Geo-Engineering Modeling Studies, Phil Rasch, Jack Chen, John Latham
Latham et al, Global Temperature Stabilization via Controlled Albedo Enhancement of Low-Level Maritime Clouds, 2008, special issue on geoengineering, Phil. Trans. A., Salter et al, Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming 2008, special issue on geoengineering, Phil. Trans. A.,
Thanks to A. Gettelman, H. Morrison
Model Setup
Community Atmosphere Model version 3.5+
Revised convection (Neale, Richter & Jochum 2008, Richter & Rasch 2007) Cloud microphysics tweaks,
Drop Activation tweaked between sfc and 850mb (assume perfect control of cloud drop nucleation) Morrison, Gettelman, Ghan (2007a, b; internally consistent 2 moment scheme predicting mass and number of cloud drops)
2x2.5o, 26 layers 2 Ocean Models
SOM/Thermodynamic Sea-Ice Model (ocean currents, and vertical mixing are prescribed, sea ice grows and decays solely based on ocean surface temperature) Full ocean model, Full Sea-Ice Model (ocean currents change, depth of mixing changes, ice dynamics much more realistic)
Cloud forcing as a function of areal extent (most susceptible clouds seeded first)
Optimizing cloud seeding
(Sampling over a 5 year simulation)
DJF JJA
Results are very preliminary! Proceed with caution
Changes in cloud drop number propagate
Changes to Liquid Water Path
SST cooling from geoengineering by boundary layer cloud seeding
Full Ocean Model
Slab Ocean Model
Decreasing Summer Sea Ice due to 2xCO2
Replenishment of Sea Ice due to Geoengineering
Precip Changes from 2xCO2
Precip Changes due to geoengineering
Changes in Cloud Cover
Summary
Aerosol cloud interactions are extremely complex (e.g. IPCC AR4) Nevertheless: The short lifetime of aerosols, the short response time of clouds to aerosol perturbations, the fact that the perturbation is to existing components of the natural system, the strong influence on climate, cost --> make cloud seeding interesting to consider as a means to geo-engineering Assuming that this model provides insight into forcing of the climate system:
Extra-tropical clouds might play a role in the geo-engineering Response will be non-local Feedbacks are very important Pristine clouds more susceptible --> Southern Hemisphere easier to brighten Changing CDNC at higher altitudes could also play a role in forcing Study suggests that seeding perhaps 25% of the globe would counteract much of the forcing associated with a doubling of CO2 --> quite strong local radiative forcing Response of coupled system important to explore (feedbacks, ocean circulations, ocean ecosystems, land/ocean precipitation redistribution, ?)
Next Steps
Global model
Extending simulations Ensembles
Smaller Scale Models
Large Eddy Simulations Cloud resolving models
Exploration of Practical Issues
Production of CCN Detection of effects How would one design a Field Experiment?
Extra Slides
Geoengineering by boundary layer cloud seeding
Deliberate introduction of CCN to enhance the Droplet Concentration in Low-level clouds increasing Cloud Albedo & Longevity - i.e. a cooling effect. This geo-engineering approach may be considered an analogue to Natural droplet creation at ocean surface Bubble-bursting, white-capping NaCl droplets effective CCN Ship tracks, fires, industrial pollution sources
(Idea based on: -Twomey (1977), Charlson et al. (1987), Wigley (1989), Slingo (1990))
CO2 doubling compensated by (Slingo, 1990):
120% increase in droplet concentrations 40% decrease in effective radius 12% increase in oceanic cloud cover
Follow up to studies of Latham, 1990, 2000, Bower et al., 2006
The cloud seeding paradigm
Natural sea salt is estimated to be ~10% of CCN over the ocean. If one increased sea salt mass but maintained the same naturally broad size distribution, then a 10x increase in seasalt particles might double CCN, but might also produce more giant nuclei, increasing precipitation, and decreasing cloud. Instead, assume is that the particle size distribution of a geoengineered aerosol could be optimized (e.g. monodisperse, initial droplet size of 0.8 micron) These CCN activate preferentially over naturally occurring aerosol. Doubling of droplet number N could be ensured by adding 2N seawater CCN.
Geoengineering and the Earth System Closing thoughts
If one thinks of an Earth System Model as a model that includes the physical, biological, and social components, then geoengineering provides a fascinating context in which to explore interactions between components. Even our crude initial exploration provides surprises and reminds us of how complex the system is. We are already engineering the planet, but doing it inadvertantly. Considering a deliberate engineering confronts us with all the same issues that we encounter in any climate change problem, ranging from the moral, and ethical to the scientific.
Raupach et al, 2007, Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions, PNAS
Preliminaries
Geoengineering:The intentional large-scale manipulation of the global environment. The term is usually been applied to proposals to manipulate the climate with the primary intention of reducing undesired climatic change caused by human influences.
Cloud Seeding feedbacks
Fixed SST Slab Ocean
Experimental setup
Simulations performed
Fixed aerosol and greenhouse forcing at present day values (Control) Doubled CO2 (2XCO2) Injection of SO2 at 25km, 10N - 10S Pinatubo thought to inject 10-30 Tg S (over a few days) 1 Tg S/yr assuming a small (or background) aerosol size distribution forms 2 Tg S/yr small particles 2 Tg S/yr as large (or volcanic) aerosol forms Doubled CO2 + the above permutations of emission amount and aerosol size
Annual Averages of Short Wave Cloud Forcing
Control SWCF
SWCF from increment ->375/cm3
SWCF from increment ->1000/cm3
Quotes from George Bernard Shaw (with tongue firmly in cheek)
"A reasonable man adapts himself to suit his environment. An unreasonable man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man "People are always blaming their circumstances for what they are. I don't believe in circumstances. The people who get on in this world are the people who get up and look for the circumstances they want, and if they can't find them, make them." "A life spent making mistakes is not only more honorable but more useful than a life spent doing nothing." It is dangerous to be sincere unless you are also stupid. Was GBS a geoengineer before his time?