Arab Spring
Questions:
1. Why did Arab Spring take place? Discuss the post-Arab Spring state of peace
and stability in the Middle Eastern countries. - 2021
2. What do you know about Arab Spring? Briefly discuss the post Arab Spring
impacts over Middle Eastern countries. - 2020
3. Briefly discuss the causes and effects of Arab Spring. Do you think that Arab
Spring has sparked a new dimension of terrorism in the Middle East? Explain
your position with adequate examples. - 2018
Introduction:
Twelve years ago, much of the Arab world erupted in jubilant revolt against the
dictatorial regimes whose corruption, cruelty and mismanagement had mired the
Middle East in poverty and backwardness for decades.
Twelve years on, the hopes awakened by the protests have vanished — but the
underlying conditions that drove the unrest are as acute as ever.
Marwan Bishara, senior political analyst of Al-Jazeera observes in his book “The
invisible Arab: The promise and peril of the Arab Revolutions.”
An oppressed people who have suffered passively suddenly decide that enough is
enough and thanks to western technology and inspiration, spontaneously rise up to
reclaim their freedom, inspiring what is called the Arab Spring.
The Arab Spring was a series of pro-democracy uprisings that enveloped several
largely Muslim countries, including Tunisia, Morocco, Syria, Libya, Egypt and
Bahrain. It ultimately resulted in regime changes in several countries.
Background
The Tunisian spark: The first demonstrations took place in central Tunisia in
December 2010, catalyzed by the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-
year-old street vendor protesting his treatment by local officials. A protest
movement, dubbed the “Jasmine Revolution” in the media, quickly spread through
the country. The Tunisian government attempted to end the unrest by using violence
against street demonstrations and by offering political and economic concessions.
However, protests soon overwhelmed the country’s security forces, compelling
President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali to step down and flee the country on January
14, 2011. In October 2011, Tunisians participated in a free election to choose
members of a council tasked with drafting a new constitution. A democratically
chosen president and prime minister took office in December 2011, and a new
constitution was promulgated in January 2014. In October–November 2019,
Tunisia became the first country of the Arab Spring protests to undergo a peaceful
transfer of power from one democratically elected government to another.
Why the name ‘Arab Spring’:
The name "Arab Spring” is a reference to the Revolutions of 1848—also known as
the “People’s Spring”—when political upheavals swept Europe. Ever since,
“spring” has been used to describe movements toward democracy like
Czechoslovakia’s 1968 “Prague Spring.” Western media began popularizing the
term “Arab Spring” in 2011.
Reasons behind Arab Spring
Political repression: Widespread political repression and authoritarian rule were key
catalysts for the Arab Spring. Citizens, long deprived of political freedoms,
demanded an end to oppressive regimes. In Tunisia, President Zine al-Abidine
Ben Ali ruled for 23 years with an iron fist. He cracked down on dissent and
imprisoned journalists and opposition figures. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak
ruled for 30 years. He rigged elections and used torture to silence his critics.
Economic Grievances: High levels of unemployment, economic inequality, and a
lack of opportunities fueled frustration among the populace. Economic grievances
were a driving force behind protests, with citizens demanding better economic
prospects and fair wealth distribution. For example, in Egypt, youth unemployment
was a significant concern, with approximately 25% of young people unemployed
before the Arab Spring.
Social media and connectivity: The rise of social media platforms played a crucial
role in organizing and amplifying dissent. Connectivity facilitated the rapid spread
of information, allowing protesters to coordinate actions and share their grievances
with a global audience. For example, activists in Egypt used Facebook, Twitter, and
other platforms to organize protests during the 2011 revolution, leading to a
widespread and coordinated movement. Social media penetration in Egypt
increased from 5% in 2010 to 31% in 2011, indicating the significant role of digital
platforms in mobilizing the population.
Youth bulge: A significant demographic of young, educated, and unemployed
individuals, known as the "youth bulge," played a crucial role in the Arab Spring.
These young people, facing a lack of opportunities and political voice, became a
potent force for change. In 2011, approximately 70% of Tunisia's population was
under the age of 30, highlighting the demographic significance of the youth bulge in
the uprising.
Arab Spring aftermath
While the uprising in Tunisia led to some improvements in the country from a
human-rights perspective, not all of the nations that witnessed such social and
political upheaval in the spring of 2011 changed for the better.
Tunisia: While the uprising in Tunisia led to some improvements in the country
from a human-rights perspective, not all of the nations that witnessed such social
and political upheaval in the spring of 2011 changed for the better.
Egypt: In Egypt, where early changes arising from the Arab Spring gave many hope
after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, authoritarian rule has apparently
returned. Following the controversial election of Mohamed Morsi in 2012, a coup
led by defense minister Abdel Fattah el-Sisi installed the latter as president in 2013,
and he remains in power today.
Libya: In Libya, meanwhile, authoritarian dictator Colonel Muammar Qaddafi
was overthrown in October 2011, during a violent civil war, he was tortured (literally
dragged through the streets) and executed by opposition fighters. Video footage of
his death was seen by millions online.
However, since Qaddafi’s downfall, Libya has remained in a state of civil war, and
two opposing governments effectively rule separate regions of the country. Libya’s
civilian population has suffered significantly during the years of political upheaval,
with violence in the streets and access to food, resources and healthcare services
severely limited.
This has contributed, in part, to the ongoing worldwide refugee crisis, which has
seen thousands flee Libya, most often by boat across the Mediterranean Sea, with
hopes of new opportunities in Europe.
Yemen: The ongoing civil war in Yemen can also be traced to the Arab Spring. The
country’s infrastructure has suffered significant damage, and the conflict has
devolved into tribal warfare.
Syria: Similarly, the civil war in Syria that began in the aftermath of the Arab Spring
lasted for several years, forcing many to leave the country to seek refuge in Turkey,
Greece and throughout Western Europe. For a time, the militant group ISIS had
declared a caliphate—a nation governed by Islamic law—in northeastern Syria.
The group executed thousands of people, and many others fled the region in fear of
their lives.
Yet, although ISIS has largely been defeated in Syria, the oppressive regime of long-
time dictator Bashar al Assad remains in power in the country.
Bahrain: In Bahrain, peaceful pro-democracy protests in the capital Manama in
2011 and 2012 were violently suppressed by the government of King Hamad bin Isa
Al Khalifa. Officially, the country has a constitutional monarchy form of
government, but personal freedoms remain limited.
Post Arab Spring impact on the Region
Regional power dynamics: The Arab Spring reshaped the geopolitical landscape in
the Middle East, leading to shifts in alliances and power dynamics among regional
players. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates strengthened their alliance
to counter perceived threats from political Islam, resulting in a more assertive role
in regional affairs. The Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen in 2015
showcased a more proactive regional approach, with Saudi Arabia leading a
coalition of Arab states against Houthi rebels.
Increased Iranian influence in some areas: The aftermath of the Arab Spring saw
an expansion of Iran's influence in certain countries, taking advantage of power
vacuums and sectarian divisions. In Iraq, Iran's influence increased, particularly
through Shiite militias, contributing to a shift in the country's political dynamics.
The number of Shiite militias in Iraq aligned with Iran increased from around 50
groups in 2011 to over 140 by 2017, indicating a rise in Iranian influence.
Political instability: Many countries affected by the Arab Spring experienced
prolonged political instability, characterized by frequent changes in leadership and
governance structures. Egypt underwent a series of political transitions, including
the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and subsequent shifts in leadership.
Egypt's Political Instability Index increased from 77.8 in 2010 to 112.5 in 2014,
highlighting the heightened instability during this period.
Humanitarian crises: Armed conflicts and political unrest stemming from the Arab
Spring contributed to severe humanitarian crises, including displacement, food
insecurity, and the breakdown of essential services. Syria faced one of the most
significant humanitarian crises, with millions of people internally displaced and
seeking refuge in neighboring countries. The number of internally displaced persons
in Syria reached approximately 6.2 million by 2013, indicating the scale of the
humanitarian crisis.
Sectarian tension: Sectarian divisions intensified in the post-Arab Spring era,
contributing to tensions and conflicts in countries with diverse religious
demographics. In Bahrain, protests led by the Shiite majority were met with
repression by the Sunni-led government, exacerbating sectarian divisions. Bahrain's
Shiite majority faced systematic discrimination, with reports of approximately 1,000
Shiite citizens dismissed from public-sector jobs in 2011 due to their participation
in protests.
Regional influence: The post-Arab Spring period saw increased competition for
regional influence among Middle Eastern countries, each vying for dominance in the
evolving geopolitical landscape. Turkey expanded its regional influence, positioning
itself as a supporter of political Islam and an advocate for democratic change in the
aftermath of the Arab Spring. Turkey's foreign aid increased from $1.1 billion in
2010 to $4.4 billion in 2013, reflecting a more assertive foreign policy during this
period.
Authoritarian resurgence: In some cases, the initial aspirations for democracy and
political reforms were replaced by a resurgence of authoritarianism, with leaders
consolidating power and suppressing dissent. Egypt's transition to democracy after
the Arab Spring was short-lived, with the military taking control and President Abdel
Fattah el-Sisi consolidating power. The number of political prisoners in Egypt
increased significantly after the 2013 coup, reaching an estimated 60,000 by 2016,
signaling a crackdown on dissent.
What did the Arab Spring accomplish?
“Arab Spring” was first used by American conservative commentators, but has since
been challenged as an inadequate misnomer. Since 2011, the goals of many Arab
Spring protesters have been denied as autocratic governments regain power and
crack down on civil liberties.
Nonetheless, the uprisings have shown the power of mass demonstrations and
peaceful protest, as well as the ability of social media to both fuel protest and
communicate its goals to the outside world. The tumult of the Arab Spring also
showed autocratic governments—and the rest of the world—that millions of people
living in Islamic nations believe in free expression and democratic governance.
“The debate about the relationship between Islam and democracy conclusively
ended with the coming of the Arab Spring,” said Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi
in a 2018 speech.
No Lasting Democratic Progress, Except in Tunisia:
Protesters were motivated by many factors, but analysts say a common theme was a
push for dignity and human rights. In many countries, religious tensions also played
a significant role. For instance, Islamist parties gained power in formerly secular
Tunisia and Egypt (although only temporarily in the latter). Meanwhile, deep
sectarian divisions helped give rise to the anti-government movements in Bahrain,
Syria, and Yemen. Only Tunisia made a lasting shift to democracy, whereas Egypt
backslid, and Libya, Syria, and Yemen spiraled into protracted civil wars.
Standard of Living Has Fallen in Libya, Syria, Yemen:
Many in the Mideast struggled financially due to declining oil prices, high
unemployment, and corruption among political elites who thrived at the expense of
ordinary citizens, among other reasons. Poverty rates were high, especially in rural
areas. In no country has the standard of living significantly improved since the
revolutions, and it has even declined in conflict-ravaged areas.
Youth Unemployment Remains High:
Many of the uprisings were led by students and other young people frustrated by
government corruption and the lack of economic opportunities. Youth
unemployment in the region remains the highest in the world and has worsened in
several countries, rekindling protests in some cases.
Jailing of Journalists Has Increased:
Press freedom in the region is worse today than in the years before the revolts. Many
governments have moved aggressively to suppress any criticism in the media, and
foreign and local journalists are more likely to be imprisoned, killed, or have their
work censored than their peers in most other regions of the world. Egypt has become
one of the world’s top jailers of journalists since President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi took
power in 2013.
Millions of People Displaced by Conflict:
Post-uprising civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen have caused mass displacement.
In many cases, foreign military interventions have exacerbated the violence and
disorder. Syria’s conflict alone has created more than five million registered refugees
and over six million internally displaced people.
Internet Freedom Mostly Stagnant or Declining:
The internet and social media were vital tools for mobilizing Arab Spring protesters
and documenting some government injustices. In the years since, countries such as
Egypt have tightened their grip on cyberspace by restricting internet access, enacting
laws that facilitate censorship, and jailing people over their anti-government posts
online. Only Tunisia has increased internet freedom, particularly by protecting free
expression and the press under its 2014 constitution.
Government Corruption Unchanged or Worsening:
Some countries, such as Tunisia, have attempted to respond to protesters’ calls for
better governance, including by creating anticorruption agencies and new laws to
protect whistleblowers. However, corruption persists and is worsening regionwide.
It is particularly daunting in the countries riven by civil war.
Women’s Representation Has Increased in Most Countries:
Gender equality was not a primary focus of the Arab Spring, but women took leading
roles in the protests despite the threat of gender-based violence. Over the last decade,
some countries have seen slight increases in female representation in government,
but generally the region has done little to improve the status of women. Still, in
countries including Egypt and Tunisia, women are speaking out more against
injustices they face.
13 years later: Arab Spring still echoes
Thirteen years after the mass popular uprising known as the Arab Spring began in
January of 2011, optimism can be hard to find. Despite the participation of thousands
of people — particularly young people — in protests against the autocratic rulers of
Middle Eastern countries, little seems to have changed.
Arab scholars and analysts on campus say closer examination reveals an ongoing
process — and a decade of change. “It’s like a chess game between governments
and the people,” said Hicham Alaoui, a Weatherhead Center for International
Affairs associate.
The initial Arab Spring was “like one giant Woodstock,” said Alaoui. “Joyful
anarchy empowered by internet connectivity.” That first burst of energy disrupted
the system, but it lacked structure — or plans for the future. In the power vacuum,
Islamists rose up, and the surviving autocrats clamped down, as in Egypt, where the
military repressed the Muslim Brotherhood. Since then, he said, “Everybody’s
doubled down.”
Another, less-visible change, Masoud said, is coming from within the establishment.
What matters to many is more basic, he said: prosperity, security, and political
accountability.
On the face of it, the Arab Spring failed, and spectacularly so — not only by failing
to deliver political freedom but by further entrenching the rule of corrupt leaders
more intent on their own survival than delivering reforms.
“It’s been a lost decade,” said Tarik Yousef, director of the Brookings Doha Center,
recalling the euphoria he initially felt when the fall of Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi in
August 2011 enabled him to return home for the first time in years. "Now, we have
the return of fear and intimidation. The region has experienced setbacks at every
turn.”
Pandemic: The double whammy of the coronavirus pandemic and lower oil prices
will only accelerate the economic regression across a region where many Arab
governments have relied on gulf aid and many citizens on work in gulf countries,
economists say.
Lebanon: In Lebanon, economic collapse and the trauma from last summer’s huge
explosion at Beirut’s port have muted the enthusiasm of those who initially took to
the streets. "They’re too broken to face what happened,” Lama Jamaleddine, a
student organizer, said as she surveyed the handful of people at a recent protest
commemorating victims of the explosion.
Syria: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has survived the popular uprising against
his rule, with Russian and Iranian support, and by bombarding towns and cities into
submission. However, Syrian president attends first Arab League summit since his
country’s suspension over crackdown on anti-government protests in 2011.
Conclusion
Cofman Wittes said “No one saw the Arab Spring coming,”. “Repressive states
always look stable, but when a government relies on coercion as a primary means of
survival, it’s inherently unstable.”
Further instability seems inevitable, said Fawaz Gerges, professor of international
relations at the London School of Economics. He believes the upheaval of the past
10 years represents the start of a long process of change that will eventually lead to
a transformation of the Middle East.
“The status quo is untenable, and the next explosion will be catastrophic," he
predicted. "We’re talking about starvation, we’re talking about state collapse, we’re
talking about civil strife.”