WeeklyAgReport

BUENOS AIRES GRAIN E XCHANGE

WEEK ENDED ON DEC. 06, 2012

CROP REPORT - HIGHLIGHTS
Estimations and Agricultural Projections Department Buenos Aires Grain Exchange

Referencias: NOA: Salta+Tucumn+Jujuy+Catamarca+Oeste Sgo del Estero. NEA: Chaco+Este Sgo del Estero+Formosa Ctro N Sfe: Centro-norte de Santa Fe. Ctro N Cba: Centro-norte de Crdoba Ncleo Norte: Este de Crdoba+Centro-sur de Santa Fe+Sudoeste de Entre Ros. Ncleo Sur: Sur de Santa Fe+Norte de Buenos Aires S Cba. N LP-O BA: Norte de La Pampa+Oeste de Buenos Aires. Ctro E ER: Entre Rios excluda Victoria y Diamante Ctro BA: Centro de Buenos Aires. SO BA-S LP: Sudoeste de Buenos Aires+Sur de La Pampa. SE BA: Sudeste de Buenos Aires Otras: San Luis+Depresin del Salado+Corrientes+Misiones

WEEKLY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK BUENOS AIRES GRAINS EXCHANGE

December 6, 2012

OUTLOOK SUMMARY NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL WEATHER OUTLOOK: December 6 to 12, 2012: heat and precipitations of varying intensity with risk of severe storms.
At the beginning of the current perspective, a warm front will bring rainfalls of varying intensity over most of the agricultural area. There will be risk of severe storms and high temperatures over the north and east-center of its extention: Most of Paraguay, most of NOA, Mesopotamia, the Chaco region, northern Crdoba, most of Santa Fe, the northeast of Buenos Aires and most of Uruguay will observe abundant/ very abundant precipitations (25 to 75mm) with severe local storms, risk of hail, winds and torrential showers; central Crdoba, the southeast-end of Santa Fe and most of Buenos Aires will report moderate rainfalls (10 to 25mm), with severe local storms; the west of NOA, most of Cuyo, most of La Pampa, the west and southwest of Buenos Aires will observe moderate to scarce precipitations (10 to 25mm). Later, a Pampero front will clean the atmosphere and lead to a sharp drop in temperature in the south of the agricultural area of the Southern Cone, while the north will continue reporting high values leading to a new heat wave over most of the agricultural area.

Buenos Aires, December 06, 2012 Buenos Aires Grains Exchange

MALTING BARLEY
The rainfalls registered early this week over Buenos Aires and La Pampa have slowed down the harvest of the crop. Nevertheless, during the previous days the fieldwork gained momentum in the South of La Pampa, Southeast and Southwest of Buenos Aires. Regarding the current yield levels, there is a common denominator among all the areas: the yields obtained are short of the expected productivity prior to the harvest. It is important to point out that some areas such as the North and South Belts, Center and West of Buenos Aires, which contribute to 24 % of the national agricultural area, fell prey to fungal diseases and scarce solar radiation during the critical period, impacting severely on the productivity of the crop. The yield results dropped lower in these areas than in those where fungal diseases were timely controlled, such as the Southeast and Southwest of Buenos Aires, which accounts for 73 % of the national agricultural area.

In addition to low productivities obtained, the crops present a lower quality condition, such as low PH levels or the regular sizes in most of the cases reported in the central agricultural area. So far, 17.4 % of the suitable surface has been collected nationwide, yielding an average of 2.6 TN/ha. Overall, more than 260 thousand hectares were harvested, reporting a slight YOY delay of -1.6 percentage points, and a weekly progress rate of 10.4%. Bearing in mind the drops of yield in certain areas as compared to expectations, we will adjust our first productivity estimate at 9.9 %, expecting to reach a productivity level of 5,000,000 tons at the end of the cycle. If this volume is reached, it will be a 13.6 % in excess of the one obtained during the previous cycle (2011/12: 4.4 MTN).

MALTING BARLEY HARVEST

2012/13 Season
Hectereage (ha) Percentage Hectares Sown Lost Harvestable Harvested Harvested I NOA 700 250 450 100 450 II NEA 600 150 450 91 409,5 III Ctro N Cba 6.600 550 6.050 62 3751 IV S Cba 2.800 250 2.550 98 2499 V Ctro N Sfe 1.500 33.500 90 30150 VI Ncleo Norte 35.000 143.000 7.000 136.000 71 96560 VII Ncleo Sur 5.800 550 5.250 100 5250 VIII Ctro E ER 122.000 9.000 113.000 18 20340 IX N LP-O BA 79.000 8.500 70.500 15 10575 X Ctro BA 285.000 11.000 274.000 5 13700 XI SO BA-S LP 870.000 22.000 848.000 9 76320 XII SE BA 500 500 0 0 0 XIII SL 19.000 700 18.300 17 3111 XIV Cuenca Sal. XV Otras TOTAL 1.570.000 61.950 1.508.050 17,4 262.666 Zone As of: Dec. 06, 2012 Yield Production (qq/ha) (Tn) 18 810 21 860 22 8.252 25 6.248 26 78.390 22 212.432 21 11.025 26 52.884 24 25.380 25 34.250 32 244.224 0 0 28 8.711 26 682.655

SOYBEAN
The weekly seeding progress rate was of 8.7%, raising the national progress value to 53.9 % of the surface estimated at 19,700,000 hectares. Comparing to the previous cycle, the YOY delay is more significant, reaching now near to -15 %; this is due to the interruptions produced by the rainfalls that covered most of the region during the last few weeks. The seeding of first crop plots has started in the Northern provinces. The progress level is still low. The West margin of the central agricultural area has shown the fastest progress of plot incorporation. Precisely, the province of Cordoba reported a significant seeding advance both in first and second seeding plots. Along the East margin of the country, Santa Fe and Entre Rios have suffered heavy precipitations which interrupted the incorporation of plots, and therefore, are reporting a slower weekly seeding advance. However, over the South region of the agricultural area, the seeding work is concentrated in the West and Southeast of Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Conversely, the Southeast of Buenos Aires may significantly increase the area seeded with soybean during the ongoing season. In the region mentioned above, a great portion of the barley seeded surface might be reutilized for second seeding soybean, due to the optimal moisture conditions on the plots.

SOYBEAN PLANTING
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Dec. 06, 2012

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras

Hectareage (ha) 2011/12 2012/13

Porcentage Planted(%)

Hectares Planted

TOTAL

1.260.000 1.360.000 1.930.000 2.010.000 2.330.000 2.500.000 1.400.000 1.500.000 1.116.000 1.150.000 3.410.000 3.500.000 2.670.000 2.755.000 1.140.000 1.200.000 1.550.000 1.530.000 565.000 460.000 328.000 430.000 740.000 875.000 137.000 155.000 222.000 215.000 52.000 60.000 18.850.000 19.700.000

1,5 2,2 58,7 59,8 58,0 78,8 67,2 75,0 59,5 54,5 50,0 45,0 67,5 48,8 65,3 53,9

20.400 44.220 1.467.500 897.000 667.000 2.756.250 1.851.360 900.000 910.350 250.700 215.000 393.750 104.625 104.920 39.180 10.622.255

WHEAT
The harvest of the crop has collected 36.2 % of the suitable area, raising the national average yield to 1.8 TN/Ha, accumulating a partial volume of 2.3 million tons. The weekly progress rate is 10.5 %, maintaining a YOY delay of -3.3 % as compared to the same time in the previous season. In spite of good progress rates reported during the last seven days, the harvest has been interrupted repeatedly in most of the regions involved. This was a consequence of the abundant rainfalls registered over most of the national agricultural area. However, the national average yield continues to grow week by week, in addition to the significant productivity levels projected in the main wheat producing areas in the South of Buenos Aires. Consequently, we will maintain our national harvest final estimation at 10,120,000 tons. Nevertheless, the collection on the wheat areas will start in two weeks, and if such yield expectations are not met, we will adjust our current productivity projection.

WHEAT HARVEST
2012/13 SEASON
As of: Dec. 06, 2012

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Others

Hectareage (ha) Sown Lost Harvestable

Percentage harvested

Hectares harvested

Yeld (1) (qq/ha)

Production (Tm)

340.000 190.000 265.000 130.000 160.000 265.000 240.000 150.000 210.000 140.000 680.000 770.000 3.000 50.000 7.000

50.000 6.000 5.000 5.000 3.000 11.000 12.000 4.500 35.000 0 0 0 400 0 0

290.000 184.000 260.000 125.000 157.000 254.000 228.000 145.500 175.000 140.000 680.000 770.000 2.600 50.000 7.000 3.468.100

100 100 84 35 97 75 27 72 6 0 0 0 8 0 0

290.000 184.000 218.400 43.750 152.290 190.500 61.560 104.760 10.500 0 0 0 208 0 0

8 16 23 28 19 28 25 20 27 0 0 0 20 0 0 18,8

226.490 297.252 491.400 122.500 295.199 541.650 156.294 207.051 28.350 0 0 0 416 0 0 2.366.602

TOTAL

3.600.000 131.900

36,2 1.255.968

CORN
The covering of late or second seeding plots is moving slowly, as well as early seedings in the Northern provinces of Chaco and Santiago. The heavy rainfalls registered in the last few hours over most of the agricultural area are slowing down the seeding, and producers are now wondering whether to plant late corn plots or to turn to soybean. So far, 55.1% of the area estimated for the ongoing season at 3.4 million hectares has been covered. The weekly progress rate reported 2.7 %, and the YOY delay was of -14 points. Consequently, it is estimated that most of the 1.8 million hectares planted are concentrated in the areas of the North and South belts, West of Buenos Aires, South of Cordoba, and Mid-East of Entre Rios. The condition of the above crops is very good, since they havent suffered water limitations during their cycle. In the Main Corn-producing area, the early plots have started the reproductive stage in good-toexcellent conditions. Within this framework, we maintain the decrease in the seeding expectation at 12% vs. the 2011/12 season.

CORN PLANTING
2012/13 SEASON
As Of: Dec. 06, 2012
Hectareage (ha) 2011/12 2012/13 Percentage Planted (%) Hectares Planted

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL Cuenca Sal Otras

255.000 270.000 475.000 500.000 160.000 527.000 460.000 165.000 535.000 136.000 107.000 85.000 115.000 60.000 20.000

255.000 256.500 427.500 415.000 147.000 432.000 363.000 151.000 454.000 122.000 107.000 89.000 105.000 57.000 19.000

4,3 9,8 28,0 67,0 62,0 83,1 74,2 68,8 52,9 84,0 72,5 86,0 66,2 86,1 14,0

10.838 25.009 119.700 278.050 91.140 358.819 269.319 103.956 239.939 102.480 77.575 76.540 69.510 49.091 2.660

TOTAL

3.870.000 3.400.000

55,1

1.874.626

SUNFLOWER
The seeding of sunflower has finished nationwide, covering an area of 1,800,000 hectares. It is relevant to mention that some plots are still to be incorporated in the Southeast of Buenos Aires, which will be seeded in the next few days. The fieldwork has progressed with good water supply in these regions, due to the precipitations accumulated during the previous weeks. In the Southeast of Buenos Aires the situation is quite similar: the plots are emerged uniformly, and a good percentage of them are between the V4 and V5 stages. The sunflower surface is relatively smaller in this area, compared to the previous season. Some specific plots were harvested In Chaco in the last few days, although the fieldwork was interrupted by the heavy rains accumulated in the province. The yields obtained so far report a significant variability, ranging from 1.0 TN/Ha to 2.5 TN/Ha. The yield expectation on the rest of the plots goes from good to very good.

SUNFLOWER PLANTING
2012/13 Season
As Of: Dec. 06, 2012

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV

Hectareage (he) 2011/12 -

Percentage Hectares planted -

2012/13 planted (%)

NOA 270.000 370.000 NEA 3.000 3.000 Ctro N Cba 22.500 22.000 S Cba 175.000 195.000 Ctro N SFe 7.500 7.500 Ncleo Norte 7.000 7.000 Ncleo Sur 10.000 9.500 Ctro E ER 185.000 115.000 N LP-OBA 46.000 27.000 Ctro BA 465.000 460.000 SO BA-S LP 550.000 475.000 SE BA 37.000 32.000 SL 78.000 73.000 Cuenca Sal Otras 4.000 4.000 1.860.000 1.800.000 TOTAL

100,0 370.000 100,0 3.000 100,0 22.000 100,0 195.000 100,0 7.500 100,0 7.000 100,0 9.500 100,0 115.000 100,0 27.000 100,0 460.000 100,0 475.000 100,0 32.000 100,0 73.000 100,0 4.000 100,0 1.800.000

GRAIN SORGHUM
Good moisture conditions in the fields have eased the seeding in the last fifteen days, producing an increase of 24 points, to cover nearly 55 % of the surface estimated at 1,100,000 HAS for the ongoing season. Although the YOY delay is still -16%, producers are slowly reaching the surface projected in their seeding plans. The greatest seeding progress was reported in the province of Cordoba, the Mid-North of Santa Fe, and the Mid-East of Entre Rios. The early seeded plots are now at the leaf differentiation stage in optimal conditions. Toward the North of the national agricultural area, especially the NE area, the seeding of the crop will be resumed after the rains of the last few hours. At the same time, this region is awaiting the harvest of Sunflower, since many producers are thinking of planting Sorghum afterwards.

GRAIN SORGHUM PLANTING

2011/12 SEASON
As Of: Dec. 06, 2011 Hectareage (he) Porcentage Hectares Planted
1.200 34.500 73.700 30.550 152.490 42.230 20.800 86.400 31.500 3.600 75.900 2.450 33.800 8.700 7.000

Zone
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV NOA NEA Ctro N Cba S Cba Ctro N SFe Ncleo Norte Ncleo Sur Ctro E ER N LP-OBA Ctro BA SO BA-S LP SE BA SL C SAL Otras

2010/11 2011/12 Planted (%)

22.572 216.281 129.960 42.408 195.552 51.546 24.067 120.059 45.936 8.894 134.992 6.435 52.326 28.500 20.859 24.000 230.000 134.000 47.000 195.500 51.500 26.000 96.000 42.000 8.000 138.000 7.000 52.000 29.000 20.000 5,0 15,0 55,0 65,0 78,0 82,0 80,0 90,0 75,0 45,0 55,0 35,0 65,0 30,0 35,0

TOTAL

1.100.387 1.100.000

55,0

604.820