Weekly Commodity Price Update
Weekly Commodity Price Update
com/economics
TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report
May 11, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars surged 8.1% last week, reductions in active rig counts will slow production.
reaching its highest level since early January. The Nonetheless, short-term fundamentals remain weak,
increase was driven largely by an 11% rise in energy with U.S. storage levels 23% ahead of the 5-year
prices and an 8% jump in base metals prices. Due to average, and demand unlikely to pickup anytime
a strengthening loonie, the index in Canadian dollar soon.
terms was up by a more modest 5.2% and sits at a • Base metals prices were up across the board, led by
1-month high. a 12% gain in nickel and zinc prices. Like energy
• Crude oil prices hit a 6-month high of US$58 per prices, metals prices are rising on optimism that the
barrel last week, prompted by better-than-expected global recession is easing. Furthermore, a rise in
economic data reported in the U.S. However, the manufacturing activity in China has triggered specu-
fundamental picture suggests that the recent run-up lation that Chinese demand for metals will pick up.
in prices has been overdone, as inventories remain A drop in LME inventories also provided support to
elevated and demand is still contracting. As such, prices.
prices have lost some ground this morning as markets • The 8% weekly drop in hog prices masks the uptrend
refocus on the fundamentals. seen during the second half of the week. Indeed,
• Halting a 5-week slide, natural gas prices surged 15% prices rose from US$55 to just under US$60 by Fri-
last week, settling back above the US$4 per MMBtu day on expectations that the impact from the H1N1
mark on Friday. Much of the gains were driven by flu on the pork market will begin to ease, leading to
technical buying and speculation that the massive a recovery in exports.
Dina Cover 416-982-2555
380 600
Overall TDCI
330
500
280
400
230
300
180
TDCI Ex. Energy
130 200
80 100
May-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 May-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 8, 2008. Source: TD Economics. Last week plotted: May 8, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
Last week plotted: May 8, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly. Last week plotted: May 8, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
240
105
220
100
200
95 180
160
90
140
85
120
80 100
May-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 May-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 8, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly. Last week plotted: May 8, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
WEEKLY AVG
05-Dec-08 188.1 130.7 99.1 240.2 228.2 145.1 133.3 236.6 164.4 124.6 302.1 286.9 182.5 167.6 1.26
12-Dec-08 178.4 129.3 97.0 223.1 237.5 140.2 134.0 222.6 161.3 121.0 278.2 296.2 174.9 167.2 1.25
19-Dec-08 172.6 129.8 95.5 211.5 251.7 137.0 139.6 210.2 158.1 116.3 257.5 306.4 166.8 170.0 1.22
26-Dec-08 162.2 130.8 95.1 190.6 256.0 138.0 142.5 197.3 159.2 115.7 232.0 311.5 168.0 173.4 1.22
02-Jan-09 176.8 132.0 94.4 217.5 260.3 141.3 142.9 215.3 160.7 114.9 264.9 317.0 172.1 174.0 1.22
09-Jan-09 182.6 134.7 93.7 226.1 253.6 151.7 146.1 217.0 160.1 111.3 268.6 301.3 180.2 173.6 1.19
16-Jan-09 166.6 129.6 92.6 200.2 245.7 141.6 140.7 206.1 160.3 114.6 247.7 304.0 175.2 174.0 1.24
23-Jan-09 166.3 129.5 91.7 199.7 255.4 139.5 140.7 209.6 163.2 115.6 251.7 322.0 175.9 177.3 1.26
30-Jan-09 166.2 130.1 91.2 199.0 270.2 137.8 140.8 203.3 159.1 111.5 243.4 330.4 168.5 172.2 1.22
06-Feb-09 164.9 130.6 89.7 196.0 273.6 140.6 140.3 203.5 161.1 110.7 241.9 337.6 173.6 173.2 1.23
13-Feb-09 159.3 130.3 89.9 185.7 278.5 138.6 138.7 197.1 161.2 111.3 229.7 344.5 171.5 171.5 1.24
20-Feb-09 154.0 128.3 89.8 177.3 292.5 131.6 132.0 193.6 161.3 112.9 222.9 367.7 165.4 166.0 1.26
27-Feb-09 157.0 127.7 89.6 183.6 291.0 130.3 131.8 196.8 160.1 112.3 230.2 364.9 163.4 165.2 1.25
06-Mar-09 158.7 126.2 87.8 188.3 277.0 131.9 132.6 204.2 162.3 113.0 242.2 356.5 169.7 170.6 1.29
13-Mar-09 157.5 126.1 87.4 185.9 275.3 132.5 133.5 202.4 162.1 112.3 239.0 353.9 170.2 171.6 1.29
20-Mar-09 161.9 127.7 86.5 193.0 278.7 136.1 136.8 203.6 160.6 108.8 242.6 350.3 171.1 172.0 1.26
27-Mar-09 167.3 128.1 86.4 203.0 281.4 137.4 135.1 206.0 157.6 106.3 249.9 346.3 169.2 166.3 1.23
03-Apr-09 160.5 126.9 84.7 191.1 274.9 137.8 135.8 200.8 158.7 105.9 239.0 343.8 172.4 169.9 1.25
10-Apr-09 161.0 128.3 85.1 190.7 263.6 144.1 138.1 198.6 158.3 105.0 235.2 325.0 177.7 170.3 1.23
17-Apr-09 161.1 131.4 85.4 188.1 265.5 153.4 137.3 195.1 159.1 103.4 227.8 321.6 185.8 166.3 1.21
24-Apr-09 157.6 130.9 85.9 181.7 267.5 149.0 140.5 193.7 160.9 105.6 223.4 328.8 183.2 172.7 1.23
01-May-09 159.5 130.9 85.7 185.5 268.4 148.5 141.2 191.9 157.5 103.1 223.1 323.0 178.6 169.9 1.20
08-May-09 172.4 134.7 85.2 206.6 273.8 160.1 141.1 201.9 157.8 99.8 241.9 320.6 187.5 165.2 1.17
WEEKLY AVG
05-Dec-08 225.00 793.64 765.00 45.50 6.44 76.09 769.30 9.49
12-Dec-08 221.00 758.90 765.00 44.71 5.69 78.25 798.30 10.17
19-Dec-08 213.00 743.75 765.00 39.65 5.67 77.81 845.05 10.87
26-Dec-08 210.00 742.21 765.00 32.37 5.42 80.56 859.94 11.01
02-Jan-09 209.00 740.01 755.00 42.50 5.66 79.19 874.83 11.15
09-Jan-09 207.00 728.77 755.00 44.51 5.85 81.44 850.65 11.06
16-Jan-09 203.00 715.50 755.00 36.91 5.40 81.46 823.75 10.77
23-Jan-09 197.00 709.84 755.00 42.18 4.80 88.19 854.25 11.45
30-Jan-09 193.00 707.25 755.00 42.52 4.75 83.15 902.95 12.21
06-Feb-09 191.00 701.11 735.00 40.50 4.84 78.17 912.15 12.62
13-Feb-09 199.00 688.09 735.00 36.91 4.71 80.28 924.30 13.34
20-Feb-09 200.00 682.27 735.00 36.99 4.32 76.34 968.80 14.25
27-Feb-09 199.00 680.37 735.00 41.81 4.16 65.32 967.40 13.74
06-Mar-09 197.00 679.34 705.00 43.26 4.24 61.70 921.70 13.00
13-Mar-09 198.00 667.67 705.00 45.68 3.88 62.10 915.60 12.97
20-Mar-09 193.00 661.14 705.00 49.46 3.83 60.30 927.75 13.00
27-Mar-09 192.00 660.23 705.00 53.09 3.92 61.39 932.85 13.59
03-Apr-09 196.00 657.17 665.00 50.32 3.64 60.79 914.35 12.92
10-Apr-09 202.00 652.70 665.00 50.46 3.60 63.24 877.63 12.28
17-Apr-09 208.00 645.38 665.00 49.80 3.55 63.12 882.38 12.59
24-Apr-09 212.00 646.00 665.00 47.83 3.45 63.11 891.35 12.41
01-May-09 210.00 647.15 665.00 51.07 3.29 62.26 892.90 12.61
08-May-09 206.00 646.06 665.00 56.00 3.78 63.70 904.75 13.58
WEEKLY AVG
5-Dec-08 71.74 153.85 4.24 51.93 55.00 316.95 127.71 309.23 84.47 58.14
12-Dec-08 66.96 142.00 4.40 48.90 54.00 319.99 127.01 319.83 83.19 58.12
19-Dec-08 64.99 134.31 4.41 48.17 53.00 332.63 136.66 334.59 85.00 62.50
26-Dec-08 67.71 128.93 4.41 50.81 53.00 341.82 140.85 344.95 86.33 61.08
2-Jan-09 66.34 131.84 4.89 51.44 53.00 344.04 139.60 351.23 86.13 59.73
9-Jan-09 69.81 147.63 5.55 56.73 53.00 347.34 144.44 375.80 86.47 63.59
16-Jan-09 65.73 146.38 4.74 55.47 51.00 334.71 133.03 363.14 83.59 60.96
23-Jan-09 60.57 145.25 4.98 52.57 51.00 336.73 133.12 362.15 83.30 59.79
30-Jan-09 59.51 146.38 5.11 50.31 48.00 341.01 136.24 365.24 81.93 57.20
6-Feb-09 62.27 149.27 5.18 51.36 48.00 337.61 131.11 364.10 83.26 57.50
13-Feb-09 62.22 155.31 4.85 51.72 47.00 326.44 129.34 371.61 84.45 57.36
20-Feb-09 58.65 146.34 4.45 49.19 47.00 301.13 126.33 352.11 81.96 61.18
27-Feb-09 58.14 150.37 4.40 49.44 45.00 304.26 125.20 349.03 81.80 58.34
6-Mar-09 58.52 160.41 4.41 52.07 43.75 303.07 121.86 342.64 84.46 61.17
13-Mar-09 58.79 163.58 4.37 54.78 43.50 307.88 124.49 345.02 83.10 61.64
20-Mar-09 61.69 172.60 4.49 55.30 42.50 314.53 130.29 362.29 84.51 62.47
27-Mar-09 62.80 179.89 4.37 57.19 42.50 304.72 135.50 366.63 85.26 60.89
3-Apr-09 62.19 182.39 4.44 58.57 42.00 312.31 133.03 362.77 84.02 60.21
10-Apr-09 65.09 197.41 4.84 60.35 40.00 318.05 130.22 373.21 86.47 59.16
17-Apr-09 66.19 213.41 5.49 66.36 40.50 305.02 131.46 383.20 87.72 63.44
24-Apr-09 64.13 203.09 5.22 64.35 42.00 310.86 129.52 389.14 87.79 70.64
1-May-09 64.57 197.80 5.08 62.37 44.00 323.21 134.64 398.39 85.46 62.46
8-May-09 68.43 212.52 5.69 69.75 46.00 327.07 139.10 420.09 82.13 57.37
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