CHAPTER 4
PROBABILITY
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Opening Example
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EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE
Definition
An experiment is a process that, when
performed, results in one and only one of
many observations. These observations are
called that outcomes of the experiment.
The collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.
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Table 4.1 Examples of Experiments, Outcomes,
and Sample Spaces
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Example 4-1
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin once.
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Figure 4.1 (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram
for one toss of a coin.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-2
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin twice.
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Figure 4.2 (a) Venn diagram and (b) tree diagram
for two tosses of a coin.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-3
Suppose we randomly select two workers
from a company and observe whether the
worker selected each time is a man or a
woman. Write all the outcomes for this
experiment. Draw the Venn and tree
diagrams for this experiment.
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Figure 4.3 (a) Venn diagram and (b) tree diagram
for selecting two workers.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Simple and Compound Events
Definition
An event is a collection of one or more of
the outcomes of an experiment.
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Simple and Compound Events
Definition
An event that includes one and only one of
the (final) outcomes for an experiment is
called a simple event and is denoted by Ei.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-4
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers
from a company and observing whether the worker
selected each time is a man or a woman. Each of the
final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, and WW) for this
experiment is a simple event. These four events can
be denoted by E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus,
E1 = (MM), E2 = (MW), E3 = (WM), and E4 = (WW)
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Simple and Compound Events
Definition
A compound event is a collection of more
than one outcome for an experiment.
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Example 4-5
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers
from a company and observing whether the worker
selected each time is a man or a woman. Let A be
the event that at most one man is selected. Event
A will occur if either no man or one man is selected.
Hence, the event A is given by
A = {MW, WM, WW}
Because event A contains more than one outcome,
it is a compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure
4.4 gives a graphic presentation of compound event
A.
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Figure 4.4 Venn diagram for event A.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-6
In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic
engineering and others are against it. Two persons are
selected at random from this group and asked whether they
are in favor of or against genetic engineering. How many
distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a Venn diagram and a
tree diagram for this experiment. List all the outcomes
included in each of the following events and mention whether
they are simple or compound events.
(a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering.
(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-6: Solution
Let
F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
A = a person is against genetic engineering
FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering
FA = the first person is in favor and the second is
against
AF = the first is against and the second is in favor
AA = both persons are against genetic engineering
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure 4.5 Venn and tree diagrams.
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Example 4-6: Solution
a) Both persons are in favor of genetic engineering
= { FF }
Because this event includes only one of the final
four outcomes, it is a simple event.
b) At most one person is against genetic
engineering = { FF, FA, AF }
Because this event includes more than one
outcome, it is a compound event.
c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic
engineering = { FA, AF }
It is a compound event.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition
Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event will occur.
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Two Properties of Probability
The probability of an event always lies in the range 0 to 1.
The sum of the probabilities of all simple events (or final
outcomes) for an experiment, denoted by ΣP(Ei), is
always 1.
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Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability
Classical Probability
Definition
Two or more outcomes (or events) that
have the same probability of occurrence
are said to be equally likely outcomes
(or events).
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Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability
1
P( Ei )
Total number of outcomes for the experiment
Number of outcomes favorable to A
P( A)
Total number of outcomes for the experiment
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Example 4-7
Find the probability of obtaining a head and
the probability of obtaining a tail for one
toss of a coin.
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Example 4-7: Solution
1 1
P(head) .50
Total number of outcomes 2
Similarly,
1
P ( tail) .50
2
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-8
Find the probability of obtaining an even
number in one roll of a die.
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Example 4-8: Solution
A = {2, 4, 6}. If any one of these three
numbers is obtained, event A is said to occur.
Hence,
Number of outcomes included in A 3
P(head) .50
Total number of outcomes 6
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-9
In a group of 500 women, 120 have played
golf at least once. Suppose one of these 500
women is randomly selected. What is the
probability that she has played golf at least
once?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-9: Solution
One hundred twenty of these 500 outcomes are
included in the event that the selected woman
has played golf at least once. Hence,
120
P (selected woman has played golf at least once) .24
500
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Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability
Relative Frequency Concept of Probability
Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation of
Probability
If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event A is observed f times, then, according to
the relative frequency concept of probability,
f
P ( A)
n
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-10
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars
manufactured at a certain auto factory are
found to be lemons. Assuming that the
lemons are manufactured randomly, what is
the probability that the next car
manufactured at this auto factory is a
lemon?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-10: Solution
Let n denotes the total number of cars in the
sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10
Using the relative frequency concept of
probability, we obtain
f 10
P(next car is a lemon) .02
n 500
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Table 4.2 Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions for the Sample of Cars
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Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability
Subjective Probability
Definition
Subjective probability is the probability
assigned to an event based on subjective
judgment, experience, information and
belief.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Suppose all 100 employees of a company were
asked whether they are in favor of or against
paying high salaries to CEOs of U.S. companies.
Table 4.3 gives a two way classification of the
responses of these 100 employees.
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Table 4.3 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses
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Table 4.4 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses with Totals
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MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Definition
Marginal probability is the probability of a
single event without consideration of any
other event. Marginal probability is also
called simple probability.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Table 4.5 Listing the Marginal Probabilities
P (M ) = 60/100 = .60
P (F ) = 40/100 = .40
P (A ) = 19/100 P (B ) = 81/100
= .19 = .81
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
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MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Definition
Conditional probability is the probability that an
event will occur given that another has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the
conditional probability A given B is written as
P(A|B)
and read as “the probability of A given that B has
already occurred.”
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-15
Compute the conditional probability
P ( in favor | male) for the data on 100
employees given in Table 4.4.
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Example 4-15: Solution
Number of males who are in favor 15
P(in favor | male) .25
Total number of males 60
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Example 4-16
For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the
conditional probability that a randomly
selected employee is a female given that
this employee is in favor of paying high
salaries to CEOs.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-16: Solution
Number of females who are in favor
P(female | in favor)
Total number of employees who are in favor
4
.2105
19
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MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Definition
Events that cannot occur together are said
to be mutually exclusive events.
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Example 4-17
Consider the following events for one roll of a
die:
A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6}
B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5}
C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are
events A and C mutually exclusive?
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Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-17: Solution
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Example 4-18
Consider the following two events for a
randomly selected adult:
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at
least once
N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet
Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-18: Solution
As we can observe from the definitions of events Y and N
and from Figure 4.10, events Y and N have no common
outcome. Hence, these two events are mutually exclusive.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
INDEPENDENT VERSUS DEPENDENT EVENTS
Definition
Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other. In
other words, A and B are independent
events if
either P(A | B) = P(A) or P(B | A) = P(B)
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-19
Refer to the information on 100 employees
given in Table 4.4 in Section 4.4. Are
events “female (F)” and “in favor (A)”
independent?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-19: Solution
Events F and A will be independent if
P (F) = P (F | A)
Otherwise they will be dependent.
Using the information given in Table 4.4, compute
P (F) = 40/100 = .40 and
P (F | A) = 4/19 = .2105
Because these two probabilities are not equal, the
two events are dependent.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Definition
The complement of event A, denoted by Ā
and is read as “A bar” or “A complement,” is
the event that includes all the outcomes for
an experiment that are not in A.
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Figure 4.11 Venn diagram of two complementary
events.
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Example 4-21
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have
been audited by the IRS at least once. If one
taxpayer is randomly selected from this
group, what are the two complementary
events for this experiment, and what are
their probabilities?
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-21: Solution
The two complementary events for this experiment
are
A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the IRS at
least once
Ā = the selected taxpayer has never been audited by the
IRS
The probabilities of the complementary events are
P (A) = 400/2000 = .20 and
P (Ā) = 1600/2000 = .80
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Figure 4.12 Venn diagram.
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INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Intersection of Events
Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The intersection of A and B
represents the collection of all outcomes that
are common to both A and B and is denoted
by
A and B
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Figure 4.14 Intersection of events A and B.
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INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule
Definition
The probability of the intersection of two
events is called their joint probability. It is
written as
P(A and B)
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability
The probability of the intersection of two
events A and B is
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B |A)
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-23
Table 4.7 gives the classification of all employees of
a company given by gender and college degree.
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Example 4-23
If one of these employees is selected at
random for membership on the employee-
management committee, what is the
probability that this employee is a female
and a college graduate?
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Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-23: Solution
We are to calculate the probability of the
intersection of the events F and G.
P(F and G) = P(F) P(G |F)
P(F) = 13/40
P(G |F) = 4/13
P(F and G) = P(F) P(G |F)
= (13/40)(4/13) = .100
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Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Figure 4.15 Intersection of events F and G.
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INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Calculating Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events, then,
P( A and B) P( A and B)
P( B | A) and P( A | B)
P( A) P( B)
given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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Example 4-25
The probability that a randomly selected
student from a college is a senior is .20, and
the joint probability that the student is a
computer science major and a senior is .03.
Find the conditional probability that a
student selected at random is a computer
science major given that the student is a
senior.
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Example 4-25: Solution
Let us define the following two events:
A = the student selected is a senior
B = the student selected is a computer science major
From the given information,
P(A) = .20 and P(A and B) = .03
Hence,
P (B | A) = P(A and B)/P(A) = .03/.20 = .15
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E
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