Learning Objectives

LO5-1 Define the terms probability, experiment, event, and

outcome
LO5-2 Assign probabilities using a classical, empirical, or
subjective approach
LO5-3 Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition
LO5-4 Calculate probabilities using the rules of
A Survey of Probability Concepts multiplication
LO5-5 Compute probabilities using a contingency table
LO5-6 Calculate probabilities using Bayes’ theorem
Chapter 5
LO5-7 Determine the number of outcomes using
principles of counting
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Probability Probability
EXPERIMENT A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only
one of several possible results.
PROBABILITY A value between 0 and 1 inclusive that represents the OUTCOME A particular result of an experiment.
likelihood a particular event happens.
EVENT A collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.

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Classical Probability Empirical Probability
 The classical definition of probability applies when there  The empirical definition occurs when the number of
are n equally likely outcomes to an experiment times an event happens is divided by the number of
outcomes
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY The probability of an event happening is the
fraction of the time similar events happened in the past.
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE The occurrence of one event means that
none of the other events can occur at the same time. LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS Over a large number of trials, the
empirical probability of an event will approach its true probability.
COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSTIVE At least one of the events must occur
when an experiment is conducted.

Number of successful flights

Probability of a successful flight 
Total number of flights
121
  0.98
123
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Subjective Probability Summary of Approaches to Probability

SUBJECTIVE CONCEPT OF PROBABILTIY The likelihood (probability)

of a particular event happening that is assigned by an individual based on
whatever information is available.

 Examples of subjective probability are

 Estimating the likelihood the New England Patriots will be
in the Super Bowl next year
 Estimating the likelihood the U.S. budget deficit will be
reduced by half in the next 10 years

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Rules of Addition Rules of Addition Example
 The rules of addition refer to the probability that any A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other
two or more events can occur vegetables. Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but because of
the variation in the size of the beans and other vegetables, a package
 The special rule of addition is used when the events are might be underweight or overweight. A check of 4,000 packages filled in
mutually exclusive the past month revealed:

SPECIAL RULE OF ADDITION P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

 What is the probability that a particular package will be

either underweight or overweight?
P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) = .025 + .075 = .10
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Complement Rule General Rule of Addition

 The complement rule is used to determine the  The general rule of addition is used when the events are
probability of an event happening by subtracting the not mutually exclusive
probability of an event not happening
GENERAL RULE OF ADDITION P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

COMPLEMENT RULE P(A) = 1 – P(~A)

JOINT PROBABILITY A probability that measures the likelihood two
or more events will happen concurrently.

 You can also use the complement rule

P(A or C) = P(~B) = 1 – P(B) = 1 - .900 = .10

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General Rule of Addition Example Special Rule of Multiplication
A sample of 200 tourists in Florida shows 120 went to Disney,  The rules of multiplication are applied when two or more
100 went to Busch Gardens, and 60 visited both. events occur simultaneously
 The special rule of multiplication refers to events that are
P(Disney) =120/200 = .60
P(Busch) =100/200 = .50
independent
P(Disney and Busch) = 60/200 = .30 INDEPENDENCE The occurrence of one event has no effect on the
probability of the occurrence of another event.

SPECIAL RULE OF MULTIPLICATON P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

A survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA) revealed

60% of its members made airline reservations last year. Two
P(Disney or Busch) = P(Disney) + P(Busch) – P (Disney and Busch) members are selected at random. What is the probability both
= .60 + .50 - .30 = .80 made airline reservations last year?
P(R1 and R2) = P(R1)P(R2) = (.60)(.60) = .36
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General Rule of Multiplication General Rule of Multiplication Example

 The general rule of multiplication refers to events that
are not independent A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these
 A conditional probability is the likelihood an event will shirts are white and the others are blue. He gets dressed in
the dark , so he just grabs a shirt and puts in on. He plays golf
happen, given that another event has already happened two days in a row and does not return the shirts to the
closet. What is the probability both shirts are white?
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY The probability of a particular event
occurring, given that another event has occurred.
P(W1 and W2) = P(W1)P(W2|W1) = ( )( = .55

 The conditional probability is represented a P(B|A) and is

read, the probability of B given A

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Contingency Tables Tree Diagrams
 A tree diagram is a visual that is helpful in organizing and
CONTINGENCY TABLE A table used to classify sample observations calculating probabilities for problems with several stages
according to two or more identifiable categories or classes.
 Each stage of the problem is represented by a branch of
One hundred fifty adults were asked their gender the tree
and the number of Facebook accounts they used.
The following table summarizes the results.  Label the branches with the probabilities
Age
Gender Less than 30 30 up to 60 60 or Older
Facebook Accounts Men Women Total
Movies per Month B1 B2 B3 Total
0 20 40 60
0 A1 15 50 10 75
1 40 30 70
1 or 2 A2 25 100 75 200
2 or more 10 10 20
3, 4, or 5 A3 55 60 60 175
Total 70 80 150
6 or more A4 5 15 30 50
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Tree Diagram Example Bayes’ Theorem

 Bayes’ Theorem is a method of revising a probability, given
that additional information is obtained
 For two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
events
New Tree Diagram Chart 5-2 goes
here

PRIOR PROBABILITY The initial probability based on the present level of

information.

POSTERIOR PROBABILITY A revised probability based on additional

information.

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Bayes’ Theorem Example Multiplication Formula
 The multiplication formula states that if there are n ways
of doing one thing, and m ways of doing another thing,
then there are m*n ways of doing both
Suppose 5% of the population of Umen have a disease and A1 represents the part of
the population that has the disease and A2 represents those who do not. Let B
denote a test result that shows the disease is present.

P(A1) = .05 Individual has the disease An automobile dealer wants to

P(A2) = .95 Individual does not have the disease advertise that for $29,999 you can buy
P(B|A1) = .90 Test shows the individual has the disease and is correct a convertible, a 2-door, or a 4-door
P(B|A2) = .15 Test incorrectly shows the individual has the disease model with your choice of either wire
wheel covers or solid wheel covers.
Randomly select an individual and perform the test. The test results indicate the How many different vehicles can the
disease is present. What is the probability the test is correct? Use Bayes’ theorem to dealer offer?
solve. Total possible = (m)(n)=(3)(2) = 6
| . . .
P(A1|B) = = = = .24
𝐵 𝐴1 | . . . . .

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The Permutation Formula The Combination Formula

 Another counting formula used to determine a total  Another counting formula useful in determining the total
number of outcomes number of outcomes
PERMUTATION Any arrangement of r objects selected from a single group  A combination is an arrangement where the order of the
of n possible objects. objects selected is not important

There are three electronic parts to be assembled, so n=3. Because all The Grand 16 movie theater uses teams of three employees to work the concession
three are to be inserted into the plug-in component, r=3. stand each evening. There are seven employees available to work. How many different
! ! ! teams can be scheduled?
3P3 =
!
=
!
=6
! ! !
7C3 = = = = 35
Label the parts A, B, and C ABC BAC CAB ACB BCA CBA ! ! ! ! ! !

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