DAILY I FOREX REPORT
11THAPRIL 2013
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HEADLINES
Euro Rally Continues For A Seventh Day Despite Juncker Pessimism Australian Dollar Rallies As China Announces Trade Deficit
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD
US Dollar Looks to Earnings Docket, FOMC Minutes for Direction
US Dollar Looks to Earnings Docket, FOMC Minutes for Direction Cues Italian Bill Sale Headlines Otherwise Quiet European Economic Calendar Australian Dollar Gains as Chinese Import Growth Soars Past Forecasts
ABOVE 1.3125 tgs 1.3145/1.3165sl 1.3095
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
The spotlight turns to the fourth-quarter corporate earnings calendar. Reports from alcohol beverage maker Constellation Brands Inc and discount retailer Family Dollar StoresInc may offer insight on the health of the US consumer against the backdrop of fiscal austerity following Januarys payroll tax hike and the recent onset of sequester spending cuts. Industrial and construction supplies provider Fastenal Co will be looked upon as a gauge of overall global growth trends. Encouraging cues may boost risk appetite and weigh on the US Dollar. The greenback may find added selling pressure as the Federal Reserve releases minutes from the March meeting of the policy-setting FOMC committee. A dovish tone in the wake of last weeks disappointing ISM and NFP data is likely to reinforce the view that Ben Bernanke and company are in no hurry to slow their aggressive stimulus efforts, driving dilution fears and weighing on the benchmark US currency. We remain long EURUSD.
99.50 tgt 99.70/99.90 SL 99.20
BUY GBPUSD
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ABOVE 1.5325 Tgt
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HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3029 HIGH: 1.3068 LOW: 1.3005 CLOSE: 1.3042
EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND : BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.0005(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 55(BULLISH SIGNAL)
USDJPY CHART HOURLY HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 99.33 HIGH: 99.50 LOW: 98.70 CLOSE: 98.91
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD => -0.07( BULLIISH SIGNAL) RSI =>48(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD GBPUSD CHART HOURLY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5263 HIGH: 1.5325 LOW: 1.5250 CLOSE: 1.5307
GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD => .002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLYEURGBP EURGBP CHART CHART HOURLY
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8536 HIGH: 0.8560 LOW: 0.8507 CLOSE: 0.8520
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>45(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 82.7400 HIGH: 82.7430 LOW: 82.4710 CLOSE: 82.5620
USDINDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>0.22(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date
Sun Apr 7
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAR) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAR) 23:01 GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (MAR) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (MAR) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (FEB) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (FEB) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (FEB) JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (FEB) USD International Economic Forum 01:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (MAR) CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (4Q) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (APR) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)
Low
0.1%
Low
1.4%
Low
-45
-44
23:30
Medium
39.0
45.6
23:50
Low
457.5B
637.4B
-364.8B
23:50
Low
-0.1B
-62.0B
364.6B
23:50
Medium
-667.0B
-660.1B
-1479.3B
23:50
Mon Apr 8
Low
-47%
-59.1%
-19.9%
Low
Low
-1.5%
3.0%
04:30
Medium
-20.0%
-11.8%
05:00
Medium
57.3
53.2
05:00
Medium
57.5
57.7
06:30
Low
A$48.7B
A$43.7B
07:15
Medium
1.7%
2.5%
08:30
Medium
-17.3
-12.8
-10.6
10:00
Low
0.5%
0.3%
-0.6%%
10:00
Medium
-1.8%
-0.9%
-2.6%
12:30
USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on the Economy in West Palm Beach, FL CAD Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey (1Q) CAD Business Outlook Future Sales (1Q) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like YoY (MAR) GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAR) USD Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Atlanta Fed Conference in Georgia NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (MAR) AUD NAB Business Conditions (MAR) AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) CHF Unemployment Rate (MAR) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (FEB) EUR German Current Account (euros) (FEB) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (FEB) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (FEB) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR P) EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (MAR) EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (FEB) EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (FEB) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
Low
14:30
Medium
-3.4
14:30
Medium
15.00
16.00
23:01
Low
1.0%
2.7%
23:01
Medium
-5%
-6%
23:15
Tue Apr 9
Medium
00:00
Low
6.3%
01:30
Low
-3
01:30
Medium
01:30
High
2.5%
3.2%
01:30
Medium
-1.8%
-1.6%
05:45
Medium
3.3%
3.4%
05:45
Medium
3.1%
3.1%
06:00
Medium
15.0B
13.7B
06:00
Low
14.2B
11.3B
06:00
Low
-0.1%
3.3%
06:00
Low
-0.3%
1.3%
06:00
Medium
-21.5%
06:30
Low
95
96
06:45
Low
-5445M
-5862M
06:45
Low
-12.8B
07:15
Medium
0.3%
0.3%
07:15
Medium
-0.5%
-0.3%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (FEB) EUR Italian Hourly Wages (MoM) (FEB) EUR Italian Hourly Wages (YoY) (FEB) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB) GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (FEB) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (FEB) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (FEB) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (MAR) CAD Housing Starts (MAR) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (FEB) USD Fed's Lacker Speaks in Richmond (FEB) USD Wholesale Inventories (FEB) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (MAR) USD JOLTs Job Openings (FEB) USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (FEB) USD Fed's Lockhart to Give Welcome at Stone Mountain, Georgia NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.3%
07:15
Medium
0.1%
07:15
Medium
2.5%
1.9%
08:00
Low
0.1%
08:00
Low
1.7%
08:30
Low
0.4%
-1.2%
08:30
Medium
-2.8%
-2.9%
08:30
Low
0.4%
-1.5%
08:30
Medium
-1.4%
-3.0%
08:30
Medium
-8600
-8195
08:30
Low
-3650
-3280
08:30
Low
-2800
-2362
11:30
Low
90.5
90.8
12:15
Medium
175.0K
178.0K
12:30
Low
3.0%
1.7%
13:30
Low
14:00
Low
1.2%
14:00
Medium
-0.1%
14:00
Low
3730
3693
14:00
Low
1.5%
-0.8%
17:00
Low
22:45
Medium
0.3%
0.8%
22:45
NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (MAR) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (MAR) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (MAR) CNY Trade Balance (USD) (MAR) CNY Exports (YoY) (MAR) CNY Imports (YoY) (MAR) CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MAR) CNY New Yuan Loans (MAR) CNY Money Supply M0 (YoY) (MAR) CNY Money Supply M1 (YoY) (MAR) CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (MAR) CNY Aggregate Financing (MAR)
Medium
0.8%
23:50
Low
1.9%
23:50
Wed Apr 10
Low
1.5%
Medium
$15.25B
Low
21.8%
Low
-15.2%
Medium
$3310.0B
High
620.0B
Low
17.2%
Low
9.5%
Low
15.2%
Medium
1070.0B
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR) EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB) EUR French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB) EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB) EUR Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (FEB) EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB) EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 5)
Medium
2.0%
00:30
Low
110.5
06:45
Low
-1.2%
06:45
Low
-3.5%
06:45
Medium
-1.4%
06:45
Medium
-4.5%
08:00
Low
0.8%
08:00
Low
-3.6%
08:00
Low
-0.6%
11:00
Low
12:20
USD Fed's Lockhart to Speak on Financial Stability at Conference USD Fed's Kocherlakota Moderates a Panel in Stone Mountain, GA USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (APR 5) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (APR 5) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (APR 5) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (APR 5) USD Monthly Budget Statement (MAR) USD Fed Releases Minutes from Mar 1920 FOMC Meeting USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy in El Paso TX NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic (MAR) NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAR) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (MAR) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAR) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (MAR) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (MAR) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (APR 5) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (APR 5) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (APR 5) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (APR 5) JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (FEB)
Low
12:30
Low
14:30
Low
14:30
Low
439K
14:30
Low
14:30
Low
18:00
Medium
18:00
High
21:00
Low
22:00
Low
22:30
Medium
56.3
23:50
Low
2.9%
23:50
Low
2.4%
23:50
Low
0.4%
23:50
Low
-0.1%
23:50
Low
23:50
Low
23:50
Low
23:50
Low
23:50
Medium
-13.1%
23:50
Thu Apr 11
JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (FEB) AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (APR) AUD Employment Change (MAR) AUD Unemployment Rate (MAR) AUD Full Time Employment Change (MAR) AUD Part Time Employment Change (MAR) AUD Participation Rate (MAR) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) (MAR) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR F) EUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR) EUR French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR) EUR French Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAR) EUR French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) EUR French Consumer Price Index Ex Tobacco Index (MAR) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Hong Kong USD Import Price Index (MoM) (MAR) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
Medium
-9.7%
01:00
Medium
2.3%
01:30
High
71.5K
01:30
High
5.4%
01:30
Medium
17.8K
01:30
Medium
53.7K
01:30
Low
65.3%
02:00
Low
8.57
06:00
Medium
06:00
High
06:00
Medium
06:00
High
06:45
Low
0.3%
06:45
Low
1.2%
06:45
Low
0.3%
06:45
Low
1.0%
06:45
Low
124.72
10:00
Low
12:30
Low
1.1%
12:30
Low
-0.3%
12:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (FEB) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (FEB) USD Fed's Bullard Gives Welcoming Remarks in Washington USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 6) USD Continuing Claims (MAR 30) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (APR 5) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (MAR) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (FEB) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (FEB) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (FEB) NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAR) EUR French Current Account (euros) (FEB) EUR Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR F) EUR Italian General Government Debt (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (FEB) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR) USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (MAR) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAR) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR) USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (MAR)
Low
0.1%
12:30
Medium
2.2%
12:30
Low
12:30
Medium
12:30
Low
14:30
Low
22:45
Low
-0.3%
23:50
Fri Apr 12
Medium
-1.1%
01:30
Low
$A48.7B
01:30
Low
$A19.8B
03:00
Low
66.7%
06:45
Low
-5.0B
08:00
Low
08:30
Medium
2022.7B
09:00
Low
-0.4%
09:00
Medium
-1.3%
12:30
Medium
0.7%
12:30
High
1.1%
12:30
Medium
1.0%
12:30
Medium
0.2%
12:30
Low
1.7%
12:30
Medium
0.4%
12:30
USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (MAR) USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Boston USD U. of Michigan Confidence (APR P) USD Business Inventories (FEB)
High
1.7%
12:30
Low
0.4%
12:45
Low
13:55
High
14:00
Medium
1.0%
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