5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

[Link]

th

4 October 2012

Equities
Turnover Hits Billion
Despite the bourse hitting the 1Bn mark in turnover the NSE 20 Share index only gained 2.43 points to close at 3961.05. The
FTSE 15 and 25 indexes refelected the performance as well up 0.34% and 0.23% respectively while the NASI slipped 0.03%.
Foreign investors shifted to a long position resulting to a net inflow of Kes.39.3Mn remaining very dominant in the market at
86% of total turnover. Equity turnover ascended 41% to cross over the Kes.1Bn level, the second time this year buoyed by
increased interest from foreigners. Market capitalisation was largely flat at Kes.1.15Bn.
"We don't have to be smarter than the rest. We have to be more disciplined than the rest." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Index

Previous

Today

% change

87.11

87.08

-0.03%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd

5,362,300

NASI

Co-operative Bank (K) Ltd

3,973,900

NSE 20 Share

3958.62

3961.05

0.06%

East African Breweries Ltd

3,011,100

FTSE NSE 15

115.96

116.36

0.34%

Safaricom Ltd

1,647,900

118.72

118.99

0.23%

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

1,158,900

FTSE NSE 25
Source: NSE

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Crown Paints (K) Ltd

38.00

8.57

Kakuzi Ltd

72.00

2.86

TPS EA Ltd

39.50

2.60

Carbacid Investments

123.00

2.50

British American Inv.

6.30

2.44

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Longhorn Kenya Ltd

12.50

-5.66

Trans-Century Ltd

20.75

-3.49

Eveready EA Ltd

1.60

-3.03

Sameer Africa Ltd

3.75

-2.60

Total Kenya Ltd

15.45

-2.52

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 19/21 with 19 stocks advancing in price and 21
shedding prices.
Foreign investor participation ascended to 85.88% in todays
trading compared to 70.24% at the close of yesterdays session.
Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.39.3Mn
compared to a net outflow of Kes.5.3Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.
The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on East
African Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL)Kes.706.5Mn and Kenya
Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB)Kes.134.3Mn. The 2 counters
accounted for 82.36% and 95.90% of the total NSE and total
foreign activity respectively.
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd (NSE: KCB) recorded the highest
net inflow of Kes.12.8Mn.
The highest net outflow was recorded on Equity Bank
Ltd (NSE: EQTY) at Kes.1.1Mn.

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

3rd Oct 2012

4th Oct 2012

% Change

Market Cap. ([Link])

1152.40

1151.99

-0.04%

Equity T/O: ([Link])

720.25

1020.92

41.75%

29.76/70.24

14.12/85.88

N/A

20:17

19:21

N/A

3054.95

5643.05

84.72%

0.00

N/A

0.00%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: ([Link])

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

0.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
0.00%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

3rd October 2012

4th October 2012

Buys (Kes)

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

Sales (Kes)

250,332,185.00

255,629,627.50

457,990,205.00

418,725,457.50

Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

5,297,442.50

39,264,737.50

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Construction & Allied sector was up 1.57% to the top spot, boosted by the performances of Crown
Paints Kenya Ltd (NSE: BERG) +8.57% to VWAP 38.00. The total index performance depreciated 0.09%
on the back of seven segments posting losses.
The Investment sector occupied the bottom spot again losing 0.72% dragged down by Trans-Century
Ltd (NSE: TCL) which shed 3.49% to close at a VWAP of Kes.20.75.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Construction & Allied

1.57

Banking
Manufacturing & Allied

2
9

Insurance

0.71
0.18
-0.04

Agricultural

-0.15

Energy & Petroleum

10

-0.49

Telecommunication & Technology

-0.62

Automobiles & Accessories

-0.65

Commercial & Services

-0.70

Investment

-0.72

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

-0.09

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)
Price at
Recommendation
14.55

Company
Centum Investments Ltd

12 Month
Current Price
Target Price
19.55
11.90

Upside
Potential
39.13%

Return to
Date
-18.21%

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

23.00

-15.58%

45.57%

KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd

9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00

16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70

15.00
35.25
11.00
220.00
114.00
27.75
18.20
17.50
211.00

11.24%
22.53%
24.40%
-10.83%
7.62%
-2.40%
-5.51%
20.45%
-6.73%

53.06%
33.02%
-6.78%
41.03%
28.81%
50.00%
152.78%
10.41%
37.91%

4.00

6.25

6.30

-0.80%

57.50%

168.00
11.55
10.05
8.30
163.00
13.65
49.25

201.00
18.50
15.35
16.25
186.00
27.00
59.60

168.00
11.90
12.00
8.65
165.00
14.50
57.50

16.42%
35.68%
21.82%
46.77%
11.29%
46.30%
3.52%

0.00%
3.03%
19.40%
4.22%
1.23%
6.23%
16.75%
28.21%

British American Investments

Bamburi Cement Limited
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
KenGen Ltd
Jubilee Holdings Ltd
Housing Finance Ltd
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Recommendation

BUY
SELL
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD

Fixed Income:
Yields Uptick Sustained!
Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.5Bn in excess liquidity through
repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate slipped to 8.94%.
Primary Markets: The 91-Day T-Bill was up for auction today and as expected yields maintained their
upward trajectory. The regulator received bids worth Kes.2.5Bn against a target of Kes.4Bn accepting
bids worth Kes.2.03Bn. The Yield on the 91-Day T-Bill was up 34.6bps to 8.439%. The CBK will offer a 2Yr bond worth up to Kes.12Bn in the month with the deadline on 23rd October.
Secondary Markets: Bond deals were up to 116 as turnover shot up 84.72% to Kes.5.6Bn driven by
IFBs that transacted Kes.1.7Bn; 31% of the total Bond turnover.
Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor
91 Day
182 Day
1 Year
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year

Kenya
8.44%
10.19%
10.57%
11.11%
11.86%
12.71%

Uganda
9.67%
10.66%
10.69%
14.84%
15.39%
15.28%

Tanzania
12.45%
13.01%
13.76%
13.81%
14.49%
14.99%

U.S
0.10%
0.11%
0.18%
0.27%
0.68%
1.68%

LIBOR (USD)
0.41%
0.70%
1.03%
----

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
Rising Yields Support the KES
Performance: Maturities of previous liquidity mop ups depressed the KES as it was down
against all currencies but one in Table 8. The only gain was in the ZAR/KES pair up 0.855%, as
coal producers feared that the wave of illegal strikes might catch up with them. The largest
losses were 1.30% in the INR/KES pair and 0.72% against the EUR.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

3rd Oct 2012

84.90

4th Oct 2012

84.95

GBP/KES

136.60

137.04

EUR/KES

109.45

110.24

ZAR/KES

10.06

9.97

KES/UGX

30.14

30.07

KES/TZS

18.59

18.55

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.62
th

27 Jan 2012

1.64
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart exhibits the Psychological Line of the USDKES
pair over the past 3 years. The currency pair has enjoyed support from the regulator to keep
Estimatesit at below the 85 level on average.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

Large-Cap Index

The index advanced 0.16% while Market Capitalisation

was relatively flat a Kes.940Bn.
The best performing counter in this segment was
Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) up 2.22%.
Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was Athi
River Mining Ltd (NSE: CFC) shedding 2.22%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index gained 0.10% over yesterdays close as

Market Capitalisation was also flat at Kes.145Bn.
This sections best performer was TPS East Africa Ltd
(NSE: TPS) up 8.82%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Trans-Century Ltd
(NSE: TCL) down 4.04%.
Small-Cap Index
Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance descended 0.04% with market

capitalization stable at Kes.13Bn.
Gaining by the biggest margin was Crown Paints Ltd
(NSE: BERG) up 8.57%.
Losing by the biggest margin was Longhorn Kenya
Ltd (NSE: LKL) shedding 5.66%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

160,000,000,000

1,647,900

-1.23%

0.32

0.22

12.50

5.50%

790,774,356

185,831,973,660

3,011,100

-1.67%

13.46

8.75

17.46

3.72%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

85,163,871,460

378,700

2.22%

2.79

1.00

8.24

4.35%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

78,757,272,000

152,600

0.69%

1.49

1.50

9.73

10.34%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

60,977,158,200

108,500

0.60%

14.44

10.00

11.63

5.95%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

59,999,120,797

8,900

0.48%

19.75

11.00

10.58

5.26%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

41,559,201,810

3,973,900

1.28%

1.53

0.40

7.78

3.36%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

81,869,709,950

5,362,300

0.91%

3.72

1.85

7.46

6.67%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

19,015,826,594

211,200

0.58%

1.28

0.60

6.76

6.94%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

44,000,000,000

100

2.09%

30.98

30.50

14.20

6.93%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

33,152,018,692

4,800

0.00%

12.70

8.00

16.61

3.79%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

10,878,947,387

500

-0.63%

5.99

0.00

6.64

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

5,377,820,377

111,200

-0.85%

3.58

0.25

3.25

2.15%

1,530,000,000

9,486,000,000

1,158,900

-0.80%

1.32

0.50

4.70

8.06%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

18,586,230,312

102,700

0.00%

13.58

1.70

8.39

1.49%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

11,077,920,000

194,300

0.00%

2.16

0.45

8.10

2.57%

99,055,000

21,792,100,000

1,700

-2.22%

11.63

2.00

18.92

0.91%

358,997,784

12,654,671,886

28,600

1.44%

6.72

0.50

5.25

1.42%

940,179,843,125

16,457,900

0.16%

8.19

4.40

9.90

4.41%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,198,870,109

25,800

-0.83%

1.79

0.00

6.65

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

22,076,418,000

560,300

0.00%

2.21

1.00

6.79

6.67%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,375,374,860

6,800

-0.86%

2.55

0.70

22.55

1.22%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

5,012,000,000

5,362,300

-1.38%

3.19

0.40

5.61

2.23%

90,000,000

4,680,000,000

300

0.00%

6.24

0.50

8.33

0.96%

148,210,640

5,854,320,280

19,300

2.60%

4.51

1.30

8.76

3.29%

54,450,000

8,984,250,000

9,600

0.00%

33.00

4.50

5.00

2.73%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

7,200,000,000

93,500

0.00%

3.19

0.35

3.76

2.92%

Housing Finance [Link] Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,418,375,000

245,200

2.11%

2.70

1.20

5.37

8.28%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,704,193,508

1,200

-2.52%

3.05

0.00

5.07

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,179,572,595

400

2.50%

8.89

5.00

13.84

4.07%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,480,000,000

100

-1.36%

2.31

1.00

15.69

2.76%

[Link] Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,784,375,000

128,200

0.92%

1.15

1.00

9.57

9.09%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

998,804,621

165,600

0.00%

0.53

0.00

9.06

0.00%

74,059,026

1,758,901,868

2,900

0.00%

2.96

0.00

8.02

0.00%

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

2,150,000,000

13,545,000,000

97,600

2.44%

-1.09

0.15

-5.78

2.38%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

2,179,615,440

8,173,557,900

712,800

-1.32%

0.27

0.09

17.78

1.88%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,830,728,375

179,400

-0.27%

1.47

0.00

12.38

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

5,684,468,393

51,700

-3.49%

1.23

0.25

16.87

1.20%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,632,656,066

5,500

0.00%

1.84

0.00

3.83

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,622,638,250

30,300

-1.29%

1.72

1.00

6.69

8.70%

19,525,446

2,186,849,952

2,100

0.90%

7.71

6.80

14.53

6.07%

145,247,932,217

7,700,900

-0.10%

3.96

1.10

6.82

2.80%

[Link] Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,043,783,974

16,900

-2.60%

0.35

0.20

10.71

5.33%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,751,264,000

3,900

0.00%

93.74

57.50

2.13

28.75%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,411,199,928

200

2.86%

28.06

3.75

2.57

5.21%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

1,026,000,000

13,800

-1.72%

7.79

1.10

2.20

6.43%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

556,990,400

100

0.00%

7.78

0.55

3.21

2.20%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

927,433,694

5,200

1.66%

2.81

0.75

4.36

6.12%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

901,626,000

100

8.57%

5.44

1.25

6.99

3.29%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

336,000,000

19,800

-3.03%

-0.59

-2.71

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

900,396,000

400

-0.88%

1.36

1.25

41.18

2.23%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,976,268,330

25,800

0.00%

6.12

4.00

56.37

1.16%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS

58,500,000
3,912,000

775,125,000
489,000,000

500
900

-5.66%
0.00%

2.33
19.93

1.50
7.50

5.36
6.27

12.00%
6.00%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

139,844,971

1,100

-1.25%

-6.47

-0.61

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

142,000,000

5,400

1.43%

0.38

0.10

9.34

2.82%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

187,110,378

0.00%

-11.80

-1.10

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
13,142,647,047

0
94,100

0.00%
-0.04%

0.04
11.23

5.11

75.00
13.80

0.00%
4.89%

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: mwaireri@[Link]
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: ewanjiku@[Link]
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: akimani@[Link]
Carol Matu, Head Dealer | Tel: +254 20 2774789 | Email: cmatu@[Link]
Gachanja Weru, Fixed Income Dealer| Tel:+25420 2774756 | Email: gweru@[Link]
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: gguy@[Link]
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: nwaithaka@[Link]
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: amaina@[Link]
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334
7