risks on the west and south.
CORN
The commercial corn season is nearly finished, reporting a harvest progress rate of 96.5 % of the suitable area nationwide. The weekly progress rate is around 3.3% and the YOY increase reports 0.8%. Our production estimate for this season (2012/13) remains at 24,800,000 tons, with an average yield of 7.26 Tn/Ha. If this estimation is accomplished, we will obtain the best corn harvest in the history of Argentina. However, we can not say the same about the average yield, which will rank fourth as compared to the seasons of 2009/10= 8.64 Tn/Ha; 2006/07= 8.0 Tn/Ha; 2004/05= 7.7 Tn/Ha. Several climatic factors such as water excess, early and late frosts, and a new summer drought have resulted in heterogeneous yields this season, preventing the final volume from increasing, as was expected at the start of the cycle. As reported in previous documents, the standing plots present excess of water in the grain. In most of the cases producers prefer to let the grains dry on the ground, even if it delays the harvest for several days, instead of increasing costs by artificial drying.
CORN HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Aug. 01,2013
Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras
Hectareage (Ha) Sown Lost Harvestable
Porcentage Harvested
Hectares
Yield
Production (Tn)
Harvested (qq/Ha)
265.000 285.000 450.000 456.000 147.000 459.000 410.000 151.000 416.000 225.000 107.000 94.000 137.000 57.000 19.000
70.000 15.400 13.000 50.000 11.200 15.000 17.000 7.500 22.000 11.000 6.000 4.500 6.000 5.500 2.500
195.000 269.600 437.000 406.000 135.800 444.000 393.000 143.500 394.000 214.000 101.000 89.500 131.000 51.500 16.500
91 98 93 95 94 99 98 98 96 99 99 99 97 99 100
178.255 264.855 405.296 383.879 127.795 438.881 385.802 140.190 379.219 212.044 100.026 88.554 127.585 51.210 16.500
TOTAL
3.678.000 256.600
3.421.400
96,5 3.300.093
29,1 518.394 49,0 1.297.790 74,0 2.999.193 73,0 2.802.319 69,1 883.062 94,0 4.125.483 90,1 3.476.072 61,3 859.367 78,0 2.957.912 80,1 1.699.404 52,3 523.476 84,1 745.000 51,0 650.239 79,7 407.925 52,4 86.437 72,8 24.032.072
WHEAT
The planting of wheat is at its final stage, so far reporting progress by 95.3 % out of 3,900,000 hectares estimated nationwide for this season. In total numbers, a little over 3.7 MHA were covered. The weekly progress rate can be calculated as 2.6%, and the YOY increase as 1.3%. Nearly 80% of the pending area is concentrated in the south of Buenos Aires. If the good weather continues, the covering fieldwork is expected to finish within the next 15 days, aided by good hydric conditions. The NW area continues to suffer a strong hydric deficit which affects wheat plots on dryland. On the contrary, the plots with low irrigation are evolving favourably. In the NE area, the dryland plots present better conditions than in the NW, thanks to the continuous rainfalls observed during the last months. Nearly 80 % of the surface is observed to be tillering, while the remaining area is at V2-V4. In the mid-north of Crdoba, the bulk of the plots are ranging from beginning to full tillering stages, reporting delays in development due to low temperatures and lack of moisture, especially in the northwest of the area. In the north and south belts, the plots are evolving well with sufficient moisture supplies. The long cycle plots are starting the tillering phase, therefore, producers are carrying out nitrogen fertilization in order to maintain the crop in good conditions, and thus obtain good yields and grain quality. In the south of Buenos Aires and La Pampa the planting reported delays stemming from lack of moisture, which were later reverted by the accumulated rains of the last few weeks. Nevertheless, the pending area is still 10 days away from planting with good moisture conditions. The most advanced plots are passing through the pre-tillering phase in optimal conditions, while the ones sown in the last weeks took from 20 to 30 days to emerge, due to a scarce hydric supply and low temperatures. Finally, in the east of Buenos Aires the covering fieldwork has finished, presenting plots with delayed development due to low temperatures, ranging from 2 to 3 expanded leaves to early tillering.
WHEAT PLANTING
2013/14 SEASON
As Of: Aug 01, 2013
Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras
Hectareage (ha) 2012/13 2013/14
Percentage Hectares planted (%) planted
TOTAL
340.000 50.000 190.000 170.000 265.000 320.000 130.000 156.000 160.000 192.000 265.000 315.000 240.000 280.000 150.000 180.000 210.000 245.000 140.000 165.000 680.000 840.000 770.000 915.000 3.000 4.000 50.000 60.000 7.000 8.000 3.600.000 3.900.000
100 50.000 100 170.000 100 320.000 100 156.000 100 192.000 100 315.000 100 280.000 100 180.000 100 245.000 98 161.700 94 789.600 86 786.900 100 4.000 100 60.000 100 8.000 95,3 3.718.200
GRAIN SORGHUM
During the last fifteen days the harvest of grain sorghum reported progress by 5 %, thus marking an advance of 98 % of the suitable area nationwide. In total numbers, 995 thousand hectares were gathered, which contributed a volume near to 4.4 million tons, and an average yield of 4.41 Tn/Ha. There are still nearly 20,000 hectares pending harvest, which concentrate in the areas of the NE, north of La Pampa-west of Buenos Aires, southwest of Buenos Aires-south of La Pampa, southeast of Buenos Aires and Cuenca del Salado. Today these plots are losing moisture in the grains, and the gathering is expected to finish in the next few weeks. Consequently, the estimated production will reach 4,500,000 MTN for the current season. If such production volume is accomplished, it will rank 9.8 % on top of the volume collected last season (2011/12). This sorghum season has suffered several weather impacts throughout the cycle. The other recurrent threat observed during this season and the ones before this one is the birds plague. The parrots and pidgeons plague spreads throughout the country, causing increasing losses of yield in crops such as sorghum and sunflower. Therefore, producers continue to search for alternatives to minimize the losses, which not only affect their production but also their economy.
GRAIN SORGHUM HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Aug. 01, 2013
Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras
Hectareage (Ha) Sown Lost Harvestable
Porcentage Hectares harvested
Yield
Production (Tn)
harvested (qq/Ha)
24.000 230.000 134.000 47.000 195.500 51.500 26.000 96.000 42.000 8.000 138.000 7.000 52.000 29.000 20.000
3.600 10.500 9.500 4.500 18.000 1.800 1.000 8.000 3.300 700 7.600 400 3.000 2.300 5.000
20.400 219.500 124.500 42.500 177.500 49.700 25.000 88.000 38.700 7.300 130.400 6.600 49.000 26.700 15.000
100 91 100 100 100 100 100 100 98 100 97 95 100 99 100
20.400 199.745 124.500 42.500 177.500 49.700 25.000 88.000 37.926 7.300 126.488 6.270 49.000 26.433 15.000
38,0 34,0 55,0 56,0 40,0 64,0 63,0 45,0 48,0 50,0 35,0 48,0 48,0 55,0 40,0
77.520 679.133 684.750 238.000 710.000 318.080 157.500 396.000 182.045 36.500 442.708 30.096 235.200 145.382 60.000
TOTAL
1.100.000
79.200
1.020.800
98
995.762
44,1
4.392.913
Buenos Aires, August, 01, 2013
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange