WeeklyAgReport

BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE

WEEK ENDED ON Mar. 14, 2013

Referencias: NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero. NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa. Ctro N Sfe: Centro-Norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-Norte de Crdoba. Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-Sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros. S Cba: Sur de Crdoba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+ Oeste de Buenos Aires. Ctro E ER: Entre Ros excluido Victoria y Diamante. Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires. SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa. SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires. SL: San Luis. Cuenca Sal: Este de la Cuenca del Salado. Otras: Corrientes+Misiones.

WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE

March 14, 2013

OUTLOOK SUMMARY
The entrance of southerly winds in the preceding days has dropped temperatures below normal. This condition will mainly affect minimum temperatures, with likelihood of local frosts over the south of the agricultural area. Precipitations will be scarce across most of the agricultural area. However, eastern Paraguay, central NOA, part of Cuyo, the far north of Mesopotamia and eastern Uruguay will report precipitations ranging from moderate to abundant. Later, northerly winds will return leading to a moderate rise in temperatures.

SOYBEAN
Up to date, the estimation of productivity remains at 48,500,000 tons; however, the target volume is subject to good weather for the proper evolution of the plots towards harvest time. At the launch of the present issue there were minimum temperature registers below average in wide areas of the south of Buenos Aires. Although there is still no register of temperatures below zero, some low values detected might interrupt the crop cycle and thus affect the potential yield on harvest. All the surface sown in December and early January is mostly going through pods differentiation phases (R3R4). On the central strip of the agricultural area the first collections were made in areas of the mid-north and south of Crdoba, with yields averaging 2 to 2.3 tons/Ha. Since the week before the current report we have also registered specific collections in areas of the north belt and mid-east of Entre Ros. Finally, in the provinces of the north of the agricultural area the hydric condition is still poor in many locations of the NW area, and the yield expectations are down by a 30 % compared to historical averages. Towards the NE area, the hydric supply on the plots vary from regular to good, and the yield expectation is nearing the regional average of the last twelve years.

CORN
The precipitations of the last seven days are delaying the harvest in the belt area and its surroundings. In addition, these hydric contributions help recover the moisture on the plots of late and second seeding. On the other hand, the decrease of average temperature is worrying the producers, since many areas are passing through critical yield generating phases, such as the central strip of the agricultural area, La Pampa, south of Cordoba, Buenos Aires and Entre Ros. So far, 12.4 % of the suitable area has been collected, which represents an overall figure of more than 450 thousand hectares, with a national average yield of 7.8 Tn/Ha and an accrued volume of 3.57 million tons. The weekly progress rate is 4 %, and the YOY increase is only 0.4%. The yields expected on early sown plots should be similar to or larger than the historical averages. However the plots sown in late October and November were more affected by the long period of high temperatures and scarce precipitations. Under these conditions, we maintain our estimation for commercial corn production in 25,000,000 TN. This represents an increase of 16 % as compared to the volume obtained the last season (2011/12, 21.5 MTN). If this volume is reached, we will have a record productivity.

CORN HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Mar. 14,2013

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras

Hectareage (Ha) Sown Lost

Porcentage

Hectares Harvested

Yield (qq/Ha)

Production (Tn)

Harvestable Harvested

265.000 285.000 450.000 456.000 147.000 459.000 410.000 151.000 416.000 225.000 107.000 94.000 137.000 57.000 19.000

0 0 1.800 0 4.410 1.744 1.311 2.008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

265.000 285.000 448.200 456.000 142.590 457.256 408.689 148.992 416.000 225.000 107.000 94.000 137.000 57.000 19.000

0 0 7 6 47 28 21 46 7 4 2 0 0 4 30

0 0 30.870 26.448 67.032 127.037 86.116 67.901 28.943 9.000 1.605 0 0 2.423 5.700

TOTAL

3.678.000

11.274

3.666.726

12,4

453.073

0,0 0,0 69,7 67,3 68,2 90,4 95,2 57,1 79,0 90,0 65,0 0,0 0,0 70,0 53,3 78,9

215.190 177.931 457.393 1.148.262 819.795 387.722 228.646 81.000 10.433 16.958 30.400

3.573.730

SUNFLOWER
The harvest of sunflower has reflected a weekly progress rate of 11.7%. With the collection process almost fully developed in the provinces of Buenos Aires and La Pampa, which concentrates over 60 % of the sunflower area nationwide, the productivity levels obtained so far are mostly above the expected yields. This is due to the fact that the crop has evolved through the flowering and grain filling stages with good hydric supply, besides a few days of good radiation and a significant temperature amplitude. As a consequence of these good productivities, we have increased our estimation for the ongoing cycle by 100,000 tons. Therefore, the expected volume upon harvest amounts to 3,300,000 tons nationwide, ranking 8.3 % below the volume obtained during the previous season (cycle 2011/12; 3.6 MTN). Up to date, 55.8 % of the suitable area has been collected, with an average yield of 1.87 tons/Ha, accruing a volume of 1.78 M TN after the harvest of 950 thousand hectares. Finally, in the southeast of Buenos Aires the harvest was delayed by the rains of last weekend. Nevertheless, a quarter of the suitable surface was collected with very good yields. There were specific readings of productivity: A.G. Chaves 2.2 Tn/Ha, San Cayetano 2.3 Tn/Ha, Balcarce 2.5-2.8 Tn/Ha, Necochea 2.5 Tn/Ha, Lobera 2.0 Tn/Ha, and Tres Arroyos 2.5 Tn/Ha, among other.

SUNFLOWER HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON As of: Mar. 14, 2013
Hectareage (Ha) Percentage Hectares Yield Sown Lost Harvestable Harvested Harvested (qq/Ha) I NOA 370.000 24.000 346.000 100 346.000 16,5 II NEA 3.000 400 2.600 100 2.600 18,0 III Ctro N Cba 22.000 700 21.300 65 13.845 17,0 IV S Cba 195.000 7.500 187.500 100 187.500 19,0 V Ctro N SFe 7.500 120 7.380 100 7.380 26,0 VI Ncleo Norte 7.000 200 6.800 100 6.800 23,0 VII Ncleo Sur 9.500 700 8.800 71 6.248 15,0 VIII Ctro E ER 115.000 15.000 100.000 47 47.000 21,0 IX N LP-OBA 27.000 3.500 23.500 40 9.400 23,0 X Ctro BA 460.000 17.000 443.000 36 159.480 18,0 XI SO BA-S LP 475.000 18.500 456.500 25 114.125 24,0 XII SE BA 32.000 5.000 27.000 53 14.310 13,0 XIII SL 73.000 3.500 69.500 49 34.055 23,0 XIV Cuenca Sal XV Otras 4.000 250 3.750 53 1.988 15,0 1.800.000 96.370 1.703.630 55,8 950.731 18,7 TOTAL Zone Production (Tn) 570.900 4.680 23.537 356.250 19.188 15.640 9.372 98.700 21.620 287.064 273.900 18.603 78.327 2.981 1.780.761

GRAIN SORGHUM
The harvest of the cereal crop is moving slowly in the mid-east of Entre Ros, mid-north of Crdoba, and to a lesser degree in the north belt. These regions add to the mid-north of Santa Fe, where the harvest had started with anticipation. So far, 7 % of the suitable area has been collected, which represents an overall surface of more than 70 thousand hectares. This makes a volume accrued of 340 thousand tons, with a national average yield near to 4.7 Tn/Ha. On the other hand, it is important to mention that some areas such as Chaco and the north of Santa Fe have been chopped because they carried a very low and uneven yield projection. One of the threats apart from the weather is the birds, which affect the yield of the crop during the stages of grain filling and physiological maturity. The rains registered during March have improved the conditions of late sown plots. This cereal crop was in most of the productive areas the summer crop that best endured the lack of water during the dry period of late December and January. Therefore, as the harvest advances, the per-hectare productivity levels obtained allow us to sustain our estimation for the ongoing season in 5,400,000 tons. This number represents an increase of 32 % compared to the previous cycle, which finished at 4.1 M TN.

GRAIN SORGHUM
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Mar. 14, 2013

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras

Hectareage (Ha) Sown Lost Harvestable

Porcentage Hectares Harvested Harvested

Yield (qq/ha)

Production (Tn)

24.000 230.000 134.000 47.000 195.500 51.500 26.000 96.000 42.000 8.000 138.000 7.000 52.000 29.000 20.000

800 4.500 3.200 2.700 3.800 500 200 4.500 1.000 200 2.600 150 1.300 400 200

23.200 225.500 130.800 44.300 191.700 51.000 25.800 91.500 41.000 7.800 135.400 6.850 50.700 28.600 19.800

0 0 3 0 25 15 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 3.924 0 47.925 7.650 0 13.725 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0,0 0,0 60,0 0,0 45,0 50,0 0,0 48,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

0 0 23.544 0 215.663 38.250 0 65.880 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL

1.100.000

25.250

1.073.950

73.224

46,9

343.337

Buenos Aires, March 7, 2013

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange