Probability Scales Simple Probability
A probability scale is a line from 0 to 1 that has the probability of
certain events marked. The probability is 1 if it’s certain and 0 if it’s The probability of an event happening is the number of possible
impossible. successes divided by the number of possible outcomes.
Example: The point marked × is the probability of rolling a 3 on a Example:
fair, six-sided dice. 1
The probability of a fair coin landing on heads is 2 .
2
× The probability of a fair, six-sided dice landing on a 4 or 5 is 6 .
0 1
Probability Revision Probability Revision
Venn Diagrams Venn Diagram Notation
ξ ξ
A B A B
A Venn diagram shows which things, called elements, belong in two
or more groups, called sets.
A∪B A∩B
Example: ξ = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
The union of A and B. The intersection of A and B.
A = even numbers ξ
A B ξ
B = prime numbers 4 3 A B
6 8 2 5
10 7
1 9
A′
Probability Revision Probability The complement of A. Revision
Two-Way Tables Combining Events
If we have two independent events, A and B;
Two-way tables show two categories and how a sample fits into The probability of A or B happening is P(A) + P(B).
these categories.
The probability of A and B happening is P(A) × P(B).
Example: The two-way table shows the meal choices of 50 people at
a 'Pie 'n' Peas' night. Someone is chosen at random to win a free pie. Example:
What is the probability this person chose Lamb and Mushy Peas? Find the probability of rolling a 2 or 5 on a fair, six-sided dice.
3 1 1 2
50 + =
6 6 6
Lamb Chicken Vegetable Total
Garden 8 13 1 22
Mushy 3 8 10 21 A fair, six-sided dice is rolled it twice. Find the probability of rolling
No Peas 1 2 4 7 two sixes.
Total 12 23 15 50 1 1 1
× =
6 6 36
Probability Revision Probability Revision
Sample Spaces Exhaustive Events
Two or more events are exhaustive if they cover every option. The
A sample space shows every possible outcome of two, combined
probabilities of exhaustive events add up to 1.
events.
Example: Draw a sample space
1 2 3 4 5 6
to show the possible outcomes Example: A bag contains only red, blue and yellow counters. The
when two fair, six-sided dice are 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 probabilities of getting a red or getting a yellow counter are shown
thrown and the numbers are added 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 below. Find the probability of getting a blue counter.
together. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
colour red blue yellow
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
probability 0.2 0.75
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 – (0.2 + 0.75) = 0.05
Probability Revision Probability Revision
Relative Frequency Dependent Events
Two events are dependent if one event happening changes the
Relative frequency is a way to estimate the probability of an event.
probability of the other event happening.
It’s also known as experimental probability because it’s based on
experiments. The accuracy of the relative frequency is better with Example: A bag contains 10
more trials. counters; 7 are black and the 6
black
number of successes rest are white. Two counters are 9
Relative frequency = number of trials 7
chosen at random. What is the black 10
3
probability the counters are the white 9
Example: A biased spinner is spun 100 times. The spinner lands same colour?
7 6 3 2 black 7
on 'red' 47 times. Estimate the probability it will land on red when P(BB) + P(WW) = 10 × 9 + 10 × 9 9
spun again. white 3
42 6 10
47 = 90 + 90 2
100 white 9
48
=
90
Probability Revision Probability Revision
Expected Outcomes Key Vocabulary
Biased: an experiment is biased if one outcome is more likely than
another.
The expected outcome is an estimate of how many times Dependent: two or more events are dependent if one event
something will happen based on the probability. happening changes the probability of the other event happening.
Exhaustive: two or more events are exhaustive if they cover every
Example: A fair, six-sided dice is rolled is thrown 300 times. possible outcome.
Estimate the number of times it will land on a 5 or 6. Fair: an experiment is fair if all outcomes are equally likely.
2
6
× 300 = 100 times Independent: two or more events are independent if one event
happening does not change the probability of the other event
happening.
Probability Revision Probability Revision
Frequency Tree Diagrams Independent Events
Two events are independent if one event happening does not change the
A frequency tree diagram is just another way to show two or more probability of the other event happening.
categories and how a sample fits into these categories. Example: A bag contains 10 counters; 7
are black and the rest are white. A counter
Example: The frequency German black 7
84 is chosen at random. The colour is noted 10
tree shows the favourite and it is returned to the bag. A second 7
147 black 10
languages of 300 year 9s and Year 9 counter is then chosen at random. What is 3
Spanish 63 white 10
year 10s. A person is chosen the probability the counters are the same
at random. What is the 300
German colour? 7
black
probability they are a year 9 71 10
7 7 3 3 white 3
Year 10 P(BB) + P(WW) = × + ×
that prefers Spanish? 153 10 10 10 10 10
49 9 3
63 = + white
Spanish 82 100 100 10
300
58
=
Probability Revision Probability 100 Revision