WeeklyAgReport

BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE

WEEK ENDED ON Jan. 30, 2013

Referencias: NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero. NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa Ctro N Sfe: Centro-norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-norte de Crdoba Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros. Ncleo Sur: Sur de Santa Fe+Norte de Buenos Aires S Cba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+Oeste de Buenos Aires. Ctro E ER: Entre Rios excluda Victoria y Diamante Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires. SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa. SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires Otras: San Luis+Depresin del Salado+Corrientes+Misiones

WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE

January 30 2013

NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JANUARY 31 to FEBRUARY 6 2013: HOT WEATHER AND PRECIPITATIONS OF VARIED INTENSITY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURE DECREASE

OUTLOOK SUMMARY
At the start of the outlook, the northern winds that began to blow in the previous days will remain, maintaining the temperatures above normal levels over most of the agricultural area. During the first days of February a storm front will pass through, producing rains of varied intensity over most of the agricultural area: the west and center of the Argentine NW region will suffer very abundant precipitations (25 to more than 100 mm) with severe storm fronts, hail, strong winds and showers. Most of Paraguay, the east of the NW region, the west of Chaco, and the east and west of Cuyo will receive moderate precipitations (10 to 25 mm), with fronts of abundant rains (more than 25 mm); the north of Mesopotamia will suffer moderate to abundant precipitations (10 to 50 mm); the east and south of Santa Fe, Entre Ros, and the north and east of Buenos Aires will receive moderate rains (10 to 25 mm), with a front of abundant rains on the border common to the three provinces. The center and east of the Chaco region, the east of Cordoba, west of Santa Fe, Corrientes, most of Cuyo, a large portion of La Pampa, and most of Buenos Aires will register scarce precipitations (less than 10 mm) with moderate fronts (10 to 25 mm). The passing storm front will bring winds from the south which will cause a decrease in temperatures.

SOYBEAN
The seeding has covered 99.4 % of 19,700,000 hectares projected for the ongoing cycle. During the last seven days the weekly progress rate was 2%, and the YOY increase reported 0.9 %. The small remaining surface is concentrated entirely in the northern provinces comprised by the NW and NE regions, where the lack of rains is delaying the incorporation of those hectares. Over the central strip of our agricultural area, which is formed by the Mid-north and south of Cordoba, Mid-north of Santa Fe, the north and south belts, and the Mid-east of Entre Ros, a good number of plots are passing through critical stages of leaf differentiation or pod setting in good to regular hydric conditions. Hydric stress during the formation or pod setting stages fosters the abortion of these fruits, and consequently produce irreversible losses of harvest yield. For such reason it is important to have rains in the short term in order to arrest this gradual process of decay.

Finally the sanitary conditions of the plots is affected by a general attack of defoliating caterpillars. In some cases the isocas count exceeds significantly the damage threshold.

SOYBEAN PLANTING
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Jan. 30, 2013

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras

Hectareage (Ha) 2011/12 2012/13

Porcentage Planted(%)

Hectares Planted

TOTAL

1.260.000 1.360.000 1.930.000 2.010.000 2.330.000 2.500.000 1.400.000 1.440.000 1.116.000 1.150.000 3.410.000 3.400.000 2.670.000 2.680.000 1.140.000 1.200.000 1.550.000 1.360.000 565.000 418.000 328.000 415.000 740.000 1.337.000 137.000 155.000 222.000 215.000 52.000 60.000 18.850.000 19.700.000

96,0 96,5 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 99,4

1.305.600 1.939.650 2.500.000 1.440.000 1.150.000 3.400.000 2.680.000 1.200.000 1.360.000 418.000 415.000 1.337.000 155.000 215.000 60.000 19.575.250

CORN
Nearing the end of the seeding, and having started the harvest of the first plots of corn for commercialization, the hydric condition in most of the agricultural area is not improving. New rainfalls are necessary to recover the moisture in the first inches of the plots and not to lose the good conditions of first seeding corn plots. So far, 98.7% HA have been seeded out of a surface projected in 3,400,000HA for the ongoing cycle. In total, more than 3.35 million hectares were planted. The weekly progress rate is 2.3 percentage points, and the YOY advance is 2 points. The first early plots have started the harvest in the NW region, the mid-north of Santa Fe, mid-east of Entre Ros and the north belt region. The average yields are around 7 TN/HA. On the other hand, in the mid-north and south of Cordoba, the north and south belt regions, as well as in the mid-east of Entre Ros, the corn plots seeded in september which are now at the grain filling stage, have started to yellow their basal leaves due to the lack of moisture on the plot. Although the ears are mostly well grained, the extended lack of rains and high temperatures might produce a smaller filling of grains and therefore a lower weight. Consequently the processes will be accelerated and the crop cycles shortened. Health wise, we will mention again the armyworm attacks, as well as the presence of stem borers though in a smaller amount. Fungal diseases such as blight and smut have been mostly controlled by the agent applications made by producers, aided by the weather conditions (dry weather and high temperatures), which impede their proliferation.

CORN PLANTING
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Jan. 30, 2013

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras

Hectareage (Ha) 2011/12 2012/13

Percentage Planted (%)

Hectares Planted

255.000 270.000 475.000 500.000 160.000 527.000 460.000 165.000 535.000 136.000 107.000 85.000 115.000 60.000 20.000

255.000 256.500 427.500 415.000 147.000 432.000 363.000 151.000 454.000 122.000 107.000 89.000 105.000 57.000 19.000

91,8 93,0 99,2 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 97,0

233.963 238.545 424.080 415.000 147.000 432.000 363.000 151.000 454.000 122.000 107.000 89.000 105.000 57.000 18.430

TOTAL

3.870.000 3.400.000

98,7

3.357.018

SUNFLOWER
After finishing the collection on the NE area, the harvest of sunflower reports a progress level over 30% nationwide. In total, the surface collected exceeds 530 thousand hectares, with a weekly increase of 4.2%, and keeping a YOY advance of 8.1 % this week. The harvest has finished in the provinces of Chaco, Formosa and the east of Santiago del Estero. Specifically on the latter sub-region, the seeding of sunflower has grown significantly in comparison to the previous cycle, contributing good yields as well as surface. The average yield finished at 1.65 TN/HA. In another sunflower belt such as the Mid-north of Santa Fe, the collection work is reaching the end, reporting a progress rate of 94% and yielding an average of 1.9 TN/HA. The harvest will finish during the following week if the weather is favorable. The plots in the south of Cordoba are finishing the grain filling stage in very good conditions, so the yield expectations are high. Towards the province of San Luis, the bulk of the plots are at full grain filling stage, and the harvest yield expected is very good thanks to the good weather conditions during the cycle. Finally, the yields registered during the last few weeks in the north of the agricultural area, in addition to the analysis carried out on the rest of the productive belts, lead us to maintain our production estimation at 3,200,000 tons.

SUNFLOWER HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON As of: Jan. 30, 2013
Hectareage (Ha) Percentage Hectares Yield Zone Sown Lost Harvestable Harvested Harvested (qq/ha) I NOA 370.000 15.000 355.000 100 355.000 16,5 II NEA 3.000 100 2.900 19 551 17,0 III Ctro N Cba 22.000 0 22.000 0 0 0,0 IV S Cba 195.000 4.000 191.000 94 179.540 19,0 V Ctro N SFe 7.500 120 7.380 14 1.033 22,5 VI Ncleo Norte 7.000 0 7.000 0 0 0,0 VII Ncleo Sur 9.500 0 9.500 0 0 0,0 VIII Ctro E ER 115.000 0 115.000 0 0 0,0 IX N LP-OBA 27.000 0 27.000 0 0 0,0 X Ctro BA 460.000 0 460.000 0 0 0,0 XI SO BA-S LP 475.000 0 475.000 0 0 0,0 XII SE BA 32.000 0 32.000 0 0 0,0 XIII SL 73.000 0 73.000 0 0 0,0 XIV Cuenca Sal XV Otras 4.000 0 4.000 0 0 0,0 TOTAL 1.800.000 19.220 1.780.780 30,1 536.124 17,3 Production (Tn) 585.750 937 0 341.126 2.325 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 930.137

GRAIN SORGHUM
The north of the agricultural area is nearing the end of the seeding work; the progress rate reports a 96.3% of an area projected in 1,100,000 HAS. In the regions which are still pending incorporation, namely the NW and NE regions, the lack of moisture in the first inches of the plots are hampering the covering fieldwork. Specifically in Chaco and Santiago, producers are expecting new rainfalls to recover the humidity of the soil, since they intend to seed the cereal crop right after the harvested sunflower. On the other hand we may point out that in the mid-north of Santa Fe, mid-east of Entre Ros, and mid-north of Crdoba, the lack of precipitations during a long period is starting to affect the early seeded sorghum plots. It is also relevant to mention that there are cases of armyworm attacks, which affect significantly the crop plots in full development.

GRAIN SORGHUM PLANTING

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL C SAL Otras

Porcentage
80,0 85,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 95,0

Hectares Planted
19.200 195.500 134.000 47.000 195.500 51.500 26.000 96.000 42.000 8.000 138.000 7.000 52.000 29.000 19.000

2010/11 2011/12 Planted (%)

TOTAL
Buenos Aires, January 30, 2013

1.100.387 1.100.000

96,3

1.059.700

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange