Climate Change: Pakistan-Focused Outline
(with International Comparison)
Types/Causes
Natural causes: solar variation, volcanic activity (minor contributors)
Anthropogenic causes: fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, industrial emissions — the
dominant driver per IPCC consensus
Mitigation (reducing emissions) vs Adaptation (adjusting to unavoidable impacts) —
Pakistan's own policy critique centers on this exact distinction
Base/Theoretical Foundation
Greenhouse effect: trapped heat from GHG emissions (CO2, methane) raising global
temperatures
IPCC framework: scientific consensus body underpinning UNFCCC, Paris Agreement,
COP negotiations
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR): principle that high emitters bear
greater responsibility — central to Pakistan's climate justice argument
Dimensions
Economic Dimension
Pakistan contributes only 0.8-0.9% of global emissions (~400-500 million tonnes
CO2e/year) yet ranks among the most affected nations
2022 floods: $30 billion in losses, 33 million people affected
2025 floods: Rs822 billion (~$2.9 billion) in losses, 1,000+ deaths, 3.5 million displaced
Pakistan needs ~$565.7 billion in climate investment by 2035 (Economic Survey
estimate) — current budget allocation (~Rs690bn for 2026-27) falls far short
Agriculture (23.5% of GDP, 37% of labor force) directly exposed to heat stress and
erratic rainfall
Political/Legal Dimension
CCPI 2026: Pakistan ranks 15th (improved from 31st in 2025), but scores "very low" on
renewable energy adoption and "low" on climate policy — a ranking gain doesn't mean
policy strength
ND-GAIN Index: Pakistan ranks 150th in readiness, 146th in vulnerability — reflects
both high exposure and low capacity to respond
National Climate Change Policy (2021), National Adaptation Plan (2023), NDC 3.0 (Sept
2025) — Pakistan's formal policy architecture exists
Post-2022 flood pledges: $10 billion promised internationally, only a fraction
materialized by 2025 (UN OCHA) — same implementation-failure pattern as your other
essays
Social/Water Dimension (Pakistan's most distinctive angle)
Pakistan shifting from "water-stressed" to "water-scarce" — per capita availability
projected to fall to ~860 cubic meters
Indus Basin aquifer ranked world's 2nd-most-overstressed by NASA (2015); groundwater
in Punjab dropping up to 1 meter/year
Pakistan's National Water Security Index improved only 6.4 points (2013-2025) — far
behind India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka
Karachi's urban drainage score fell to zero — chronic flooding from unplanned
expansion, not just rainfall volume
Environmental/Health Dimension
Almost 10,000 glaciers in Pakistan's north have receded in recent years (UNDP)
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) now a recurring, named risk category in Gilgit-
Baltistan and KP
Air pollution/smog from transport, industry, and agriculture disrupts aviation and causes
respiratory illness — only 14% of the population has access to WHO-safe air quality
(IQAir 2025)
Rising sea levels and saline intrusion damaging Indus Delta mangroves, fisheries, and
agriculture
Advantages (of climate action / renewable transition)
Pakistan imported 17 GW of solar power systems in 2024 — more than double the
previous year, making it the world's third-largest solar panel importer
Installed solar capacity now ~47 GW with over $10 billion invested — shows real
market-driven momentum independent of government policy
New Green Taxonomy approved, National Climate Change Finance Strategy in
preparation
Disadvantages/Challenges
Renewable growth is largely informal/consumer-driven (household solar), not matched
by grid-level policy or storage infrastructure
Institutional capacity gap: World Bank cited "governance risks" for delays in Sindh
Resilience Project (only half its sub-schemes completed years past deadline)
Karachi's K-IV water scheme: launched early 2000s, still only 60-65% complete as of
2025, costs escalating
Consequences
Farmers repeatedly selling remaining assets after each flood cycle (2022, then again
2025) — no capital left to recover a third time
Transboundary water tension: India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (April 2025)
compounded domestic water stress with a diplomatic crisis in the same year
Climate-induced migration and food security risk rising in parallel with water scarcity
Case Studies
National (Dawn-sourced):
2025 monsoon floods: displaced 3.5 million people, left 1.6 million at risk in Sindh
alone; Punjab's Chakwal district received 400mm of rain in 10 hours; Sialkot broke a 49-
year rainfall record
Gilgit-Baltistan glacier crisis: heatwave-driven glacial melt caused sudden flooding,
cutting off valleys and damaging infrastructure — a case Dawn explicitly frames as
showing "when vulnerability is ignored... disasters return, even if rainfall doesn't"
International:
COP30, Belém, Brazil (Nov 2025): adopted the Belém Political Package — launched a
Global Implementation Accelerator, called to triple adaptation finance by 2035,
operationalized the Loss and Damage Fund with an initial $250 million allocation
Comparison point: despite Pakistan's repeated advocacy since COP27 (2022), COP28
and COP29 failed to deliver meaningful climate finance for Pakistan specifically —
showing a persistent gap between global rhetoric and delivered funding, useful for your
"way forward" section
Quotable Line (use sparingly)
Pakistan's core climate-justice argument, safe to paraphrase: the country produces less
than 1% of global emissions yet ranks among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable nations
— this asymmetry, not eloquence, is Pakistan's real rhetorical strength at COP forums;
state it as fact rather than reaching for a dramatic quote
Way Forward (brief — expand later if needed)
Shift budget composition from emissions-mitigation subsidies toward adaptation (flood
defense, drainage, water management) — Dawn's own analysis flags this imbalance
Fix project implementation capacity (Sindh Resilience Project, K-IV) before committing
to new large-scale schemes
Push COP30's Loss and Damage Fund disbursement mechanisms harder, given
COP28/29's failure to deliver for Pakistan specifically
International comparison for structural reference: Bangladesh's community-based early-
warning systems (cyclone shelters, localized alerts) offer a lower-cost adaptation model
more suited to Pakistan's rural exposure than infrastructure-heavy approaches alone