PROBABILITY: The questions will involve concepts of combinations, permutations, expected value problems, tree diagrams, mutually exclusive,
complementary, independent and dependent events as applied to probability. This category will also include conditional probability and Binomial Theorem as applied to probability. The probability of something happening is the ratio of the number of ways that it can happen to the total number of possible outcomes. P(E) = n(E) n(E) is the number of ways that event E can happen n(O) n(O) is the total number of outcomes. Use the following information on counting principles in conjunction with the information just given to derive probabilities. Notation: n(A) means the number of items in set A n(A and then B) = n(A) * n(B). The number of outcomes from selecting something from one set and then one from another set is found by multiplying the sets (10 shirts and 4 skirts yields 40 outfits, no matter how ugly). You are actually choosing a pair of items. P(A and then B) = P(A) * P(B) n(A or B) = n(A) + n(B) n(overlapping elements). You are actually choosing just one item from an enlarged pool. P(A or B) = P(A) or P(B) An exclamation point is a factorial symbol where n! = n(n 1)(n 2)(n 3).....(3)(2)(1) Permutations are arrangements of items where order matters. To find the number of permutations of n n! things taken r at a time is found by calculating
n r
P =
(n r)!
Another method is to draw slots for the number of items to be chosen and write the number of possible outcomes for each slot (depending on the given information), and then multiply those values together. You will need to divide by 2! if you have 2 identical items, by 3! if you have 3 identical items, etc. Example: Find the number of different 4 letter license plates that can be created using the letters from SUSAN SMALL (without replacement). You need 4 slots with 10 options on the first slot for your first letter, 9 for the second since one of your choices is gone, 8 and then 7. However, you need to divide by 2! because the two As are identical, by 2! again for the 2 Ls, and by 3! for the 3 identical Ss. The reason that you divide by the factorials of the number of repeats is because that determines how many different ways those letters can be arranged. So... 10 9 8 7= 5040 5040 = 5040 = 5040 = 210 2!2!3! 2(2)(6) 24
Combinations are similar to permutations, but you are counting the number of groups where order doesnt matter. The neato formula for n items taken r at a time is nCr = n! . r!(n r)! The r! is to calculate the number of ways that the same group of items can be arranged. You need to divide to get rid of duplicate copies. Other notations for permutations and combinations involve parentheses. P(n, r) and C(n, r) are obvious.
n r is another way of writing nCr.
The Binomial Theorem is tied in with the formula for finding the number of combinations. The formula in the Binomial Theorem find the term containing br in the expansion of (a b)n. The term is n! * an-rbr The coefficient that magically appears in the course of expanding the expression can r!(n r)! also be found using Pascals triangle: 1 (a + b)0 1 1 (a + b)1 1 2 1 (a + b)2 1 3 3 1 (a + b)3 1 4 6 4 1 (a + b)4 1 5 10 10 5 1 (a + b)5 and so on. See the pattern? 1 6 15 20 15 6 1 (a + b)6 5 To find the expansion of (2x 3y) , first let a = 2x and b = -3y. Using Pascals triangle, the magic coefficients will be 1, 5, 10, 10, 5, and 1. So far, we have a5 + 5a4b + 10a3b2 + 10a2b3 + 5ab4 + b5 Now we need to substitute in the original values: (2x)5 + 5(2x)4(-3y) + 10(2x)3(-3y)2 + 10(2x)2(-3y)3 + 5(2x) (-3y)4 + (-3y)5 = 32x5 240x4y + 720x3y2 1080x2y3 + 810xy4 243y5 If you had been asked to find just the term containing x3, you could have used the Binomial Theorem. x3 is in the same term as y2, so youre looking for 5! * (2x)5-2(-3y)2 = 10*8x3*9y2 = 720x3y2 2!(5 2)!
**Arithmetic with Percents Keep in mind that when considering prices after discounts, work with the percent to be paid, rather than the percent knocked off. So, if youre dealing with a 30% sale, you pay 70%, so youd multiply by (0.7). If theres a 10% increase, thats 110%, so youd multiply by (1.1). In general, change the percent to a decimal and add it to 1 to get the amount to multiply by (a decreasing percentage is written as a negative value). The amount that you multiply by is often called the growth factor. If you need to find an original value thats undergone many percent changes, let a variable act as the unknown and multiply by the various growth factors and set that quantity equal to the resulting value. Example: If a sweater was marked down 20%, then marked up 30%, and finally marked down 10% resulting in a price tag of $50, find the original cost of the sweater. Let x = the original cost. x(.8)(1.3)(.9) = 50 .936x = 50 x = $53.42 If you are asked to find the percent change, you need to use the formula: new amt. original amt. * 100% original amt.