CHAPTER 3: HAZARD, RISK AND VULNERABILITIES

Disaster Risk Management (CE 78506) | TU IOE | BCE IV/II | Exam Notes

1. INTRODUCTION — HAZARD, RISK AND VULNERABILITY

Hazard, risk, and vulnerability are three interrelated concepts that are at the heart of disaster risk
management. Understanding all three is essential for effective disaster preparedness, response, and
recovery.

Disaster = Natural Hazard × Vulnerability

Risk = (Hazard × Vulnerability) / Capacity (or Preparedness)

⭐ This formula appears in almost every exam! Always explain what each component
means after writing the formula.

2. HAZARD
2.1 Definition
A hazard is a source of potential harm or a situation with a potential to cause loss — of life, injury,
property damage, social and economic disruption, or environmental degradation. Hazards can be
natural (earthquakes, floods) or human-made (industrial accidents, terrorism).

2.2 Classification of Hazards

Type Sub-types Nepal Examples

Natural Hazard Geophysical, Hydrological, Earthquakes (Gorkha 2015), Floods
Meteorological, Climatological, (Koshi, 2008), Landslides, GLOFs,
Biological Droughts, Epidemics (COVID-19)
Technological Industrial, Transport, Structural Dam failure, Chemical spill, Building
Hazard collapse, Industrial explosion
Biological Epidemics, Pandemics, Pest COVID-19 pandemic, Swine flu, Bird flu,
Hazard infestations Locust attacks
Human- Conflict, Terrorism, Environmental Deforestation-induced landslides,
Induced degradation unplanned urbanization increasing flood
Hazard risk

2.3 Types of Natural Hazards in Nepal (Most Common)

• Earthquake: Nepal lies on the boundary of Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Gorkha EQ
2015 (7.8 Mw), Jajarkot 2023 (6.4 Mw)
• Floods & Flash Floods: Monsoon floods in Terai; flash floods in hilly rivers (Melamchi 2021,
Koshi 2008)
• Landslides: Very common in hills and mountains — Jure Landslide 2014 (blocked Sunkoshi
river)
• GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods): Increasing due to climate change; hundreds of glacial
lakes in Nepal Himalayas
• Droughts: Common in Karnali and far-western Nepal
• Avalanches: High Himalayas; danger to mountaineers and high-altitude villages
• Fire: Forest fires in dry season; urban fires due to poor infrastructure
 • Cold Wave & Heat Wave: Increasing with climate change
• Epidemics: Cholera, malaria, dengue — common post-disaster

3. RISK
3.1 Definition
Risk is the combination of the probability (likelihood) of a hazard occurring and the negative
consequences (potential losses) it may cause. Risk considers both HOW LIKELY a hazard is and
HOW BAD its impacts would be.

Risk = Probability of Hazard × Severity of Consequences

3.2 Types of Risk

• Residual Risk: The risk that remains even after all possible risk reduction measures have been
implemented. It cannot be fully eliminated — it can only be managed.
• Acceptable Risk: The level of potential losses that a society or community considers tolerable,
given existing conditions and constraints. Society accepts some level of risk (e.g., living near
rivers for agriculture).
• Extensive Risk: Widespread low-severity risk affecting large numbers of people (e.g., routine
annual flooding in Terai).
• Intensive Risk: Low-frequency but high-severity risk associated with major disasters (e.g.,
major earthquake).

3.3 Factors Affecting Risk Assessment

• Probability of occurrence: How likely is the hazard to occur?
• Vulnerability: How susceptible are people, property, or the environment?
• Exposure: What is the extent of exposure to the hazard?
• Consequences: What are the potential impacts on human life, property, or environment?

💡 EXAM TIP: Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability / Capacity. To REDUCE risk — reduce

vulnerability OR increase capacity (preparedness). This is the core logic of DRR.

4. VULNERABILITY
4.1 Definition
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system, community, or individual is susceptible to or unable to
cope with the adverse effects of a hazard. It is a measure of the potential for harm or loss associated
with a hazard.

Simple way to remember: Vulnerability = Weakness of people/community in facing a hazard.

4.2 Types of Vulnerability

• Physical Vulnerability: The degree of exposure and susceptibility to hazards, such as living in
hazard-prone areas or lacking adequate infrastructure. Examples: weak buildings, no EWS, no
evacuation routes.
• Social Vulnerability: Socio-economic factors like poverty, lack of education, and limited access
to resources that hinder preparedness and recovery. Examples: poor communities,
marginalized groups, no social networks.
 • Economic Vulnerability: Lack of financial resources, unstable livelihoods, dependence on
single income sources. Examples: farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture, no insurance, no
savings.
• Environmental Vulnerability: The sensitivity of ecosystems and natural resources to hazards.
Examples: deforestation causing landslides, coastal erosion, degraded watersheds.
• Institutional Vulnerability: Weak governance, corruption, poor planning, lack of disaster
policies. Examples: no building code enforcement, no land-use plan.

5. THREE DIMENSIONS OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

The manual identifies three key dimensions (factors) that must be assessed in DRM:

5.1 Physical Dimensions

Physical dimensions refer to the deaths, injuries, and damage to property and the built environment
caused by a disaster. The built environment includes infrastructure and service sectors.

Key Physical Infrastructure impacted during disasters:

• Transport system (land, sea, air): Essential for evacuation and bringing relief. If roads are cut
off, relief cannot reach victims. Multiple transport modes needed.
• Gas and oil storage and transportation: Needed for vehicles, helicopters for rescue. Extra fuel
needed during multi-day evacuation.
• Communication system: Information must flow before and during disaster so outside world
knows what is needed and can respond. Communication breakdown = coordination failure.
• Electricity, water supply, and public health: Basic services — immediately after disaster, great
need for water, sanitation, and healthcare. Disruption = disease outbreaks.

📍 Physical dimension = infrastructure damage. Always link to Nepal examples: roads

blocked in 2015 Gorkha EQ, Melamchi flood destroyed bridges, Jure landslide blocked
Sunkoshi river.

5.2 Social Dimensions

Social dimensions refer to the social impacts of disasters — who is affected, how they are affected,
and the vulnerabilities that different social groups face. The international community has identified
FIVE key vulnerable groups:

# Vulnerable Group Why Vulnerable? Special Care Needed

1 Elderly (60+) Impaired physical mobility; Special evacuation assistance;
diminished sensory awareness; mental health support; medical
pre-existing medical conditions; care; community check-ins
isolation; mental stress and
disorientation after disaster
2 Women & Children Women face risk of sexual assault, Safe shelters; gender-sensitive
domestic violence; increased relief; child protection; breast-
responsibilities; children lose feeding support; education
parental care, face violence, limited continuity
understanding of danger
3 People with Cannot perceive warning Inclusive early warning systems;
Disabilities (PWD) sirens/alerts (visual/hearing accessible shelters; special
impaired); additional requirements assistance to reach safe areas
beyond general population
4 Refugees & IDPs Internally displaced persons International protection; legal
 depend on in-country aid; refugees status; access to UNHCR
eligible for international aid; often assistance; IDP camps
impoverished; limited rights and
resources
5 Aid Workers & Unfamiliar with local environment; Security briefing; buddy system;
Foreign Volunteers risk of violence (especially female mental health support; awareness
workers); stress in disaster of local hazards
situations

💡 EXAM TIP: Exam loves asking 'who are most vulnerable?' → Always list: Elderly,
Women, Children, Disabled, IDPs/Refugees, Aid Workers. Then explain WHY each is
vulnerable (2–3 points per group gets full marks).

Other Social Issues During Disasters:

• Looting: Creates opportunities for criminal activity as buildings are evacuated and left
unattended. People may loot as self-preservation. Proper law enforcement and security forces
essential.
• Family Separation: During evacuation, families get separated — especially risky for women
and children who become isolated and vulnerable to violence.
• Psychological impacts: Trauma, anxiety, depression, PTSD — affect survivors long after the
physical disaster. Mental health services are needed.

5.3 Economic Dimensions

Economic dimensions refer to the direct and indirect financial losses caused by disasters. These can
vary greatly based on the nature/severity of the disaster, the level of preparedness, and the overall
economic strength of the affected area.

Direct Economic Impacts:

• Damage to infrastructure — roads, bridges, buildings, electricity, water systems
• Destruction of property — homes, businesses, industries
• Loss of agricultural land, crops, livestock
• Loss of inventory, raw materials, finished goods

Indirect & Long-term Economic Impacts:

• GDP loss — significant decline in Gross Domestic Product (e.g., Gorkha EQ 2015 cost Nepal
~$7 billion = 35% of GDP)
• Disruption of supply chains — affects trade, import/export
• Loss of productivity and income — unemployment increases
• Price inflation — prices of consumer goods increase due to disrupted market economies
• Increased debt — governments borrow to fund recovery and reconstruction
• Reduced tourism — Nepal's tourism industry severely impacted after Gorkha EQ
• Loss of human capital — loss of lives = loss of future labor force potential
• Educational disruption — children miss school; long-term human development impact

📊 Historical example from manual: Great Hanshin Earthquake, Japan (1995) caused $US
100 billion in damage = 2.1% of Japan's GDP. Use this if you need an international example
in answers.

🇳🇵 Nepal example: 2015 Gorkha Earthquake caused ~$7 billion in losses (~35% of GDP).
800,000 houses damaged/destroyed. Most economically devastating disaster in Nepal's
 history.

6. DISASTER AND EMERGENCY — TYPES AND LEVEL OF IMPACT

6.1 Definitions
• Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or society, causing widespread
human, material, economic or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of the affected
community to cope using its own resources.
• Emergency: A situation that threatens health, life, property, or the environment and requires
urgent intervention but may be managed within local capacity. Emergencies can escalate into
disasters.

Key Difference: Scale and capacity to cope.

Basis Disaster Emergency

Scale Large-scale; overwhelms community Small-to-medium scale; manageable
capacity locally
Response Needs national/international help Handled by local services (police,
fire, health)
Duration Long-lasting effects (months/years) Short-term; resolved in hours/days
Examples Gorkha EQ 2015, Koshi flood 2008 Road accident, house fire, minor
flood
Declaration Government declares Local authority response
disaster/emergency

6.2 Types of Disasters

Natural Disasters Human-Induced / Technological Disasters

• Geophysical: Earthquake, • Industrial: Factory explosion,
Volcanic eruption, Landslide, Chemical spill, Nuclear accident
Avalanche • Transport: Aircraft crash, Ship sinking,
• Hydrological: Flood, GLOF, Train accident
Tsunami, Coastal flooding • Structural: Building collapse, Dam
• Meteorological: Cyclone, Tornado, failure, Bridge collapse
Storm, Hailstorm • Environmental: Deforestation, Oil spill,
• Climatological: Drought, Heat Desertification
wave, Cold wave, Wildfire • Conflict: War, Civil unrest, Terrorism
• Biological: Epidemic, Pandemic,
Pest infestation

6.3 Level of Impact of Disasters

According to the manual, impacts of disasters manifest in several ways:

Level Type of Impact Examples

Primary Most visible and immediate impacts that Loss of lives; destruction/damage to
(Direct) occur during or right after disaster buildings, roads, bridges, livestock,
crops, raw materials
 Secondary Impacts beyond direct physical damage; Loss of income from damaged
occur in days/weeks after infrastructure; price inflation; disease
outbreaks; increased crime/looting;
public conflict
Tertiary Longer-term economic and GDP loss; decreased exports; increased
(Indirect) developmental consequences; months debt; unemployment; disrupted supply
to years chains; tourism decline
Psychologica Mental health impacts on survivors and Trauma, anxiety, depression, PTSD;
l responders affects recovery ability; requires mental
health services

💡 EXAM TIP: Impact levels to remember: PRIMARY (immediate) → SECONDARY (within

weeks) → TERTIARY (months/years) → PSYCHOLOGICAL. Always give examples for each
level in answers.

7. COPING CAPACITY AND RESILIENCE

7.1 Coping Capacity
Coping capacity is the ability of people, organizations, and systems (using available skills, resources,
and opportunities) to manage adverse conditions, emergencies, or disasters. High coping capacity =
lower risk even if hazard is same.

• Community coping capacity: Local knowledge, social networks, early warning systems,
stockpiled resources
• Institutional coping capacity: Government emergency plans, trained rescue teams, EOC,
budget for response
• Individual coping capacity: Personal savings, skills, physical fitness, awareness

7.2 Resilience
Resilience is the ability of a system, community, or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb,
accommodate, adapt to, and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner —
including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.

Simple: Resilience = ability to 'bounce back' or 'spring back' from a disaster.

Component Meaning Example in Nepal

Resistance Withstanding the initial impact Earthquake-resistant buildings
Absorption Absorbing the shock without total Community emergency funds,
disruption stockpiles
Adaptation Changing to cope better Building back better after 2015 EQ
Recovery Returning to normal (or better) NRA reconstruction program 2015–
functioning 2022

7.3 Element at Risk

Elements at risk are the population, properties, economic activities, including public services, or other
defined values exposed to hazards in a given area. Elements at risk include:
• People: Lives, health, livelihoods
• Property: Buildings, infrastructure, cultural heritage
• Economy: Industries, agriculture, trade, tourism
 • Environment: Forests, water bodies, biodiversity
• Social services: Schools, hospitals, government functions

8. ARE DISASTERS INCREASING WITH DEVELOPMENT?

This is a frequently asked question in exams. The answer is: YES, disasters are increasing due to
development patterns, and this creates a paradox.

How Development INCREASES Disaster Risk:

• Rapid urbanization in hazard-prone areas: Cities expanding into flood plains, earthquake
zones, steep hillsides
• Infrastructure increases exposure: More roads, buildings, and factories = more assets at risk
• Environmental degradation: Deforestation for development increases landslide and flood risk
• Climate change (linked to industrial development): Increases frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events
• Population growth in risky areas: More people living in coastal, riverine, mountainous areas
• Unplanned urbanization: Poor construction quality, no building codes, no land-use planning
• Industrial hazards: More industries = more risk of chemical, nuclear, and transport accidents

How Development Can REDUCE Disaster Risk (if done right):

• Better infrastructure: Strong buildings, flood control structures, early warning systems
• Better healthcare: Reduces death tolls from disease after disasters
• Better education and awareness: More prepared communities
• Economic growth: More resources available for disaster preparedness and recovery
• Technology: Remote sensing, GIS for hazard mapping; communication systems for early
warning

✅ Key message: Development itself does not cause disasters — UNPLANNED,

UNSUSTAINABLE development does. The solution is integrating DRR into all development
activities.

Bridging the Gap = Integrate DRR into Development + Community-based DRR

+ Strong Policies + Good Governance

9. PARTICIPATORY DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT (PDRA)

Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) is a community-based approach to identifying
hazards, vulnerabilities, and capacities by directly involving local communities in the assessment
process. It is based on the principle that communities themselves know their risks best.

Key Features of PDRA:

• Community-led: Local people are the primary assessors, not just external experts
• Inclusive: Includes women, elderly, disabled, minorities — not just local leaders
• Uses local knowledge: Maps local hazards, safe areas, seasonal patterns
• Tools used: Hazard maps, seasonal calendars, historical disaster timelines, focus group
discussions, transect walks
• Produces: Community Disaster Risk Management Plan (CDRMP)
• Bottom-up approach: Assessment findings flow upward to district and national planning
PDRA Process:
1. Preparation: Community entry, awareness, formation of community risk assessment team
2. Data collection: Hazard mapping, vulnerability analysis, capacity assessment
3. Analysis: Identifying priority risks and capacities
4. Planning: Community disaster risk management plan development
5. Implementation: Capacity building, local early warning, preparedness drills
6. Monitoring & evaluation: Regular review and updating of plans

10. PAST EXAM QUESTIONS WITH SOLUTIONS

Past Q (2082 Back): Do you agree with the statement 'Disasters are increasing with
development'? How can we bridge the gap between disaster risk and development? [6]

Answer Framework (6 marks):

Introduction (1 mark): Yes, disasters are increasing with certain types of development — specifically
unplanned, unsustainable development that ignores disaster risk.
Why disasters increase with development (2 marks): Write 5 points from Section 8 — urbanization in
hazard zones, environmental degradation, industrial hazards, climate change, population growth in
risky areas.
How to bridge the gap (3 marks):
• Mainstream DRR into development planning at all levels
• Enforce land-use planning and zoning — no construction in flood plains or high-risk zones
• Enforce building codes (Nepal Building Code — NBC) for earthquake and flood resilience
• Community-based DRR: PDRA, community disaster plans, local EWS
• Environmental conservation: Reforestation, watershed management to reduce landslide/flood
risk
• Climate change adaptation: Integrate climate risk into infrastructure design
• Sendai Framework Priority 3: Investing in DRR for resilience
• Strong governance and policy: DRR Act 2017, NSDRMN, DRRAP

Past Q (2081 Regular): What do you understand by vulnerability and risk? Explain with
suitable examples. [5]

Answer:
Vulnerability (2 marks): Definition from Section 4.1 + 4 types (Physical, Social, Economic,
Environmental) + Nepal example: Poor construction quality in rural areas = high physical vulnerability
to earthquakes.
Risk (2 marks): Definition from Section 3.1 + formula (Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability / Capacity) +
example: Kathmandu Valley has high seismic hazard + high physical/social vulnerability = VERY
HIGH earthquake risk. But Japan has similar hazard with low vulnerability = lower risk.
Connection (1 mark): Risk = f(Hazard, Vulnerability, Capacity). To reduce risk → reduce vulnerability
and/or increase capacity/preparedness.

Past Q (2080/2079 Regular): What do you mean by Physical, Social and Economic factor
(Dimensions) in disaster risk management? [8–10]
Answer Framework: Write all 3 dimensions from Sections 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 in detail.
Physical Dimension (3 marks): Definition + 4 infrastructure types (Transport, Communication, Gas/Oil,
Electricity/Water) with why each matters during disaster.
Social Dimension (4 marks): Definition + 5 vulnerable groups table with why each is vulnerable +
special care.
Economic Dimension (3 marks): Definition + direct impacts (infrastructure damage, crop loss) +
indirect impacts (GDP loss, inflation, unemployment, tourism decline) + Nepal example (2015 EQ = $7
billion loss).

Past Q (2078 Regular): What do you understand by the vulnerability? Describe different
types of vulnerability with illustrations. [8]

Answer: Write definition + 5 types of vulnerability with Nepal-specific examples:

• Physical: Poor building quality in rural Nepal → high vulnerability to EQ
• Social: Low literacy in far-western Nepal → cannot read EWS warnings
• Economic: Subsistence farmers in Terai → crops destroyed by flood = total income loss
• Environmental: Deforested Chure hills → increased landslide and flood risk
• Institutional: Weak enforcement of building codes → dangerous constructions proliferate

Past Q (2077/2073 Regular): Elderly people, Disabled people, Women and Children are most
vulnerable groups during any disaster. Justify your answer ensuring securities of them.
[10]

Answer Framework: For each group, explain (a) WHY vulnerable and (b) HOW to protect them.
Use the vulnerable groups table from Section 5.2 — write 3–4 points for WHY each group is
vulnerable, then 3–4 protective measures. The question specifically mentions 4 groups so write equal
detail for each.
Conclusion: Disaster preparedness must be inclusive — gender-sensitive, disability-inclusive, age-
friendly. All shelter facilities, EWS, evacuation plans must consider these groups.

Past Q (Multiple years): Differentiate Hazard and Disaster with examples. [4–6]

Basis Hazard Disaster

Definition A potentially damaging physical A serious disruption of community
event or condition that may cause functioning causing widespread
loss of life or injury, property losses that exceed the ability of the
damage, social disruption, or affected community to cope
environmental degradation
Nature Potential threat — may or may not Actual event — has already occurred
occur
Example in Nepal Earthquake fault lines under 2015 Gorkha Earthquake (7.8 Mw)
Kathmandu
Formula Hazard is an INPUT into risk Disaster = Hazard × Vulnerability
(when it exceeds coping capacity)
Control Hazard itself cannot be eliminated Disaster impact CAN be reduced
(natural) through DRR

Hazard → becomes Disaster ONLY when it meets Vulnerable People with Low
 Coping Capacity

11. PROBABLE QUESTIONS FOR 2082/2083 EXAM

Probable Q 1: Define disaster, risk and vulnerability with suitable examples. Explain this
equation: 'Disaster = Natural Hazard × Vulnerability' [6]

Answer hint: Definitions of all 3 (2 marks) → Formula explanation (2 marks) → Example: Kathmandu
Valley (high hazard + high vulnerability = disaster-prone) vs. Norway (similar hazard but low
vulnerability = less disaster) (2 marks).

Probable Q 2: Discuss about social, physical and economic dimensions in the context of
hazard, risk and vulnerability. [10]

Answer hint: This is a 10-mark question — write at least 4 pages. Use all content from Section 5.
Physical = infrastructure (4 types). Social = 5 vulnerable groups. Economic = direct + indirect impacts
with Nepal example.

Probable Q 3: Who are most vulnerable people during disaster and what is the level of
impact? How do you take care of them during disaster? [5]

Answer hint: 5 vulnerable groups (3 marks) + level of impact (primary/secondary/tertiary/psychological)

(1 mark) + care measures (1 mark).

Probable Q 4: What are the main factors that should be considered while assessing the
vulnerability of any upcoming disaster? [8]

Answer hint: Physical factors (building quality, location, infrastructure), Social factors (poverty,
education, social networks, governance), Economic factors (income level, livelihoods, savings),
Environmental factors (ecosystem health, deforestation, land use). Write 3–4 points per factor
category.

Probable Q 5 (Short note): Write short notes on: (a) Residual Risk (b) Resilience (c)
Coping Capacity (d) Element at Risk [4 marks each]

Answer hints:
• Residual Risk: Risk remaining after all DRR measures — cannot be eliminated fully — must be
managed through emergency planning and insurance
• Resilience: Ability to bounce back — 4 components: Resist, Absorb, Adapt, Recover —
example: NRA's Build Back Better after 2015 EQ
• Coping Capacity: Skills, resources, opportunities to manage adverse conditions — individual,
community, institutional levels — high coping capacity = lower disaster impact
• Element at Risk: People, property, economy, environment, social services exposed to hazards

12. QUICK REVISION CARD

⚡ QUICK REVISION — KEY FACTS
• Disaster = Natural Hazard × Vulnerability
• Risk = (Hazard × Vulnerability) / Capacity
• 3 Dimensions: Physical (infrastructure), Social (vulnerable groups), Economic (GDP
loss)
• 5 Vulnerable Groups: Elderly, Women & Children, Disabled, IDPs/Refugees, Aid
Workers
• 4 Types of Vulnerability: Physical, Social, Economic, Environmental
• 4 Levels of Impact: Primary (direct) → Secondary → Tertiary → Psychological
• Nepal ranks: 11th EQ risk, 30th flood risk (World Risk Index 2022), 4th climate
vulnerability (BCPR)
• 2015 Gorkha EQ: 7.8 Mw, April 25 — economic loss ~$7 billion = ~35% of GDP
• Residual risk = risk that remains even after all DRR measures are taken
• Resilience = ability to resist, absorb, adapt, and recover from disasters
• PDRA = Participatory Disaster Risk Assessment — community-led, bottom-up,
inclusive
• Disasters ≠ Acts of God — they result from unplanned development + poor governance

Best of luck for your exams! Study Smart & Stay Safe. 🎓