TOPICS COVERED

Conditional Probability
Total Probability Theorem
Baye's Theorem

Conditional Probability
One bag is selected at random and one bal1 is
drawn from the bag and it is red in colour. A B

Red Bau

4 3R

Plals)
A awn B
P(A) ob g
P(ela)
frob gvon A
Pabrd ba Po Red baug
ven Hse han eot by B
s Seled
beg s Sdede

Conditional Probability
Probabilityof event A given that event B has already occurred
AIPPANB)) n(A NB)
n(B)
aven
Probability of event B given that event A has already occurred
SPCA NB) n{A n B)
PBIA) A)n(A)
PMAl)=P[) Male)-Plane)
ven
Multiplication Theorem of Probability
P(An B) = P{A) x P(B|A) = P{B) x P(A|B)
P). PA)
Plons)- P(Ak) Pe)
Plna)- P(BAP)
Types of Events
(a)MutuallyExclusive Events (A nB) =¢ P(mB) =

b) Exhaustive Events-> (A u B) =Sor(A UB uC) =S -P(nyBur)=

()IndependentEvents PAnB)=P(A). P(B) 3
| (d) Complement Event (or Not Event) > P(not A) = 1 - P(A)

AUA =

B4Pame,ole
Pocs.o
BnA 20

ls)-36
A pair ofdiceisrolled. Find the probability of getting
Asum of7given that aprime number on either dice occurred Plal)
II. a pair of primes given that sum of 7 is occurred. P(BIA)
A- 16,25,34,43,52,61? B-22,23,25
32,33,35
A:-A sum
B-Pome No. on efa dua
52, $3,SS
An 25,52
PalE)-PPle) Pen)-Plans) P(a)-nn
n(s
PA)
36

/36 36 36

nls)-34
A pair of dice is rolled. Find the probability of getting
A sumof7 given that a prime number on eitherdice occurred PA|)
I1. a pair of primes given that sum of 7 is occurred. P( B|A)

A- 3,4361} B-S22,2397 A:- A sum

32,33,3S
B- Pome No on eta dia
3,5

ven

Agon

02 Pns)-t[4b)r[o)- }%4 P(8):1-P 3

For two events, Aand B, it is giventhatPA)= 3/5 PB)=3/10and PALE)-2/3.)
If A and B are the complementary events of A and B then PA|B) equal to?

Plals- P(an8 plale)= P(arR Je-Movgans lan

P(3)
P(B)
PAUB (Au8)- ang
e)
Pe)- (An3)-Avg
= -P{Aue)
P(B) PB)= 1-P(8
-TrA-P0)-Pfee) =- -3
-P() 10 1
Total Probability
A B
B
A
B P{R«a baus)=

ea)-

(Royal - U

Ret

Pele.). Rle&)= PRA)

Total Probability
Let S be the sample space and let E Ez, ..E be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive
events associated with an experiment. IfA is any event which occurs with each event
E, E2,..E then we can say that:

P(A)=P(AIE,)P(E,) + PAIE)P(E2) ++ P(A|E,)P(E,))

03
There are 3 identical urns A, B and C. Urn A contains 3 red balls and 5 black balls,
urn B contains 4 red balls and 4 black balls and urn C contains 5 red balls and 3
black balls. An urn is chosen at random and a ballis drawn from the chosen urn.

What isthe probability of drawnballi_black?

P(A) P()-4 PC)=
PelA)Plei)Pele)- A

E: Black bal! is dra»n

04
There are three coins, one is fair coin and one is biased coin in which heads
comes up60% timesand the last is also biased coin in whichheadJcomes with
75% times) One of the coins is chosen at random and tossed. What is the
probability of getting atails?

PG) PC)- Pa)*5

25

- 0+345
60

Bayes Theorem
A B
B
(Rc)guen
A One ball s
transjerred
B
One bal is drawn fam B

nd it wa Red.
hat is pmb
O tunterd boi is R
tranered Bu is B

Red bau is tranejarte

R tserere
B,: B l bodis
YR
end drao
bau dronsn
is
in

RRed 3B

P(R,)=P(s,)-
O PO R.)-?
P{RIa.) - PR)xPRlR) rola)-?
PIR)&P(R.l8)}+ Pl8)»r([Link].)

K,: Red bau is tranggartal

6lue boua is terarte
drausn ir end drauo
Ked ba is

OP la.)-2
rlal.)
P E)
 K,: Red batl is tranter 1 Re
Blus bod 's 1serer

Ked bau is dtonn in ind drand .

K 38

PR) P(E.)| 48
P,1)-P|)
OPh.)-2
O r(al)-2
P{Rlea)
16+9

Baye's Theorem
Let S be the sample space and let E, Ez..E be n mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events associated With a random experiment. If A is
any event which occurs with E, or E, or ... or E, then probability of
occurrence of E, when A occurred

P(E;IA)
P(AIE)P(E)
p(AIE, )P(E,) + P(A|E,)P(E)++P(A|E,)P(En)
where i = 1,2,3,4... n

05
There are 3 identical urns A, B and C. Urn A contains 3 red balls and 5 black balls, urn
B contains 4 red balls and 4 black balls and urn C contains 5 red balls and 3 black
balls. An urn is chosen at random anda black ballis drawnJrom the chosen urn. What
is the probability that it is drawn from: 8ven
() Bag A, (11) Bag B and ( ) Bag C?

PP)4 P(®) PCO) This sho

Pala) l)=
pr Boyisho.) E: Block ba is droion

rai) 5+4+3 12

3el)
There are threecoins, one is fair coin and one is biased coin in which heads comes u
60% times and the last is also biased coin in which head comeswith 75% times. One
of the coins is chosen at random and tossed Itshows heads) What is the probability
that: (a) Ist coin was tossed, (b) 2nd coin was tossed, and (c) 3rd coin was tossed?

| PC) P(G)= P%) =

PHe) P(ulcd)Pllo)- S

0412418
r(clw)=2
(0+12+1S
12

04|241S

52 5
25Y3 7S 2.S7 10
25 |25
O6
There are threecoins, one is fair coin and one is biased coin in which heads comes up
60% times and the last is also biased coin in which head comes with 75% times. One
of the coins is chosen at random and tossed It shows heads What is the probability
that: (a) Ist coin was tossed, (b) 2nd coin was tossed, and (c) 3rd coin was tossed?

Pe)Pa)PG)=
Pal)- P(alca)-P(u|a)-*| 2

4124I 37

12
0+2tI37

104|241S39

2572 =5
2573-7S 2S7u -10 257s -n5
07
Suppose a factory has three machines to produce safety pins. Machine A, B and C
produces 30%, 40% and 30 % of the total production respectively. Also, Machine A, B
and C produces 5%, 10% and 12.5% defective items respectively. A sample was
chosen at random from the production and it was found to be defective. What is the
probability thatit was produced by
O Machine A? (11) Machine B? (II) Machine C?

PA)- P(9)-4e Pl)-

|Pdl)= P(ols)-P(ol<)-T
PAD)= AI6 4S
PelD) g,AT
P(cld)-
 Probability
1. If E and Fare independent events, then F 3) P(AIAUB)-
4) P(ANBIAUB)=0
(1) 1-P (2)
Two events A and B are such that P{not B) = 0.8,
3) PE) (4) 1-PP) P(AUB)=0.5 and PA | B) = 0.4. Then PA) is
cqual to
2. If A and B are events such that PlA U B) = 0.5,

(1) 0.28 0.32

PB)-08and P=04, then what is PA n
(3) 0.38 4) None of the above
cqual to?
() 0.08 0.02 A and B are two events such that A and B are
(3) 0.8 4) 0.2 mutually exclusive. f PlA) = 0.5 and P\B) = 0.6, then
what is the vahue of PlA |B)?
3. It is given that the events A and B are such that
(2
4)
5
(1) 2)
uACB, then which one of the following is not
4)
coect
0) PAnB)-0
Given t
PAIB)-4)
P(B)
what is Pequal to? 3) PLBIA)PLA
A)
(2)
4)P(AI(AUB)-"A
P(B)
(3) 4)
10. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers
appearing is observed to be 7. What is the conditional
5. Given thutl P(4)=. P(B)=und P(AuB)= probability that the mumber 2 has appeared at least
once
then what is
P () (2)

(2) (4)
6

(3) 4) I1. If two dice are rolled simultaneously then what is the
probability that the total of two dice is greater than 9
given that the number on the first die is 5?
I f A nd B are two independent cvents such that
P(A)= and P(B)=. then which is NOT true? () (2)
2
() P(AUB)= (3) (4)

(2) P(A|B)=;

12. The chances of a defective screw in three boxes A, B. red, then the probability that the missing card is black
Care 1/5, 1/6 and 1i respectively. A bo IS selected

at random and a screwdrawn trom

the the
selected boN I5
probability that i
Find (2)
n Dacective.
a n n e irom DOx A.

(1) (2) 41 (3) 4)

T
(3) ) 3 19. A. B, C shoot to hit a target. If A hits the target 4 out
T07 107 of 5 trials, B hits it 3 out of 4 trials and C hits it 2 out
of 3 trials, what is the probability that the target is hit
13. A letter Is known to have come either irom
by at least 2 persons?
TATANAGAR and CALCUTLA. On necnve

has come fr OE
ne
(1)
ne letter
a t the
probability that ie 15
() Calcutta (i) TatanagarrOm
47 3 10
4)
11'T
(4) None of these 20. An aircraft has three engines A, B and C. The aircraft
crashes if all the three engines fail. The probabilities
4. A speaks truth in 759% cases and B in 80% cases. In of failure are 0.03. 0.02 and 0.05 for engines A, B and
what percentage of cases are they hkely to contradict C respectively. What is the probabilty that the
each other? aircraft will not crash
() 0.00003 90
(1) 5% 25 % (2)
(4) 0.90307
(3) 35 % 45 % 3) 0.99997
15. There are 3 bags each containing 5 white balls and3 . n an oftce three-teamA, B, Cprogrammed

Dack balls. AIso. tnere are2 [Link] 2 roiction ive 0 heir renedive utats
y that this white ball is rOm a 6%, 8% and 8% are crrors. A program is drawn at
pro
bag of the firstgroup random from the total product and it is found to be
45 defective. What is the probability that it was
(1) programmed by teamC?
40

(3) 4) None of the above ( (2)

S0
9
3 4)
16. An insurance company insured 2000 light vehicle 50
drivers, 400 medhum vehicie drivers and G0 heavy 22. In a school there are 40% science students and the
ident are 0.01. 003 and 0.15 respectively. If one of remaining 60% are arts students. It is known that 5%
the insured drivers meets with an accident what is the o the science students are giris and T o the arts

probability that he/she was a medium vehicle driver. students are girls. One student selected at random is a
girl. What is the probability that she is an arts
(1 2 52 student?

(1) (2)
(3) 4)
26
(3) (4)
17.
Aprabem in ss i n e indenendenty are
I/2. 1/3 and 1/4 respectively. The probability that the 23. In a school, 5% of the boys and 10% of the girs are
problem will be solved is. day scholars and rest stay in hostels. If 60% of the
students are boys. lf a student is selected at random
()
12 2 12
and found to be a day scholar, then the probability
that the student is a boy, Is
(3) 4) (d) (2)
2 4

18. A
packot playing13 cardswaswhich aretoexamincaonly
Cards. 1 arc
3 12
24. A machine has three parts, A, B and C whose chances unseen in the second bug. What is the probability that
of and a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
being defective, are 0.02, 0.10 0.05
respectively. The machine stops working it any one o 5
the parts becomes defective. what is the probabilityy (1) (2)
that the machine will not stop working?
56 56
O.06 (2) 0.16 (3) 4)
0.84 (4) 0.94
25. One bag contains5 white balls and 3 black balls anda
second bag contains 2 white balls and 4 black balls.
One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed

Answer Key
1. 14.
(5)
2. 15. ()
()
3. 16.
4)
17. (4)

5.
18. (
(3)
. (B) 19. 4)

.
20. 3)
J)
8. (2) 21. ( 4)

.
22. 2)
)
23. 2)
10. (1)
11. 24. 3)
1)
12. (3) 5 2)
13. C
 PnF)= P(E)P(E)
IfE and F are independent events, then P () =?

O1-P9 P(lE) - PEOF) 1-P(EUF)

PCF) -PCE)
1-P)
P 1-P(E) =I-Pe)+P(F)-Ple)Ple)_
-P(E)
41-P(F) -PED)LP(E)
= I -P(e)

Pa) = o 2
I fA and B are events such that P(A UB) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.8 and P()= 0.4, then
what is P(AN B) equal to?

P(AlB) = o 4 P(Ano)
0.08
PlAne) =oy = 0.08

0.02

0.8

03
t is given that the events A and B are such that P(4) = . P ) = and P(B) = ?

thenPis
P(a) P(ola) = P(B) P{ale8)
2/3

1/9
xPlola) **3
PColA)
1/6

8/9

04
Given that PA) = P(B) =P)=then what is P (G) equal to?

1/4 P(a) P(alA) = P(B) e(ala)

1/9
3/4
Plola)
1/2
05
Given that PA) = P(B)=|and P(A U B) =then what is P ()?

P(an8) = P(A) +P(6) - P{ave)

1/6
L
12
4/9 4+9
Plane) 12
1/2
4 1/3 P(alA) =P(ana)
Pla)

PlAne) P(a)P(B) -x
I fA and B are two independent events such that P(A) = ; and P(B) = then
which is NOT true?

P(AUB) = Plnue)=-
2 PAIB) = rlale)
P(A IAUB) = P(olaus) = PAn (nve) Pla)
P(AUB) P(AvB)
P(AOBIA'UB') =0
(Ane Ans ) =
P(an)n (ane))
P(Ane)

07 P(B) = o 2
Two events A and B are such that P( not B) = 0.8, P(A U B) = 0.5 and P(A | B) = 04.
Then P(A) is equal to

P(AlB) = oy P(aue) PlA)+P(a) - Plana)

0.28

2 0.32
0s
P(A) +o2 0 o8
-

P(B) P[A) = 0 39
P(AnB) = 0.08
30.38
4 None of the above

08
A and B are two events such that and B are mutually exclusive. If P(A) = 0.5 and
P(B) = 0.6, then what is the value of P(A I B)?

P ( a n E ) -o I - P(AuB) = o P(AUB) = I
1/5

/6 P(Ane) = P)+Ple) - P(avB)

0S + 6-
2/5
P{nnB = 0

1 1/5
P(nla)-Plana)
Pla)
If ACB, then which one of the following is not correct?
O
P[An) PlA)- P(anB)
P(AnB) = 0 PLA)- P(a) = o

O PAIB) =PA
P(B)
PlalB) = P{Ane) PLA
P(B) Ple)
0P(B IA) P(B) Plbla) = PlAna),
PLA ACB
PLA) S Ane = A
P(A) :
P(AI (A UB)) P(B) =
|Au8

n s) = 36
Q1D
A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 7.
What is the conditional probability that the number 2 has appeared at least once?
/3
A Sum to be B: 2 appeare ak laast on.

A-16,25,34,13,S2, ci 8 21, 22, 23,24,2s,24

2/7
62, S2, 42, 32, 12

63/5
4 1/6

011 n(s) 3
If two dice are rolled simultaneously then what is the probability that the total of two
dice is greater than 9 given that the number on the first die is 5 ?

1/3
To tal is greates tha 4 Ae46, ss, 61,56, us, 66
B 5 on dirst d B- 5), sa S3, sy 3 s f
1/2

1/4 P(ale)-
41/6

012
The chances of a defective screw in three boxes A, B, C are 1/5, 1/6 and 1/7
respectively. A box is selected at random and a screw drawn from the selected box is
found to be defective. Find the probability that it came from box A.

P) P(a) - P(c)
40/107
(ola)=a
&
P[ols) =25 P(ple)= o

41/107

12/107
x42 42
4 43/107 P(alo) y2+3S+30
y2
Ixy2 + \x3S +1x30
D13 (TAT)M, NA AG 4AAR fCA,ALLL, Cw, UT, TT, TA J
A letter is known to have come either from TATANAGAR and CALCUTTA. On the
envelope just two consecutive letters TA are visible. The probability that the letter
has come from
()Calcutta, (i) Tatanagar
E
led ham Tatamasp Elede bom Caleulta
TA is visibl
4
7
11'11 PE)=
1,1 lol-) Pela-)=
None of these

PF) x]+1x1
P1F)-1-P(a)

Q14
A speaks truth in 75% cases and B in 80% cases. In what percentage of cases are
they likely to contradict each other?

5% Pla)= Pe)= S

25% P(a)= P(8)

35% Plontkadue) Pla) P(B) + P[A)Pla)
45%

26 35 1

O15
There are 3 bags each containing 5 white balls and 3 black balls. Also, there are 2 bags
each containing 2 white balls and 4 black balls. A white ball is drawn at random. The
probability that this white ball is from a bag of the first group.

45/16 Bag bwm amep s sokeked

Abom amp2 is aclese I
45/40 Aite ball s draun

45/51 PCG)- Pl4»)=

- s Pls]4)
-
P(»]4)
None
ofthe above

rhla) 3x1S
3xF2X8
S
YS Flb

Q16
An insurance company insured 2000 light vehicle drivers, 4000 medium vehicle
drivers and 6000 heávy vehicle drivers. The probability of them meeting an accident A
are 0.01,0.03 and 0.15 respectively. Ifone of the insured drivers meets with an accident
what is the probability that he/she was a medium vehicle driver.

26
P(L) P(on) = P(H) = keoo*
Hovo

P(a) elaln)= Lo
P(al") =

r-l) 243

Ix)+2x3+ 3 XIS 52 26
017
A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B and C whose changes of solving it
independently are 1/2,1/3 and 1/4 respectively. The probability that the problem will
be solved is.

PlA)
P) P(B)-}
12
P() P(T)
P ( Net Solved)
P (?rbkmis saad )- P( P(B) P(E)

018
A pack of playing cards was found to contain only 51 cards. If the first 13 cards
which are examined are all red, then the probability that the missing card is black
is

(R)- red 25A

26

iPla.14) - 524 R
Black 28
25 C13
241
S1C13 x 2 3 13)
I+2

B12) 13
Q19
A, B,C shoot to hit a target. If A hits the target 4 out of 5 trials, B hits it 3 out of 4 trials
and C hits it 2 out of 3 trials, what is the probability that the target is hit by at least 2
persons?

P(a) =1 P{a)=g
1/5
2/15
P(a) =P(E)=
l c ) =P ( a ) =

1/10
P(aaT) + P(as) +P ( Be) +
f{nse)
Platlenst 2 pron)
s/6

020
An aircraft has three engines A, B and C. The aircraft crashes if all the three engines
fail. The probabilities of failure are 0.03,0.02 and 0.05 for engines A, B and C
respectively. What is the probability that the aircraft will not crash?

0.00003 0.90 P(A) = o-o3 PA= oA7

1 f(B) = 0 02 P(B)Á4s
P(C) = [Link] P(EY>N4s
4 0.90307
0.99997

P Not cwas h) I-(n)r(o) PC)

o 03 x o-02 x o.0S

0-o000 3
0.99917
021
In an office, three-team A,B, C programmed particular projects 40%, 50% and 45%
of the total production respectively. Of their respective outputs 6%, 8% and 8% are
errors. A program is drawn at random from the total product and it is found to be
defective. What is the probability that it was programmed by team C?

Pl8)=se
Pa) «Joor P(- s
50
Pkla) Je
P(la)1 rlele) =*"

(cle) =
4+10+36 2S

022
In a school there are 40% science students and the remaining 60% are arts students.
It is known that 5% of the science students are girls and 10% of the arts students
are girls. One student selected at random isa girl. What is the probability that she is
an arts student?

Pe)-Pla)=Pla) ka =

GPl)- ()-
lals) a+6

23
In a school, 5% of the boys and 10% of the girls are day scholars and rest stay in
hostels. If 60% of the students are boys. If a student is selected at random and found
to be a day scholar, then the probability that the studentis a boy, is

MB)= PG) =se* PCalo) =

3/5
3+
Pols) = PDl4)= Jed
2 3/7

5/12

4 3/4

024
A machine has three parts, A, B and C whose chances of being defective are 0.02,0.10
and 0.05 respectively. The machine stops working if any one of the_parts becomes
defective. What is the probability that the machine will not stop working?

P(A) = o.02 P(A) o.48

0.06
P(8) = 0 10
P(E) = o 9

2
0.16 P(c) = o-OS
P(E) =
o 45

G084 P(macine not stp i P(R)P(G) Pa)

0.94
0 98 Xp4xo 9s
0-8319
025
One bag contains 5 white balls and 3 black balls and a second bag contains 2 white balls
and 4 black balls. One ball is drawn from the first b and placed unseen in the second
bag. What is the probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?

56
50
w
P(a)P(8,)- 240
35
56
38 "(|4)= P(lB)=
37
56 IL