INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Random Experiment

An experiment which gives different results even though it is repeated a large number of times under similar
conditions is called a Random Experiment.

For example: Tossing a coin, rolling a die, drawing a card from a pack of 52 playing cards, or selecting a sample
etc. are standard examples of a random experiment.

Properties of a Random Experiment:

1. The experiment can be repeated practically or theoretically any number of times.

2. The experiment always has two or more possible outcomes. An experiment that has only one possible outcome
is not a random experiment.

3. The outcome of each repetition is unpredictable, i.e., it has the same degree of uncertainty.

Structure of a Standard Pack of Playing Cards:

Let a pack of 52 cards consist of 4 distinct suits. The division is structured as follows:

52 Cards
/ \

26 Red Cards 26 Black Cards

13 Spades 13 Clubs 13 Diamonds 13 Hearts

Pictured Cards: There are 12 pictured (face) cards in total, consisting of the Jack, King, and Queen. Every such
card appears 4 times in the deck (one for each suit).

Sample Space

A set consisting of all possible outcomes that can result from a random experiment is defined to be a Sample
Space. It is denoted by the symbol S.

Each possible outcome (or member) of the sample space is called a sample point.

Examples of Sample Spaces:

• Tossing 1 Coin: S = {H, T} → Total outcomes: 21 = 2

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 • Tossing 2 Coins: S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} → Total outcomes: 22 = 4

• Tossing 3 Coins: S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} → Total outcomes: 23 = 8

• Tossing 4 Coins: Total outcomes: 24 = 16

• Rolling a Die: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} → Total outcomes: 61 = 6

• Rolling Two Dice: Total outcomes: 62 = 36 possible outcomes.

• Rolling Three Dice: Total outcomes: 63 = 216 possible outcomes.

Events

An Event is an individual outcome or any number of outcomes of a random experiment (i.e., a subset of the sample
space).

• Simple Event: An event that contains exactly one sample point is called a simple event.
Example: The occurrence of a 6 when rolling a single die is a simple event.

• Compound Event: An event that contains more than one sample point is called a compound event.
Example: When rolling two dice, the occurrence of a sum of 8 is a compound event: {(2,6), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3),
(6,2)}.

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot occur together, i.e., they have no intersection (A ∩ B =
∅).

Examples:

• When we toss a coin, either a head or a tail occurs, but both cannot occur together. Thus, getting a head and
getting a tail are mutually exclusive events.

• Similarly, when rolling a die, the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 are mutually exclusive.

• A student may be qualified or fail; these are mutually exclusive events.

Equally Likely Events

Two events are said to be equally likely if the chance of occurrence of one event is equal to the chance of
occurrence of the other event.

Examples:

• In tossing a fair coin, the chance of occurrence of a head is equal to the chance of occurrence of a tail.

• In rolling a fair die, the chance of occurrence of outcome 1 is equal to the chance of occurrence of 6 (and any
other face). This means 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are equally likely events.

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Collectively Exhaustive Events

When the union of mutually exclusive events makes up the whole sample space, they are called collectively
exhaustive events.

Examples:

• In tossing a coin, S = {H, T}. Let A = {H} and B = {T}. Events A and B are mutually exclusive, and A ∪ B = {H,
T} = S, which shows they are collectively exhaustive.

• Similarly, in rolling a die, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A = {1, 3, 5} (odd numbers) and B = {2, 4, 6} (even
numbers). Here, A ∪ B = S, making them collectively exhaustive.

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 Counting Principles: Permutations and Combinations

Combination: Used when selection order does not matter.

nC = n! / [ r!(n - r)! ]
r

Permutation: Used when arrangements/order matter.

nP = n! / (n - r)!
r

Example: 5P2 = 5! / 3! = 120 / 6 = 20

Definitions of Probability

1. The Classical or A Priori Definition

If a random experiment can produce n mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes, and if m out of these
outcomes are considered favorable to the occurrence of a certain event A, then the probability of A, denoted by
P(A), is defined as the ratio m/n:

P(A) = m / n = Number of Favorable Outcomes / Total Number of Possible Outcomes

Drawbacks of the Classical Definition:

1. This definition involves the term "equally likely", which itself means "equal probability", leading to circular
logic.

2. It is not applicable when the assumption of equally likely outcomes does not hold.

3. This definition becomes vague when the total number of outcomes is infinite.

2. The Relative Frequency or A Posteriori Definition

If a random experiment is repeated a large number of times, say n, under identical conditions, and if an event A is
observed to occur m times, then the probability of event A is defined as the limit of the relative frequency m/n as n
tends to infinity:

P(A) = lim(n → ∞) (m / n)

This definition assumes that as n increases indefinitely, the ratio stabilizes to a constant numerical value. It is also
called the statistical or empirical definition of probability and is highly suitable for practical, real-world
applications.

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3. The Axiomatic Definition of Probability

Let S be a sample space with sample points E1, E2, ..., En. To each sample point, we assign a real number denoted
as P(Ei), called the probability of Ei, which must satisfy the following basic axioms:

1. For any event Ei, 0 ≤ P(Ei) ≤ 1

2. P(S) = 1 (for a sure event)

3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

Subjective or Personalistic Probability

Subjective probability is a measure of the strength of a person's belief regarding the occurrence of an event A.
Probability in this sense is purely subjective and is based on whatever evidence is available to the individual. This
definition is flexible and can be applied to real-world situations where neither equally likely outcomes nor a
relative frequency approach is possible.

Disadvantage: Two or more persons faced with the exact same evidence may arrive at entirely different
probabilities.

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Exercise Problems & Examples

SET THEORY PRACTICE 1

Let A = {1, 2}, B = {2, 3}, and C = {3} be subsets of the universal set S = {1, 2, 3}. Determine the elements of
the following sets:

• (i) A × A

• (ii) A × B

• (iii) B × A

• (iv) (A × B) ∪ (B × C)

• (v) (A × B) ∩ (B × C)

SET OPERATIONS PRACTICE 2

Let A, B, and C be events (subsets) of a sample space S. List the members of the following events:

• (i) A ∩ B

• (ii) A ∪ B

• (iii) (A ∩ B)'

• (iv) A ∩ (B ∪ C)

SET OPERATIONS PRACTICE 3

If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}, and:

(i) A ∪ C (ii) A ∩ B (iii) C'

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CARD PROBABILITY EXAMPLE

If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, find the probability that:

• (i) The card is a red card.

• (ii) The card is a diamond.

• (iii) The card is a 10.

MARBLE PROBABILITY EXAMPLE

A marble is drawn from a box containing 10 red, 20 blue, 30 white, and 15 orange marbles. Find the
probability that it is:

• (i) Orange or red

• (ii) Not blue or red

• (iii) Not blue

• (iv) White

• (v) Red, white, or blue

DICE SUM PROBABILITY EXAMPLE

Show that in a single throw of two dice, the probability of throwing more than 7 is equal to that of throwing
less than 7, and hence find the probability of throwing exactly 7. State clearly what assumptions you are
making.

DICE AND SETS APPLICATION

Two good dice are thrown. Let 'A' be the event that the sum of the upper face numbers is odd, and 'B' be the
event that there is at least one ace (number 1) shown. Assuming a sample space of 36 points, list the sample
points which belong to the events A ∩ B, A ∪ B, and A ∩ B'. Find the probabilities of these events, assuming
equally likely events.

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