DAILY I FOREX REPORT
30TH JANUARY 2013
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HEADLINES
Forex News: Euro Declines Despite Improved German Consumer Confidence FOREX: New Zealand Unemployment And CPI Could Make Rate Hike Unlikely Forex Analysis: US Dollar Chart Setup Warns Of A Turn Lower
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3425 tgs 1.3410/1.3395 sl 1.3445
Forex: EURUSD - Trading the Advance 4Q U.S. GDP Report
The advanced GDP report is expected to show the worlds largest economy expanding at an annual rate of 1.1% in the fourth-quarter, and the slower rate of growth may dampen the appeal of the U.S. dollar as it fuels bets for additional monetary support. However, as a growing number of Fed officials highlight a more broad-based recovery, a positive development may spark a short-term rally in the reserve currency, and we may see the central bank scale back its willingness to expand the balance sheet further as the outlook for growth and inflation picks up.
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SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5690 tgt 1.5675/1.5660 SL 1.5710
SELL EURGBP BELOW .8545 tgt .8530/.8515 SL .8565
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HOURLYEURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3447 HIGH: 1.3461 LOW: 1.3428 CLOSE: 1.3445
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>. -0005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45.06(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 90.44 HIGH: 91.02 LOW: 90.43 CLOSE: 90.66
USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => 0000( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>46(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5697 HIGH: 1.5715 LOW: 1.5692 CLOSE: 1.5716
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8567 HIGH: 0.8570 LOW: 0.8547 CLOSE: 0.8561
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.-0022(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>49(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 79.7860 HIGH: 80.8490 LOW: 79.7500 CLOSE: 79.8000
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date
Sun Jan 27
Time
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
Notes
01:30
CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (DEC) NZD Performance Services Index (DEC) JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (DEC) CNY Leading Index (DEC)
Medium
5.3%
3.0%
21:30
Low
51.5
54.2
23:50
Mon Jan 28
Low
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
Medium
100.21
00:01
GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JAN) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (DEC) USD Durable Goods Orders (DEC) USD Durables Ex Transportation (DEC) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (DEC) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (DEC) USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (DEC) USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (DEC) USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JAN) NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (DEC) NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (DEC) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (DEC) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (DEC) AUD Conference Board Leading Index (NOV) AUD NAB Business Conditions (DEC) AUD NAB Business Confidence (DEC)
Low
0.0%
-0.1%
00:01
Low
-0.3%
-0.3%
09:00
Low
3.7%
3.8%
3.4%
09:00
Low
3.3%
3.9%
3.8%
13:30
High
2.0%
0.8%
13:30
Medium
0.8%
1.6%
13:30
Low
-1.0%
2.6%
13:30
Low
0.5%
2.0%
15:00
Low
0.1%
1.7%
15:00
Medium
12.5%
8.9%
15:30
Low
3.0
6.8
21:45
Medium
-105M
-700M
21:45
Medium
-1870B
-1457B
21:45
Low
3.98B
3.81B
21:45
Low
4.13B
4.51B
23:00
Tue Jan 29
Medium
0.2%
00:30
Low
-5
00:30
Medium
-9
05:00
JPY Small Business Confidence (JAN) EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (DEC) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (FEB) EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (DEC) USD S&P/CS 20 City (MoM) s.a. (NOV) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (NOV) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (NOV) USD Consumer Confidence (JAN) NZD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC) JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (DEC) JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (DEC) JPY Large Retailers' Sales (DEC) AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (DEC) CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (DEC) CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JAN) GBP Net Consumer Credit (DEC) GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC) GBP Mortgage Approvals (DEC) GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (DEC) GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC) GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (DEC) EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate
Medium
43.8
07:00
Low
-0.1%
0.0%
07:00
Medium
5.7
5.6
07:00
Low
0.9%
1.1%
14:00
Low
0.7%
0.7%
14:00
Low
5.6%
4.3%
14:00
Low
146.08
15:00
High
64
65.1
21:45
Low
6.0%
-5.4%
23:50
Low
0.4%
0.0%
23:50
Medium
0.3%
1.3%
23:50
Wed Jan 30
Medium
-1.0%
0.9%
00:00
Low
-3.5%
07:00
Medium
1.23
08:00
Medium
1.2
1.28
09:30
Medium
0.2B
0.1B
09:30
Medium
0.6B
-0.2B
09:30
Medium
54.5K
54.0K
09:30
Low
-0.2%
09:30
Low
-2.8%
09:30
Low
4.3%
10:00
Low
88.2
87
10:00
Low
-1
-1.12
Indicator (JAN) 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JAN F) EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JAN) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JAN 25) USD ADP Employment Change (JAN) USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (4Q A) USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (4Q A) USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (4Q A) USD Personal Consumption (4Q A) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 25) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JAN 25) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JAN 25) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JAN 25) USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (JAN 30) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JAN 31) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JAN 25) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JAN 25) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JAN 25) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JAN 25) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (DEC)
Low
-13.5
-14.4
10:00
Medium
-23.9
-23.9
10:00
Low
-9
-9.8
12:00
Low
7.0%
13:15
Medium
163K
215K
13:30
High
1.2%
3.1%
13:30
High
1.5%
2.7%
13:30
Medium
1.0%
1.1%
13:30
Medium
1.8%
1.6%
15:30
Low
2813K
15:30
Low
-471K
15:30
Low
-1738K
15:30
Low
508K
19:15
High
0.25%
20:00
High
2.50%
2.50%
23:50
Low
-35.2B
23:50
Low
-235.3B
23:50
Low
485.7B
23:50
Low
196.2B
23:50
Low
0.4%
23:50
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC P) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC P) AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC) JPY Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi Speaks
Low
4.1%
-1.4%
23:50
Thu Jan 31
Medium
-5.6%
-5.5%
00:00
Medium
4.7%
Medium
00:01
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN) AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC) AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC) AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (4Q) AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (4Q) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (DEC) NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC) JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (DEC) JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (DEC) JPY Annualized Housing Starts (DEC) JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (DEC) GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN) GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC) EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC) EUR German Unemployment Change (JAN) EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-28
-29
00:30
Low
0.2%
0.0%
00:30
Medium
3.4%
3.5%
00:30
Low
-1.5%
-6.4%
00:30
Low
0.4%
-2.4%
01:30
Medium
-1.1%
02:00
Low
5.0%
04:00
Low
-8.4%
05:00
Medium
13.5%
10.3%
05:00
Medium
0.895M
0.907M
05:00
Low
-2.1%
07:00
Low
0.2%
-0.1%
07:00
Medium
-0.5%
-1.0%
07:00
Low
-0.1%
1.2%
07:00
Medium
-1.3%
-0.9%
08:55
High
8K
3K
08:55
Medium
6.9%
6.9%
10:00
Medium
2.2%
12:30
USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JAN) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (JAN P) CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (NOV) CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (NOV) USD Employment Cost Index (4Q) USD Personal Income (DEC) USD Personal Spending (DEC) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (DEC) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (DEC) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (DEC) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (DEC) USD Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 27) USD Continuing Claims (JAN 20) CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (DEC) CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (DEC) USD NAPM-Milwaukee (JAN) USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JAN)
Low
-22.1%
13:00
Medium
-0.5%
0.9%
13:00
High
2.0%
2.1%
13:00
Medium
-0.5%
0.9%
13:00
High
2.0%
2.0%
13:30
Medium
0.2%
0.1%
13:30
High
1.1%
13:30
Low
0.5%
0.4%
13:30
Medium
0.8%
0.6%
13:30
Medium
0.3%
0.4%
13:30
Low
0.0%
-0.2%
13:30
Low
1.4%
1.4%
13:30
Low
0.1%
0.0%
13:30
Low
1.5%
1.5%
13:30
Medium
355K
330K
13:30
Low
3157K
13:30
Low
0.0%
-0.3%
13:30
Low
0.8%
-1.9%
14:00
Low
14:45
Low
51
51.6
15:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JAN 25) NZD Net Migration s.a. (DEC) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JAN) AUD RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (JAN) JPY Jobless Rate (DEC) JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (DEC) JPY Household Spending (YoY) (DEC) JPY Official Reserve Assets (JAN)
Low
-172
21:45
Low
590
22:30
Medium
44.3
23:00
Low
-0.30%
23:30
Medium
4.10%
4.1%
23:30
Low
0.8
0.8
23:30
Fri Feb 1
Medium
-0.2%
0.2%
Low
$1268.1B
00:30
AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (4Q) AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (4Q) CNY Manufacturing PMI (JAN) CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (JAN) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JAN) AUD RBA Commodity Price Index (JAN) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JAN) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JAN) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JAN F) EUR Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (DEC P) GBP Purchasing Manager Index
Medium
0.3%
0.6%
00:30
Medium
1.2%
1.1%
01:00
Medium
51
50.6
01:45
Medium
52
51.5
05:00
Low
-3.4%
05:30
Low
89.2
05:30
Low
-8.0%
08:30
Medium
50.4
49.5
08:45
Low
47.6
46.7
08:50
Low
42.9
42.9
08:55
Medium
48.8
48.8
09:00
Medium
47.5
47.5
09:00
Low
11.3%
11.1%
09:30
Medium
51
51.4
Manufacturing (JAN) 10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (DEC) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JAN) USD Change in Private Payrolls (JAN) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JAN) USD Unemployment Rate (JAN) USD Average Hourly Earning (MoM) All Employees (JAN) USD Average Hourly Earning (YoY) All Employees (JAN) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JAN) USD Change in Household Employment (JAN) USD Underemployment Rate (U6) (JAN) USD Markit US PMI Final (JAN) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JAN F) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (DEC) USD ISM Manufacturing (JAN) USD ISM Prices Paid (JAN) USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JAN) USD Total Vehicle Sales (JAN)
Medium
11.9%
11.8%
13:30
High
155K
155K
13:30
Medium
162K
168K
13:30
Low
10K
25K
13:30
High
7.8%
7.8%
13:30
Medium
0.2%
0.3%
13:30
Medium
2.1%
2.1%
13:30
Low
34.5
34.5
13:30
Medium
28
13:30
Medium
14.4%
13:58
Low
14:55
Medium
71.3
71.3
15:00
Medium
0.5%
-0.3%
15:00
High
50.5
50.7
15:00
Medium
56
55.5
22:00
Low
12.00M
11.97M
22:00
Low
15.20M
15.30M
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